Article: Twins Trade Justin Morneau To Pirates

[raindog]

Can't we assume that was discussed? Can't we assume the Terry Ryan took the offer that he felt was best for the organization long-term?

I don't know that we can assume that. I think saving money was a concern as well. I'm not going to totally rip the organization, because we'll never know what was discussed. But I don't think the Twins always deserve the benefit of the doubt.

[PseudoSABR]

Can't we assume that was discussed? Can't we assume the Terry Ryan took the offer that he felt was best for the organization long-term?

So many Twins fans are so bitter after losing for so long that it's far easier to believe that the FO is incompetent (or cheap) rather than that Morneau just didn't have much value.

[PseudoSABR]

So it's just a coincidence that the cheapest deal was the one that was best long term?

Who's to say there was any other deals out there?

 

This is the same FO that turned Butera into a top 20 guy, and refused to give away Willingham...

[nicksaviking]

While top 20 arms in low-A are fun to dream on, guys like these two probably statistically make a more significant impact.

 

The odds are that they play actual MLB games as opposed to a 20-year-old in Low A is higher, but the odds they make a significant impact are slim. With how risk adverse Ryan is and seeing the Liriano and Morneau trades play out, I think we can safely say Ryan prefers guys he can plug into the MLB roster despite a lack of upside. I think a GM who was intent on getting the best talent possible would opt for the younger player even if they never panned out.

[nicksaviking]

So many Twins fans are so bitter after losing for so long that it's far easier to believe that the FO is incompetent (or cheap) rather than that Morneau just didn't have much value.

 

Pretty sure even when the Twins were winning people were pretty fed up with the Twins being cheap and I for one was not thrilled that Ryan was brought back to fix the Bill Smith disaster, I wanted new agressive blood.

[PseudoSABR]

The odds are that they play actual MLB games as opposed to a 20-year-old in Low A is higher, but the odds they make a significant impact are slim. With how risk adverse Ryan is and seeing the Liriano and Morneau trades play out, I think we can safely say Ryan prefers guys he can plug into the MLB roster despite a lack of upside. I think a GM who was intent on getting the best talent possible would opt for the younger player even if they never panned out.

So guys like Miguel Sulbaran, Trevor May, and Alex Meyer just don't exist for you? The Twins take a variety of approaches when targeting players, but they don't avoid high upside guys that come with some risks, nor are they afraid of taking a chance on some later bloomers (Welker and Presley have actually produced good numbers in AAA, even if older).

[PseudoSABR]

Pretty sure even when the Twins were winning people were pretty fed up with the Twins being cheap and I for one was not thrilled that Ryan was brought back to fix the Bill Smith disaster, I wanted new agressive blood.

Well if you had some actual tangible evidence that the Twins could have had a better deal if they ate some cash, I'd put some stock in what you say, but really it's difficult for me not see your admitted bias at work.

[nicksaviking]

So guys like Miguel Sulbaran, Trevor May, and Alex Meyer just don't exist for you? The Twins take a variety of approaches when targeting players, but they don't avoid high upside guys that come with some risks, nor are they afraid of taking a chance on some later bloomers (Welker and Presley have actually produced good numbers in AAA, even if older).

 

I've complemented Ryan on the above trades, and I am more than happy to admit that I've liked many of his moves, but yes, if the Twins are rebuilding, I think he should ALWAYS go for upside in a trade. There is no need to take a variaty of approaches. You can get the same production that the Pressleys and Welkers and Hernandez' and Escobars give you with minimal or even minor league free agents. You generally don't get upside on the free agent market unless you pay for it. And clearly Ryan won't, so get it in trades, and in trades get it exclusively. No More Filler.

[nicksaviking]

Well if you had some actual tangible evidence that the Twins could have had a better deal if they ate some cash, I'd put some stock in what you say, but really it's difficult for me not see your admitted bias at work.

 

You realize the view is the same from my position?

 

Reason states you get what you pay for. I have reason on my side while you only have faith that Ryan can do no wrong.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The Twins got similar returns for Morneau and Liriano. And the Pirated picked up 30 days of Morneau's $76,500 daily income. The Pirates got a guy to help in the stretch run for a heavy (but decent actual) price. The Twins got two guys that might have a chance and saved about $2.3m.

