Draft prospects

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Keith Law recently updated his Top 50 prospects. He still has Buxton at #1 with Zunino, Appel, Zimmer and Correa rounding out the Top 5.

 

After scrolling through and reading a little about each guy, I found his last couple sentences to be the most interesting to a Twins fan:

"If I had to guess right now, I'd say the draft's first four picks go Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, but if the Astros decide to pass on Buxton, the Twins could take him and push one of those college arms down to Kansas City at No. 5."

 

I don't put a ton of stock into Keith Law most of the time, but he seems to think the Twins have Zimmer and Buxton as 1 and 1A on their board right now.

[James]

Keith Law recently updated his Top 50 prospects. He still has Buxton at #1 with Zunino, Appel, Zimmer and Correa rounding out the Top 5.

 

After scrolling through and reading a little about each guy, I found his last couple sentences to be the most interesting to a Twins fan:

"If I had to guess right now, I'd say the draft's first four picks go Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, but if the Astros decide to pass on Buxton, the Twins could take him and push one of those college arms down to Kansas City at No. 5."

 

I don't put a ton of stock into Keith Law most of the time, but he seems to think the Twins have Zimmer and Buxton as 1 and 1A on their board right now.

Can you provide a link? I'd be interested in reading that.

[BigVin]

James, the above info i posted is from ESPN Top 50 list just posted yesterday.

[righty8383]

I would not be happy at all if the Twins took Buxton. Thats not meant to be a knock, just that we need pitching way more than another toolsy outfielder. It should be Appel or Zimmer. Even Gausman could be considered.

 

Here is the link James, but you have to be an insider...

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7794760/2012-mlb-draft-byron-buxton-mike-zunino-top-50-2012-draft-prospects

[Cap'n Piranha]

Keith Law recently updated his Top 50 prospects. He still has Buxton at #1 with Zunino, Appel, Zimmer and Correa rounding out the Top 5.

 

After scrolling through and reading a little about each guy, I found his last couple sentences to be the most interesting to a Twins fan:

"If I had to guess right now, I'd say the draft's first four picks go Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, but if the Astros decide to pass on Buxton, the Twins could take him and push one of those college arms down to Kansas City at No. 5."

 

I don't put a ton of stock into Keith Law most of the time, but he seems to think the Twins have Zimmer and Buxton as 1 and 1A on their board right now.

Obviously Giolito's injury forced him out of the top 5, but will he fall enough that we could use on of our compensation picks on him, and hope he recovers?

[gunnarthor]

I would not be happy at all if the Twins took Buxton. Thats not meant to be a knock, just that we need pitching way more than another toolsy outfielder. It should be Appel or Zimmer. Even Gausman could be considered.

 

Here is the link James, but you have to be an insider...

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7794760/2012-mlb-draft-byron-buxton-mike-zunino-top-50-2012-draft-prospects

Well, there are a lot of reasons to think the Twins will take him. 1) He might be the best player available at #2 2) A few years ago, the Twins decided that they needed to do more scouting in the southeastern US and they put Terry Ryan in charge of that area. The immediate result was drafting Nico Goodrum in the second round but Ryan has probably personally scouted Buxton. 3) Drafting toolsy high schoolers is part of the Twins draft strategy, that Ryan created. They aren't going to avoid drafting a guy like Buxton simply b/c they have too many OFers or b/c it's not an exciting pick.

[James]

I would not be happy at all if the Twins took Buxton. Thats not meant to be a knock, just that we need pitching way more than another toolsy outfielder. It should be Appel or Zimmer. Even Gausman could be considered.

 

Here is the link James, but you have to be an insider...

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7794760/2012-mlb-draft-byron-buxton-mike-zunino-top-50-2012-draft-prospects

Agreed. We need the pitching.

 

Thanks for the link as well. This is interesting stuff. We'll have to see how these rankings change between now and June.

[Shane Wahl]

Buxton will go to the Astros and the Twins should take Appel.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Obviously Giolito's injury forced him out of the top 5' date=' but will he fall enough that we could use on of our compensation picks on him, and hope he recovers?[/quote']

 

That's going to be the hairy part of the new CBA. With every pick that passes, the chances of Giolito signing goes down. Whoever drafts him would have to come up with a lot of money elsewhere. The Twins - with the biggest bonus pool - would be one team that might be able to get it done. The ripple effect would be a lot of college seniors drafted in rounds 2-10 (who take less than slot) followed up by a lot of high demand, hard-to-sign guys in rounds 11-20, in case Giolito doesn't sign after spending little on the easy-to-sign guys.

[gunnarthor]

Buxton will go to the Astros and the Twins should take Appel.

