Gammons: Morneau placed on waivers

[Mr. Brooks]

I would think they would need a pretty good prospect to trade Morneau because they are so stacked in low A and High A where would they find a place to put a marginal prospect. Also we have guys in short season ball that need to move up next year as well. They need something good or it is pointless to trade anyway.

 

I'm guessing you are saying this tongue in cheek, but in case you are not, they have plenty of room to fit any kind of prospect into the organization, even with the great prospects we have down there now.

[Dman]

Pittsburgh should really be the target. They could use him right now.

 

Yeah Pittsburgh likes our guys because they fix them and make them All Stars. You would think they could give us something back for Morneau.

[Dman]

I'm guessing you are saying this tongue in cheek, but in case you are not, they have plenty of room to fit any kind of prospect into the organization, even with the great prospects we have down there now.

 

 

I am actually being fairly serious. I realize that they can fit anyone in but if they are a lessor talent than what you have already why potentially block someone else. I am just saying I think they need someone pretty good to make it worthwhile.

[Mr. Brooks]

I am actually being fairly serious. I realize that they can fit anyone in but if they are a lessor talent than what you have already why potentially block someone else. I am just saying I think they need someone pretty good to make it worthwhile.

The Twins have about 200 players in their organization, of which about 165+ qualify as "prospects" (meaning less than 130 AB's or 50 IP of MLB experience). Any prospect you get back for Morneau, even on the very low side, is going to be in the top 25%, they will not be blocking anyone of significance.

For perspective, the prospect we got back for Butera was immediately slotted into our system as our #13 prospect, which puts him in the top 6 to 7% of our minor league system. Even if we only managed to get back a top 50 prospect for Morneau, that would still put them in the top 1/3 of our system.

[Mike Sixel]

Pay Justin, and get nothing at the end of hte year (other than his services in a lost year), or pay Justin's salary, and get a lottery ticket prospect. For a team looking at 85-90+ losses, for a third year in a row, I'm not sure how that's even two choices....

[Mr. Brooks]

Pay Justin, and get nothing at the end of hte year (other than his services in a lost year), or pay Justin's salary, and get a lottery ticket prospect. For a team looking at 85-90+ losses, for a third year in a row, I'm not sure how that's even two choices....

 

The only way it's 2 choices is if Terry is actually considering bringing Morneau back after the season.

If that is the case, then I've lost faith in Terry Ryan.

Justin Morneau is one of my all time favorite Twins, and nothing will change that. But you don't build a roster and an organization based on sentimental feelings. There is absolutely no excuse for a 33 year old, replacement level first baseman to be taking AB's from anyone at this time next year.

[Mr. Brooks]

My hunch is that Morneau will be traded before tomorrow's game.

 

Doumit was originally scheduled to be reinstated today, but now they are pushing that back to tomorrow.

They say he's fine, but it's for logistical reasons, that they wan't him to catch a bullpen session first, but didn't have any live arms to throw him one yesterday.

 

Now, it could just be that they really didn't have any live arms to throw BP yesterday, but an alternate theory is that they plan on trading Morneau in the next 24 hours, and therefore are delaying Doumit's return so that he can be the corresponding move to the 25 man roster.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Why would Pittsburgh want Morneau so badly? They have Jones, who is pretty much the same guy at this point.

[Dman]

The Twins have about 200 players in their organization, of which about 165+ qualify as "prospects" (meaning less than 130 AB's or 50 IP of MLB experience). Any prospect you get back for Morneau, even on the very low side, is going to be in the top 25%, they will not be blocking anyone of significance.

For perspective, the prospect we got back for Butera was immediately slotted into our system as our #13 prospect, which puts him in the top 6 to 7% of our minor league system. Even if we only managed to get back a top 50 prospect for Morneau, that would still put them in the top 1/3 of our system.

 

 

You schooled me there. Not thinking correctly about it. Too in love with the guys we have I guess. I retract my not well though out post.

[diehardtwinsfan]

What is your criteria for Andrus being worse than Florimon this year? Andrus has the higher OPS and the higher WAR (based on fangraphs, havent looked at BBR).

 

Andrus is having a down year, but long term he's a much better player than Florimon.

 

Yes I'm sorry, he's been about equal. .624 OPS compared to Pedro's .608 and from what I've read, Florimon's defense has been GG worthy and better. We can go year to year with Pedro, but we get Andrus until 2022 for the nice price of 120 million.

 

As I said before, players with his skill don't age well, and while I see him bouncing back a bit over the next couple of years, this season is going to be more the norm than the exception during that contract.

 

Pass.

[nicksaviking]

Why would Pittsburgh want Morneau so badly? They have Jones, who is pretty much the same guy at this point.

 

They could then stick Jones in RF which is a pretty big hole. The Pirates RFers are currently OPSing .654.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yes I'm sorry, he's been about equal. .624 OPS compared to Pedro's .608 and from what I've read, Florimon's defense has been GG worthy and better. We can go year to year with Pedro, but we get Andrus until 2022 for the nice price of 120 million.