 

On one hand, you can shell out $2.3 million and be left with nothing in a month or you can save that money and get two guys that can - at a minimum - be organizational filler.

 

As much as I like Morneau, that sounds like a good business decision. Especially, when it doesn't change anything going forward.

 

Who knows if the Twins would have gotten anything better if they would have paid some of his salary... maybe a little bit? I was really hoping they could jack Pittsburgh's Comp B pick, though.

[Seth Stohs]

So it's just a coincidence that the cheapest deal was the one that was best long term? That's an awful generous benefit of a doubt considering there is no evidence to support it but plenty of reports prior to the trade that money was the hold up.

 

there's also no evidence to support that there was some good prospect available if the Twins picked up $2 million more. My assumption is that it wouldn't have made a difference. If Money was the hold up, my assumption would be that the Twins were offering to pick up more but that wasn't helping the return.

[Mike Sixel]

Not a fan of older players with low upside being added to the 40 man.....we already saw pinto could not come up until the rosters expanded, right? Whatever, I see another 90 loss season next year, I am losing interest in this team.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth, I'll ask the same thing I asked earlier. In your opinion, based on who we got and the fact Morny was gone at the end of the year, how does this trade actually effect us long term?

 

Most likely, very little. Presley could be a 4th OF, part time starter for the next four years, or he could be gone in a year or two. Welker could become a decent 6-7th inning guy who throws hard, and if he can throw enough strikes, he can be around 3-5 years. If not, maybe a year. If not, nothing lost.

 

So, for a month of Morneau, they could have gotten absolutely nothing, or they could get two guys who play/pitch in a role for the next 3 years or so.

[Mike Sixel]

there's also no evidence to support that there was some good prospect available if the Twins picked up $2 million more. My assumption is that it wouldn't have made a difference. If Money was the hold up, my assumption would be that the Twins were offering to pick up more but that wasn't helping the return.

 

based on years of evidence to the contrary?

[Seth Stohs]

So many Twins fans are so bitter after losing for so long that it's far easier to believe that the FO is incompetent (or cheap) rather than that Morneau just didn't have much value.

 

I understand that. I just agree that using the "Twins are Cheap" slogan over and over is just lazy. It's too easy. You're right. This is the value that Morneau had. It just is what it is.

[Seth Stohs]

It's often easy to say that a team waits too long to trade a player and sell low. But does anyone really think that he has had any more value than he has right now? His price tag is finally down. And, his concussion/wrist issues were too fresh the last two offseasons to have any value (to go along with $15M per year). I just have a hard time getting worked up about this.

 

I like the players that the Twins got from the White Sox better because, at the time, Hernandez was 23 and had pitched a game in the big leagues already and Escobar was 23 and spent the entire season with the White Sox to that point. Maybe their roles were future 6th starter/long reliever and utility infielder, but they were young. I'm not a fan of the 28 and 27 year olds acquired for Morneau, but it is what it is.

[Dman]

Yeah this is not a jump for joy trade but I also don;t think it really hurts us to unload Morneau either. Maybe Ryan can make something better out of this down line maybe not. At least he did something instead of nothing. I would have liked younger prospects with better upside as well but if that wasn't on the table let's see what we've got and go from there.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Perhaps Willingham is gone by tommorrow also.

The window has closed on the Hammer trade since he was claimed.

 

Best of Luck Morneau.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Does anyone know how PTBNL works? Can it be stacked based on how Morneau plays? So if he hits like it's 2010 for the next 6 weeks they get a better player and if he hits like it's 2011 (or gets injured) it's cash? Or do both sides already know the player but can't mention him until his tradeable?

Sounds like the latter. Rumor has it its Duke Welker a career minor league reliever who is currently on their 40 man. It is supposed to go thru after the season.

[PseudoSABR]

You realize the view is the same from my position?

Look, I actually don't care for the trade; I just don't get the outrage.

 

Reason states you get what you pay for. I have reason on my side

Huh? Again, the Pirates have just as much reason to want to pay Morneau's salary as we do (they want to keep their good prospects too!). Reason is a two way street, and you hardly have a it in exclusivity.

