Twins’ Playoff Push Comes Down to These 5 Things

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

There was a point earlier this month when the Minnesota Twins’ playoff hopes looked like they were slipping away. A rough stretch against the Brewers and Phillies had Minnesota searching for answers, and the team entered its series with Atlanta having plenty of questions about whether it could stay in the American League Wild Card race.

Then everything changed rather quickly. The Twins swept the Braves, their first series sweep since June, and suddenly Minnesota is back in a playoff spot with more than a month remaining. That does not mean the hard part is over. Quite the opposite.

The Twins have 33 games remaining, and the margin for error is going to remain extremely small. There are plenty of teams crowded around the postseason cutoff, meaning a handful of wins or losses could completely change the picture. So what will determine whether Minnesota actually gets there? These five things could be the biggest variables.

1. Joe Ryan’s Return

This one might be the most obvious. Ryan is arguably the most important pitcher on the Twins’ roster, and Minnesota simply looks different when he is leading the rotation. The right-hander landed on the injured list with a mild left glute strain after his August 4th start. The good news is that his recovery appears to be moving in the right direction. Ryan recently threw his first bullpen session since the injury, another important step toward returning to the rotation.

Now comes the difficult part. The Twins don't just need Ryan to return. They need him to look like Joe Ryan from the first half. There is a difference.

Minnesota's rotation has had to navigate injuries and inconsistency throughout the year. Taj Bradley has been solid with some inconsistencies that marked his time in Tampa. Bailey Ober has continued to work through some uneven outings, while the organization has leaned on younger pitchers such as Connor Prielipp and Zebby Matthews for important starts.

That can work for stretches. It is much harder to sustain over six weeks while trying to win a playoff spot. Ryan gives the Twins a legitimate front-line starter who can change the complexion of a series. Getting him back for the stretch run could be the biggest pitching development of the next few weeks.

2. Byron Buxton’s Health

The Twins' playoff ceiling is also tied directly to their most dynamic player. Buxton missed time with a right hip impingement before returning to the roster in August. He is clearly not 100%, but even at less than full strength, Buxton can be a difference maker. 

Buxton has carried Minnesota’s lineup through different portions of the season, especially when the club was scuffling through portions of the first half. But the Twins don't need one spectacular week from him. They need him available consistently through September.

There is also a practical element to this. The Twins have enough offensive talent to score runs without Buxton, but they are a much more dangerous lineup when he is creating pressure at the top of the order. His presence changes how opposing pitchers attack the rest of the lineup.

There is no way around it: Minnesota needs Buxton on the field. Not necessarily every inning of every game. Not necessarily playing center field every day. Just available. During a playoff race this tight, that matters.

3. Royce Lewis

This might be the most fascinating variable of the five. Lewis has experienced just about every possible storyline in 2026. He struggled badly enough early in the season to be optioned to Triple-A, then returned to Minnesota and started looking much more like the player the organization believed could become a cornerstone.

More recently, he has been one of the hottest hitters on the roster. Prior to Friday's 0-for-3 against San Diego, Lewis had reached base in 18 consecutive games and posted a .308/.378/.554 slash line during that stretch. In August, he has .867 OPS with seven doubles and two homers. 

That is the Royce Lewis the Twins need. Not necessarily the player who hits a home run every night. Not the guy who has to carry the offense by himself. They need the version of Lewis who consistently controls at-bats, makes hard contact and gives the middle of the lineup another dangerous threat.

Because there is a big difference between the Twins' lineup with Lewis producing and the Twins' lineup asking other players to compensate for an unproductive corner infield spot. The encouraging part is that Lewis appears to be trending in the right direction. The challenge is sustaining it.

4. The Rotation Has to Hold Together

Even if Ryan returns and even if Buxton and Lewis stay healthy, Minnesota is not making the playoffs without dependable starting pitching. The Twins have spent much of the season trying to find the right combination. Ober and Bradley have been inconsistent. Younger pitchers have been asked to handle meaningful innings. Dean Kremer has been added to the mix. And the team has had to be creative with its pitching staff as injuries have piled up.

