The 2017 MLB Draft Was Full of Landmines, and the Twins Stepped on One

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

When the Minnesota Twins selected Royce Lewis with the first overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, the organization believed it was taking the highest-upside position player available. Nearly a decade later, the results have been frustrating, complicated, and increasingly difficult to defend.

Last week, the Twins officially optioned Lewis to Triple-A after a brutal opening stretch to the 2026 season. In 31 games, Lewis slashed just .163/.261/.279 while producing only six extra-base hits. For a player once viewed as a franchise cornerstone, the performance became impossible for the organization to ignore.

The frustrating part is that Lewis has shown flashes of being exactly what the Twins hoped he could become. Injuries interrupted multiple seasons, but when healthy, he looked like an explosive middle-of-the-order bat capable of carrying an offense. Those stretches are why he has still managed to accumulate 3.7 rWAR for his career, ranking 10th among first-round selections from the 2017 draft class.

Unfortunately, most of that value came earlier in his career. Right now, Lewis looks lost offensively, overaggressive at the plate, and short on confidence. The Twins are hoping a reset in St. Paul can help him rediscover the version of himself that once looked destined for superstardom.

Still, the bigger picture surrounding the 2017 draft is important context. In hindsight, the Twins may have been trapped in a no-win situation, no matter which direction they chose.

Let’s revisit the names that followed Lewis near the top of the draft board.

RHP Hunter Greene
The Cincinnati Reds selected Greene second overall and handed him the largest signing bonus in the draft at $7.23 million. When healthy, Greene has absolutely looked like the best player from the class. He has accumulated 13.3 rWAR, the highest total among all first-round picks from 2017, thanks to overpowering stuff and ace-level flashes. If the Twins could redo the draft today, Greene is probably the choice.

But that comes with a giant asterisk. Injuries have constantly interrupted his career. Greene underwent an elbow procedure this March and is expected to miss 14-16 weeks. Last season, he also missed more than two months because of a groin strain. The talent is undeniable, but durability concerns have followed him since the moment he entered professional baseball.

LHP MacKenzie Gore
The San Diego Padres went with Gore third overall, betting heavily on a high-school left-handed pitcher. That’s always a terrifying profile at the top of the draft, especially for a small-market organization that can’t afford a complete miss. Gore eventually found success after being traded to Washington, earning his first All-Star appearance last season while posting a career-best 3.0 rWAR campaign.

This year has been a different story. Through 10 starts with Texas, Gore owns a 76 ERA+ and -0.1 rWAR. His career has featured massive swings in performance, and it’s easy to understand why the Twins avoided prep pitching at the top of the board altogether. Minnesota likely viewed both Greene and Gore as too risky for the first overall selection.

1B/RHP Brendan McKay
Few players in the draft generated more intrigue than McKay, the Louisville two-way standout selected fourth overall by Tampa Bay. McKay was dominant on both sides of the ball in college, posting a .966 OPS while also recording a 2.23 ERA across three collegiate seasons. Tampa Bay gave him a $7 million signing bonus, another total that exceeded Lewis’s deal.

It never came together professionally. Injuries completely derailed McKay’s development. He appeared in only 13 major-league games as a pitcher, and his last professional appearance came in Double-A during the 2024 season. Considering the expectations attached to him entering the draft, McKay would have been an even more painful outcome for Minnesota than Lewis has become.

RHP Kyle Wright
The Atlanta Braves selected Wright fifth overall after a dominant college career at Vanderbilt. He was viewed as one of the safer collegiate arms in the class and eventually delivered at least one excellent season. In 2022, Wright won 21 games for Atlanta while posting a 128 ERA+ over 180 innings. For a moment, it looked like the Braves had landed a frontline starter.

Since then, his career has stalled out. Wright has bounced between multiple organizations in recent years, including the Royals and Cubs organizations. He hasn’t appeared in a major-league game this season, and last year he split time between Double-A and Triple-A.

That’s the reality of this draft class. Even some of the “successful” picks came with major caveats. The painful truth for the Twins is that the top of the 2017 MLB Draft was loaded with warning signs. Nearly every option carried significant risk, whether it was injuries, inconsistency, stalled development, or outright collapse.

Minnesota chose the player it believed offered the best combination of upside and long-term value. At times, Lewis absolutely justified that belief. There were stretches where he looked like a future superstar capable of changing the direction of the franchise.

Right now, though, something clearly isn’t working. The Twins are hoping this stint in Triple-A becomes a reset instead of a farewell. Because while the 2017 draft may have been full of landmines, Minnesota still needs Royce Lewis to prove he isn’t one that permanently blew up their future plans.

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If the Twins could repick, who would they take with the first overall selection? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Eris]

On Royce Lewis.  Sometime injuries are just the result of bad luck.  If I recall correctly, Lewis' first ACL injury happened while slipping on ice--an incident that seemed so minor that Lewis did not realize that he tore his ACL and it was discovered after experiencing general knee soreness during spring training.  Very few MLB players have had 2 ACL restorations on the same knee and this is also his plant leg.  It is quite likely that Lewis will never be the player he could have been without the injuries (and we will never really know).  

