What Should We Expect from Minnesota Twins in Jeremy Zoll's First Draft in Charge?

[Mike Sixel]

10 hours ago, Sam Caulder said:

Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The 2026 MLB Draft gets underway on Saturday, and for the first time since 2017, the Twins will execute their strategy without Derek Falvey leading the room. That responsibility now belongs to Jeremy Zoll, who took over when Falvey parted ways with the team at the end of January. Every front office has certain player traits it values more than others. Sometimes it's power. Sometimes it's athleticism. Sometimes it's command over velocity. Over the last decade, Falvey's drafts revealed a few clear patterns. The question now is whether those patterns continue under Zoll, or whether we start to see some subtle philosophical changes.

If you look back at the Falvey era, one trend stands out: the Twins heavily prioritized premium defensive positions in the first round. Seven of their nine first-round picks under Falvey were either shortstops, starting pitchers, or center fielders. The only exceptions were Trevor Larnach and Aaron Sabato. That's not exactly a surprising strategy. Premium positions are generally viewed as the most valuable, because those players can always move down the defensive spectrum if necessary. A shortstop can become a second or third baseman; a center fielder can move to a corner outfield spot; and a starting pitcher can always end up in the bullpen. The opposite isn't true.

It's a philosophy that plenty of organizations share. Whether those choices have produced the results the Twins hoped for is another discussion. Some picks have become potential cornerstones of the organization, while others have fallen well short of expectations. Larnach has developed into a solid major-league left fielder. Walker Jenkins still looks every bit like one of baseball's top prospects. Kaelen Culpepper and Marek Houston have both gotten off to impressive starts in professional baseball and appear to have bright futures. On the other hand, Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee haven't quite lived up to the lofty expectations that come with being top-10 overall selections, while Aaron Sabato still hasn't reached the majors and Keoni Cavaco is now playing independent baseball.

Every organization misses in the draft, so this isn't about saying Falvey's approach was right or wrong. The more interesting question is whether Jeremy Zoll shares those preferences. That starts with this year's draft.

There's a very good chance the Twins continue targeting premium positions in the first round. In fact, this year's class almost sets up perfectly for that. The top two players on many draft boards are prep shortstop Grady Emerson and UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky. Another prep shortstop, Jacob Lombard, has also been linked near the top of the draft, while college right-hander Jackson Flora is another player who could hear his name called early. If the Twins stick to the same positional philosophy they've shown over the last decade, they'll have plenty of options.

Where things could become more interesting is how Zoll values certain player traits. One thing that always stood out during the Falvey era was the type of hitters the Twins seemed to gravitate toward. They consistently targeted players with advanced hit tools and raw power, but with questions about either their ability to access that power in games or their plate discipline.

Jenkins fits that description; so does Lee. Luke Keaschall and Houston fall into that category, as well. None of those players entered the draft with massive power projection. Instead, they profiled as hitters who consistently put the ball in play and hit line drives. That's been a pretty clear organizational preference.

The same could be said on the pitching side. Falvey's front office often leaned toward high-upside arms, even if they came with a little more risk. Riley Quick, Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto, James Ellwanger–they're all talented pitchers with legitimate upside, but each entered pro ball carrying some significant level of uncertainty. Maybe it was inconsistent command, an injury history, or maybe they were simply raw and needed significant development. Whatever the case, it always seemed like the Twins believed in their pitching development group and their ability to maximize those arms once they entered the organization. That confidence showed up in the players they selected. Will Zoll see things the same way?

Personally, I don't think we should expect a complete overhaul. The Twins still have Sean Johnson leading the scouting department, and much like Falvey did, Zoll will likely rely heavily on the evaluations coming from that group. It's not as though Johnson is suddenly going to throw out years of scouting philosophy because there's a new president of baseball operations. Organizations don't typically operate that way.

But at the same time, every executive has certain traits they value a little more than someone else. Maybe Zoll is more willing to chase power at the plate, and maybe he prefers pitchers with cleaner deliveries and better command over pure velocity. Beyond skill sets, there are questions of draft philsophy to consider, more broadly. Will Zoll have a different idea of how best to spread the money the team spends among its picks in the top 10 rounds? Will he have a firmer or more flexible stance with players and agents demanding huge bonuses?

That's what makes this weekend's draft so intriguing. It's the first real opportunity to see Zoll put his fingerprints on one of the most important responsibilities that comes with running a baseball organization. The people making many of the evaluations are still in place. The overall philosophy has produced plenty of talented prospects, even if not every first-round pick has worked out. There may be some subtle tweaks, and there may be a different emphasis on certain player traits. But if you're expecting Zoll to completely reinvent the Twins' draft strategy in his very first year, you're probably going to be disappointed. The differences, if they exist, will probably be much smaller than that.

 

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Brooks would be a top ten 3rd baseman if he played there all year, and not short, this year. What's your expectation?

