Twins Search for Draft Lottery Luck, While Reflecting on a Complicated Top-10 Track Record

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins enter Tuesday’s MLB Draft Lottery with the second-best odds at securing the No. 1 overall pick, and they are guaranteed to select in the top 10 for the 2026 MLB Draft. 

It's a rare opportunity for a club that has spent most of the past decade trying to compete while still building internally. Any time a front office gets access to elite amateur talent, the stakes rise. Minnesota’s recent history with premium picks shows promise in some places, frustration in others, and plenty of room for debate, as the club prepares for what could be a franchise-shaping selection.

Here’s a look back at Minnesota’s recent track record with top-10 picks and how those players have developed in the team’s farm system.

2023 MLB Draft: OF Walker Jenkins (5th Overall Pick)
Minnesota used the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft on outfielder Jenkins, and his rapid rise through the system has earned him national attention. In many other draft classes, he likely would have been the first overall pick. Few prospects reach Triple A as 20-year-olds, and players who do often develop into above-average big-league regulars. 

Jenkins has shown advanced bat speed and a mature approach, but he is still an unfinished product. Last season, he posted a 135 wRC+ in 84 games. There are no guarantees in prospect development, though, and the Twins will need patience as he adjusts to the highest levels of the minors. His trajectory is encouraging, but stardom is not yet assured.

2022 MLB Draft: SS Brooks Lee (8th Overall Pick)
One year before Jenkins, the Twins grabbed college shortstop Lee with the eighth overall pick. His plus hit tool turned him into one of the fastest-moving prospects in baseball, and helped him reach the major leagues ahead of schedule. Minnesota pushed him to Triple-A St. Paul in his first full professional season, and he made his MLB debut in 2024.  

That intriguingly natural feel for hitting has yet to translate to production in his early MLB returns. Over the last two seasons, Lee has posted a 75 OPS+ in 189 games. He's slated to open next season as Minnesota’s starting shortstop, and that comes with pressure on both sides of the ball. The organization still believes his approach and swing will win out in the long run, but it is fair to say he has been more frustrating than fulfilling so far. His upcoming season may be one of the most critical individual storylines on the roster.

2017 MLB Draft: SS Royce Lewis (1st Overall)
Lewis was Derek Falvey’s first premium draft choice as chief of Twins baseball operations, when they selected him first overall in 2017. The Twins took Lewis over a group that included Hunter Greene, Brendan McKay, and MacKenzie Gore, ultimately signing him to an underslot deal to distribute additional money to the rest of the class. 

For stretches, that decision looked brilliant. Lewis has flashed superstar ability, launching big home runs and showcasing a dynamic skill set that few players can match. The trouble, of course, is that injuries and inconsistent playing time have made it difficult for the Twins to view him as their long-term anchor. Last season, he played in a career-high 106 games but posted an 83 OPS+. Lewis remains a fascinating talent whose next chapter could swing the team’s overall trajectory.

Looking Back at the Previous Regime’s Track Record
Before the current front office took over, Minnesota went through a stretch of four straight top-10 picks under Terry Ryan. The results were uninspiring, except for one undeniable success story. 

Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, and Kohl Stewart were all selected in the top six picks, but none developed into cornerstone players. Gordon provided some big-league value, but not enough to justify his draft spot. Stewart never found traction. Jay moved to the bullpen and battled injuries. 

Byron Buxton, selected second overall in 2012, became the exception. When healthy, he has played at an MVP level and turned into a franchise icon. Without Buxton’s success, that run of picks would be remembered far more harshly.

The MLB Draft remains one of the most unpredictable talent pipelines in sports. Variability in development, wide gaps in competition levels, and the number of professional levels a player must climb after being drafted before getting to the majors all contribute to uncertainty.

Still, teams must hit on top-10 picks if they want sustained success—especially teams like Minnesota, who operate with a below-average payroll. Minnesota’s recent record shows both optimism and caution as it prepares for a potentially pivotal selection in 2026. With the lottery approaching and talent evaluations underway, the Twins know this opportunity does not come around often. The true test will be turning a premium pick into a premium player.

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What stands out about Minnesota’s recent top-10 picks? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

No love for Ryan Mills or BJ Garbe or Adam Johnson I see? :)

[Hubie29]

17 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

No love for Ryan Mills or BJ Garbe or Adam Johnson I see? :)

Calm down, calm down! (Mike Tice)

[jmlease1]

Twins have a pretty rough record on first round picks in the top 10.

24 picks in total. 4 that were signed and at least mostly worked out? Jay Bell (traded, but the pick was good), Michael Cuddyer, Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton and 3 with the jury still out (Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Walker Jenkins). Not great. Next guy on the list is Todd Walker (12 year career, 10.5 bWAR), which ain't great. Couple of pitchers we drafted and failed to sign, which is a big fail.

