Twins Looking For a Power Bat.

[bunsen82]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

But you're calling Roden and Martin starters this year on a team you believe can contend. You can't claim they were questionable at bats and also that they are part of why we should have hope. 

I already gave you the numbers. Of the players you've claimed were the problem and won't be getting as many PAs this year, they accounted for 17.4% of the PAs. Trying to cut it down to 1 week and change the argument isn't going to sneak past me. They were 1.5 spots in the lineup.

To be fair I am giving them a competition -  I think you can run 1 batter a game with a questionable bat,  2 max. You are running 3-4 AAAA batters a game you are going to lose a lot of games.      To be fair I said there were more players, those were just the ones off of the top of my head.   

[bunsen82]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree! The point is that they all included 7 or 8 of the guys you're now claiming are reason to believe this team will be able to contend.

I think I only have 1 questionable bat in my primary lineup?  Or am I wrong with that Chpettit - and I currently have that spot being covered by Larnach as well.  

[chpettit19]

Just now, bunsen82 said:

I think I only have 1 questionable bat in my primary lineup?  Or am I wrong with that Chpettit - and I currently have that spot being covered by Larnach as well.  

Your primary lineup was Jeffers, Clemens, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Buxton, Wallner, Roden, Larnach, and Martin.

The Twins had 2040 PAs from August 1st to the end of the season. Those 10 guys you listed accounted for 1625 of those PAs. That is 79.6% of the total PAs for the last 2 months. Meaning that, on average, there were 1 or 2 lineup spots that didn't go to one of those 10 guys for the last 2 months. You've said you can run 1 bad bat and a max of 2. Well, the Twins gave fewer than 2 lineup spots to players not on your list.

Your idea that the Twins were running out 3 or 4 guys a day for the last 2 months that you aren't now claiming can be part of a competitive lineup is wrong. The guys you're now claiming have a shot at competing were the vast majority of the PAs after the deadline.

[bunsen82]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Your primary lineup was Jeffers, Clemens, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Buxton, Wallner, Roden, Larnach, and Martin.

The Twins had 2040 PAs from August 1st to the end of the season. Those 10 guys you listed accounted for 1625 of those PAs. That is 79.6% of the total PAs for the last 2 months. Meaning that, on average, there were 1 or 2 lineup spots that didn't go to one of those 10 guys for the last 2 months. You've said you can run 1 bad bat and a max of 2. Well, the Twins gave fewer than 2 lineup spots to players not on your list.

Your idea that the Twins were running out 3 or 4 guys a day for the last 2 months that you aren't now claiming can be part of a competitive lineup is wrong. The guys you're now claiming have a shot at competing were the vast majority of the PAs after the deadline.

Roden/Larnach/Martin was 1 position.    I didn't have a DH as I believe that is the bat they plan to add to the team.   I showed the lineups.  The 1 game where they ran a AAAA lineup they won - the rest they were running 3 AAAA bats most games.  I think even you can admit the overall lineups will be better next year that what we ended with at the end of the season.  I also do think some of the players will improve and the team needed a new batting philosophy in my opinion.   We need to teach the fundamentals,  if we are going to more of a piranha approach, we have to be willing to steal, we have to lay down bunts,  we have to be able to execute a squeeze, learning to put a ball in play rather than just swing for the fence (I am looking at you Lewis).   Little things matter more than even ability in my opinion.  We will see what comes.  I do see the team ending with around 80 wins.  Not anything great.  They could end up better, they could end up a lot worse.  

[chpettit19]

Just now, bunsen82 said:

Roden/Larnach/Martin was 1 position.    I didn't have a DH as I believe that is the bat they plan to add to the team.   I showed the lineups.  The 1 game where they ran a AAAA lineup they won - the rest they were running 3 AAAA bats most games.  I think even you can admit the overall lineups will be better next year that what we ended with at the end of the season.  I also do think some of the players will improve and the team needed a new batting philosophy in my opinion.   We need to teach the fundamentals,  if we are going to more of a piranha approach, we have to be willing to steal, we have to lay down bunts,  we have to be able to execute a squeeze.   Little things matter more than even ability in my opinion.  We will see what comes.  I do see the team ending with around 80 wins.  Not anything great.  They could end up better, they could end up a lot worse.  