That is a lot of moving pieces for a team trying to win games in September. The rotation doesn't need to become dominant overnight. It simply needs to become stable. The Twins need starters who can routinely get into the sixth inning and give the bullpen a chance to work with a lead. They need fewer games where the opposition gets an early advantage and forces Minnesota to spend the rest of the afternoon or evening trying to climb back.

That becomes especially important because the Twins invested heavily in rebuilding their bullpen at the trade deadline. There is legitimate relief help available now. But those relievers are much more effective when they aren't being asked to cover half a game every other night.

5. The Remaining Schedule

Eventually, the standings are going to stop being theoretical. The schedule will decide this. And Minnesota has a fascinating path ahead.

After the current trip to San Diego, the Twins head to Oakland for three games before returning home for series against the White Sox and Tigers. Then comes another three-game series against Chicago followed by three more against Detroit.

That stretch is enormous. Minnesota will have repeated opportunities to gain ground directly against teams involved in the same playoff race. The September schedule also includes Cleveland, the Yankees, the Angels, the Giants and Texas.

This is where the Twins can either create separation or get swallowed by the pack. The games against Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland will carry extra weight because Minnesota can gain a game while simultaneously taking one away from an AL Central competitor.

That is the good news. The bad news is that there won't be many easy nights. The Twins need to play like a team that belongs in the postseason.

The Margin for Error Is Small

That might be the biggest takeaway from all of this. The Twins are not relying on one thing going right. They need several things to go reasonably well at the same time.

Ryan needs to come back healthy. Buxton needs to stay on the field. Lewis needs to keep hitting. The rotation needs to become dependable. And Minnesota needs to take advantage of its remaining schedule.

That is a lot to ask. But that's what happens when a team spends the final month of the season fighting for one of the last playoff spots. The Twins have given themselves another opportunity. Now they have to take it. And over the next six weeks, these five variables could determine whether this surprising playoff push becomes a real postseason run or another season of what-ifs.

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What would you add to this list? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[jkcarew]

They need good Buxton, not ‘available’ Buxton. It’s been a while. 571 OPS going back to June 16. No homers in 85 PA. Heavy negative WPA. That’s not helping. He doesn’t need to be first-half Buton but he needs to be better than he’s been in his last 25+ games. If he healthy, yeah put him in and let him find it…but if injury is the cause again, then play someone that isn’t injured.

[thelanges5]

None of these teams in the wildcard mix are perfect. Which one of them is going to go on a run? Uphill battle for the Twins. 

[HarmonK03]

15 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

They need good Buxton, not ‘available’ Buxton. It’s been a while. 571 OPS going back to June 16. No homers in 85 PA. Heavy negative WPA. That’s not helping. He doesn’t need to be first-half Buton but he needs to be better than he’s been in his last 25+ games. If injury is the cause again, then play someone that isn’t injured.

I don't think he makes that diving catch last night if he is injured.  He needs to shake the rust off and do it very quickly.

[bean5302]

I continue to be interested in a World Series caliber team. A team which won't just embarrass fans if they make the playoffs. I don't see this Twins team as a likely contender. I think it hinges more on...

Connor Prielipp. He's being asked to transform into a playoff caliber starter. The Twins NEED 3. Ryan, Bradley, Prielipp. That's our best shot. Oofffda.

Clarity. What role do players have? I can't figure it out.

Could the Twins pull it off? I think they have the bullpen. I think the Twins are at a sizeable disadvantage in the rotation, but I also think the Twins could potentially have enough at the plate to make it happen with the right players in the right spots.

[thelanges5]

Rotation depth takes another hit. 
Gleeman:

Twins placed left-hander Kendry Rojas on the Triple-A St. Paul injured list with a right oblique strain.

Yet another injury hit to the Twins' already minimal starting rotation depth. And now Rojas' ability to play a major-league role of some kind down the stretch is in question.

[jkcarew]

15 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

None of these teams in the wildcard mix are perfect. Which one of them is going to go on a run? Uphill battle for the Twins. 