Well, it is the Twins. How about a scenario where the Twins take SS Merrero (probably slotted to go somewhere around 6th or later) and pay him 1m less than the cap for a #2 pick and use (pocket) that extra million somewhere else?

[nicksaviking]

I would be pretty disappointed with Merrero. If the Twins pick offense, they need run producers, and Merrero is another defensively safe, top of the order bat.

 

I don't think this list means a whole lot right now. We'll need to wait until the weather heats up, then we'll see pitchers fly up the rankings as they get the extra 4-5 MPH on their fastball and the have a couple more months mastering their second and third pitches.

[diehardtwinsfan]

That's going to be the hairy part of the new CBA. With every pick that passes, the chances of Giolito signing goes down. Whoever drafts him would have to come up with a lot of money elsewhere. The Twins - with the biggest bonus pool - would be one team that might be able to get it done. The ripple effect would be a lot of college seniors drafted in rounds 2-10 (who take less than slot) followed up by a lot of high demand, hard-to-sign guys in rounds 11-20, in case Giolito doesn't sign after spending little on the easy-to-sign guys.

yeah, this is definitely the downside of the new CBA. The thing about Giolito is that he will be pitching again before the draft... If things look good, I could see them drafting him... In all honestly, they need pitching. I don't care if they go lower ceiling quicker to the show (Appel, Zimmer, Gausman) or a higher ceiling with Giolito, but the bottom line is that they need impact pitching, as they presently have little.

[gunnarthor]

yeah, this is definitely the downside of the new CBA. The thing about Giolito is that he will be pitching again before the draft... If things look good, I could see them drafting him... In all honestly, they need pitching. I don't care if they go lower ceiling quicker to the show (Appel, Zimmer, Gausman) or a higher ceiling with Giolito, but the bottom line is that they need impact pitching, as they presently have little.

I don't see how Twins can take Giolito. Assume Gio needs 4m (that's what BA.com cited) and Twins have just over 12m to spend. They also have 13 picks in the first 10 rounds. IIRC, the cap on the #2 pick is 6.2m. The Twins can't realistically get to 4m unless they draft someone at #2 that'll take several million less than that and then hope that no one else takes Giolito before pick #32.

[THE DFC]

Agreed. We need the pitching.

 

Thanks for the link as well. This is interesting stuff. We'll have to see how these rankings change between now and June.

I disagree vehemently. You always go BPA and figure it out later. It just depends on who is BPA on their list. If Buxton is that guy, you trust your scouts and pull the trigger.

 

There are solid to great major league pitchers available every year, and they can be had with the right set of prospects. We just need to be a lot more aggressive in these situations and a lot smarter (no Ramos for Capps garbage) when they present themselves.

 

If Benson, Hicks, Arcia and Morales are all good to great and Buxton is shooting up the minors and dominating at every level, you cannot tell me we couldn't move 2 of them for some serious pitching value.

 

Heck, we're probably better off if the pitchers are developed outside of the organization given our recent results.

[shs_59]

I would not be happy at all if the Twins took Buxton. Thats not meant to be a knock, just that we need pitching way more than another toolsy outfielder. It should be Appel or Zimmer. Even Gausman could be considered.

 

Here is the link James, but you have to be an insider...

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7794760/2012-mlb-draft-byron-buxton-mike-zunino-top-50-2012-draft-prospects

 

Mistake #1

Common misconception among some fans here I see.

 

YOU TAKE THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE

 

If Buxton is there at #2 you absolutely take him, he likely could develop into a Jason Heywaard like star, in the meantime if 1 or 2 of Hicks, Benson, Arcia, Morales and Kepler pan out you HAVE the option to deal Buxton for a Matt Garza (or Better) like young arm when the situation presents itself.

 

with that said, everyones big board is different, Marcus Stroman RHP from Duke would be my #1 on my Board if he could grow just another 2 inches over night.

 

my way too early prediction:

 

Astros - Appel

Twins - Zuzino or Buxton, maybe Zimmer

Mariners - Zuzino or Buxton

O's - -- Zimmer or Beck

Royals - Zimmer or Guasman

Cubs - Marcus Stroman

Pirates - Carlos Correa or Devin Marrero

[nicksaviking]

If you compare him to Justin Upton sure, but Jason Heyward isn't exactly a future Hall-of-Famer.

 

The problem with Buxton is that he is playing in a rural Georgia school district. It would be like if someone said the best player in the country was playing in Hibbing. He's likely not facing many pitchers who can even touch 85 MPH on the radar gun, and it's doubtfull that any pitcher's breaking pitches actually break.