No, you showed 14 games worth of lineups. I gave you the entire data set. 

Why does it matter that you list it as 1 position? They're still 10 of the 13 guys they can roster. Or, if they send Roden down it's to keep Outman who's out of options. And the point remains; you're running back almost the exact same roster as the last 2 months of the season.

No, I can't admit that because I've given you the numbers and the lineups won't be significantly different. You're suggesting they add 1 bat. So now you're at 11 of 13 spots filled. The last 2 spots likely go to guys that are already on the 40-man, right? One of those will be Alex Jackson. The last one is likely Kreidler, Outman, Julien, or Fitzgerald, right?

That means you've changed 2 position player spots from the end of the season until 2026. The 1 FA bat we have to hope they add and the backup catcher. So, like I said, 90% of why you believe they can win 80ish games is because you simply expect the guys that were already here to play better. And they might. But the odds aren't great.

And I'm glad you have hope. I absolutely hope you're right. I just don't see it. "Everybody will just play better" isn't a strategy that gives me the warm and fuzzies. Especially when most of those guys are in their late 20s or 30s.

[bunsen82]

45 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 

That means you've changed 2 position player spots from the end of the season until 2026. The 1 FA bat we have to hope they add and the backup catcher. So, like I said, 90% of why you believe they can win 80ish games is because you simply expect the guys that were already here to play better. And they might. But the odds aren't great.

 

I can't tell you how the roster pans out.  I do think Larnach gets traded.  maybe with a prospect for a reliever.   It does sound like they want to add a legit veteran bat (I hope so).  Ultimately I think the lineups just by themselves will be better than what we were running out there on a nightly basis the last 2 months.  There is a difference between have 2-3 questionable bats as your bench and giving them regular run to see if they can be a positive for your team in the future vs running them more as bench players.  I am ok with Alex Jackson getting 35 games vs Vasquez at 80.  I am ok with Martin getting 60-80 games especially if the bat continues to perform.   Running a legit lineup most nights gives you a better chance to win.  Running with a legit bullpen,  will allow you to win more.  Having a SP staff that knows they have a legit chance to win,  will probably have them perform better.  Having a coaching staff that wants to win - I think Falvey told Baldelli the plan was to lose a lot of games at the end of the season.  Its also why I think Falvey felt bad when Pohlads fired him.  I am not saying it was the wrong decision.  I think it was time for new blood/old blood.  I can't say with certainty it will be better.  

You have a fair argument to say expecting players to play better doesn't give you warm fuzzies.  I think with better coaching, putting players in better situations,  and running fewer AAAA players in games they will be better offensively.  You can have your opinion I can have mine.  We generally run into this conundrum where I tend to be a little bit more rosy in my prognostications and you more pessimistic its fine.  Its just the way we see things.  

[bunsen82]

@chpettit19

I ran through the rest of the games.  Consistently 3 AAAA players in my opinion most games.  If you want to look at an ugly lineup go look at Sept28th - Martin, McCusker, Fitzgerald, Vazquez, and Outman  (oofta).  

[chpettit19]

32 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

@chpettit19

I ran through the rest of the games.  Consistently 3 AAAA players in my opinion most games.  If you want to look at an ugly lineup go look at Sept28th - Martin, McCusker, Fitzgerald, Vazquez, and Outman  (oofta).  

I'd bet there are more than 3 AAAA in most lineups according to my opinion. But I'm not the one arguing that the 10 guys you listed are a good base for a competitive MLB team. I gave you the numbers. I don't need to see all the lineups. The 10 guys you listed got essentially 80% of the PAs in August and September. My argument is that those 10 guys do not make up a good base for a competitive MLB team. And August and September is a great data set to help prove my point.