As far as the WC goes, I think the Twins schedule is much more favorable than Texas’s after this weekend. Of course the challenge is that you need to be better than a bunch of teams beyond just Texas. There’s always a chance Chicago stubbles badly. That’s a very young team experiencing this type of expectation for the first time. But, the bar remains very low, especially in the WC.

[jkcarew]

15 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

I don't think he makes that diving catch last night if he is injured.  He needs to shake the rust off and do it very quickly.

I don’t know. Doesn’t seem to be interested in steeling when he does get on lately. Also, when he’s been in one of his ‘healthy’ slumps in the past, he’s flailing and K’ing a ton. That’s not really the case with this slump. More soft contact and ground balls than a bad K issue. Still, if your gut is right and he IS healthy, history says it’ll be loud when he breaks out of it.

[jkcarew]

29 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I continue to be interested in a World Series caliber team. A team which won't just embarrass fans if they make the playoffs. I don't see this Twins team as a likely contender.

I’m almost 100% with you here. Expect the embarrass part. If they get there and get thumped, so be it. Might still be a good experience for some of the guys. The only frustrating part of that scenario for me is the org spinning it as a great accomplishment, worthy of being a blueprint for next year, and the year after that, and the year after that and…

[AceBee]

No pun intended, but at this stage, the SP on any given day is wild card so batting collectively needs to step up in clutch. Full Buxton and hour bat Lewis will be nice but we need consistent hits and rbis all across the board (hope Bell continues the way he is playing). Stating the obvious, but the longer out offense collectively disappears (as it has been for stretches after all star break), earlier we fade out of the playoff picture. My hope is that somehow magically we play well against the ChiSox in the remaining games, and we may still have a chance. 

[TCanWins]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Clarity. What role do players have? I can't figure it out.

I was encouraged to see that the lineup remains unchanged from yesterday for today's game. No arbitrary shuffling of positions. Some consistency and stability. Let's shake off the dust from yesterday's game and bounce back with some hits! 🙏 

[MeleMouth]

The top two factors can't be health and good performance by two guys who haven't been healthy or performing well, and the third top factor can't be continued good performance by an odd dude who's just starting to hit well. You have to assume the first two guys will continue to be spotty and the third dude, who's getting away with poor plate coverage, will see his performance return back closer to what it has been.

Here are suggested alternate factors - just to make the playoffs.

1. Lock-down bullpen. The team's biggest work this year has been to improve the bullpen. If this team is going to sneak into the playoffs, it's because they were able to get out to a lead in enough games and the bullpen locks the door.

2. Good hitting by Jeffers, Larnach, Clemens, Keaschall, and Bell. Jeffers, Larnach and Clemens are going through rough patches, but you can find positives in their data. If they can resume hitting how they were through mid-July, that would help a lot. Similarly, if Keaschall can maintain his new gear or even something a little below, and Bell could be similar, that could provide additional runs. 

3. Three or four starters to be adequate or better. The Twins' opponents from here out have a below .500 strength of schedule. The Twins don't need the Dodgers rotation to beat them. A decent staff should give them a good chance. Who it's going to be is the challenge. Bradley looks pretty good, but Ober, Prielipp, and Matthews all look like #5 starters at best right now. Kremer has put up good results since the trade, but underlying data is a little scarier. Here's where Ryan's return could help, because even if he doesn't return to his All-Star level, mere adequacy could do the trick. 

4. Of course, any gains from Buxton and something from Lewis approaching his current streak would help, but a plan based on health for Buxton and continuing a hot streak by Lewis is really a plan based on hope instead of strategy.

[HarmonK03]

4 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

and the third dude, who's getting away with poor plate coverage, will see his performance return back closer to what it has been.

Lewis has hit over .275 and has an OPS over .800 for the last two and a half months since returning from St. Paul.  And you say he's getting away with poor plate coverage, at least be honest in your evaluation of Lewis if you don't like him.  He is on a sustained run that has been one of the key factors in keeping us in contention.

