The Twins' Reluctance to Rebuild, and Whether It Will Remain This Winter

[jorgenswest]

15 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

A comp would require that the same player be traded with 2 years remaining and then flipped the next year.  That same player would also have to project the same.  In other words, his performance would have to remain very similar over the year between trades and the years before the trade.  I am not aware of any such comp so we will have to use a hypothetical trade. 

Would you give the same in trade for 1 year of service vs 2 years of service?  How about if it was reported that the team was in negotiation for two ace SPs that from every vantage point were exactly equal and they were asking for the exact same players in return.  Would you prefer Falvey chose the player with one year of control?  Do you think most people here would be calling for his head?  

I just don’t see teams other than the Marlins trading good starting pitchers with two or more years of service time. Why is that? 

[Major League Ready]

27 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I just don’t see teams other than the Marlins trading good starting pitchers with two or more years of service time. Why is that? 

Because the teams that do it a lot like Cleveland and Milwaukee have traded front of the rotation guys when they still expected to contend.  Burnes for example.  Chicago traded a better pitcher (Crochet) with 2 years of control because they did not expect to contend.  I think they also traded sale with 2 years remaining. 

We can talk about lots of examples, but you are ducking the question posed.  Could it be because nobody would choose 1 year of control over 2?  I would not suggest front of the rotation pitchers get traded regularly with 2 or more years of control, but two things can be true at the same time.  They don't often get traded and their value in trade is greater with two years of control.

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, ashbury said:

I'm merely pointing out the weakness of your argument.

Are you? Or are you advocating trading the best remaining asset in HOPES of MAYBE returning more?  Hope is not a good strategy.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Expanding on Asbury's point.  The Twins are 3.3% of the league and their transactions of this type are probably less than 3.3% given they have rarely made such a trade.   Would you evaluate a player based who played in 150 games based on 5 games or how he hit in a particular stadium and ignore the other 145 games?  If the Twins brought up a player that played well in 30 games, was traded and played well below average in 900 (96.66%) games for 9 teams, would you ignore how he played in the 900 games and sign him as a free agent.  Of course not, it would be ridiculous to ignore the vast majority of available information.

History is clear.  This type of trade is the best course of action for teams in the bottom half of revenue, especially when they are not in contention.  You should focus on arguing this team is a contender.  You could argue that they can build a great BP from the rubble they have.  It’s conceivable Lewis and Lee both go from well below average to well above average hitters and they find an above average 1B.  It’s possible that Martin steps up and Jenkins is ROY.  Jeffers and the pitching staff all have a good year and of course they would all also need to say healthy.  This is all highly unlikely but it’s not as ridiculous as refusing to consider how other teams have been successful.  

As a fan, it is your prerogative to ignore the 96.66% of the data that does not support your desired conclusion.  When a baseball executive ignores 96.66% of the data they are removed from their position for gross incompetence.  Therefore, I guess you can take whatever ridiculous position you like.  Just don’t be surprised when the team arrives at a different decision. 

97% of the data has no impact on 3% of the results.  I only CARE about what happens with THIS team.  I've been discussing this with folks for quite a spell.  NOBODY has yet pointed to ONE instance where trading front line starting pitching has benefited this team.  NOBODY.  Even though I have indicated that there IS one notable example of that flies in the face of my argument.  Of course, IF anyone ever guesses that example, I'm prepared to blow that up too.  Seems nobody will.

[The Great Hambino]

Viola for Tapani, Aguilera etc. arguably turned out to be helpful for the hometown franchise

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Are you?

Yes.

Quote

Or are you advocating trading the best remaining asset in HOPES of MAYBE returning more?  Hope is not a good strategy.

I was dismayed by the trades of Jax, Duran, and Varland, and have therefore pretty much checked out mentally as to what fresh hell this FO intends for 2026. 🙃  But I'll still call out a bad argument when I see one.

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Because the teams that do it a lot like Cleveland and Milwaukee have traded front of the rotation guys when they still expected to contend.  Burnes for example.  Chicago traded a better pitcher (Crochet) with 2 years of control because they did not expect to contend.  I think they also traded sale with 2 years remaining. 

Burnes had one year of control remaining when traded. Sale was beyond his arbitration years and on an extension he had signed with the White Sox. I think you are right about Crichet.I look to the Guardians and Brewers as organizations we should follow. I think they would be holding onto Ryan at this point. I think their trade window would open at the deadline if they were not competitive and be wide open next winter.