On Hunter Greene.  He also had Tommy John surgery in 2018.  Although that does not change the assessment that he has had the most career WAR to date.  Additionally, Hunter Greene could have been a position player (SS/3B) as well.

[bean5302]

per baseballcube, 2017 1st round draft.

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/draft_year/2017/

1. 4.6 fWAR. That's a success. Not a home run, but a success.
2. 10.2 fWAR.
3. 9.1 fWAR
4. Fail
5. 1.9 fWAR
6.  Fail
7. 1.4 fWAR
8. Fail
9. 2.0 fWAR
10. Fail
11. 4.8 fWAR
12. 4.2 fWAR
13. 10.6 fWAR
14. Fail
15. Fail
16. 5.3 fWAR
17. Fail
18. Fail
19. 3.3 fWAR
20. 9.5 fWAR
21. 1.5 fWAR
22. Fail
23. Fail
24. 8.2 fWAR
25. Fail
26. Fail
27. Fail
28. Fail
29. Fail
30. Fail
31. 10.5 fWAR
32. Fail
33. Fail
34. Fail
35. 8.7 fWAR - Brent Rooker
36. Fail

Lewis has superior value over 26 of the 36 first rounders. 72nd percentile so far.  Fail is anything under 1.0 career fWAR

[Trov]

When you look at the whole draft there has been no real great players.  Even some of the all-stars taken later in draft are only all-stars by mostly defaults by nature of needing one. This was just a bad draft it looks like.  No real long term all-star or possible HOF type guys.  

[CoachDW]

Those top five picks indeed ended up being pretty underwhelming, as were most picks in the first two rounds of that 2017 draft.

There were some intriguing players picked later in the first round of the draft, including Jo Adell (10), Jake Burger (11), Shane Baz (12), Trevor Rogers (13), Clarke Schmidt (16), Heliot Ramos (19), Tanner Houck (24), and Drew Rasmussen (31). The Twins used a first-round compensation pick to select Brent Rooker (35). Some good major league players on the list, some All-Stars (including Rooker, but alas, not with the Twins), but no real superstars.

The second round included Luis Campusano (39), Griffin Canning (47), Gavin Sheets (49), MJ Melendez (52), Mark Vientos (59) and Daulton Varsho (68). Any of those would have been much better draft choices than who the Twins took with the very first pick of the second round - high school righthander Landon Leach (37). Ouch.

All in all, 2017 was a pretty slim draft, but the Twins could have had better than what they ended up with over those first two rounds.  

[Danchat]

Wright was the guy I wanted, he did provide some value but he fell off a steep cliff... like most the others. I never got the fascination with McKay as a high pick.

Too bad we got nothing from Enlow, IIRC they spent most the money that they saved by drafting Lewis by paying him overslot. The MLB draft is such a crapshoot, seemed like it was a decent gamble to try to hit on one of the two of Lewis or Enlow than putting their eggs into one basket.

[Patzky]

23 minutes ago, Trov said:

When you look at the whole draft there has been no real great players.  Even some of the all-stars taken later in draft are only all-stars by mostly defaults by nature of needing one. This was just a bad draft it looks like.  No real long term all-star or possible HOF type guys.  

Only a few even move the needle.. Jo Adell tenth for Anaheim, probably the best outcome besides Greene and early Lewis.

[mnfireman]

Skubal, Crochet and Strider all were drafted in the later rounds of the 2017 draft but chose not to sign...

[mnfireman]

Ober (12th round) has the most bWAR (10.5) any Twins drafted player from that draft.

[DataNerd]

43 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Too bad we got nothing from Enlow, IIRC they spent most the money that they saved by drafting Lewis by paying him overslot. The MLB draft is such a crapshoot, seemed like it was a decent gamble to try to hit on one of the two of Lewis or Enlow than putting their eggs into one basket.

Looking back at Enlow, I wonder if he wouldn't be nearly as well regarded with today's data/knowledge.  Scouts loved his curveball, but he didn't have elite spinrates on it.  Not that you absolutely need them to succeed, but he was only facing HS hitters and never got the whiffs that an elite curveball should.  Velo also didn't develop nearly as hoped

[Dman]

Yeah Gore was my pick in that draft.  A potential ace lefty for a pitching starved Twins at the time.  I was OK with the Lewis pick with the spending going to Enlow.  I never liked the Helium Leach pick as there were a ton of better options there IMO.  

I wasn't as high on Greene as some. I always felt TJ was in his future and didn't see the arm holding up for him.  I did think Wright was the safe arm pick in that draft and that did not work out either.  Like many McKay seemed like a decent bet to bust. I thought his bat Miiight save him, but I was wrong there too.

It's amazing that there is an over 50% fail rate in the first round including comp picks.  Granted most were later in the first round.  Players still have time up that fWar, but still it looks like a pretty bad draft in general.