Could the Twins switch out 5 of those guys for better players and then have a completely different lineup? Absolutely. But I don't expect them to. And I don't think you do either. I hope the Twins bring in a "power bat." But they aren't (weren't) shopping in the Alonzo aisle. They aren't shopping in the Tucker aisle. They're shopping in the Hoskins, Goldschmidt, Lowe aisle. And I don't think that moves the needle at all.

Fangraphs says they think this roster could win 82 games next year. I disagree with that whole heartedly. You don't. And that's all good. It's why this site is fun, because we can have these disagreements and talk Twins and baseball in general like we all like to do. I hope you're right in your view. I've been championing the Twins the last several offseasons and believed they were good enough to compete. I was wrong. The roster has only gotten worse in terms of current talent. So now my opinion is that they should blow it up completely and give themselves an improved chance in 2028 and beyond instead of wasting trade value on guys who won't be here when they can truly be competitive. 

The only arguments I see for the Twins winning 80+ games in 2026 are either the Twins switch out a good half of the current 26-man roster or everybody on it significantly improves their performance. I don't like the odds of either of those things. But I'm happy to be wrong.

[MGX]

The offensive production didn't change much over the last two months. Over the course of the season the Twins averaged just over 4 runs/game, in the last two months they averaged just over 4 runs/game.

Our bullpen was the issue & that's not a surprise when you look at who pitched - Erasmo Ramirez, Jose Urena, Genesis Cabrera, Brooks Kriske, Noah Davis, Thomas Hatch, Travis Adams, Pierson Ohl, Michael Tonkin, Sands & Topa. 

 

[bunsen82]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd bet there are more than 3 AAAA in most lineups according to my opinion. But I'm not the one arguing that the 10 guys you listed are a good base for a competitive MLB team. I gave you the numbers. I don't need to see all the lineups. The 10 guys you listed got essentially 80% of the PAs in August and September. My argument is that those 10 guys do not make up a good base for a competitive MLB team. And August and September is a great data set to help prove my point.

Could the Twins switch out 5 of those guys for better players and then have a completely different lineup? Absolutely. But I don't expect them to. And I don't think you do either. I hope the Twins bring in a "power bat." But they aren't (weren't) shopping in the Alonzo aisle. They aren't shopping in the Tucker aisle. They're shopping in the Hoskins, Goldschmidt, Lowe aisle. And I don't think that moves the needle at all.

Fangraphs says they think this roster could win 82 games next year. I disagree with that whole heartedly. You don't. And that's all good. It's why this site is fun, because we can have these disagreements and talk Twins and baseball in general like we all like to do. I hope you're right in your view. I've been championing the Twins the last several offseasons and believed they were good enough to compete. I was wrong. The roster has only gotten worse in terms of current talent. So now my opinion is that they should blow it up completely and give themselves an improved chance in 2028 and beyond instead of wasting trade value on guys who won't be here when they can truly be competitive. 

The only arguments I see for the Twins winning 80+ games in 2026 are either the Twins switch out a good half the current 26-man roster or everybody on it significantly improves their performance. I don't like the odds of either of those things. But I'm happy to be wrong.

I am actually ok with the complete blow up idea,  the issue is you have to be able to put it back together by 2027.  You are going to lose a lot of the casual even long term fans though.  I would say trade Ryan and Buxton if he is wanting to leave.   This could occur at trade deadline time though too.   

There is a part of me that wishes the Twins would pick a lane.  mediocrity only gets you so far.  The only thing I will say is the minors is much deeper than 2021, however if you are going to need that system to basically rebuild a team,  it can't be used as much for trade capital.  

