Will Pohlad Family Cut Minnesota Twins Payroll Another $30 Million in 2026? Dan Hayes Thinks So

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I actually agree with this.  My real argument was that they were unlikely to bring back players/prospects who were likely to provide more value than they would by keeping them. 

Cleveland has repeatedly proven this to be untrue.  If we track their WAR  for all of their 90 win teams you will find players acquired as prospects produced more 44.5% of their WAR vs 25.5% from players drafted in the regular draft.  Their International draft is much higher than most teams primarily due to Jose Rameriz.  I would suggest the upside is considerably higher (as is the downside) with a prospect because you have them for 6 years.  Not only do you have 6-7 years of production vs 2,  You have far more opportunities to be a playoff team. 

When quantifying value, is production for a team that does not make the playoffs as valuable as a team that does not make the playoffs?  I would argue production from Ryan and Lopez is likely to have reduced value.  

Corey Kluber is a good example of upside.  He was acquired as a prospect, produced 34 WAR and was then traded for Emmanuel Clause.  Cliff Lee was acquired as a prospect.  He was later traded for Clevenger and Sizemore.  Our old friend Carlos Santana was also acquired as a prospect,

BTW ... Jake Westbrook, the player Cleveland gave up for Kluber produced 2.7 WAS in 2 seasons with ST. Louis.  Trading for prospects can be a bust, but it has enormous upside I don't think you are recognizing.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

In other words, you feel the front office doesn't possess the competence/knowledge/skills to complete transactions which return the talent for players such as Ryan, etc.?

This would place the Twins between a rock and a hard place because the talent on hand won't cut it.

Not really.  My argument is that it is extremely difficult to replace a playoff caliber starter.  We spent years trying  (mostly unsuccessfully) to do that.  Now that we have them in hand, we would get rid of them?  The value from acquired prospects is far less of a sure thing, regardless of who runs the front office.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

52 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Cleveland has repeatedly proven this to be untrue.  If we track their WAR  for all of their 90 win teams you will find players acquired as prospects produced more 44.5% of their WAR vs 25.5% from players drafted in the regular draft.  Their International draft is much higher than most teams primarily due to Jose Rameriz.  I would suggest the upside is considerably higher (as is the downside) with a prospect because you have them for 6 years.  Not only do you have 6-7 years of production vs 2,  You have far more opportunities to be a playoff team. 

When quantifying value, is production for a team that does not make the playoffs as valuable as a team that does not make the playoffs?  I would argue production from Ryan and Lopez is likely to have reduced value.  

Corey Kluber is a good example of upside.  He was acquired as a prospect, produced 34 WAR and was then traded for Emmanuel Clause.  Cliff Lee was acquired as a prospect.  He was later traded for Clevenger and Sizemore.  Our old friend Carlos Santana was also acquired as a prospect,

BTW ... Jake Westbrook, the player Cleveland gave up for Kluber produced 2.7 WAS in 2 seasons with ST. Louis.  Trading for prospects can be a bust, but it has enormous upside I don't think you are recognizing.  

I would love for this to be true for the Twins, but I think Cleveland is an outlier, not the rule.  I don’t want to gamble on being another outlier.  

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Not really.  My argument is that it is extremely difficult to replace a playoff caliber starter.  We spent years trying  (mostly unsuccessfully) to do that.  Now that we have them in hand, we would get rid of them?  The value from acquired prospects is far less of a sure thing, regardless of who runs the front office.  

Oh it is difficult to trade someone who is a potential Game 1 and/or Game 2 playoff caliber starter, very tough. However, the Twins will not have Ryan or Lopez around in a couple of years. The Twins are also nowhere near rostering a playoff team. The talent level is pretty low collectively. Realistically the team needs upgrades at every position except Buxton. There is hope in a couple of players but that still leaves holes in a number of areas. I'm not sure how the team can proceed without making a number of trades.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Oh it is difficult to trade someone who is a potential Game 1 and/or Game 2 playoff caliber starter, very tough. However, the Twins will not have Ryan or Lopez around in a couple of years. The Twins are also nowhere near rostering a playoff team. The talent level is pretty low collectively. Realistically the team needs upgrades at every position except Buxton. There is hope in a couple of players but that still leaves holes in a number of areas. I'm not sure how the team can proceed without making a number of trades.