 

while you only have faith that Ryan can do no wrong.

Ryan can and does plenty of wrong. I don't even care for the trade and would have just liked to have seen Morneau finish the season. On the other hand, I need actual evidence before I can begin to speculate that Ryan actual did wrong; you're just speculating. I need facts before I can get worked up about the return from a one month rental of a mediocre first baseman.

 

I'm not sure why it's so hard to accept that this is all Morneau was worth, as sad as it is. It's meh, and probably has very little to do with the competence or cheapness of the FO.

[howeda7]

Well if he's a member of the team with an expired contract (oh, and former MVP), any decision this winter necessarily would involve him. It would hang over everything.

 

The circumstances resulting from this trade right now are better for both parties - Morneau and the Twins.

 

So the bad PR of trading Morneau is minimal and shouldn't be considered, but having him as a pending free-agent would hang over the entire off-season? Not saying you made the first statement, but the range of thoughts on this is wide.

[nicksaviking]

Look, I actually don't care for the trade; I just don't get the outrage.

 

Huh? Again, the Pirates have just as much reason to want to pay Morneau's salary as we do (they want to keep their good prospects too!). Reason is a two way street, and you hardly have a it in exclusivity.

 

Ryan can and does plenty of wrong. I don't even care for the trade and would have just liked to have seen Morneau finish the season. On the other hand, I need actual evidence before I can begin to speculate that Ryan actual did wrong; you're just speculating. I need facts before I can get worked up about the return from a one month rental of a mediocre first baseman.

 

I'm not sure why it's so hard to accept that this is all Morneau was worth, as sad as it is. It's meh, and probably has very little to do with the competence or cheapness of the FO.

 

If we agree that it would have been preferable to let Morneau finish the season instead of getting these two, why are you disagreeing with me? I've made my main point very clear, I don't want these two 27-year-olds cluttering up the already cluttered 40 man.

 

On a different note, Morneau is hot, at this point he doesn't deserve a qualifying offer, but if his September is similar to his August, he just may. This is a deep draft class and it certainly would be nice to have another high pick. If it was a 1 in five chance, even a 1 in 10 chance that the Twins could offer and Morneau refuse a qualifying offer, I'f prefer that gamble over this return.

[Guest wabene]

Not a fan of older players with low upside being added to the 40 man.....we already saw pinto could not come up until the rosters expanded, right? Whatever, I see another 90 loss season next year, I am losing interest in this team.

 

You guys keep talking late bloomer with Welker you might want to consider the wealth of reliever talent on that club. If Welker had been with Twins he'd already be up. 6'7" and throws 98. Anybody notice the FO going for the big arms now? There is an article about 12 Pirate relievers that top 98. Log jam over there.

[CharacterGroove]

So the bad PR of trading Morneau is minimal and shouldn't be considered, but having him as a pending free-agent would hang over the entire off-season? Not saying you made the first statement, but the range of thoughts on this is wide.

 

No. It's a "bad PR move" either way. The point is you don't hold off the inevitable.

 

Let's stop pretending there's not a direct correlation in Morneau's trade value this summer and the Twins' strategy to win after 2013. The scouts are in agreement.

 

I hope the absolute best for Justin Morneau, and I'm excited to have a team to cheer for this fall. I also hope the scouts are wrong and he has some very strong years left.

[howieramone1406390264]

Not a fan of older players with low upside being added to the 40 man.....we already saw pinto could not come up until the rosters expanded, right? Whatever, I see another 90 loss season next year, I am losing interest in this team.

 

I'm guessing the Pinto delay was a paperwork thing, I know we don't have 40 good players. As I have previously posted, it's very unlikely a team with Buxton and Sano will ever lose 90 games. I'm sorry to hear you are losing interest in our beloved Twins. IIRC you have posted favorably about the Cubs and Marlins. I don't follow either of those teams, but at a quick glance it doesn't appear either of those teams are rebuilding.

[TheLeviathan]

No one knows what the negotiations were, the ignorance argument is garbage. What we know is Pirates ownership had to approve going over budget. Which very likely meant the bulk of negotiations had the Pirates Gzm working to avoid that. Which likely means had we been willing to help them avoid that dilemma the compensation MAY have been better.

