2026 team building through via trade question

[Cory Engelhardt]

Let’s say with the mystery investors allow the team to have some money to spend this offseason. I’m not saying they will be in on Pete Alonso et al, but maybe they aren’t only getting Ty France type deals and minor league signings for the bullpen.

With that being said, let’s say they also do hypothetically not trade Lopez, Ryan, Buxton and Jeffers. Let’s start with that too. 
 

Here are my questions;

1) What is the best major league player they can get for Trevor Larnach? My guess is they can get a reliever of some type. Nick Gordon turned into Steven Okert. Just a thought.

2) What is the best player they can get for Bailey Ober? Can they get a young catcher who is ready to at minimum be a backup and if everything breaks right be a co-catcher with Jeffers? If that is the case, do you have a name that makes sense?

3) I don’t know that I see trading Wallner, but let’s say they listen on him. What would your hope be for him? Is he more valuable as their rf/dh for 2026? Or is he more valuable to trade to someone for pitching or hitting?

4) Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis; I kind of think longer term this team has room for one of them in the starting lineup unless they both can get back to their potential. As of right now I would bet on Lewis longer term more than Lee, and I also think Kaelen Culpepper is a better SS option long term than Lee is. Do you listen on Lee now? Do you think he can be at 3b and you move Lewis for something?

Anyway, I do think there will be moves this offseason. I don’t know if that includes a haul for Joe Ryan or not, but these guys are also ones I would listen on. 
 

What do you think?

[tony&rodney]

At some point the Twins will need to make decisions. If the choice is to roll it back with the current roster in a similar fashion to the past two years as some people propose (third time is the charm ads), I will be worried. It is impossible to know. Brock has put out the roster build ideas the past few years but last year there was less enthusiasm and much cynicism toward various proposals. I believe it is important to remember we are just goofing around with our opinions and should avoid getting too exasperated by whatever is suggested or what plays out in the end. The four innings from Will Klein (a player the Dodgers picked up in a minor league trade after Klein was DFA'ed by Seattle) to shut down Toronto last night reminds us of how to fill out a Bingo card. Who had Will Klein?

My guess is that Larnach remains if Wallner is traded because I don't believe Larnach has demand at his salary. Maybe someone offers a minor league relief pitcher. I have no ideas there.

There should be some interest and demand from the other players you mentioned. Ober might be on Arizona's list. Wallner might have a fan in Pittsburgh or even Kansas City. Maybe Seattle would wonder about Lewis. I have no idea about who would have an interest in Lee. The Twins will need to balance their plans, needs, wants, and what some other teams thinks is doable. I think these things are a few weeks off. I do believe the club should act quicker this year than in the past.

[DocBauer]

I'm hoping that Larnach, or Larnach and a reasonable prospect can bring in a young pen arm that has a couple years of control. Maybe someone's #4 or #5 arm from a decent pen.

I don't see Wallner being moved. He's the primary DH in waiting, but could open the season in RF. But they have got to clear put fodder like Outman from the roster.

I also don't believe Ober is going to be traded. While I have faith he's going to be just fine, that hip issue that derailed his season is going to be a question to other teams.

There's plenty of room for both Lewis and Lee now, and for the next couple of years as well. Culpepper moved Lee to a super utility role, IMO, unless his bat really gets hot. Depth is an issue even with Culpepper's arrival.

I would only move Ryan if the haul was huge. It would have to be a pair of top 100 prospects and a 3rd solid player thrown in. He's valuable and inexpensive for the next 2yrs. I'd keep him and see how the season goes. He could always be moved at the deadline. The haul might be a bit less at that time, but still solid. I just don't believe in moving a quality, top of the rotation starter that's probably making around $7M this year, unless the season goes poorly.

We already need some kind of decent backup at catcher. How do you move Jeffers and add 2 catchers? 

I think, for the most part, the Twins shot their load at the last deadline. Can't believe I'm saying this, but I think I believe Falvey when he says he wants to open the season with Ryan and Lopez in the fold, and expects to.

It's Larnach in a trade if possible, and that might be it.

