The Twins Should Hope Ryan Jeffers Accepts His Qualifying Offer

[Cris E]

12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I've said this a lot but I'll say it again. Jeffers is fantastic. I have nothing but praise for him. I hope he gets all the money he has coming to him. 

Bottom Line For Me: I want to beat the catcher market not lose to it.

I want to take advantage of the catcher market rather than have the catching market take advantage of you.

I'd rather the Twins treated the catching position as an asset-factory rather than long term foundational pieces.

Rather than over paying for catching - I'd rather the other teams over pay you for catching.

Ashbury calls it a stupidity tax. He is right... it's a stupidity tax that we pay time and time again because we have failed to develop catching. Jeffers the lone exception. 

Hopefully we can get on the correct side of the market with the players coming up through the system. 

When we have some ready catchers to trade in a few years we can do that, but right now our plan is hoping that Caratini trends back toward his career averages at the plate and something, someone, mumble steps up and really takes advantage of his opportunities! 

For 2027 we're in the market for a catcher because we have a gap in our development Pipeline at the position and we can't just slide someone over.  This year we need to go out and get a bandaid or go big and retain a stud. 

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Cris E said:

When we have some ready catchers to trade in a few years we can do that, but right now our plan is hoping that Caratini trends back toward his career averages at the plate and something, someone, mumble steps up and really takes advantage of his opportunities! 

For 2027 we're in the market for a catcher because we have a gap in our development Pipeline at the position and we can't just slide someone over.  This year we need to go out and get a bandaid or go big and retain a stud. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, JBK said:

I'm advocating for a backup catcher.  Not an alternative to Ryan Jeffers.

I might have been clearer that my first paragraph was intended to explain why Pineda isn't a better alternative to Caratini and Jackson.  The remainder of the post was back to the topic of the article.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

What? I assume the 6/95 is a typo, but there have been many catcher contracts for more then $40m handed out in the recent past. In fact Sean Murphy signed a six year $73m extension in 2022, JT Realmuto signed his 3/$45m deal last year at the age of 34,  Kirk from TOR got his 5 year $58m extension in March 2025, Will Smith did a ten year $140m before the 2024 season, and so on. Lots of rich contracts. 

If you want to confine yourself to free agents only that's your choice, but the market is set by what others are getting paid and who is available, and Jeffers has got scarcity and a lot of other contracts going for him, establishing a rough valuation around $12-15m.  

Murphy was younger than Ryan is now when he signed that so there isn’t the length into old age. The last year is a team option  still, a 12 million a year AAX is not going to get the Twins a comp pick   Kirk got out of signing for his free agent years were at 12 million a year with the contract expiring after his age 1 season  In regards to Realmuto and Smith. In what universe has Jeffers done what they gave done to get their money? That is why I didn’t say anything about them. I have never seen anyone compare Jeffers to them. Realmuto’s last contract from what I read was based on legacy and loyalty to the team.   Smith’s contract value drops after age 2. There is 35 million in deferred money,. 

[SE23]

Also worth noting that Caratini was a league average hitter until this season, so he could bounce back.  His big hot streak this summer was when he was catching full time during Jeffers' time away. 

I've noticed that Vic doesn't get much respect around here. I have a feeling he'll have a bounce-back year and surprise some folks.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, Road trip said:

But... if 1 WAR equals approximately 8 million of market value (that seems to be the sabermetric consensus), then Jeffers in 2026 was worth approximately 8 * 2.8 BWAR = 22.4 million.  So, the QO is right in range for his 2026 production.

You could certainly argue that Jeffers isn't necessarily likely to match last year's production, but I don't know it is a massive overpay.

This year's free agent market may be an odd one, with a labor stoppage likely, but $15MM AAV would be a bargain for Jeffers if he can continue to match his 2026 production, especially given the fact that there are no other good catchers on the market.

FWIW, MLBTR projects Jeffers to earn 4 years/ 75 mil.  That seems high to me, but it is another data point.