While I know this to be somewhat unlikely, I would prefer to keep both of these guys around and then extending one of them as the bridge to the next good team.  Certainly more talent is needed on the offensive and defensive side of the ledger, but IMHO tearing down what you have that is right isn’t the way to go.  

I’m less convinced that they are miles away from being a contender — this obviously depends on your definition/desire.  For me, I’m pretty happy if we consistently play decent baseball and challenge for the division title regularly.   The gamble that I am willing to take is that if you make the playoffs you have a shot.  1987 taught me that.  The current roster, with some development, call-ups, and supplements could make it happen.   I think gutting the rotation by trading Lopez and Ryan means that we are destined to be non-competitive for the next several years.  I’ve lived through that before and would choose not to do that again if I can.  Byron Buxton would probably agree. 

[jjswol]

Dan, I know you are on the inside and get the good scoop from your sources. The thing I don't understand is how these two "minor investors" would put their money into an organization that is cutting payroll like this. Why would they want to do so? Something here does not make sense. Investors like this are not stupid, they don't just throw away money. There is more here than meets the eye.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

While I know this to be somewhat unlikely, I would prefer to keep both of these guys around and then extending one of them as the bridge to the next good team.  Certainly more talent is needed on the offensive and defensive side of the ledger, but IMHO tearing down what you have that is right isn’t the way to go.  

I’m less convinced that they are miles away from being a contender — this obviously depends on your definition/desire.  For me, I’m pretty happy if we consistently play decent baseball and challenge for the division title regularly.   The gamble that I am willing to take is that if you make the playoffs you have a shot.  1987 taught me that.  The current roster, with some development, call-ups, and supplements could make it happen.   I think gutting the rotation by trading Lopez and Ryan means that we are destined to be non-competitive for the next several years.  I’ve lived through that before and would choose not to do that again if I can.  Byron Buxton would probably agree. 

The Twins currently have Ryan and soon Lopez is returning. They are not a .500 team with or without them for the next two years unless they have 3-4 ROY type performances which is very highly unlikely. Signing Ryan will cost between $150-200 million over 6 years. Will the Pohlads sign off on that contract?  If Lopez is good next year he would enter the final year of his contract with leverage and demand a similar contract. I would love it if the Twins signed both of them for the next 6 years. Is that even remotely possible? I'm going with NO. This is why it is terribly important that the Twins trade both of them (surely Ryan) for talent, even if we are hesitant to trust the front office in the identifying or negotiating a good deal.

[hitterscount]

19 hours ago, AlGoreRythm said:

I cannot find that number anywhere, and it directly contradicts the story I quoted from Bob Nightengale from '23, so I'd really appreciate if you can provide a link.

I'm super interested if he's actually making 10M/yr. If he's one of MLBs highest paid managers that might get me on the Fire Rocco train.

Edit: I found the 3 yr 30M contract number. It was the AI generated result on Google. I looked at the source and the AI was erroneously pulling Christian Vasquez's 2022 contract number from Cot's Baseball Dictionary site.

I still cannot find any actual real dollar figure for Rocco's manager contract.

I have no clue what he is making, obviously the 10 million is ridiculous. Saw 2.4 million on a different site, but am beginning to think that was the total between 23-25 because in another google search I see 750,000 salary in 2024. So it looks like he isn’t overpaid….. but I still don’t like what I see on the field or what some of the current and former players are saying about the culture. 

[Linus]

4 hours ago, jjswol said:

Dan, I know you are on the inside and get the good scoop from your sources. The thing I don't understand is how these two "minor investors" would put their money into an organization that is cutting payroll like this. Why would they want to do so? Something here does not make sense. Investors like this are not stupid, they don't just throw away money. There is more here than meets the eye.

Because if they trade Pablo the Twins could make $30-50 million next year and they would get their proportion. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

10 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins currently have Ryan and soon Lopez is returning. They are not a .500 team with or without them for the next two years unless they have 3-4 ROY type performances which is very highly unlikely. Signing Ryan will cost between $150-200 million over 6 years. Will the Pohlads sign off on that contract?  If Lopez is good next year he would enter the final year of his contract with leverage and demand a similar contract. I would love it if the Twins signed both of them for the next 6 years. Is that even remotely possible? I'm going with NO. This is why it is terribly important that the Twins trade both of them (surely Ryan) for talent, even if we are hesitant to trust the front office in the identifying or negotiating a good deal.