Assuming the payroll doesn't just bottom out, I see a 1B and #2 catcher in FA, but no big names to be sure. But please, someone better than France. I'd then expect 2 or 3 FA pen arms that are solid and proven, but not expensive, back of pen types. More like Coulombe, Romero in quality.

Then, of course, a couple INF and pen flier types that won't require immediate 40 man spots.

I don't believe we're going to see a "roll it back" type of season. Larnach should be gone. We'll have a different, hopefully better, option at 1B. We'll have Keaschall all season and Culpepper up at some point. Martin has probably claimed a share of LF at this point. At some point, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez and maybe even Fedko will debut. That's when Wallner moves to DH, unless someone debuts immediately. And I still think Roden has a shot as a role player at least. A poor rookie debut in a SSS doesn't mean he can't be a solid player.

I just think the big trade moves have already happened. Now it's about development, promotions, and some hopefully smart FA moves to round out the roster.

[tony&rodney]

55 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I just think the big trade moves have already happened. Now it's about development, promotions, and some hopefully smart FA moves to round out the roster.

If the moves are over the Twins are looking at 55-75 wins next season. 75 wins if everything goes really well.

The current talent was pretty much on display in August and September.

[Cory Engelhardt]

43 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

If the moves are over the Twins are looking at 55-75 wins next season. 75 wins if everything goes really well.

The current talent was pretty much on display in August and September.

Disagree with 55 being possible. Not certain on the ceiling yet

[DocBauer]

53 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

If the moves are over the Twins are looking at 55-75 wins next season. 75 wins if everything goes really well.

The current talent was pretty much on display in August and September.

I disagree. SOME of the talent was on display the last 2 months. The fragments that made up the bullpen actually blew more than a few games the Twins actually had some leads in, not that they would have finished with a pretty record.

Do a few things have to go right for a solid 2026? Absolutely. We need Royce to continue on his current health streak, and get his bat untracked to a higher degree. Lee needs to improve his bat as well. We also need a full season from Keaschall. How about a 1B that can actually produce? O'Hearn maybe?

Again, at some point next season, we're going to see Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez, Culpepper, and possibly Fedko debut and set the OF and DH spot with Wallner moving there. It would be nice if the Wallner move could take place opening day with one of those young OF taking a starting job.

You don't have to squint very hard to see improved defense here and there and a solid, productive lineup.

Keeping Lopez, Ryan, and a return to health by Ober is a really solid first 3. SWR actually showed development over those last couple of months. Granted we need someone, probably Bradley to begin with, take over the #5 spot. But that's a concern for a lot of teams.

Potential can sometimes be an ugly word. But I see a solid starting staff, better defense...especially when Culpepper comes up...and better team speed and athleticism. Potentially. 

I fully recognize the pen is an issue. We all recognize that. And it's not going to be re-built overnight for sure. But indulge me for a moment.

I believe Festa, hopefully healthy, is destined for the pen. He has the potential to be the next Duran/Jax/Varland hard throwing late inning type of arm. We've what Sands CAN do. He doesn't have to replicate his 2024 season, just get closer to it. It actually looks like Funderburk has maybe/finally taken another step forward. I'd rather see him as a second LH option in the pen, but he might be useful. Topa as the 7th man can be useful. Lawyerson, Adams, and Ohl can be the 8th man who rotates between the Twins and St Paul. Potentially. (I know, there's that word again). Now let's say, for example, the Twins bring back Coulombe for around $3-4M for the same role he had last season. (There are other options of course). And then a couple other FA for $4-5M of the sort that might resemble Clippard and Romero, to bring up a couple of past, solid arms in recent past.

Obviously they will bring in some non 40 man guys looking for the next Thielbar, Stewart, or Wisler. Behind all of those options will be a handful of converts such as Lewis and Raya, and who knows who else.

There's even a chance Matthews or Abel outperforms Bradley and HE moves to the pen as he doesn't have options remaining.