Teams lean on fWAR rather than bWAR, typically. Also teams haven't consistently paid $8MM for expected WAR in my analysis, they try to pay $6MM. $8MM is the cost that teams get because players underperform their expectations.

Team expects player A to produce 4 WAR. They pay the player more like $6MM per WAR expected so about $24MM AAV per year. Player A actually produces 3 WAR because they fail to live up to expectations due to injury or regression or decline so the net the cost of the contract is $8MM per WAR.

Yes, it's pretty easy to argue a player with almost no track record using a completely different plate approach than they'd had their entire career crossing over into age 30+ seasons on the tail of a career year could be risky.

It's tough to say how teams will evaluate him. Do they think he can repeat this past year but with more PA? Are they willing to treat him as a 3+ WAR player and give him a premium due to a tight market? Or are they going to view him as a relatively average MLB catcher and refuse to pay a big premium when they may not view him as a truly great upgrade? Will they be unwilling to part with over-cherished draft picks to sign him? 

Who knows?

[Coach Wheels]

8 hours ago, HarmanWithAnA said:

Pretty sure $23M is greater than $18.75M and he can probably still get the 4yr/$75M next year if he repeats his 2026 numbers.

Keyword, "if."

Also, 3 years guaranteed>1 year guaranteed

[TopGunn#22]

I agree it was a no-brainer to offer Jeffers, and what the heck, it's just a one-year contract.  There is almost no risk to offering.  Catcher is a big issue for 2027, even if Caratini DOES bounce back to a degree, which I think he will.  But Tom Pohlad needs to put his money where his mouth has been and get the Twins closer to what may become a negotiated "salary floor" even if that concept isn't applied until 2028.

The Twins will either have Jeffers for a 2027 bridge year for Lackey, or they will receive some sort of draft compensation.  I think the idea of offering Jeffers 3-years, $45 million or 3-years and $50 million is also a good idea.  An offer like that could push the Yankees or Cubs to make an offer that easily clears $50 million and that pushes the Twins draft compensation to end of 1st round.  Having Jeffers around for 3 more years is not necessarily a BAD option.  

I would pursue RP options that do not include Bednar and Morejon.  There are other good options that would not take a draft pick away from the Twins.  

[tony&rodney]

Jeffers, and finding bullpen help along with one bat, is part of a litmus test for the Twins. 

We won't know whether Jeffers rejects or accepts the QO for two weeks unless he comes out with a decision before the deadline. An early decision helps because adding $23M to the roster numbers will change some possible moves. Hopefully Jeffers can make his decision this week. 

Zoll (the entire front office) together with Tom Pohlad (if he needs to be in on everything) can get to work right now, particularly on smaller actions. There are opportunities to address the roster through transactions and trades. There is no reason to wait.

[IndianaTwin]

19 hours ago, old nurse said:

Lot of names, none are a free agent signing..

The discussion becomes preposterous when somebody brought up the Contreras signing. Ryan’s career pre free agency does not even begin to compare to Contreras’ lead up to free agency.  Even then  6/95 should signal Jefferson is not going to get that kind of contract.  So that leaves Vasquez 3/30 and McCann 4/40 as long term contracts given out since 2020. Teams are not signing catchers long term 

From the MLBTR article explaining their 4/$75M projection: 

If this number seems high, consider that the .254/.342/.440 slash Jeffers has posted in 1632 plate appearances since 2023 is a near-mirror image of the .249/.349/.467 line posted by Willson Contreras in 1604 plate appearances across the four years that preceded his own free agency. He landed five years and $87.5MM — with similar defensive concerns and a qualifying offer. Our prediction here is that Jeffers will land a bit shy of Contreras’ five-year, $87.5MM deal but a bit north of the $73MM Yasmani Grandal received in 2019.