 

As I said before, players with his skill don't age well, and while I see him bouncing back a bit over the next couple of years, this season is going to be more the norm than the exception during that contract.

Pass.

 

Well that is your opinion, I'm not sure why you state it like it's fact.

You speak about him like he's 29 or 30 and facing the downward arc of his career. He's 24 years old, just 1 year older than Aaron Hicks and Alex Meyer, and a year younger than Kyle Gibson.

 

I'm not saying I'd want to take on Andrus' contract, I'm just saying lets not compare him to Florimon, that is completely unfair. Andrus is the the much better player.

Florimon was in low A at the same age Andrus was having a 2nd place ROY season, and at Andrus current age, Florimon was just earning a promotion to AA.

 

I see this as nothing but a down year for Andrus, almost every player has had one, and he is still young enough to get better before he starts to decline.

Andrus also gives you GG caliber defense, but adds 30 to 40 steals per season and a .340 OBP.

Andrus has better than a 2:1 K/BB ratio, while Florimon strikes out nearly 4:1 and doesnt steal many bases.

Andrus is the vastly superior player, and while he will be overpaid for a chunk of that contract, that is just how baseball works.

If you want good players, chances are you are going to have to overpay for them.

[raindog]

Is there a time limit after someone clears waivers for them to be traded? Or can the Twins wait as long as they want?

[old nurse]

Pay Justin, and get nothing at the end of hte year (other than his services in a lost year), or pay Justin's salary, and get a lottery ticket prospect. For a team looking at 85-90+ losses, for a third year in a row, I'm not sure how that's even two choices....

 

The lottery ticket you would receive would be a ticket for the daily 3. You beat the odd but won very little. And you paid a few million for the ticket.

[drjim]

Is there a time limit after someone clears waivers for them to be traded? Or can the Twins wait as long as they want?

 

No limit. But August 31 is last day a team can add a player and have him eligible for postseason roster.

[Mike Sixel]

The lottery ticket you would receive would be a ticket for the daily 3. You beat the odd but won very little. And you paid a few million for the ticket.

 

I've already paid the money, that's the point of "sunk cost". The money is already gone, the question is....how do I best use that money? do I pay Justin to play here, or do I pay Justin to play someplace else and get a minor league player in return. Either way, the money is spent. Sunk cost, it's a concept even senior executives in huge companies struggle with. Decades of business school training still hasn't fixed their understanding well enough.

[drjim]

I've already paid the money, that's the point of "sunk cost". The money is already gone, the question is....how do I best use that money? do I pay Justin to play here, or do I pay Justin to play someplace else and get a minor league player in return. Either way, the money is spent. Sunk cost, it's a concept even senior executives in huge companies struggle with. Decades of business school training still hasn't fixed their understanding well enough.

 

Yes! Someone finally explained and applied this correctly

 

I am curious what the return for Morneau would be. I suspect it would be minimal and probably not ultimately worth it.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yes! Someone finally explained and applied this correctly

 

I am curious what the return for Morneau would be. I suspect it would be minimal and probably not ultimately worth it.

 

A side bar to this, how far has Morneau falling that nobody thinks we can as good of a return for him as we got for Drew Butera?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Well that is your opinion, I'm not sure why you state it like it's fact.

You speak about him like he's 29 or 30 and facing the downward arc of his career. He's 24 years old, just 1 year older than Aaron Hicks and Alex Meyer, and a year younger than Kyle Gibson.

 

I'm not saying I'd want to take on Andrus' contract, I'm just saying lets not compare him to Florimon, that is completely unfair. Andrus is the the much better player.

Florimon was in low A at the same age Andrus was having a 2nd place ROY season, and at Andrus current age, Florimon was just earning a promotion to AA.

 

I see this as nothing but a down year for Andrus, almost every player has had one, and he is still young enough to get better before he starts to decline.

Andrus also gives you GG caliber defense, but adds 30 to 40 steals per season and a .340 OBP.

Andrus has better than a 2:1 K/BB ratio, while Florimon strikes out nearly 4:1 and doesnt steal many bases.

Andrus is the vastly superior player, and while he will be overpaid for a chunk of that contract, that is just how baseball works.

If you want good players, chances are you are going to have to overpay for them.

 

I speak of him as a kid who has spent almost 5 years in the majors now who:

1) Hasn't shown much improvement

2) Has a game based primarily on speed.

3) Is having a bad year when he should be improving.

4) Is really freaking expensive.

 

If you want any indication as to what Texas thinks, my guess is that they'd love to get rid of him to play Profar over there. But that contract makes him untradable. I get that Florimon and Andrus are not the same player over their careers. That isn't the issue at hand. The issue at hand is that right now, they basically are, and history says Andrus won't age well, especially till 2022 or whenever it is his contract expires.