All I'm saying is I can see the possibility of a decent...not great...bullpen that could take the 2026 Twins to an 85-87 win season. That would, probably, be a playoff contender. And even if not, that's a hell of a lot more FUN team...with talented prospects emerging during the season...than just punting 2026 and accepting a 90+ loss team.

And again, if things just go poorly for whatever reason(s), you can look to sell some guys at the deadline. 

I just don't like quitting early. To me, trading Ryan and/or Lopez before the season even begins is quitting. And I generally don't believe in complete teardowns and re-builds most of the time. And I just don't see a team/organization that is so deplete on talent that a re-build is in order.

I may be wrong. And it's fine with me if you disagree with what I see. But this is what I see as I look at 2026.

[The Great Hambino]

This is a good thought exercise.

With the overall caveat that anyone can be had for the right price, this is how I see it right now:

1. I agree, worse players with a similar arbitration status like Gordon as you mentioned - also Kyle Farmer - have gotten something back in trade, I don't see why Larnach wouldn't.  I also agree a middling reliever makes sense here

2. I don't know if now is a good time to move Ober.  I think he has an opportunity to add trade value at the deadline if he bounces back strong.  Not sure what I would want in return, but it would hopefully be someone with more control.  I wouldn't shy away from a prospect if they have an ETA of 2026.

3. I'm only trading Wallner for a steal as I think he also has an opportunity bring his value back up.  On the other hand, I feel like there's a very wide range of opinions on him, so perhaps there's opportunity to get good value from someone on the very optimistic end of things.  I think the effect the hamstring had on him last year gets undersold.  He actually had a pretty solid start to the season, he just had one hell of a time getting back on track.  I'm actually a little optimistic on him myself (when will I ever learn...)

4. Too much upside with both of them to sell low now.  The value of giving each of them a chance to emerge I think exceeds the value they could get in a trade, even if it is true that there's probably only room for one of them down the line if prospects develop well

[tony&rodney]

59 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Disagree with 55 being possible. Not certain on the ceiling yet

Well, that is the level we saw the last two months; it's the floor.

[Cory Engelhardt]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Well, that is the level we saw the last two months; it's the floor.

I suppose if they do literally nothing and don’t change out the bottom of their 40 man and have zero competent bullpen that’s true. I can’t see that happening otherwise

[ashbury]

9 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I suppose if they do literally nothing and don’t change out the bottom of their 40 man and have zero competent bullpen that’s true. I can’t see that happening otherwise

And they could decide that a 75-win ceiling isn't worth diddly (or squat) and turn some additional present WAR into future WAR via trades, and the floor goes lower instead of higher.  Their post-deadline record is small sample and doesn't guarantee anything - nevertheless they played at a 105-loss pace the rest of the way, and that's my starting point for this kind of discussion.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

And they could decide that a 75-win ceiling isn't worth diddly (or squat) and turn some additional present WAR into future WAR via trades, and the floor goes lower instead of higher.  Their post-deadline record is small sample and doesn't guarantee anything - nevertheless they played at a 105-loss pace the rest of the way, and that's the starting point for this kind of discussion.

Maybe so? I guess we will see. I’d be surprised if they dont acquire some actual bullpen help

[ashbury]

4 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’d be surprised if they dont acquire some actual bullpen help

Why would they do that?  That's what they had.  Including one bullpen arm that was still under control for league minimum salary.  Replacing Duran will require either high dollar investment or high trade capital, for instance.  Replacing Varland might require a good corner outfield prospect and a good starting pitcher prospect.  😄

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Why would they do that?  That's what they had.  Including one bullpen arm that was still under control for league minimum salary.  Replacing Duran will require either high dollar investment or high trade capital, for instance.  Replacing Varland might require a good corner outfield prospect and a good starting pitcher prospect.  😄

I don’t think bullpen value is as expensive as you lay out here. 

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don’t think bullpen value is as expensive as you lay out here. 

I just alluded to two examples of the going rate for acquisition.

[The Great Hambino]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don’t think bullpen value is as expensive as you lay out here. 

So who isn't the good prospect, Roden or Rojas?

[tony&rodney]

It would be very weird to see the Twins stand still this winter after the trades in late July. I'm expecting a minimum of 3 trades.

