Ike Davis?

[cmb0252]

From mlbtraderumors.com:

Joel Sherman of the New York Post also examines Davis' situation, noting that there's risk in trading Davis, as his current career numbers aren't that dissimilar from those of Chris Davis through his age-26 season (Chris had slightly better power numbers but played in more hitter-friendly settings). Sherman wonders if the Mets might consider swapping him for another buy-low candidate like Jeremy Hellickson and notes that teams like the Rays, Twins, Marlins and Brewers could all be intrigued by Davis.

 

The site also links to a Peter Gammons article that looks at Davis career path and "questions whether he's worth the raise he's due on his $3MM salary via arbitration."

 

Personally, depending on the price tag, I think Davis could be a perfect buy low for the Twins. While Davis started the year horrid In his 138 ABs after the All Star break he was hit .285 With a 954 OPS and over doubled his BB%. 138 ABs is a small sample size and add in Davis is out the rest of the year with an oblique strain but I think it would be worth the risk.

 

Link:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/new-york-notes-davis-hughes-rivera.html

[Rosterman]

Too expensive at the moment. If he is released and can be signed for...whatever, maybe a good gamble. But the strikeouts...though fitting with the current roster makeup...are just too much. Collabello is cheaper, and Parmelee has just as much promise.

[nicksaviking]

The strikeouts don't bother me too terribly as he is pretty good at taking walks. In the past he's a pretty decent OBP guy.

 

Of course the strikeouts are going to bother Gardy/Ryan. I believe Davis is a guy who hits to all fields so he's probably a guy the Twins would like in that regard. Though who knows, maybe hitting to all fields is a contributing factor to his struggles.

 

Comparing him to Chris Davis isn't going to make him easier to get though.

[DaveW]

People need to remember that Chris Davis was the exception...not the rule

[PseudoSABR]

It does make some sense. Especially if they've given up on Parmelee being a regular.

[TheLeviathan]

People need to remember that Chris Davis was the exception...not the rule

 

Not much of anything in baseball is a "rule" insofar as adding talent. We have ample opportunity - I say take a shot at it.

 

But it's important to note - Chris Davis was crushing minor league pitching for power. Ike Davis has been a good minor league hitter, but not quite as prolific. Still, this team has plenty of room for guys with actual talent.

[DaveW]

If give Davis a shot no doubt though, he is prob due, what 4 mil next season through arb? Send the mets a non prospect and roll

The dice. I'd still sigh morneau for another 4 mil for insurance though.

[Brandon]

Ike Davis..... The return of the Ron Davis curse 2nd generation....

[Mike Sixel]

I'd rather that money go to a legit SP or two, or a Cuban FA, or Ellsbury (not goingo to stop beating that drum, btw).

[Winston Smith]

As long as Ryan is in charge

http://b.vimeocdn.com/ts/433/314/433314343_640.jpg

[DaveW]

I'd rather that money go to a legit SP or two, or a Cuban FA, or Ellsbury (not goingo to stop beating that drum, btw).

 

Why on earth would the Twins want to over pay for Ellsbury?

[Winston Smith]

Why on earth would the Twins want to over pay for Ellsbury?

 

Where did he say anything about over paying?

 

Ellsbury is a good player we need more good players, now it may take an over pay to sign him but mike didn't say sign him no matter the price.

[Mike Sixel]

Why on earth would the Twins want to over pay for Ellsbury?

 

Market rate = the price, not an overpay...and they have plenty of cash sittig in a giant pile.and I've covered this in numerous threads.....

 

Hicks, imo, will never hit well. Arcia is an iffy fielder.

 

Ellsbury gives them 3-5 wins over what they got this year from CF, move him to LF when Buxton is up, you have an elite defensive OF. He has stolen 50 of 52 attempts this year, he's not in decline. The leaves RF as your only LT question mark in the OF, with Hicks and Arcia battling for that position.

 

Basically, you sign him because he, and I know this is not what they are supposed to be doing now, makes them better next year and teh year after and the year after.

 

Had they signed a legit SP last year, and sign Ellsbury this year, they are basically at 80-82 wins, before adding Sano, Rosario, a decent 1B or DH.

 

You sign players to make the team better.

 

And people keep saying "well, Boston isn't signing him, they must know something "....wouldn't that apply to 100% of the free agents? By that logic, you'd never sign any FA ever.

[PseudoSABR]

I'd rather that money go to a legit SP or two, or a Cuban FA, or Ellsbury (not goingo to stop beating that drum, btw).

You can't expect to build a winning ballclub by pouring all your money into one asset. The Twins can afford Davis and make a significant splash in FA; if any FA requires the Twins take on no more new money, we're not going to get much better.