To be fair I did name Martin/Roden/Larnach for 1 position.   At best 1 is mostly getting regular run.  Overall its still a mediocre lineup at best.  Keaschall, Buxton and maybe Wallner and Lewis are the only ones that would scare the opposition.  It begins to change if some of the prospects start coming up and performing well,  but again that relies on some hope.    

We will see what happens.  I don't think the roster as a whole will be bad, but it won't be great or solid either.  Maybe they trade Ryan and/or Buxton or Lopez at the deadline.   We will see.   

 

[The Great Hambino]

The 82-win projection to me seems unrealistic, but it's also calculated under unrealistic circumstances; that is, that everyone who was a free agent at the time that projection was calculated will remain a free agent.  As teams sign those free agents, their win totals will go up, and because there's a fixed number of 2,430 wins to divvy up between all the teams, those standing in place will go down.  It's likely that if they stand pat the rest of the offseason, their Opening Day win projection will be closer to the 75-77 win range.

And I still think that's an overly rosy picture of the team.  The bullpen will still be atrocious heading into the season.  A couple quality additions might bring that up to mediocre, but by no means will it be anything resembling a strength.  Bullpens can be rebuilt quickly or cheaply, but not both.   All the failed-starter-prospects-turned-quality-relievers they shipped out the door last deadline didn't go through that transformation in the blink of an eye, it took some time for their roles to get sorted out.  And if the master plan is to use their surplus of fringey starters to stock the bullpen, then it's beyond wishful to think that this is a competitive season.  But they're acting as if it is.  The more I think about this, the more I hate it.

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, MGX said:

The offensive production didn't change much over the last two months. Over the course of the season the Twins averaged just over 4 runs/game, in the last two months they averaged just over 4 runs/game.

Our bullpen was the issue & that's not a surprise when you look at who pitched - Erasmo Ramirez, Jose Urena, Genesis Cabrera, Brooks Kriske, Noah Davis, Thomas Hatch, Travis Adams, Pierson Ohl, Michael Tonkin, Sands & Topa. 

 

The Twins were below .500 before and after the trade deadline. The whole team was the problem from the beginning of the season. They didn't blow up the pen for the last 2 months because they were doing great. Why were they losing when the guys who pitched were Duran, Jax, Varland, and Stewart?

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I am actually ok with the complete blow up idea,  the issue is you have to be able to put it back together by 2027.  You are going to lose a lot of the casual even long term fans though.  I would say trade Ryan and Buxton if he is wanting to leave.   This could occur at trade deadline time though too.   

There is a part of me that wishes the Twins would pick a lane.  mediocrity only gets you so far.  The only thing I will say is the minors is much deeper than 2021, however if you are going to need that system to basically rebuild a team,  it can't be used as much for trade capital.  

To be fair I did name Martin/Roden/Larnach for 1 position.   At best 1 is mostly getting regular run.  Overall its still a mediocre lineup at best.  Keaschall, Buxton and maybe Wallner and Lewis are the only ones that would scare the opposition.  It begins to change if some of the prospects start coming up and performing well,  but again that relies on some hope.    

We will see what happens.  I don't think the roster as a whole will be bad, but it won't be great or solid either.  Maybe they trade Ryan and/or Buxton or Lopez at the deadline.   We will see.   

 

If they're making player decisions based off what they think the fans will like, they're already doomed. They've lost fans. Running this thing back like this isn't helping fan relations. I'd argue a roster full of Jenkins, Culpepper, Prielipp, Abel, etc. would actually help their early season ticket sales. 

Every part of me wishes they'd pick a lane. That's been my argument since the deadline. I said then and I've been saying ever since that that wasn't the start of a rebuild, it was them trying to play both sides of the fence. And I think it's going to turn out horribly. 

Maybe everything clicks to start the year and I look like a fool for the one millionth time on this site. But I'd say the odds are far better that they struggle to start the year. And hopefully that leads to them truly leaning into the rebuild and moving Ryan, Lopez, Buxton, Jeffers, whoever has value and isn't under contract/control for years to come. It's certainly a possibility, but it's not without risk. Ryan or Lopez blow out an elbow and now you've lost their trade value completely and don't have them to help your team at all either. It's why I'd prefer they just dive into the rebuild this winter. 