This is where we disagree.  With Ryan and Lopez returning, and both having solid years, which is not a crazy assumption, the Twins could indeed be .500 or better.  It will require some player improvement and acquisition, but not 3-4 ROY type performances. What would that look like?  Let's start with the easiest stuff first:

1. Ober returns to form and the other two (or three if no Ober) rotation spots are filled in a reasonable manner by some of their many starting pitchers and starting pitcher prospects.  That should be doable.

2. Buxton remains pretty healthy, which really hasn't been a problem this year, so here's hoping for the best.

3. Lee, Lewis, & Keaschall hold down 3/4 of the infield defensively and two of the three decide to hit. I'm less sure of this, but it could happen.  Besides, hopefully Culpepper will be knocking on the door soon. 

4. The Twins sign/trade for a first baseman who can hit and play enough defense to be successful.  Wallner becomes a mostly full-time DH and learns how to play first base enough to be the backup.  Requires some $$ layout, but even the Pohlads won't sign $0 worth of free agents. 

5.  Ryan Jeffers continues to catch and we trade for/sign a solid #2 catcher, perhaps a young one who could step into the #1 role next year.  That would be a luxury.  I'll take passable.  Same caveat as #4 on money.

5.  The outfield becomes Buxton, Roden (I think he will hit -- he has every step of the way until this year), and one of the youngsters -- ERod, GGonzalez or WJenkins steps up to be a full-time starter in the majors.  That doesn't seem far-fetched either. 

6.  The bench is Clemens, Martin, and Outman (until he is displaced).  Don't love it, but it's better than we've had at various times in the past. 

7.  The bullpen is a mess.  Take a couple of failed starters (Ohl, etc.), add a couple of didn't make the rotation types (whoever is left standing without a chair), sign/trade for a couple of unproven but seem likely to succeed types, spend a little money on a proven back end reliever or two.  Shake it up.  The whole thing has to jell somehow.  This is the one I'm least sure of, but also can be (and has been in the past) built on the fly during the season -- I think we're doing this right now, although not very successfully.  

Who are we trading?  People with little to no value for a bag of balls -- leftover bullpen arms, Miranda, AAAA guys.  People with a little bit of value -- Larnach, Julien, maybe Outman, a prospect or two, a non-prospect or two -- packaged together for at least some bullpen arms.  

This requires a little bit of expenditure for a first baseman, a second catcher, and some back end bullpen help.  I'm not convinced that the Pohlads are going to break the bank, but with all the cuts they made, it's a very affordable situation - even for them. 

The difference between my approach and yours is that you see light at the end of a short two year tunnel.  I do not.  I think that without those two anchoring starting pitchers, things get really gloomy in Target Field next year.  If we trade those two without adequate replacements, we're looking at a 100 loss team that has nothing to build on to get better in 2027.  If we're lucky, in 2028, we're back where we are now and we've suffered through two years of really ugly baseball.  If we're not. . . Yikes!

 

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I would love for this to be true for the Twins, but I think Cleveland is an outlier, not the rule.  I don’t want to gamble on being another outlier.  

The four most successful teams with modest revenue over the past 25 years are Oakland, Cleveland, Tampa, and Milwaukee.  They have outperformed a significant number of team with considerably more revenue.  Oakland has actually had the most success in the last couple of decades, but they have not been good lately.  Milwaukee has not had as much success, but their success is in the present.  Their success in acquisition has been very similar.  Milwaukee differs in that they made a big trade for Yelich, Adames, and Contreras.  Contreas was not as well established as the others but he did have a pretty good season the year before they acquired him.  However, I just checked their current stats and the table below shows production by acquisition method.  This table shows the WAR for players on pace to produce 1.5 or more WAR.  As you can see players acquired as prospects represent the most players and highest percentage of WAR by a considerable margin.

2	Drafted	6.5	22.4%
2	International Draft	4	13.8%
7	Acquired as Prospect	13.2	45.5%
2	Trade for Proven	5.3	18.3%
0	Free Agent	0	0.0%

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

This is where we disagree.  With Ryan and Lopez returning, and both having solid years, which is not a crazy assumption, the Twins could indeed be .500 or better.  It will require some player improvement and acquisition, but not 3-4 ROY type performances. What would that look like?  Let's start with the easiest stuff first:

1. Ober returns to form and the other two (or three if no Ober) rotation spots are filled in a reasonable manner by some of their many starting pitchers and starting pitcher prospects.  That should be doable.