It is possible to add Thielbar and/or Coulombe on $3M deals each but I doubt the relievers  are up for it. 

Does anyone expect the Twins to fork over more than $10M for a relief pitcher?

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

It would be very weird to see the Twins stand still this winter after the trades in late July. I'm expecting a minimum of 3 trades.

It is possible to add Thielbar and/or Coulombe on $3M deals each but I doubt the relievers  are up for it. 

Does anyone expect the Twins to fork over more than $10M for a relief pitcher?

I do not no. At least not on the free agent market. But there are options available

[Cory Engelhardt]

21 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

So who isn't the good prospect, Roden or Rojas?

I just meant you don’t have to give up quality prospects to get usable relievers for a season

[Cory Engelhardt]

27 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I just alluded to two examples of the going rate for acquisition.

Yes but they don’t have to get a get with 5 years team control to help the bullpen

Plus, I think Festa and Raya and SWR all could become really solid relievers. And another one via trade from Larnach and a free agent or two complete the bullpen no? Or some type of iteration of this. 

[tony&rodney]

Team building through trades is the topic and that is exactly what I think needs to occur in order to balance a roster that lacks sufficient athleticism and talent. 

[Steve J]

I have no idea why you would want to trade low on Ober.  Especially if they trade Ryan or Lopez.  Maybe his fastball improves.  Maybe he improves his mix so batters aren't served up an 89mph high fastball so often.  His control is elite and he can get swinging strikes on his changeup a lot, even with a bottom tier four seamer.  

[tony&rodney]

50 minutes ago, Steve J said:

I have no idea why you would want to trade low on Ober.  Especially if they trade Ryan or Lopez.  Maybe his fastball improves.  Maybe he improves his mix so batters aren't served up an 89mph high fastball so often.  His control is elite and he can get swinging strikes on his changeup a lot, even with a bottom tier four seamer.  

We have to hope that the Twins aren't going to just dump any player making above minimum MLB salary without a no trade clause. The concept of low or high value may have some run but the job of the front office is to find out which clubs have an interest in any Twins player and discuss scenarios where a mutually beneficial deal is completed. From my perspective many discussions and explorations should take place. These would seem to be in the form of asking teams what needs they have or ideas are possible. We just don't know how another team looks at a specific Twin. Perhaps there are multiple teams that actually see Ober, Jeffer, Lewis, Wallner, or others as desired assets to improve their team and are willing to discuss trades. We will have to wait and hope for the best. 

It sure seemed like there was a ton of interest in Duran, Jax, and Varland as well as others during the late July time period. The sheer number of trades was surprising to me. I wondered about how the Twins front office targeted players as much as I wondered about the supposed offers which were not chosen. In the end we are guessing while being either hopeful or disappointed at whatever takes place.

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 hours ago, Steve J said:

I have no idea why you would want to trade low on Ober.  Especially if they trade Ryan or Lopez.  Maybe his fastball improves.  Maybe he improves his mix so batters aren't served up an 89mph high fastball so often.  His control is elite and he can get swinging strikes on his changeup a lot, even with a bottom tier four seamer.  

Not saying Ober is more or less valuable than Zebby or SWR or Bradley or Abel or any other pitcher they have after Lopez and Ryan. But if some team values Ober more than they currently do, then that’s when a deal can be made no?

[nicksaviking]

13 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Maybe so? I guess we will see. I’d be surprised if they dont acquire some actual bullpen help

Outside bullpen help is just as likely to be terrible as it is usable. You could allocate 20M to spending on the pen this year and at best you have a 50% chance of it being better than what you'd get with internal options. 95% of relief pitchers simply are not reliable team-to-team and year-to-year. Trying to buy a bullpen is a fool's errand; you have to spend a couple years building one.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Outside bullpen help is just as likely to be terrible as it is usable. You could allocate 20M to spending on the pen this year and at best you have a 50% chance of it being better than what you'd get with internal options. 95% of relief pitchers simply are not reliable team-to-team and year-to-year. Trying to buy a bullpen is a fool's errand; you have to spend a couple years building one.