[Mike Sixel]

You can't expect to build a winning ballclub by pouring all your money into one asset. The Twins can afford Davis and make a significant splash in FA; if any FA requires the Twins take on no more new money, we're not going to get much better.

 

Who said put "all of your money in one asset"? This team has $40+ million available. If you mean that I am implying only 1 player, that was not my intent......I'd like Tanaka and Ellsbury or Cuban 1B, if you want to also add another player or two, great!

[PseudoSABR]

Who said put "all of your money in one asset"? This team has $40+ million available. If you mean that I am implying only 1 player, that was not my intent......I'd like Tanaka and Ellsbury or Cuban 1B, if you want to also add another player or two, great!

You still need to spend money on the less sexy, supplementary cast of characters that make a winning ballclub.

 

Ellsbury, Tankaka, Abreu? Seriously? Be prepared to be disappointed. Signing one player like that is pretty unrealistic, much less more than one.

[Mike Sixel]

You still need to spend money on the less sexy, supplementary cast of characters that make a winning ballclub.

 

Ellsbury, Tankaka, Abreu? Seriously? Be prepared to be disappointed. Signing one player like that is pretty unrealistic, much less more than one.

 

ha, I don't expect them to sign anyone for more than 5-7MM per year next year, so I won't be surprised when they don't. I'll not be happy that they continue to dumpster dive, but I've moved my emotional attachment to this team down enough that I can't see being disappointed by their decisions.

 

And yes, they do need to spend money on role players going forward, we agree on that.

[cmb0252]

Ike Davis to Ellsbury. That escalated quickly. I just brought up Davis because he will be cheap, fills a need, has some upside, and Sherman linked him to the Twins. A low end prospect and $4m should be able to get Davis which is not much. If the Twins are opening up the check book go for a pitcher.

[Thrylos]

Check this write up out about Davis. A great summary of his performance and abilities.

 

The problem I have with Davis is that he seems to be an injury and misfortune magnet. He still does not have a single season without something happening to him. Not sure that it is worth any money. At this point, I think that the Twins should play Parmelee/Colabello until the end of the year then invite Kennys Vargas to the ST and have all 3 of them fight for the position. Also I assume that Mauer will probably get at least 50 starts there in 2014.

[nicksaviking]

You still need to spend money on the less sexy, supplementary cast of characters that make a winning ballclub.

 

Carroll, Correia, Pelfrey, Marquis, Doumit? No thanks, what they bring can reasonably be replicated by the low cost minor leaguers and the AAAA'ers the Twins love to recycle. You can also get plenty of free agent vets on or near league minimum deals, the Twins do this with the bullpen yearly. These signings are more wasteful of a limited budget than taking a chance on two actual upgrades.

 

Time to go big or go home, this team dosn't need a half dozen more of these kind of free agents. Free agency should be used for upgrades, not bottom barrel replacement players. Those can be found in Rochester and on the waiver wire, and cheaply.

[ashbury]

or Ellsbury (not goingo to stop beating that drum, btw).

 

In threads like this one about a potential trade target? Double check the comments policy about that, my brother.

[PseudoSABR]

Carroll, Correia, Pelfrey, Marquis, Doumit? No thanks, what they bring can reasonably be replicated by the low cost minor leaguers and the AAAA'ers the Twins love to recycle. You can also get plenty of free agent vets on or near league minimum deals, the Twins do this with the bullpen yearly. These signings are more wasteful of a limited budget than taking a chance on two actual upgrades.

I totally disagree. You're ignoring the fact that players can have negative value. As paltry as their contribution might seem, mediocrity is worth something in that it's actually not bottom of the barrel. The Twins already scrape the bottom of the barrel and find semi useful players (Florimon, the relief corp) but that's not a realistic way to supplement a winning club. You have to pay for quality innings and quality at bats and defensive flexibility. Assuming you can just find those guys, is how you lose a lot of games. I mean how many starting pitchers have the Twins used who turned out to be much worse and less reliable than either Pelfry or Correia--such pitchers aren't at all easy to find.

 

I think it's intellectually dishonest to compare league average players to players on the waiver wire or in AAA. The guys you mention aren't bottom of the barrel, there's a whole subset of players who are a lot worse and still take major league at bats and pitching major league innings. As much as we hate to admit, a zero VORP or a 1-2 WAR player does have value, the guys that are preeminently available have negative value.

[Thrylos]

The Twins already scrape the bottom of the barrel and find semi useful players (Florimon, the relief corp) but that's not a realistic way to supplement a winning club. You have to pay for quality innings and quality at bats and defensive flexibility. .

 

+1

but the Twins are not using trash diving to supplement their club. They are using it to build it these days with Ryan at the helm. I am just convinced that Ryan is not willing to pay $15 to bring in a single good player who will have a positive impact with the club, but instead he will spend that to overpay 3-4 mediocre players who will have negative impact.