This year I wonder if the Tigers will trade Skubal with two years of control left.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

97% of the data has no impact on 3% of the results.  I only CARE about what happens with THIS team.  I've been discussing this with folks for quite a spell.  NOBODY has yet pointed to ONE instance where trading front line starting pitching has benefited this team.  NOBODY.  Even though I have indicated that there IS one notable example of that flies in the face of my argument.  Of course, IF anyone ever guesses that example, I'm prepared to blow that up too.  Seems nobody will.

I am sure that this argument makes sense in your mind.  When you ignore 97% of the data in the real world you get fired.

[dxpavelka]

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

Yes.

I was dismayed by the trades of Jax, Duran, and Varland, and have therefore pretty much checked out mentally as to what fresh hell this FO intends for 2026. 🙃  But I'll still call out a bad argument when I see one.

Jax HAD to go.  Duran & Varland brought back the best returns of all the deadline deals.  The rest of the guys who went were probably not long term answers anyway.  If the outlook is "hell" as you seem to think maybe it's time to find a different sport to watch. 

[dxpavelka]

7 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I am sure that this argument makes sense in your mind.  When you ignore 97% of the data in the real world you get fired.

Still haven't cited ONE trade of a front line starter to benefit this team.  ONE

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Still haven't cited ONE trade of a front line starter to benefit this team.  ONE

And you're still pretending there is even remotely enough data points to draw a conclusion from only the twins while ignoring 97% of the data.  Ashbury also pointed this out but of course you ignore anything and everything outside the fact the Twins have not had multiple successes with trades they have not made.  Go ahead and retain a position of righteous ignorance.  As I said, you can do this as a fan but that kind of gross incompetence gets you fired as a baseball executive or any other industry.  Try telling the board of directors you avoid proven practices because your organization had rarely engaged in these practices in the past.  How about engaging these proven practices? That's how an organization gets better.   

[dxpavelka]

46 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

And you're still pretending there is even remotely enough data points to draw a conclusion from only the twins while ignoring 97% of the data.  Ashbury also pointed this out but of course you ignore anything and everything outside the fact the Twins have not had multiple successes with trades they have not made.  Go ahead and retain a position of righteous ignorance.  As I said, you can do this as a fan but that kind of gross incompetence gets you fired as a baseball executive or any other industry.  Try telling the board of directors you avoid proven practices because your organization had rarely engaged in these practices in the past.  How about engaging these proven practices? That's how an organization gets better.   

The Twins have had plenty of success with trades  they have made.  Just not with trading front line starting pitching.  Really good chance that a less than stellar win of a trade of Ryan and / or Lopez has the rubes on this site calling for Falvey / Zoll's heads.

[old nurse]

On 11/15/2025 at 6:18 PM, Major League Ready said:

Star players don't get traded often and I am not going to go back 20 years but off the top of my head …

Miami got Zach Gallan and Sandy Alcantara for Marcell Azuna

Washington got Crawford CJ Abrahams, James Wood and Mackenzie Gore,

Tatis Jr. was acquired as a prospect for James Shields.

Danby Swanson was acquired as a prospect for Shelby Miller

Willy Adames was acquired as a prospect in trade for David Price.

Bryan Reynolds was acquired as a prospect for Andrew McCutchen

Ketel Marte was relatively unproven when acquired in trade for Mitch Hanigar and Jean Segura.

The As acquired Marcus Semien and Chris Basset, for Jeff Samardzija.  They also acquired Frankie Montas and Mark Canha as prospects.  The A’s have others that escape me at the moment.   Probably a while ago.  

Cleveland, Tampa, and Milwaukee have many examples.  Cleveland got Emmanuel Clase for 1 year of Corey Kluber.  Kluber was also acquired as a prospect in trade for Jake Westbrook.  They also got Josh Naylor for Mike Clevinger.  Clevinger was also acquired as a prospect.  Carlos Santana as a prospect by trading Casey Blake.  They got Carlos Carrasco by trading Cliff Lee.  

Tampa and Milwaukee have quite a few but I am not going to go through the same exercise with them.  These teams I mentioned also acquired many good (not star) players by trading for prospects.  Those players contributed significantly as well.  Obviously, we want to trade for stars but an above average player is a decent outcome for a player controlled for 1-2 years, especially when the team is not expected to contend.  
 