2. Buxton remains pretty healthy, which really hasn't been a problem this year, so here's hoping for the best.

3. Lee, Lewis, & Keaschall hold down 3/4 of the infield defensively and two of the three decide to hit. I'm less sure of this, but it could happen.  Besides, hopefully Culpepper will be knocking on the door soon. 

4. The Twins sign/trade for a first baseman who can hit and play enough defense to be successful.  Wallner becomes a mostly full-time DH and learns how to play first base enough to be the backup.  Requires some $$ layout, but even the Pohlads won't sign $0 worth of free agents. 

5.  Ryan Jeffers continues to catch and we trade for/sign a solid #2 catcher, perhaps a young one who could step into the #1 role next year.  That would be a luxury.  I'll take passable.  Same caveat as #4 on money.

5.  The outfield becomes Buxton, Roden (I think he will hit -- he has every step of the way until this year), and one of the youngsters -- ERod, GGonzalez or WJenkins steps up to be a full-time starter in the majors.  That doesn't seem far-fetched either. 

6.  The bench is Clemens, Martin, and Outman (until he is displaced).  Don't love it, but it's better than we've had at various times in the past. 

7.  The bullpen is a mess.  Take a couple of failed starters (Ohl, etc.), add a couple of didn't make the rotation types (whoever is left standing without a chair), sign/trade for a couple of unproven but seem likely to succeed types, spend a little money on a proven back end reliever or two.  Shake it up.  The whole thing has to jell somehow.  This is the one I'm least sure of, but also can be (and has been in the past) built on the fly during the season -- I think we're doing this right now, although not very successfully.  

Who are we trading?  People with little to no value for a bag of balls -- leftover bullpen arms, Miranda, AAAA guys.  People with a little bit of value -- Larnach, Julien, maybe Outman, a prospect or two, a non-prospect or two -- packaged together for at least some bullpen arms.  

This requires a little bit of expenditure for a first baseman, a second catcher, and some back end bullpen help.  I'm not convinced that the Pohlads are going to break the bank, but with all the cuts they made, it's a very affordable situation - even for them. 

The difference between my approach and yours is that you see light at the end of a short two year tunnel.  I do not.  I think that without those two anchoring starting pitchers, things get really gloomy in Target Field next year.  If we trade those two without adequate replacements, we're looking at a 100 loss team that has nothing to build on to get better in 2027.  If we're lucky, in 2028, we're back where we are now and we've suffered through two years of really ugly baseball.  If we're not. . . Yikes!

 

Hey, I'm a Twins fan so I hope you are correct. The Twins winning would be nice. A 83-88 win team that plays good baseball would be wonderful. A playoff spot and getting hot in the series like 1987 is the dream. 

I don't see it right now and I'm  an optimist. The Chicago White Sox have a better team than the Minnesota Twins at this time in my opinion. Changes will need to be made to improve the talent.  Apparently Falvey and Baldelli will continue to lead the club, which is just bad luck for fans of baseball.

There is a small percentage possibility that Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, and Kyler Fedko step in to help players like Keaschall and maybe Lee form a decent nucleus around the pitching but the inexperience is just too much to overcome in the short term. Both Ryan and Lopez are gone after 2 years unless people believe the Twins will fork out $300+ million for the pair in long term contracts. I don't believe either will be here past 2027 in a best case scenario due to salary demands. If either or both are injured or totally ineffective a contract doesn't happen either. So it becomes a matter of priorities. Teams that need pitching and have money (Boston, Detroit, etc.) will be willing to hedge their bets on tipping the balance with the right addition while the Twins are left with their ownership issues and roster shortcomings. Clemons, Martin, Julien, Larnach, Outman, Miranda, and some others are waiver pickups. Teams may see value in Jeffers, Wallner, Lewis, and Ober. We can be sure there is interest in Ryan and Lopez. Thus it becomes a test of evaluation by the Twins and other teams to find a path forward towards rebuilding. When the Twins sold off their bullpen retooling moved to rebuilding. I will say, we can always be surprised by Joe Pohlad deciding he wants to sign Bellinger and Alonso. Again, I just don't see any short term gains. By 2028, the Twins can be relevant if the right moves are made this offseason. 