 

Based on that, it seems Contreras and Jeffers do compare. Additionally, MLBTR also didn't include any allowance for inflation. The QO has gone up, what, 15 percent in the past three years? If that's a proxy for overall salary inflation, Contreras's deal moves to the neighborhood of 5/$100M. Contreras was also two years older at the time than Jeffers is now.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

From the MLBTR article explaining their 4/$75M projection: 

If this number seems high, consider that the .254/.342/.440 slash Jeffers has posted in 1632 plate appearances since 2023 is a near-mirror image of the .249/.349/.467 line posted by Willson Contreras in 1604 plate appearances across the four years that preceded his own free agency. He landed five years and $87.5MM — with similar defensive concerns and a qualifying offer. Our prediction here is that Jeffers will land a bit shy of Contreras’ five-year, $87.5MM deal but a bit north of the $73MM Yasmani Grandal received in 2019.

 

Based on that, it seems Contreras and Jeffers do compare. Additionally, MLBTR also didn't include any allowance for inflation. The QO has gone up, what, 15 percent in the past three years? If that's a proxy for overall salary inflation, Contreras's deal moves to the neighborhood of 5/$100M. Contreras was also two years older at the time than Jeffers is now.

I hope Jeffers gets the money. Note that Willson Contreras last caught more than 50 games in 2023. Contreras is not a catcher, but then again Jeffers isn't likely much longer either. For those enamored with WAR, Jeffers has one season of 3 and 3 seasons above 2 WAR and only 4 seasons above 1. Contreras has 2 seasons above 4, 8 years above 3, and 11 where he reached 1 or higher WAR. I think the only comparison is that neither is much as a catcher. Otherwise it is a very slim comparison.

[IndianaTwin]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I hope Jeffers gets the money. Note that Willson Contreras last caught more than 50 games in 2023. Contreras is not a catcher, but then again Jeffers isn't likely much longer either. For those enamored with WAR, Jeffers has one season of 3 and 3 seasons above 2 WAR and only 4 seasons above 1. Contreras has 2 seasons above 4, 8 years above 3, and 11 where he reached 1 or higher WAR. I think the only comparison is that neither is much as a catcher. Otherwise it is a very slim comparison.

Some have framed it as making a longer-term offer to Jeffers with the assumption that he'd be moving to 1B/DH by the end of the contract, which I think at least makes sense in the context of the "bridge to Lackey" concept.

When I looked at baseball-reference, I also saw that one of the four seasons in the Contreras equation was 2020, so it's really comparing his 3.375 seasons to Jeffers's four. That points to the reality of Contreras having caught a higher percentage of his team's games in those season.

I do think the 4/$75M is a better guestimate than the 3/$45-ish that others have suggested. As to whether or not I want the Twins to take part, it really has to do with how they are thinking about the rest of the budget.

People are comparing a few statements from Tom with the teams' recent history, when in reality none of us knows the answer to that question. If the supposed increase is to $130M, then they need to be more judicious and Jeffers is a tighter fit. If the increase is such that it will allow for a modest overpay for a slot or two, then I'm more on board with catcher being a place for that, given the overall shape of their roster and their potential inhouse replacements.   

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

From the MLBTR article explaining their 4/$75M projection: 

If this number seems high, consider that the .254/.342/.440 slash Jeffers has posted in 1632 plate appearances since 2023 is a near-mirror image of the .249/.349/.467 line posted by Willson Contreras in 1604 plate appearances across the four years that preceded his own free agency. He landed five years and $87.5MM — with similar defensive concerns and a qualifying offer. Our prediction here is that Jeffers will land a bit shy of Contreras’ five-year, $87.5MM deal but a bit north of the $73MM Yasmani Grandal received in 2019.

 

Based on that, it seems Contreras and Jeffers do compare. Additionally, MLBTR also didn't include any allowance for inflation. The QO has gone up, what, 15 percent in the past three years? If that's a proxy for overall salary inflation, Contreras's deal moves to the neighborhood of 5/$100M. Contreras was also two years older at the time than Jeffers is now.

Based on that one of the 4 years was the Covid  shortened year for Contreras . Other than that Contreras was consistently in the  3+. WAR range. Also Contreras was deemed an all star. Ryan has not been in that range.