My bad for not adequately defining star. My mind set it to elite, you to very good 

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, old nurse said:

My bad for not adequately defining star. My mind set it to elite, you to very good 

I was thinking similar to Ryan who is very good but not elite.  Plus, there are not many very good SPs traded much less truly elite.  What do you think will Skubal get traded?  The Tigers were pretty bad for a decade.  Do they dare trade him when they are in a contention window?

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The Twins have had plenty of success with trades  they have made.  Just not with trading front line starting pitching.  Really good chance that a less than stellar win of a trade of Ryan and / or Lopez has the rubes on this site calling for Falvey / Zoll's heads.

Falvey has not traded a front line starting pitcher.  You can’t hold him accountable for what came before him 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I was thinking similar to Ryan who is very good but not elite.  

Not is not true according to the rumored asking price

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I was thinking similar to Ryan who is very good but not elite.  Plus, there are not many very good SPs traded much less truly elite.  What do you think will Skubal get traded?  The Tigers were pretty bad for a decade.  Do they dare trade him when they are in a contention window?

They likely are not in a contention widow unless the add itching. The lack of pitching behind Skubal doomed them. Their batters had career years even after fading down. The stretch 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

They likely are not in a contention widow unless the add itching. The lack of pitching behind Skubal doomed them. Their batters had career years even after fading down. The stretch 

Agree but I meant in the eyes of their fans.  We just had an article here on the Twins " path to contention" and Detroit is far closer to contention than us.

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Agree but I meant in the eyes of their fans.  We just had an article here on the Twins " path to contention" and Detroit is far closer to contention than us.

Which fans? The ones who say the Illiches are cheap? The ones who say the Illiches are cheap while wearing a knockoff t-shirt bought at the gas stain for $10? The ones who say this group ain’t as good as when they had Miggy and Verlander.? The ones who say the prospects aren’t any good?  You know the answer to your question 

[dxpavelka]

On 11/17/2025 at 5:02 PM, old nurse said:

Falvey has not traded a front line starting pitcher.  You can’t hold him accountable for what came before him 

Berrios.  Not about accountability.  Just sayin it has not happened.

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Berrios.  Not about accountability.  Just sayin it has not happened.

Berrios is a number 3, like Ober 

[dxpavelka]

On 11/19/2025 at 7:49 AM, old nurse said:

Berrios is a number 3, like Ober 

Not at the time he was traded.  A 1 or a 2 at that time.  Did we win the deal?

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Not at the time he was traded.  A 1 or a 2 at that time.  Did we win the deal?

His salary that he signed for was less than 1/2 noney

[EGFTShaw]

So, it is Almost Thanksgiving with Christmas just around the corner.

Let's just give the Pohlads the gift of Ire this season.

From Ralph_MasonJr on X
"Reminder that every MLB team/owner gets a 200M check annually from MLB for revenue sharing, which doesn’t even include their gate/ticket sales  "

My gift to Twins Fans, apologies for the pasted Font SIZE.

So, the Pohlads CLAIM can't boost payroll, to quote several TV characters before swearing was allowed, cable and streaming services:
"Poppycock"
"Horse Hockey"
"Holy Crap on a Cracker" (OK this one came sort of recently)
"Holy Dental Hygiene Batman"

WTF - they quibble over $10-$30M during the past 2 seasons and they get $200M/year in revenue sharing off the top for simply being Owners.

So, we win our first playoff series since the time of Lake Agassiz, and they CUT payroll because we are small market team and can't afford it, (translation: we want to keep our $200M bec...well we are the owners and don't have to explain it to you pathetic...er...loyal fans) when they have the means to push the Twins to the next level?

MotherZuckers...

[EDIT]
PS - in case your undies aren't in a bundle yet:
From DiamondCentric:

"They receive 3.3% of the aggregated local revenues, and another roughly $90 million for their 1/30th share of national revenues"
 

So that is $290M and can't afford to keep the payroll at $157M so we HAD to slash $25-$30M.

Double MotherZuckers
The Hamm's Bear could manage the payroll better than the PoorhLads

Edited November 22, 2025 by EGFTShaw
Added new information

[dxpavelka]

On 11/21/2025 at 5:27 AM, old nurse said:

His salary that he signed for was less than 1/2 noney

less than what?

 

[old nurse]

12 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

less than what?

 

 

12 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

less than what?

 

Less money than 1 or 2 starters were getting

[dxpavelka]

Sorry.  I equate 1 or 2 status with performance not what a guy signed for.  His PERFORMANCE at the time he was traded was that of one of the top 20 pitchers in baseball and certainly top ten in the AL.  That equates to 1 or 2 status,