I'd guess Falvey is feeling the heat and he's trying to make 1 last ditch effort to save his job. I think it's going to hurt the Twins for years to come after he's gone. But we'll see. I'll tune in no matter what. Like I know most around here will.

[The Great Hambino]

21 minutes ago, MGX said:

The offensive production didn't change much over the last two months. Over the course of the season the Twins averaged just over 4 runs/game, in the last two months they averaged just over 4 runs/game.

Our bullpen was the issue & that's not a surprise when you look at who pitched - Erasmo Ramirez, Jose Urena, Genesis Cabrera, Brooks Kriske, Noah Davis, Thomas Hatch, Travis Adams, Pierson Ohl, Michael Tonkin, Sands & Topa. 

 

Four of those guys will still be in the bullpen, and unless they go on a somewhat-irresponsible spending spree, at least a couple of them will be counted upon for high-leverage.

Averaging just over 4 runs a game is not good.  And they're running essentially the same lineup back from the end of last year to start this year.  That is absolutely an issue, albeit not the only one.

[MGX]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins were below .500 before and after the trade deadline. The whole team was the problem from the beginning of the season. They didn't blow up the pen for the last 2 months because they were doing great. Why were they losing when the guys who pitched were Duran, Jax, Varland, and Stewart?

Fair point, they were bad in June & July as well. They weren't as bad as the last two months, but still below .500. The bottom line is if they don't upgrade the bullpen they won't have a competitive season.

[chpettit19]

Just now, MGX said:

Fair point, they were bad in June & July as well. They weren't as bad as the last two months, but still below .500. The bottom line is if they don't upgrade the bullpen they won't have a competitive season.

I'm fascinated to see what "power bat" and bullpen pieces they bring in, assuming they actually follow the plan they've put out. Will be interesting to see what their idea of good enough pieces are to salvage this thing. It's going to be an interesting offseason, even if it's not in the way I'd prefer.

[MGX]

3 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Four of those guys will still be in the bullpen, and unless they go on a somewhat-irresponsible spending spree, at least a couple of them will be counted upon for high-leverage.

Averaging just over 4 runs a game is not good.  And they're running essentially the same lineup back from the end of last year to start this year.  That is absolutely an issue, albeit not the only one.

I'd say 3 of those guys will still be in the bullpen - Adams/Ohl may end up shuttling back and forth. I agree with your point though they need to upgrade the bullpen. Another off-season where they just try to piece it together won't work. They claim they want to add a bat as well, we'll see.

[The Great Hambino]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm fascinated to see what "power bat" and bullpen pieces they bring in, assuming they actually follow the plan they've put out. Will be interesting to see what their idea of good enough pieces are to salvage this thing. It's going to be an interesting offseason, even if it's not in the way I'd prefer.

For frame of reference, Falvey has pointed to Ty France as an impactful free agency pickup.  I'd set my expectations somewhere in that realm

[bunsen82]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If they're making player decisions based off what they think the fans will like, they're already doomed. They've lost fans. Running this thing back like this isn't helping fan relations. I'd argue a roster full of Jenkins, Culpepper, Prielipp, Abel, etc. would actually help their early season ticket sales. 

Every part of me wishes they'd pick a lane. That's been my argument since the deadline. I said then and I've been saying ever since that that wasn't the start of a rebuild, it was them trying to play both sides of the fence. And I think it's going to turn out horribly. 

Maybe everything clicks to start the year and I look like a fool for the one millionth time on this site. But I'd say the odds are far better that they struggle to start the year. And hopefully that leads to them truly leaning into the rebuild and moving Ryan, Lopez, Buxton, Jeffers, whoever has value and isn't under contract/control for years to come. It's certainly a possibility, but it's not without risk. Ryan or Lopez blow out an elbow and now you've lost their trade value completely and don't have them to help your team at all either. It's why I'd prefer they just dive into the rebuild this winter. 