[samloupete]

I would not take a pitcher necessarily at the No. 2 overall pick unless he is a can't miss. There are, however, no can't miss pitchers in this draft. Appell and Zimmer are good pitchers, but not my choice. I like Zunino because Mauer will not catch forever. I would not take Buxton either because we have enough outfielders in our system. It is difficult to take a pitcher with your first pick. Gibson and Wimmers are good examples of that.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The baseball minds at BA think that Buxton is the consensus #1 talent. They also seem to think the Astros aren't willing to take the risk of drafting a HS at #1.

 

I'm all for taking the BPA, but if the Twins have a pitcher rated close to equal to Buxton, I'd error on the side of adding a pitcher to the stable. If they don't... well, would it be terrible to add the top-rated player on a lot of draft boards?

[jtrinaldi]

The Astro's would be dumb not to take Buxton, who I think is the 1 premier talent in this years draft compared to last years with Bundy, Bradley,Bauer,hultzen,starling,cole.

The Twins are getting Shafted for having such a bad record, compared to who they would have been able to take at 2 in last years draft class.

[Shane Wahl]

Buxton is the no. 1 pick, easily, And the Astros will take him. The Twins should take Appel. He goes to FTM immediately.

[shawntheroad]

I think you draft best player whenever possible, but look at need if someone is close. The fact that Appel or Zimmer could fulfill a need in 2 years has got to be appealing. Unless Buxton's ability was so off the charts better.

[Twinsoholic]

Ratcliff has stated that the Twins are looking to draft a college pitcher with their first round pick. I would be very surprised if they did not draft a pitcher--you don't get many chances to draft a top of the rotation starter. I would also be surprised if they did not use their sandwich selections like that did in 2011: select a hard-throwing high school pitcher (like Boyd) and a power-hitting high school hitter (like Harrison). They have two second round picks: perhaps a college catcher and another college starting pitcher. In June I get to see how far off of the mark my predictions are.

[tpb8]

I think you have to draft a player at #2 that has a chance to be great. If the college pitchers available profile as future #2 or #3 starters, i think you go with a higher upside position player. If Buxton is there, you don't pass him up for a future mid-rotation starter just because that player will be ready sooner.

[twinkiesfan11]

The Twins already have Hendricks, Wimmers, Gibson, Boer, Salcedo in the pipeline that profile as 3-4 starters with a chance to be a #2 if something goes dramatically right. Apple and Zimmer both have some serious questions including declining velocity in recent outings. Gausman isn't being discussed above pick 7 or 8 by most of the pundits from what I've seen. None of these three seem like a very sure bet to be even a future #2 starter so I question how much of an upgrade they'd really be over what the Twins already have. At this point if the twins go with pitching at pick #2 I'd rather see them go with Max Fried, at least there's some projection left to dream on and he's left-handed.

[Steve Lein]

Ya, Buxton is playing very weak competition, and with that weak competition, he still hasn't hit a HR yet this season...

[Mike Sixel]

Best pitcher should be the choice. They have never in their history traded great prospects for expensive players, and does anyone think they would?

[gunnarthor]

Ya, Buxton is playing very weak competition, and with that weak competition, he still hasn't hit a HR yet this season...

HS home run numbers probably aren't a good judge of future talent. Nearly every baseball scouting cite - Klaw, BA, Prospectus, Minorleagueball etc all have Buxton as one of the top possible picks, many thinking he should go 1-1.

[nicksaviking]

The problem with projecting power in high school kids is that it is basically based on their frame, not their approach at the plate. Joe Mauer and Delmon Young were #1 overall HS picks. Both projected to have a ton of power and neither are mashers dispite the fact that the size of their bodies say they should be.

 

I wouldn't be concerned about any of the pitching prospects velocity just yet, it's only mid April. Velocity picks up as the weather gets warmer.

[tpb8]

Would we really be excited to draft a futre #3 starter with the #2 pick? If Buxton never develops huge power, he's still got speed and a cannon arm. You can't draft for need unless you're on the cusp of something great. The Twins need to take the best possible player available, no matter the position.

[gunnarthor]

The problem with projecting power in high school kids is that it is basically based on their frame, not their approach at the plate. Joe Mauer and Delmon Young were #1 overall HS picks. Both projected to have a ton of power and neither are mashers dispite the fact that the size of their bodies say they should be.

 

I wouldn't be concerned about any of the pitching prospects velocity just yet, it's only mid April. Velocity picks up as the weather gets warmer.

And yet Mauer became one of the top players in baseball. Projection is a big part of scouting/development. It is what it is and the Twins don't seem concerned about taking high school kids. In the last 15 drafts, they've used their first pick on a high school position player 9 times - six made the majors (Cuddy, Mauer, Span, Revere, Parmelee and Plouffe), two washed out (Moses and Garbe) and one is still in the system (Hicks).