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

Lewis has hit over .275 and has an OPS over .800 for the last two and a half months since returning from St. Paul.  And you say he's getting away with poor plate coverage, at least be honest in your evaluation of Lewis if you don't like him.  He is on a sustained run that has been one of the key factors in keeping us in contention.

Lewis was very good in June, mediocre in July, and is even better so far in August. You are absolutely correct that continued good fortune for Royce Lewis would definitely help the Twins succeed. It would be great if it does, but relying on his success to continue is a riskier factor for success than the others I described.

Here are reasons to be cautious.

First, you can't just look at results and project them out. With Lewis there are underlying indicators that we shouldn't expect a continuation of his hot streak. Among other things, he's getting the vast majority of his results from inside pitches, and, in August, unsustainable luck on balls in play, well exceeding anything Rod Carew ever did over a season, so regression here is about as sure a bet as you can get. 

Even with this good fortune, however, his isolated power, even in his en fuego August, would be only about 40th percentile among qualified hitters if he could do that all year. Contrast it to his ISO during his golden days of August/September 2023, which was more than .100 higher, with much more normal luck on balls hit into play not turning into outs. August 2026 Lewis is achieving results with a lot more luck and lot less power. 

If his all-time high luck on balls hit into play regresses, his ISO will sink lower. Also, unless he can do better with outside pitches, his success will continue only as long as the league doesn't change how it pitches him. Even in his good August, his rate of chasing well exceeds league average, while his rate of contact when chasing is well below league average. If I know this, it's probable that the whole league knows it and will adjust.

Further, Royce has been a source of disappointment several times over the last few years, so unless you can point to something in him that has positively and permanently changed, a downturn would be reasonable to expect. Finally, if a downturn does occur, I'm not sold that someone who tends to respond to challenges by reminding himself how awesome he is and saying things like "I don't do slumps" has what it takes to promptly face up to his problems and make  adjustments.

[HarmonK03]

7 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

Lewis was very good in June, mediocre in July, and is even better so far in August. You are absolutely correct that continued good fortune for Royce Lewis would definitely help the Twins succeed. It would be great if it does, but relying on his success to continue is a riskier factor for success than the others I described.

Here are reasons to be cautious.

First, you can't just look at results and project them out. With Lewis there are underlying indicators that we shouldn't expect a continuation of his hot streak. Among other things, he's getting the vast majority of his results from inside pitches, and, in August, unsustainable luck on balls in play, well exceeding anything Rod Carew ever did over a season, so regression here is about as sure a bet as you can get. 

Even with this good fortune, however, his isolated power, even in his en fuego August, would be only about 40th percentile among qualified hitters if he could do that all year. Contrast it to his ISO during his golden days of August/September 2023, which was more than .100 higher, with much more normal luck on balls hit into play not turning into outs. August 2026 Lewis is achieving results with a lot more luck and lot less power. 

If his all-time high luck on balls hit into play regresses, his ISO will sink lower. Also, unless he can do better with outside pitches, his success will continue only as long as the league doesn't change how it pitches him. Even in his good August, his rate of chasing well exceeds league average, while his rate of contact when chasing is well below league average. If I know this, it's probable that the whole league knows it and will adjust.

Further, Royce has been a source of disappointment several times over the last few years, so unless you can point to something in him that has positively and permanently changed, a downturn would be reasonable to expect. Finally, if a downturn does occur, I'm not sold that someone who tends to respond to challenges by reminding himself how awesome he is and saying things like "I don't do slumps" has what it takes to promptly face up to his problems and make  adjustments.

His approach has changed at the plate to one he is comfortable with which it makes easier to make adjustments.  He has done a better job overall of laying off the outside pitches which is why he is getting more pitches in the zone to hit.  Probably still needs to continue to improve this but has definitely done better.  He had a 7 to 10 stretch after the break that he struggled and worked his way out of, so he has shown can make adjustments.

Sometimes you have to watch the game and get your eyes off the spreadsheet, there is value to that.  He has made improvements and in my mind needs to be the first baseman going into next season.