 

I would rather Morneau get traded for a clone of the guy that we got for Butera than a guy like Andrus, and unfortuantely, Profar is a pipe dream.

[ThePuck]

Andrus signed the extension like 4 months ago. If they wanted Profar to play shortstop instead of Andrus, why not just trade Andrus instead of giving him his big payday extension?

[ashbury]

You schooled me there. Not thinking correctly about it. Too in love with the guys we have I guess. I retract my not well though out post.

 

Moderator's note: too often the moderators have to speak up when a thread is going sour, and I just want to speak up here to say that I was fairly blown away by this gracious response. And it would not have been possible without the temperate rebuttal to which you responded. Kudos all around. I may hold this instance up as a model for others.

 

Of course, not every rebuttal is going to convince. But the odds increase, to maybe 5% instead of zero, when you state your case with respect.

 

Here endeth the sermon.

[Guest USAFChief]

 

But the odds increase, to maybe 5% instead of zero, when you state your case with respect.

.

show your work.

[ThePuck]

Back to the topic, has anyone seen any trade rumors in the last day or so concerning Morny now that he's cleared waivers?

[ashbury]

Back to the topic, has anyone seen any trade rumors in the last day or so concerning Morny now that he's cleared waivers?

 

Nope. I've seen a few articles/slideshows that speculate on needs versus prospects to offer, but that's just making stuff up. My impression (can't show my work) is that the Twins typically don't let much information leak out before a trade occurs.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nope. I've seen a few articles/slideshows that speculate on needs versus prospects to offer, but that's just making stuff up. My impression (can't show my work) is that the Twins typically don't let much information leak out before a trade occurs.

 

In other words, keep checking Twins Daily for up to the minute updates.

[LaBombo]

I've already paid the money, that's the point of "sunk cost". The money is already gone, the question is....how do I best use that money?

This reminds me of another conversation, one that could have gone like this:

 

http://thefw.com/files/2013/03/City-Slickers.jpg

Bruno Kirby: "Just shut up! He doesn't get it! He'll never get it! It's been 4 hours! The cows understand sunk cost by now! Just forget about it!"

 

Daniel Stern, to Billy Crystal: "Tell me again why the service clock matters."

 

Bruno Kirby: "That's it. You're dead!"

 

In fairness, like you said.... execs who control multi-million dollar budgets still don't get it. Nicely put though.

[ThePuck]

This reminds me of another conversation, one that could have gone like this:

 

http://thefw.com/files/2013/03/City-Slickers.jpg

Bruno Kirby: "Just shut up! He doesn't get it! He'll never get it! It's been 4 hours! The cows understand sunk cost by now! Just forget about it!"

 

Daniel Stern, to Billy Crystal: "Tell me again why the service clock matters."

 

Bruno Kirby: "That's it. You're dead!"

 

In fairness, like you said.... execs who control multi-million dollar budgets still don't get it. Nicely put though.

 

LOVED that movie!

[Kwak]

There is more to negotiating than "sunk cost". There is also the reputation of "tough negotiator" vs "quick-buck-taker". Consider in the "trade" both sides "gain", but one side "gains" considerably more than the other side. Reference Game Theory, where the result is not zero sum. If the GM is on the "lesser" side, he was out-negotiated and would be perceived as "such". Reference Bill Smith with his Tampa trade followed by the Santana trade. Smith was "out negotiated". Sometimes "no deal" is better for the long-term than "caving-in" to grab a small gain. I don't know what Ryan thinks "is good", but he has had a lot of experience in baseball negotiating, so I can "give him a Pass" if nothing happens. The offer just wasn't "good enough".

[LaBombo]

I am curious what the return for Morneau would be. I suspect it would be minimal and probably not ultimately worth it.

The Twins got a worthwhile prospect for a backup catcher who may never even suit up for his new franchise's major league club.

 

Morneau is batting .283/.343/.476 this year against righties after regaining his power stroke, and put up a .290/.371/.531 line against them last year.

 

In other words, Morneau has mostly been Morneau again against right-handers for going on two years now, and mostly been Butera-esque against lefties.

 

A contender that's ok with platooning would absolutely value that. Whether a trade happens is hard to tell, but if it doesn't, it won't be because Morneau doesn't still have something to offer.

[drjim]

The Twins got a worthwhile prospect for a backup catcher who may never even suit up for his new franchise's major league club.

 

Morneau is batting .283/.343/.476 this year against righties after regaining his power stroke, and put up a .290/.371/.531 line against them last year.

 

In other words, Morneau has mostly been Morneau again against right-handers for going on two years now, and mostly been Butera-esque against lefties.

 

A contender that's ok with platooning would absolutely value that. Whether a trade happens is hard to tell, but if it doesn't, it won't be because Morneau doesn't still have something to offer.

 

I know his performance and I imagine other teams do as well. I just wonder what 6 weeks of that brings back. I don't think it is very much and I don't think Ryan is keen to just dump him for minimal return.