I'd guess Falvey is feeling the heat and he's trying to make 1 last ditch effort to save his job. I think it's going to hurt the Twins for years to come after he's gone. But we'll see. I'll tune in no matter what. Like I know most around here will.

Say what you will,  Falvey has built up a pretty strong Minor League system.  Is it good enough to get us to where we want to go in 3-4 years - maybe.   

I really wonder when the tear down order was decided.  I think 1-2 deals were expected,  and then in the last 24 hours they said sell these 9 players.    The biggest issue I have with the Pohlads is the complete change of directions that seems to occur under their leadership.  2021-2022 - We are going for a WS  2023- Cut Payroll   2025 - Player Purge   2026 - December 6th ish - Notify Falvey they are willing to give money to add some to the roster this year (previously had been on hold).   This is an absolutely idiotic way to run a business.  Its also stupid how they built up so much debt in the organization.  

Just like the tank for the top 3 draft pick,  which it did come out,  what the Twins were hoping for was a top 3 pick (yes 1 or 2 would have been great) , 3 ultimately was the spot they didn't want to go lower than.  We need as many elite players as possible and you need to hit on them.  

I am fine if someone trades for Ryan now.  However he tends to perform very well in the 1st half of the season, so ultimately I don't think you lose much by send him at the deadline.  However his value has already reduced for 68 to like 52 or 54.  The value will continue to reduce the longer you go.   Lopez and Ober I would love to see perform well this year.  Ober is 1 even if we are doing well I could see traded at the deadline.   

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

For frame of reference, Falvey has pointed to Ty France as an impactful free agency pickup.  I'd set my expectations somewhere in that realm

My gut is telling me Paul Goldschmidt. That may be because I'm in a bad place when it comes to my faith in this FO right now. But that's just what it feels like their moves are going to be.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Say what you will,  Falvey has built up a pretty strong Minor League system.  Is it good enough to get us to where we want to go in 3-4 years - maybe.   

I really wonder when the tear down order was decided.  I think 1-2 deals were expected,  and then in the last 24 hours they said sell these 9 players.    The biggest issue I have with the Pohlads is the complete change of directions that seems to occur under their leadership.  2021-2022 - We are going for a WS  2023- Cut Payroll   2025 - Player Purge   2026 - December 6th ish - Notify Falvey they are willing to give money to add some to the roster this year (previously had been on hold).   This is an absolutely idiotic way to run a business.  Its also stupid how they built up so much debt in the organization.  

Just like the tank for the top 3 draft pick,  which it did come out,  what the Twins were hoping for was a top 3 pick (yes 1 or 2 would have been great) , 3 ultimately was the spot they didn't want to go lower than.  We need as many elite players as possible and you need to hit on them.  

I am fine if someone trades for Ryan now.  However he tends to perform very well in the 1st half of the season, so ultimately I don't think you lose much by send him at the deadline.  However his value has already reduced for 68 to like 52 or 54.  The value will continue to reduce the longer you go.   Lopez and Ober I would love to see perform well this year.  Ober is 1 even if we are doing well I could see traded at the deadline.   

I've thought they've had a pretty solid minor league system for a while. They've been missing athleticism, but they've done well to adjust there. But prospects will always be a numbers game. It's why I want more. People throw around the "log jam" idea all the time and it drives me crazy. There's no such thing as a log jam of prospects. There's no such thing as a redundancy of prospects. We'll see what this wave does. I'd just prefer making the wave bigger to give them the best chance at success.

I have a Master Class subscription. I just enjoy learning things, so I watch a session almost every day. I'm still waiting for the Pohlad's picture to pop up at the top of my screen one of these days to showcase their class in how to destroy a company. I prefer to learn from successes, but there's still lessons in failures. I'd watch that class for sure.