[DataNerd]

4 hours ago, amjgt said:

Obviously there is some risk in playing that game, but we'd just end up with the #4 pick next year (I think), so there isn't THAT big of a risk. 

At a certain point, you've got to stick to your guns. 

There is risk to the Twins, but there is much more of a risk to the player.  They enter pro ball at least 1 year later, potentially delaying FA.  An injury could tank their draft stock, as well as not performing as well as expected.  Meanwhile the Twins get the #4 pick, which may be better next year than this year (which is what our current pick effectively would be if we got bullied down).

[tony&rodney]

No way to be correct on draft picks. A few writers have suggested (and it was mentioned in a comment here on TD) that Emerson is the best high school pick since Bobby Witt Jr. There is no way Emerson turns out as good simply because he isn't as fast or have as big an arm. There is also the fact that Konnor Griffin was the #9 pick in 2024 and is doing well with Pittsburgh this season (currently out with an injury). Griffin had a spectacular first full season of pro ball in 2025 that ranks with the best ever from first year players. I'm hoping the Twins take BPA and have good luck with the development process, but will not expect the #3 pick this year to play as a regular until 2028 or later. There are a number of picks that will be really good, so the draft is exciting.

[Otaknam]

I wonder if they would take Flora at number three, given his upside as a top of the rotation starter. As we know, you never have enough starting pitching. Otherwise, whomever is left from Emerson or Lackey seem like the choice. As for Marek, Houston, let’s hope he keeps hitting because being a great fielding shortstop doesn’t verify your number one draft status if you can’t hit and show some power. But I like his results so far, and he can steal a base too, a skill that would be lost if Rocco was still the manager.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Brooks would be a top ten 3rd baseman if he played there all year, and not short, this year. What's your expectation?

Lee has posted negative OAA, FRV and rPM at 3B. He's neutral in DRS, but he'll be negative by year end. He has a weak arm and below average range. He's not going to be a good 3B, but he'll probably be serviceable.

3B list from Fangraphs. Lee is 17th of 23 which is close to bottom quartile. That's with a lot of luck at the plate. My expectation is by the end of the year Lee will have 0.5 WAR or less.

[bean5302]

Falvey has made a number of major changes to his drafting philosophy over the years as he failed over and over again. As Falvey failed, the coaches would get the blame and sent packing along with a changed draft/development strategy implementation. 

I'm not sure about Zoll, but from what I've seen, he's Derek Falvey 2.0. The same types of methodology this front office has always employed continued after Falvey's firing and during the season.

For example, Falvey avoided drafting pitchers high in early years, preferring to concentrate on bat only mashers (Rooker, Larnach, Sabato, Wallner).

Later, Falvey increasingly focused on high contact and more athletic players and was much more aggressive in the pitching area. This corresponded with moves away from the 3 outcome hitters the Twins had been trying to build around and the failure to develop any quality pitching.

Just have to see what happens.

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, amjgt said:

Obviously there is some risk in playing that game, but we'd just end up with the #4 pick next year (I think), so there isn't THAT big of a risk. 

At a certain point, you've got to stick to your guns. 

Very little risk. What is that player going to do? Say no because the Giants offered them a hypothetical 15 mil? Well, they aren't getting that 15 mil next year so are they going to pass on the 10ish mil this year? Roch and Lackey would be seniors with no leverage and Emerson would either have to go to JUCO or wouldn't even be eligible to be drafted again next year and then would have to perform in college for 3 years to get top 3 money in 3 years.

The Giants can make whatever promises they want, they have very little ability to really impact things, though.

[old nurse]

The scouting director is unchanged, the outcomes in the draft are likely unchanged. Now if you want to claim they should be moving on from Johnson, an argument for that would require a little research beyond one cherry picked stat 

Premium defensive positions in the amateur and now semipro part of baseball have always had the premium athletes. No wonder they get drafted fist. One would think a baseball writer would know that. The bat first player will get drafted later.  Organization wise they long ago drifted from the 3 outcome hitter. Finding that 40 HR guy wasn’t going to be easy. 

[Possumlad]

Article from the Twins site today re: the draft: https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/twins-2026-draft-preview

Really leans in to the "clear top 3" narrative, with a brief mention of Lombard & Flora at the end. 

Maybe I'm assuming too much, but to me it would be odd to me if the Twins website posted an article from their own beat reporter about the the top 3 being such a clear group if they were considering anyone outside of that. Could be wrong of course. But would be an odd bait & switch for the fanbase. Then again maybe there's no coordination whatsoever between team & MLB.com reporters.

[twinstalker]

Sean Johnson is still the draft coordinator, and the Pohlahds are still the owners.  It doesn't matter whether it's Falvey or Zoll, the draft will most likely be a clusterF.  If Cholowsky is there, and the Twins don't take him because of some sort of "threat," then we really have no reason to be fans.