Let's reward Joe Ryan with a little extension

[AlLagoon]

The guy has been a bargain from day 1. He's arbitration eligible through 2027, becomes a free agent 2028, at which point he will be 31. I'd buy out a couple years of free agency, something like 8, 10, 12 , 14: nice payday for him, and some cost-controlled bedrock in the rotation to build on.

Win/win for Joe, immense wealth, chance for more at 33 years old.

What say you?

[Cory Engelhardt]

17 minutes ago, AlLagoon said:

The guy has been a bargain from day 1. He's arbitration eligible through 2027, becomes a free agent 2028, at which point he will be 31. I'd buy out a couple years of free agency, something like 8, 10, 12 , 14: nice payday for him, and some cost-controlled bedrock in the rotation to build on.

Win/win for Joe, immense wealth, chance for more at 33 years old.

What say you?

Double those numbers and maybe you get closer. But I’d be open to it too.

[Parfigliano]

20 minutes ago, AlLagoon said:

The guy has been a bargain from day 1. He's arbitration eligible through 2027, becomes a free agent 2028, at which point he will be 31. I'd buy out a couple years of free agency, something like 8, 10, 12 , 14: nice payday for him, and some cost-controlled bedrock in the rotation to build on.

Win/win for Joe, immense wealth, chance for more at 33 years old.

What say you?

He will not accept.  If this year is comparable to last year someone will pay him 30 mil or more a year starting in 1st year free agency.

[The Great Hambino]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Double those numbers and maybe you get closer. But I’d be open to it too.

I don't think that would even do it.

Max Fried got 8 years, $218 million.  Ryan maybe (probably?) won't get all of that, but he won't be too far off.

He's certainly not going to lock himself in to playing for considerably less than a qualifying offer

[Linus]

There is zero chance the Twins are going to pay Joe what he will get in free agency and I don’t blame them. Thats why you trade him now. Let’s also not forget Joe hasn’t been an iron man on the mound. For the record, he is my favorite Twins pitcher. 

[tony&rodney]

If I'm Joe Ryan the numbers begin at $30M for 6 years ($180M), for 2026-2030 seasons. The odds at the Twins signing Ryan are near 1%. Not much to discuss about Ryan. He has enough money right now to live his life. Good health, good luck, and personal choice will determine where he goes.

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, AlLagoon said:

The guy has been a bargain from day 1. He's arbitration eligible through 2027, becomes a free agent 2028, at which point he will be 31. I'd buy out a couple years of free agency, something like 8, 10, 12 , 14: nice payday for him, and some cost-controlled bedrock in the rotation to build on.

Win/win for Joe, immense wealth, chance for more at 33 years old.

What say you?

He's too close to free agency to get a big bargain on him like you're suggesting. The Twins extended Pablo Lopez for 4yrs and $73.5MM in a similar situation (though Lopez had more reason to take the deal because he'd be a free agent again at 31). Your numbers would drive a rift into the relationship and be seen as an absolute insult.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Reason number 9,286 why this off-season has been so completely and profoundly frustrating. The Twins HAVE to do something with Ryan by the trade deadline, either extend or trade. They won’t extend and every team in MLB knows it. Waiting loses leverage in trade, because the time and competitors for the trade, as well as loss of QO, reduces the return on trade.

how aggravating 

[stringer bell]

Joe Ryan is a very good pitcher and he's gotten better as his career has continued.. Barring serious injury, he's going to get really big money on his one major trip through free agency. I don't blame any mid- to small-market team for not signing guys like Ryan to monster contracts. He is going to be 32 for most of his first free agent year and not a lot of guys are worth the dollars Ryan will command for performing in their mid-30s.

With two full years before free agency and a relatively low salary, he is worth far more than the Twins will have to pay him, hence his high trade value. I don't think it is giving up even this year if Ryan is traded for some combination of prospects and major league ready players. Moving four guys up one step in the starter hierarchy isn't the blow it has been in other years.

I do think chances for an extension, particularly with the possibility of a work stoppage next year, are remote. I honestly think the Twins should bite the bullet and get a boatload of return for Joe and perhaps deal him to a team that has a better chance to win a World Series. 

[amjgt]

I could see a scenario where and guy of Joe Ryan's ability, paired with his injury history would be open to a huge payday that buys out a few years of free agency. I can also see, from the Twins perspective, not really wanting to be tied in to a big contract beyond 2029. I like the idea of 4 years, but as has been stated, the original post numbers are woefully small.

Could Joe get 30M per year over like 6 years if he keeps doing what he's doing and stays healthy? Absolutely. But those are both unknowns. 2 years is a long time to avoid injuries as a pitcher. 

So, what would Joe accept?

Would 4/80 get it done? Maybe not quite, but at 4/90 you might be offering him more than he's willing to refuse. Smooth out those numbers however you like, but that's essentially 10/20/30/30.

Now, would the Twins do that? I suspect not. But that's probably in the ballpark of what it would take.

 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have options, they really do. The best options come off the table as teams fill their needs where Joe Ryan fits. We know the future is uncertain regarding health. Ryan knows that as well. He almost certainly has definite ideas of where he would be willing to work. We don't really know those thoughts. We can guess that a team in California is an option. We can guess that a team with some offense and players who can catch the ball might be important as well. Why wouldn't those be desirable? The Twins are not based in California and have neither much offense nor much close to adequate for a defense. Joe Ryan may be my favorite player to watch on the Twins team (he is), but I cannot envision any way for the Twins to keep him. 

Currently Ryan may be difficult to trade for value as most teams have filled their rosters. Only Detroit and West Sacramento remain as obvious landing spots. The players the Twins would need to inquire about from those teams may not be in play, either now or later. There is a small chance that adding one or two good players with Ryan might keep a hoped for conversation alive. I just doubt that the Twins are engaging in any discussions related to Ryan. Perhaps a draft choice in 2028 is the very best option as far as the Twins viewpoint.  Hard to say. At this point the Twins best strategy may be to wait until some teams that wish to win suffer a rash of significant injuries to their starting pitchers and see Joe Ryan, who is pitching at his best ever level, as worth chasing.

Any talks of an extension by the Twins seems completely unrealistic to me, based on the teams reluctance to spend money at market prices and what would seem to be a rational guess about the ideas Joe Ryan himself has for his employment.