If I were running things, I'd be shopping Ryan this offseason. I'd have told Buxton I don't plan to have Ryan, Lopez, or Ober in the rotation by the end of 2026 to see if he still wants to be here. If he doesn't, I'd be shopping him too. Ober I would hold until the deadline because I expect him to build a little more value by showing he's healthy and back to his previous self. Lopez I'd go either way. It's a balance with him between the length of control and him showing he's healthy again. If I got a great deal this offseason, I'd move him. If not, I'd hold him until the deadline. I'd trade Jeffers this offseason. None of those 5 guys would be on my 2027 roster.

[Linus]

Good discussion. My biggest fear is that the Pohlads have given Falvey a mandate to not spend much money and don’t suck. Hence our current roster which will likely be below 500 but not horrible while the team turns a tidy profit. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

Good discussion. My biggest fear is that the Pohlads have given Falvey a mandate to not spend much money and don’t suck. Hence our current roster which will likely be below 500 but not horrible while the team turns a tidy profit. 

Well, if many people see their dream team come true (which appears to be the case from the comments across multiple posts) the Twins won't suck and could even win 75 games in 2026 if everything goes well.

Then, again from many comments, there will not be a 2027 season to end the suffering. This will be followed by a cap and floor CBA that makes the Twins generally on the same footing as the big boys similar to the NFL. At least that is what I'm reading almost every day.

There are a number of people, not single digit percentages, that do not believe there will be a lockout or caps. However, that is all well in the future and not worth worrying about now that the team is set for 2026.

[nova_twins]

I love following prospects but there is no number of prospects that can guarantee MLB success -- you could look back at prospect snapshots of several organizations combined, say 150 "legit" prospects -- and easily fail in many cases to produce a good MLB team. 

The Twins need to improve their MLB club. Picking up a few random prospects is beyond pointless. 

[tony&rodney]

13 minutes ago, nova_twins said:

I love following prospects but there is no number of prospects that can guarantee MLB success -- you could look back at prospect snapshots of several organizations combined, say 150 "legit" prospects -- and easily fail in many cases to produce a good MLB team. 

The Twins need to improve their MLB club. Picking up a few random prospects is beyond pointless. 

True. However, if a team wants to be merely ok or around 75 wins with a budget for the 26 person roster of around $104M, that comes to $4M per player. That in turn means an organization better have a large number of prospects/minimum wage guys on the team to support a few "core" players. It's a bit like organizing a bookshelf or the kitchen cupboards.

[nova_twins]

25 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

True. However, if a team wants to be merely ok or around 75 wins with a budget for the 26 person roster of around $104M, that comes to $4M per player. That in turn means an organization better have a large number of prospects/minimum wage guys on the team to support a few "core" players. It's a bit like organizing a bookshelf or the kitchen cupboards.

For sure, the Twins need to draft well, make good international signings, etc., but that's just not the problem right now in the organization. It's farm system is already above average in depth and quality. 

[bunsen82]

The three they talked with were O Hearn, Bell and Hoskins. Per Hayes

[Chembry]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/twins-exploring-mid-tier-first-base-market.html#comments

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, nova_twins said:

that's just not the problem right now in the organization.

What would you identify as the main problem currently?

[DocBauer]

I believe the term Zoll used was looking for a "thumper". Personally, I think that's a poor choice or words. Who might be a potential Cruz sitting out there that we can grab cheaply? I think "quality bat" might be more accurate.

Everyone is going to be sick of me saying this...I'm almost sick of saying it myself...but why not Nathaniel Lowe? He settles 1B for 2yrs at $18-20M, and provides a solid, quality hitter with a career .771 OPS, even though he had a down 2025. (But still provided power and RBI). He's also got a .729 career OPS against LHP so he DOESN'T have to be platooned. Is he a "thumper"? No. But he's a quality hitter with some power and a 12.2 career WAR that fills an important spot in the INF and the lineup.