[MeleMouth]

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

His approach has changed at the plate to one he is comfortable with which it makes easier to make adjustments.  He has done a better job overall of laying off the outside pitches which is why he is getting more pitches in the zone to hit.  Probably still needs to continue to improve this but has definitely done better.  He had a 7 to 10 stretch after the break that he struggled and worked his way out of, so he has shown can make adjustments.

Sometimes you have to watch the game and get your eyes off the spreadsheet, there is value to that.  He has made improvements and in my mind needs to be the first baseman going into next season.

One game is definitely not a trend, but tonight's loss to the Padres did not change my mind that the keys to success for the rest of the season will be (1) the bullpen, (2) hitting by Jeffers, Larnach, Clemens, Keaschall, and Bell, and (3) a starter being adequate or better; and that success should not depend much on either getting something from Buxton or seeing Lewis continue his recent hot streak. Unfortunately, although the hitting was fine and the starter was quite good (and neither Buxton nor Lewis did anything of value), tonight the bullpen failed to lock it down.

[Peter]

As much as I hate the stupid Joe Ryan experience-we need him back!!! Also starting pitching has to go 6 innings!!! Buxton needs to snap out of slump!!! No more blown big leads/one run losses!!! All games from here on out are must must must watch!!! Need to get on winning streak get over .500 and win division/make playoffs!! 

[bean5302]

On 8/22/2026 at 7:40 PM, MeleMouth said:

Lewis was very good in June, mediocre in July, and is even better so far in August. You are absolutely correct that continued good fortune for Royce Lewis would definitely help the Twins succeed. It would be great if it does, but relying on his success to continue is a riskier factor for success than the others I described...

Line drive expected BABIP is over .600. Lewis' Line drive rate was 29.1% (higher than any qualified hitter in the past couple of years). His BABIP is going to be at least .400ish with a 30% line drive rate, power and low ground ball rate. So a little lucky? Probably. Not that lucky, though.

I see this stuff about Lewis every time he has a rough 5 game patch as people are just stumbling over themselves to find reasons to trash him.

Last 5 games - .056/.056/.056 OPS .112 wRC+ (85), wOBA .049, xwOBA .199
Prev 15 games - .346/.386/.577 OPS .963 wRC+ 169, wOBA .414, xwOBA .391

 

[MeleMouth]

40 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Line drive expected BABIP is over .600. Lewis' Line drive rate was 29.1% (higher than any qualified hitter in the past couple of years). His BABIP is going to be at least .400ish with a 30% line drive rate, power and low ground ball rate. So a little lucky? Probably. Not that lucky, though.

I see this stuff about Lewis every time he has a rough 5 game patch as people are just stumbling over themselves to find reasons to trash him.

Last 5 games - .056/.056/.056 OPS .112 wRC+ (85), wOBA .049, xwOBA .199
Prev 15 games - .346/.386/.577 OPS .963 wRC+ 169, wOBA .414, xwOBA .391

 

His line drive rate in August is 26.8%, the highest of his career. That stat just reinforces the idea that he is on a hot streak that is unlikely to continue. It's an outlier from history - not just Royce's, but every major league hitter's.

Only three hitters in the last 6 years were around a 29% LD rate: 2023 Arraez, 2021 Adam Frazier, and 2020 Freeman. It's rare.

Rod Carew had a .400 BABIP only twice in his career, and once was in an injury-shortened year. Here are hitters who never had a .400 BABIP: Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Willie Mays, Aaron Judge, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Luis Arraez, Rickey Henderson, George Brett, Willie Wilson, Paul Molitor, Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez, and Mookie Betts. Lewis is nowhere near the quality of hitter that these players are or were. As I write, his August BABIP has already come down to .375; you can't project that he'll keep a .400 BABIP when he already hasn't.

Lewis also has one of the highest launch angles in the league, meaning that he is generally a flyball hitter, such as when he hit five home runs in June with an 18.2% LD rate.

If you think a 29% LD rate and .400 BABIP is "not that lucky" or that Lewis has something that will enable him to maintain rates that no notable hitter ever did, we'll just have to agree that we look differently at history and Royce's place within it.