[PseudoSABR]

+1

but the Twins are not using trash diving to supplement their club. They are using it to build it these days with Ryan at the helm. I am just convinced that Ryan is not willing to pay $15 to bring in a single good player who will have a positive impact with the club, but instead he will spend that to overpay 3-4 mediocre players who will have negative impact.

Well, that's not quite how I see it. The Twins are building from within, and are being cheapos until the young core emerges. Which is frustrating, but somewhat understandable.

 

Again the thing is about those mediocre players is that we pay them because the players they replace would have negative impact. Treading water is NOT the same thing as drowning, guys.

[Oxtung]

I totally disagree. You're ignoring the fact that players can have negative value. As paltry as their contribution might seem, mediocrity is worth something in that it's actually not bottom of the barrel. The Twins already scrape the bottom of the barrel and find semi useful players (Florimon, the relief corp) but that's not a realistic way to supplement a winning club. You have to pay for quality innings and quality at bats and defensive flexibility. Assuming you can just find those guys, is how you lose a lot of games. I mean how many starting pitchers have the Twins used who turned out to be much worse and less reliable than either Pelfry or Correia--such pitchers aren't at all easy to find.

 

I think it's intellectually dishonest to compare league average players to players on the waiver wire or in AAA. The guys you mention aren't bottom of the barrel, there's a whole subset of players who are a lot worse and still take major league at bats and pitching major league innings. As much as we hate to admit, a zero VORP or a 1-2 WAR player does have value, the guys that are preeminently available have negative value.

 

Who exactly have the Twins signed in FA that were league average players? Willingham might have been but I haven't seen many people complaining about signing him. Doumit might have been, depending how much you value defense but again I think people were mostly ok with his original signing. Pelfrey, Correia, Marquis and Carroll were all well below average when they signed.

 

You're probably right that there is a difference between the very bottom of the barrel and what the Twins traditionally sign but let's not get confused and start calling these players average.

[Oxtung]

I wouldn't mind Ike Davis, he seems to be an alright player and would certainly fill a hole on the roster but, like always, it would depend on the asking price. However, if this trade would cause Ryan to think he'd done enough or that there was no longer money to sign a legitimate upgrade or three then I want nothing to do with Davis.

 

In short, if a Davis trade in anyway interferes with the acquisition of significant talent then I'll pass.

[nicksaviking]

I think it's intellectually dishonest to compare league average players to players on the waiver wire or in AAA. The guys you mention aren't bottom of the barrel, there's a whole subset of players who are a lot worse and still take major league at bats and pitching major league innings. As much as we hate to admit, a zero VORP or a 1-2 WAR player does have value, the guys that are preeminently available have negative value.

 

You are way overvaluing these players. Only Correia has a 1.1 WAR, the rest of the guys I listed are negligible or negative yet the Twins still paid multiple millions for them. These guys are not league average players, they are replacement level and superior teams WOULD consider these guys, waiver wire/DFA candidates. In fact the Twins did just that with Marquis and they might as well have done it with Carroll.

 

Besides, even with Correia's 1.1 WAR, what good is it doing the Twins? They are spending money on multiple guys of Correia's ilk or worse as opposed to one guy who would actually boost the rotation. Correia's been an anomoly (barely) but if you want to use WAR, how would signing four guys with a 0 WAR be better than 1 guy with a 3 WAR? 4x0 is still 0 which is less than 3.

 

It's treading water at best and more accurately just slowing the descent of an already sinking ship.

[ThePuck]

'Sherman wonders if the Mets might consider swapping him for another buy-low candidate like Jeremy Hellickson and notes that teams like the Rays, Twins, Marlins and Brewers could all be intrigued by Davis.'

 

There's a prevailing theme to these kind of rumors...that being, if we are tied to a MLB player in a rumor, he's an inexpensive buy low player.

[ThePuck]

have yet to see a national article say that the Twins have loads of money coming off the books and will likely be a major player in free agency...or in the market to trade for a high quality player. It's always buy low, low risk, possible high reward types.

[nicksaviking]

'Sherman wonders if the Mets might consider swapping him for another buy-low candidate like Jeremy Hellickson and notes that teams like the Rays, Twins, Marlins and Brewers could all be intrigued by Davis.'

 

Ha, this part made me roll my eyes. Joel Sherman is a New York Post writer and clearly has a case of classic East Coast our-used-junk-is-better-than-anything-you-haveitis. Usually it happens with Yankee players and prospects but I guess the Mets have gained some steam in terms of this propaganda. No way is a 26-year-old pitcher four years from free agency, two years removed from the ROY the return for a 1B the Mets considered DFA'ing in July and may decide to non-tender this off season.