He's not as "old" as others that the Twins supposedly are interested in, and shouldn't be expensive. And with an undetermined but not large payroll, every $M saved is a little more to be spent on the bullpen.

But speaking of the bullpen...since it's been brought up in this thread about bats...they need TWO solid, decent, veteran additions to just lead the way. And I'm not talking about the inevitable MILB FA fliers they bring in with hopes of finding the next Thielbar or Stewart, etc, who we HOPE they uncover. They need 2 decent veterans to help lead the way instead of just going with rookie converts. 

From the LH side, it's not hard to look at Coulombe, Thielbar, Rogers, or Chafin as older guys who are ALL coming off really solid 2025 seasons. They should cost around $3-4M. Just pick one you really trust for one more good year. Maybe Funderburk's last 2 months are an indication he turned a corner. And maybe Prielipp really does convert to the pen. (There's also a handful of interesting LH arms that might be ready at some point in 2026). But you add the stability of a decent veteran.

From the RH side, I'm just not going to offer up possibilities for the simple reason as there are WAY too many options and tangents of possibilities. We could go all the way from Finnigan being affordable to Pressly having ONE MORE good season in his arm after a good start to 2025 and a lousy finish. But find ONE you think has a good 2026 in his arm, and you really change the complexion of the 2026 Twins BP.

Digressing somewhat, but am I the only one who believes Larnach was offered arbitration to "set the floor" until another bat was added? I remain of the opinion he will be dropped if needed, but the Twins remain hopeful of moving him, and his almost $5M to a team needing a solid LH platoon bat for a prospect(s), or part of a package for someone's young 4th or 5th best BP arm. His almost $5M makes a difference in a limited payroll situation and a crowded OF. I'm hopeful of a smart deal that provides such, but I'm 50-50 a deal for immediate value will happen. So I'm leaving any possible, hopeful addition out of this discussion. (But DAMN, it would be nice if the FO could be creative here!).

FA, FA, Sands, Funderburk, Orze, Topa, Ohl/Adams isn't exciting. But it's not a horrible start. And I don't care about who says what about whom, but SOMEONE from the collection of SP options is going to move to the pen. And while I despise the idea of giving up the potential of a young SP, don't most of us all just recognize that Festa is meant to be in the pen? He's damn near devastating 1 time through the order, good the 2nd time, but then he starts to fail a bit. And while his shoulder issues in 2025 shouldn't be the determining factor, it adds to the ultimate conclusion. I'd STILL have him working on his 2 seamer for an additional weapon, unless they see a better option instead. His FB plays up even better in a short stint. He's got a great slider and a solid change. And he has a deceptive, whip like delivery that doesn't hurt. 

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Matthews or Bradley is the better move to the pen. But I think Festa is on the Duran path.

And Falvey has mentioned Prielipp as a possibility, which kind of kills a hopeful part of me, but I've also started to give in to logic. 

You ADD Lowe, IMO, and ADD 2 solid FA pen additions for a combined total of around $20-22M, with Larnach gone, the payroll still sits at an absurd $105-107M. Frankly, that sucks. $110M allows for 1 more decent pen option, or maybe a better UTILITY option. $115M MIGHT offer both. A $120M, which has been MY projected option all along, might allow both.

While I refuse to escape the ridiculous way ownership is running things, the truth is the Twins DO have talent on hand, even if there were under performance players in 2025. And even though $120M payroll...my hope and expectation...is ridiculously low, they have a lot of low contracts for 2026 with about half of their top 10 prospects about to debut next season to provide both help and excitement. 

Sorry for being so long winded. There's just so many moving parts, even with a limited payroll, that I can see a team in 2 parts with a good rotation, a decent bullpen that might be better later, and a lineup that can be good, and even better come June or July. I just don't see a team that should be dismantled.