The Buxton, Stewart, Gordon, Jay quad shows that tanking for picks/prospects can really crap out as we hit 1 out of 4 top 10 guys and 3 were top 5. The 5 year run that yielded failing to sign Travis Lee, and missing on Mills, Garbe, and Johnson (Cuddyer was good at least) was brutal too.

Missing on picks like this is really bad for a franchise. Missing on a bunch of high picks certainly hampered the Mauer Era; they botched high picks before Mauer and outside of Span missed on a lot of low firsts after.

A top pick here really will make a difference...one way or another.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Which franchises  have been steadily successful in their draft selections from season 2015 through season 2024? The Astros have had the most top 10 draftees play in the majors at 51, followed by the Dodgers with 47. The next most with 45 is the Twins. (A proviso: I submit that the worse the team's record, the more chance that young players have to be promoted to the big leagues.) The Astros also  lead in fWAR from these top ten drafts over this ten year period at 110.4, followed by Cardinals, Orioles, Dodgers, Rays, D-Backs and Braves. The Twins rank 9th at 61.6. Keep in mind Falvey was with the Guardians from 2007 to November  2016 (one year) and with the Twins for 9 of these years. I submit that's not too shabby.

[bunsen82]

First off you have to consider, baseball is the toughest sport to assess talent.  Secondly not all drafts or prospects are made the same.  A top 5 pick in the 2024 draft was not the same as a top 5 pick in the 2023 draft.  As of now the 2025 draft is being assessed as a really good draft class, better than 2024 not quite as good as 2023.  

As of now the 2025 draft has 1 clear cut stud in Roch Cholowsky,  and several other really good prospects.  As of now it looks like a really good top 4 with Lebron, Emerson and Lombard.   Pitching seems to change drastically in the draft.   If you think back to the 2023 draft.  In January the big name was Dollander.  Skenes was in the top 10 but he hadn't blown up to be potentially the best pitcher of this century.   

As to the odds of which pick,  22% is better than normal.  If we don't get the 1st pick we want the White Sox to get it so it increases our odds to 30% per a pick.  Ideally we want a top 4 pick (that was our record this year - we will see how it unfolds).  

[Nashvilletwin]

Hope we at least hold serve today and nab one of the top two picks.  Then we select either Cholowsky or Lebron.  Both project as 2028 starting middle infielders or 3B with all star potential.

Dream infield in ‘28:

Houston with the slick glove at SS. 
Keaschall - now the veteran - at 1B. 
Culpepper at 2B. 
Cholowsky/Lebron at 3B. 
Tait at C.

Add in Jenkins, ERod and Gonzalez in the OF.

Keaschall (already up), ERod, Jenkins and possibly even Culpepper and Gonzalez see the big leagues in ‘26. The other three get brought up in the 2nd half of the strike shortened ‘27.

Seven players on rookie deals plus Keaschall starting in ‘28.  All eight have big league experience heading into that season. Plenty of cash to build the bullpen, and add a couple of starters and a vet or two (especially to be a DH or starter if a couple of them don’t pan out).

Let that core more or less play together for 3-5 years.  That’s the dream.  But at the least, as a smallish, cash constrained franchise, we need to somehow figure out how to get at least four or five of them to be above average major leaguers.

 

[LewFordLives]

4 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

No love for Ryan Mills or BJ Garbe or Adam Johnson I see? :)

You forgot Chris Parmalee.

[LewFordLives]

I think teams should be able to trade all of their draft picks. It would benefit small market clubs. Paying a $5 million bonus to a draft pick who has long odds of being a regular MLB contributor is a poor use of resources. They could trade that pick for "almost ready" prospects making league minimum.

[Cory Engelhardt]

14 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

You forgot Chris Parmalee.

He was the 20th pick that year. But absolutely he is gone but never forgotten :)

[Patzky]

6 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Twins have a pretty rough record on first round picks in the top 10.

24 picks in total. 4 that were signed and at least mostly worked out? Jay Bell (traded, but the pick was good), Michael Cuddyer, Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton and 3 with the jury still out (Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Walker Jenkins). Not great. Next guy on the list is Todd Walker (12 year career, 10.5 bWAR), which ain't great. Couple of pitchers we drafted and failed to sign, which is a big fail.

The Buxton, Stewart, Gordon, Jay quad shows that tanking for picks/prospects can really crap out as we hit 1 out of 4 top 10 guys and 3 were top 5. The 5 year run that yielded failing to sign Travis Lee, and missing on Mills, Garbe, and Johnson (Cuddyer was good at least) was brutal too.

Missing on picks like this is really bad for a franchise. Missing on a bunch of high picks certainly hampered the Mauer Era; they botched high picks before Mauer and outside of Span missed on a lot of low firsts after.

A top pick here really will make a difference...one way or another.

No Ryan Leafs..