You may consider the last few games as a rough patch, but I look at it as normal regression and perhaps as the league realizing that they needed to pitch to him differently. Lewis was just below replacement level in July and had a hot streak in the first half of August. It would be a mistake to consider his hot streak a permanent, projectable level for Royce.

[MeleMouth]

8 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

If you think a 29% LD rate and .400 BABIP is "not that lucky" or that Lewis has something that will enable him to maintain rates that no notable hitter ever did, we'll just have to agree that we look differently at history and Royce's place within it.

You may consider the last few games as a rough patch, but I look at it as normal regression and perhaps as the league realizing that they needed to pitch to him differently. Lewis was just below replacement level in July and had a hot streak in the first half of August. It would be a mistake to consider his hot streak a permanent, projectable level for Royce.

Two more comparisons for Royce Lewis. Tl;dr: as a hitter, he's less like Joey Votto and more like a lesser version of Junior Caminero.

In 2012, Joey Votto had a .404 BABIP and 30.2% LD rate in a 5.3 WAR season. He also had only 14 HRs to go along with 44 2Bs, for a good 58 XBHs (although only 56 RBIs, if that's your bag). He again exceeded a 30% LD rate in 2018, at 31.4%, but with just a .333 BABIP, during a 3.1 WAR season, perhaps because he lost a lot of power, with only 12 HRs and 42 XBHs total (and again with only 67 RBIs). Votto was totally geared for line drives, but he didn't hit the ball hard, usually having hard hit rate in the 30-39.9% range.

Votto was also one of the greatest hitters of the decade and he used all three fields, whereas Royce Lewis is an extreme pull hitter and swings much more like Junior Caminero, but with lower levels of bat speed, hard contact, and squared up contact. Caminero typically is around 15% for LD% and sub-.300 for BABIP. Lewis will probably settle in as a pretty good hitter, but not great, and to expect him to have Votto's career-high BABIP and LD% while also maintaining anything like Caminero's power, while swinging more like Caminero, is extremely unlikely to occur.

[bean5302]

On 8/24/2026 at 9:04 AM, MeleMouth said:

His line drive rate in August is 26.8%, the highest of his career. That stat just reinforces the idea that he is on a hot streak that is unlikely to continue. It's an outlier from history - not just Royce's, but every major league hitter's.

Only three hitters in the last 6 years were around a 29% LD rate: 2023 Arraez, 2021 Adam Frazier, and 2020 Freeman. It's rare.

Rod Carew had a .400 BABIP only twice in his career, and once was in an injury-shortened year. Here are hitters who never had a .400 BABIP: Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, Willie Mays, Aaron Judge, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Luis Arraez, Rickey Henderson, George Brett, Willie Wilson, Paul Molitor, Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez, and Mookie Betts. Lewis is nowhere near the quality of hitter that these players are or were. As I write, his August BABIP has already come down to .375; you can't project that he'll keep a .400 BABIP when he already hasn't.

Lewis also has one of the highest launch angles in the league, meaning that he is generally a flyball hitter, such as when he hit five home runs in June with an 18.2% LD rate.

If you think a 29% LD rate and .400 BABIP is "not that lucky" or that Lewis has something that will enable him to maintain rates that no notable hitter ever did, we'll just have to agree that we look differently at history and Royce's place within it.

You may consider the last few games as a rough patch, but I look at it as normal regression and perhaps as the league realizing that they needed to pitch to him differently. Lewis was just below replacement level in July and had a hot streak in the first half of August. It would be a mistake to consider his hot streak a permanent, projectable level for Royce.

You're trying way too hard. Lewis was on a hot streak that he earned. Now he's on a cold streak that he earned. Lewis has been hitting at an All Star level since his recall in June. The last 6 games isn't relevant.

[MeleMouth]

35 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

You're trying way too hard. Lewis was on a hot streak that he earned. Now he's on a cold streak that he earned. Lewis has been hitting at an All Star level since his recall in June. The last 6 games isn't relevant.

Fair enough opinion, although I'm not sure why you persist in wanting to make comments personal.

We all hope that Lewis will continue hitting well. My points have always been that projecting his early August streak forward is a mistake.