 

its the most simple, reasonable conclusion. It would've been nice if we had entertained that notion. As it is I think the Twins organization is pretty principled against doing that (their decision, that's fine) and it may have cost us value. I don't understand the insistence on ignoring the most reasonable solution. Notice - i am not, nor implying they are cheap. I don't know their reasons, but it's clear they don't entertain that option even in prudent situations.

[PseudoSABR]

What we know is Pirates ownership had to approve going over budget. Which very likely meant the bulk of negotiations had the Pirates Gzm working to avoid that.

I draw that exact opposite conclusion. The cost of NOT going over budget (the better prospect) was too much to overcome. Once the increase in budget was granted, the Pirates GM would be foolish to give over a better prospect when his boss said he can spend what he needs to.

 

In either case, everyone's making inferences, and it's only a matter of opinion which inferences are more well-reasoned. For my part, the notion that the Twins could have had a worthwhile prospect by eating money is bunk.

[DaveW]

It's hilarious how people just like to paint TR to be some bumbling idiot. "Well why didnt he ask for a better player?????"

 

Yes clearly a guy with the success and background like Ryan would just happen to forget to ask for the best package possible

[jokin]

I'm guessing the Pinto delay was a paperwork thing, I know we don't have 40 good players. As I have previously posted, it's very unlikely a team with Buxton and Sano will ever lose 90 games. I'm sorry to hear you are losing interest in our beloved Twins. IIRC you have posted favorably about the Cubs and Marlins. I don't follow either of those teams, but at a quick glance it doesn't appear either of those teams are rebuilding.

 

I would agree that you must not be following those teams as they are clearly rebuilding, this year's won-loss records are completely irrelevant in that regard. Both teams have admitted as such, with a plan and time-frame clearly in place. Please check the article that John Bonnes highlighted in his thread regarding "grading the rebuild" which discusses the Cubs rebuild plan for further proof. The Twins would benefit from getting up to speed in that regard themselves, and being more forthcoming to themselves and their fanbase with an honest plan on the steps (in a general, not specific way) they will be taking to get out of this mess.

 

And as this is the second time you've mentioned Buxton and Sano and 90 loss season probabilities. Can I politely suggest you set up a thread proposing that the TD community guess on the W-L record in 2014 with Sano and Buxton in the lineup for more than half the season? You might be surprised at the results. Sano and Buxton are two pillars on whom you build around, but there are very few "building materials" on the roster now or in the near-term pipeline to put this team into a position to win more than 71 games next year. 2015 certainly looks to be a little better than 2014 and should give the Twins there first shot at .500. Of course, the other teams in the AL Central division have a big head start and could very well continue the present pattern of ownage of the Twins like KC demonstrated this year. I'm thinking 2 additional years on the rebuild is realistic and likely.

[Oxtung]

Here is what we know from the Twins perspective:

 

2 marginal prospects (assuming the Welker reports are true) + ~$2 million (Morneau's remaining salary)> ??? prospect(s)

 

The Twins left ~$20 million on the table this off season when FA upgrades were available and needed. This implies that somewhere in the upper management money is a very real factor in the decision making process.

 

From the Pirates perspective

 

They had to ask the owner to dip into his pocket to pay for Morneau's salary.

They gave up a better prospect to the Mets in return for cash considerations just this week.

 

Money clearly is an issue to both teams. The Pirates used that money to improve their team. The Twins did not. The Pirates have accepted cash back for prospects. None of this is concrete evidence there was a better return waiting for Ryan had he picked up most of Morneau's remaining salary, but it is more than "no evidence" as Seth put it. On the other hand, there has been absolutely no evidence presented that eating Morneau's salary wouldn't have improved the trade. If somebody has some I would love to read it.

 

Can't we assume that was discussed? Can't we assume the Terry Ryan took the offer that he felt was best for the organization long-term?

What is best for the organization (ie Ryan and the Pohlad's in this case) is not necessarily what is best for the on the field product. The Twins, first and foremost, are a business and ~$2 million is nothing to sneeze at. So, while I think we can assume he did what he felt was best that doesn't mean he didn't also leave an upgraded prospect on the table in favor of the cash.