Second half predictions

[stringer bell]

If you care about the All-Star game and Home Run Derby, this is an exciting week. I really don't care about exhibitions so to me this week is a dead zone.

It might be a good time to see if there are any seers among the Twins Daily faithful. Let's have a prediction thread about what will happen to the players and the team for the balance of 2026 with special attention to whether the Twins make the playoffs in the weak American League.

I'll predict that the Twins are in the wild card and division conversation until the end, but late injuries and perhaps lack of bullpen depth will be their undoing. They finish with a 80-82 record and are a couple games out of the last playoff spot. Ryan Jeffers traded, Joe Ryan and Larnach stay.

 

[Vanimal46]

A question that’s been on my mind… Let’s say player control is reduced in the next CBA from 6 full service time years to 5. Will existing players be grandfathered in? Or will players like Joe Ryan instantly hit FA? 

[akmanak]

The Twins have been notorious for falling apart in late July and August. Without additional additions to the bullpen I suspect we start falling down the standings. 

If they can obtain just two above average bullpen arms, then this opinion shifts in the opposite direction and I firmly believe given the current state of the AL we could win the first round of the playoffs .

[ashbury]

My preseason 61-101 prognostication seems to have worked as an anti-jinx, so I will stand pat.

[Linus]

I’m not bullish on making the playoffs. RISP is likely to regress meaning more games where they simply don’t score enough to have a chance. If they suffer any pitching injuries things could get ugly as the pitching depth is tapped out. Having said all that, I really enjoy watching this team and am looking forward to the rest of the season. It will be fascinating to see how they handle the trade deadline. 

[Church of Kreidler]

As one of the forums resident optimists, I think we should all be buying our tickets to the Wild Card game ASAP!!! We've been riding on some crazy momentum the last several weeks, and I truly believe it's here to last!!!

I'm most excited to see how our recent pitching acquisitions shake out, and to see what comes from the upcoming trade deadline. I think more good things are coming!!!

(And boy howdy, I sure hope I'm right!)

[Dave Borton]

7 hours ago, Church of Kreidler said:

...

(And boy howdy, I sure hope I'm right!)

Haven't heard 'boy howdy' since we moved from Florida.

Boy howdy, the 'oofdah' of Tampa.

74-88.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I had guess we would be a tad below .500 so we are right on Track.  

I think the Twins do not sell at all and are active buyers.   The question is how much.  I've stated before but it does appear with Nance replacing Banda, Sands projected to come back after the Break and Coloumbe being available it could help solidfy the bullpen.  The lineup/hitters have been solid accross the board.  Buxton has been battling the hip all year and I think this break will hopefully allow a strong push for the deadline. 

Can the hitters remain on a hot streak.  This is my biggest question - and I am cautiously optimistic.  Lee has consistently gotten better,  Bell heats up as the season goes on,  Jeffers is back and Caratini can fill in if undeperformance, Buxton is Buxton if healthy,  Keashall made the adjustments and Larnach looks like for the 1st time in his career is really getting comforatable.  Roden is nice depth.  Culpepper and Jenkins can provide a boost from the minors although I do see some risk on this as if added to the 40 man they will be unable to play in the minors next year if there is a work stoppage.   

Additions - beyond Coloumbe I anticipate trading for 1 SP and 1 more good to elite reliever.   A Red Sox losing streak is my hope,  and trading for Sonny Gray and Chapman is the ideal scenario.  I would lose zero sleep on trading Rojas or Tait as the headliner with Roden as the additional piece.   These are the questionable pieces we received last year that I'm not quite sure how they fit in the long term picture.  

As to starting pitching - I expect Ryan to avoid his normal 2nd half slump and Bradley to continue to become a low end #1, high end #2 pitcher.   Someone like a Gray would really create a nice trio of starting pitchers.   Lopez would replace Gray for 2027.   

Twins win the division and win the 1st round in the playoffs losing in the 2nd round as the hitters can't quite compete with more professional ball clubs.   

[Vanimal46]

31 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

trading for Sonny Gray and Chapman is the ideal scenario.

The problem with this scenario is the money owed to both in 2027. Sonny Gray has a $10 million buyout, and Aroldis Chapman has a $13 million price tag that kicks in next year if he pitches another 12 innings this year. 

I would be shocked if Tom P is willing to fork over $23 million for a 39 year old Chapman, and Gray who likely won't be on the team next year. 

[Vanimal46]

I think they'll acquire 2-3 expiring contract pitchers since the Pohlads are adamant about competing this year...

Relief options like Kirby Yates, AJ Minter, Danny Coloumbe and another starter like Brady Singer. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

7 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The problem with this scenario is the money owed to both in 2027. Sonny Gray has a $10 million buyout, and Aroldis Chapman has a $13 million price tag that kicks in next year if he pitches another 12 innings this year. 

I would be shocked if Tom P is willing to fork over $23 million for a 39 year old Chapman, and Gray who likely won't be on the team next year. 