That might be true. But its also was never a guarantee that anyone they traded would be good still in 2026. Injuries or ineffectiveness happen all the time.

But I do agree, this offseason will be interesting to see how they attack building the bullpen.

[chpettit19]

1. I don't believe they can get anything back for Larnach. Nick Gordon made 900k for the Marlins, Larnach is going to cost somebody somewhere around 5 million. The Twins tried the "tender and trade" bit with Farmer in a similar price range and couldn't deal him. Larnach has no excess value and I don't believe they can get anything back for him.

2. Ober is tough because of his down/injured year this year but is still a pitcher who has shown legit middle of the rotation ability. I think a young catcher is a nice target for him, and maybe Chicago would have interest, but it's really hard to know what he'll be worth on the trade market this year. 

3. My guess is Wallner is more valuable as a bounce back candidate with the Twins than on the open market. As always, the Twins should be listening on him and everyone else in case somebody brings them a great deal, but I'd guess they get a bunch of calls on him from teams trying to buy low. If that's all you get he's better used here to see if he can get back to 23/24 performance.

4. Lee has never had the upside people tried to put on him. He can be better than this, but he's never going to be a legit starting SS in the majors. Never was. It's getting harder to see his ceiling as being anything above utility IFer at this point. The time to trade him was when he was still in AAA. Teams see the lack of athleticism, back struggles, and limited ceiling now. Lewis is much like Wallner in that his value is probably higher as a bounce back candidate. If the team was in better position to compete the calculus would be different, but with the shape of the team now there's plenty of ABs to give to a guy with his ceiling. If he doesn't bounce back he's probably non-tendered next year. But I don't think you can get a reasonable return for a guy who can be a star if he gets himself right.

Trading guys with Wallner and Lewis' ceilings after down years is bad roster management. Always listen, but I doubt they get anything worthwhile on them. Ober is an interesting trade piece because when he was healthy he did show he's still the same guy, and pitching is always worth more. You'd still be trading low so he's probably a better option for a trade deadline deal.

Any real difference making trade would have to include one of Lopez, Ryan, or Buxton, in my opinion. Jeffers being a step below them. They've put themselves in a really interesting and tough position. Will be an intereseting offseason to follow.

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I suppose if they do literally nothing and don’t change out the bottom of their 40 man and have zero competent bullpen that’s true. I can’t see that happening otherwise

If they change out the bottom and add a competent bullpen to make a 70-win team, they will sell again at the deadline and fall short of 70 wins.

[Cory Engelhardt]

38 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If they change out the bottom and add a competent bullpen to make a 70-win team, they will sell again at the deadline and fall short of 70 wins.

I don't think the talent level is as bad as you lay out IF they do change out the bottom and add back a competent bullpen.

[MGX]

To me the Twins could easily have a winning team in '26. Of course that's if...

1. They don't bottom out the payroll

2. They keep at least one of Lopez & Ryan & hopefully both

3. They address the high leverage roles in the bullpen

4. They address the starting SS position

Other upgrades would be nice, but the above list is already asking for more than I believe they'll be willing to do. 

The issue is we have to rely the ownership & the FO & it's hard to believe they will at this point.

The only silver lining in my mind is Falvey's job has to be on the line & he has to know it. So at least from his perspective there should be incentive to win in '26. Of course the owners still call the shots with the player payroll so it may not matter.

[The Great Hambino]

21 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't think the talent level is as bad as you lay out IF they do change out the bottom and add back a competent bullpen.

Even if both those IFs are addressed, which are far from guarantees - if you're counting on internal starter prospects to be that competent bullpen, then it's not gonna happen this season as it's going to take time to sort out the rotation and games in April count in the standings as much as games in September - then you still have to address the lack of quality at the top of the lineup.

What you're suggesting I think would require a level of investment that I don't see them making. 

"Short-term pain" 

"I expect Ryan and Lopez to be in the rotation.  Well, that's my hope"

"Limited partners that share Pohlad family values"

Etc

The tea leaves have not been encouraging