I think you take Chapman at $13 million for next year and smile all the Way.   As to Gray,  I didn't know that and that is extremely interesting.   I thought the contract was done.  $30 million mutual option - or $10 million buyout.  The buyout is occuring unless Tom feels he has the money and they do a 2 year extension at $40-$50 million.  I would rather the money goes to Joe Ryan as an extension, or Pablo Lopez with injury concerns.  

[Mike Sixel]

Game threads will be filled with over the top anger bat by bat. That's my prediction. 

My less confident prediction is that they finish just below .500, as fangraphs predicted, and they lose Jeffers for nothing. 

No elite rookies debut, other than Rodriguez. 

[jorgenswest]

32 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

they lose Jeffers for nothing. 

It isn’t nothing to me. These games matter. The joy of watching the 162 far outweighs hopes at a future playoff chance for me. I would trade Jeffers for an FV50 otherwise I would prefer they keep him.

[Mike Sixel]

23 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

It isn’t nothing to me. These games matter. The joy of watching the 162 far outweighs hopes at a future playoff chance for me. I would trade Jeffers for an FV50 otherwise I would prefer they keep him.

That's fair, but you knew what I meant. They lose Jeffers after the year, and get nothing at that point. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Game threads will be filled with over the top anger bat by bat. That's my prediction. 

My less confident prediction is that they finish just below .500, as fangraphs predicted, and they lose Jeffers for nothing. 

No elite rookies debut, other than Rodriguez. 

Que sera, sera.

[Dave Borton]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I think you take Chapman at $13 million for next year and smile all the Way. ..

You are spending Tom's beans, not Iowa soy. Oof-dah. 

Plus, I wouldn't put Chapman in any clubhouse.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I think you take Chapman at $13 million for next year and smile all the Way. 

An organizational philosophy I've agreed with in the Falvey/Zoll regime is not spending big money on relief pitching. As consistent as Chapman has been in his career, the position itself is still ripe for SSS. I'm not too comfortable making a $13 million bet on a 39 year old reliever.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

An organizational philosophy I've agreed with in the Falvey/Zoll regime is not spending big money on relief pitching. As consistent as Chapman has been in his career, the position itself is still ripe for SSS. I'm not too comfortable making a $13 million bet on a 39 year old reliever.

Diaz - $23 mil  AAV

Williams - $17 million AAV 

Suarez -  $15 million AAV

Weaver - $11 million AAV

Pagan  - $10 million AAV 

 

I get what you are saying.  I really wanted Dominguez and he has a 4.41 ERA.  So is Chapman going into his 39 year - yes.  Relievers seem to be able to keep performing at an older age but I think he could still do solid.  In either case going after a reliever and a starter pitcher is still what I see they will do.  The punting on relievers experiment actually appears to be working out ok for this year all things considered.  Yes they have the worst ERA, but they aren't the worst at blowing leads and they seem to be strengthening the bullpen with more reinforcements coming into play.  Morris and Gomez seem like really good finds.  

[Vanimal46]

20 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I get what you are saying.  I really wanted Dominguez and he has a 4.41 ERA.  So is Chapman going into his 39 year - yes.  Relievers seem to be able to keep performing at an older age but I think he could still do solid.  In either case going after a reliever and a starter pitcher is still what I see they will do.  The punting on relievers experiment actually appears to be working out ok for this year all things considered.  Yes they have the worst ERA, but they aren't the worst at blowing leads and they seem to be strengthening the bullpen with more reinforcements coming into play.  Morris and Gomez seem like really good finds.  

In fairness to Chapman, it’s pretty amazing he’s pitched this long without a major injury, and he’s still throwing upper 90s gas. 

As far as this deadline, I envision a deadline like 2019 when we acquired Sergio Romo and the other dude that was broken goods. Getting some guys with playoff experience would really help if we somehow snuck into the wild card. Acquiring guys like Kirby Yates or AJ Minter I would guess costs around the 20th best prospect in our system. 

[mrmpls]

73--89  was my pre-season prediction -- bet big $$,  under 74   next 3 weeks  should give us all a idea - watching the bullpen and moves going forward its gonna be fun to watch,   need 2-3  decent arms ,  Morris seems to be the real deal-  Gomez i fear will hit a rough patch- Go Twins!!

[amjgt]

11 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

The problem with this scenario is the money owed to both in 2027. Sonny Gray has a $10 million buyout, and Aroldis Chapman has a $13 million price tag that kicks in next year if he pitches another 12 innings this year. 

I would be shocked if Tom P is willing to fork over $23 million for a 39 year old Chapman, and Gray who likely won't be on the team next year. 

The $10M buyout just feels like part of the negotiation with the Red Sox. The Twins eating all of that would mean much less prospect capital being given up because $20M (what he’s owed this year + the 10M buyout) probably slides him into negative value territory. 

 

[amjgt]

Very tough to pull off, but something like this three act play could be interesting:

1. Trade Joe Ryan

2. Trade for Sonny Gray

3. Extend Pablo

The timing of #3 isn’t super important other than to soothe the minds of fans 

 

Sorry… I’m off topic from the thread.

84-80 - 3rd wild card - Culpepper is called up around Aug 1 and has an 830 OPS - Two good RP added at trade deadline - Joe Ryan not traded and 4th in Cy Young voting - Buxton 6th in MVP voting.