After the 2023 and 2024 season I called for a few dramatic trades that could have possibly helped the team.  I wanted to explore deals that included some of Jeffers, Lewis, Wallner, Lee, Julien, Miranda, Larnach, Jax, and Ober. Not all, naturally, but find which teams had matches for their needs in an attempt to upgrade the Twins roster. It didn't happen. 

None of us knows what will happen but the defense is in pretty dire straits and the team speed is at a shuffle. This affects the pitchers more than expected. 

Whatever, but I sure hope your idea works.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 8/22/2025 at 8:51 AM, hitterscount said:

I googled what he's making, it said he signed a 3/30 million $ contract in 2022.  It didn't mention a option , but if there was I'm guessing it wouldn't be a paycut.

Baldelli did not sign a $30m contract. Craig Counsell is the highest-paid manager in baseball and he makes $8m a season. Whatever source you googled, I am literally 100% sure it is wrong.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Oh, it's an AI answer. Never, ever trust AI. It's ****ing garbage.

I am 100% sure this is wrong.

[AlGoreRythm]

17 hours ago, hitterscount said:

I have no clue what he is making, obviously the 10 million is ridiculous. Saw 2.4 million on a different site, but am beginning to think that was the total between 23-25 because in another google search I see 750,000 salary in 2024. So it looks like he isn’t overpaid….. but I still don’t like what I see on the field or what some of the current and former players are saying about the culture. 

Totally reasonable thought process. I'm just not convinced they're going to find anyone better for what they're willing to pay, which I see as the problem all the way down the line.

When we don't have accurate insight into what price they value coaches or front office personnel at, it makes it difficult to judge them in any way other than performance. 

But if they're spending Ty France money relative to the position, whether it's first base, manager, or GM, we should all expect Ty France type results.

[Mike Sixel]

14 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, it's an AI answer. Never, ever trust AI. It's ****ing garbage.

I am 100% sure this is wrong.

Truly astounding anyone looks at this **** and believes it. 

[jjswol]

On 8/23/2025 at 3:18 PM, Linus said:

Because if they trade Pablo the Twins could make $30-50 million next year and they would get their proportion. 

These potential minority owners like the "Marty Davis" and "Wilfs" are in it for the long haul, not a quick buck and these guys will get first dibs when the Pohlad's again decide to sell as early as next year according to rumors.

[Major League Ready]

On 8/23/2025 at 3:34 PM, Rod Carews Birthday said:

This is where we disagree.  With Ryan and Lopez returning, and both having solid years, which is not a crazy assumption, the Twins could indeed be .500 or better.  It will require some player improvement and acquisition, but not 3-4 ROY type performances. What would that look like?  Let's start with the easiest stuff first:

1. Ober returns to form and the other two (or three if no Ober) rotation spots are filled in a reasonable manner by some of their many starting pitchers and starting pitcher prospects.  That should be doable.

2. Buxton remains pretty healthy, which really hasn't been a problem this year, so here's hoping for the best.

3. Lee, Lewis, & Keaschall hold down 3/4 of the infield defensively and two of the three decide to hit. I'm less sure of this, but it could happen.  Besides, hopefully Culpepper will be knocking on the door soon. 

4. The Twins sign/trade for a first baseman who can hit and play enough defense to be successful.  Wallner becomes a mostly full-time DH and learns how to play first base enough to be the backup.  Requires some $$ layout, but even the Pohlads won't sign $0 worth of free agents. 

5.  Ryan Jeffers continues to catch and we trade for/sign a solid #2 catcher, perhaps a young one who could step into the #1 role next year.  That would be a luxury.  I'll take passable.  Same caveat as #4 on money.

5.  The outfield becomes Buxton, Roden (I think he will hit -- he has every step of the way until this year), and one of the youngsters -- ERod, GGonzalez or WJenkins steps up to be a full-time starter in the majors.  That doesn't seem far-fetched either. 

6.  The bench is Clemens, Martin, and Outman (until he is displaced).  Don't love it, but it's better than we've had at various times in the past. 

7.  The bullpen is a mess.  Take a couple of failed starters (Ohl, etc.), add a couple of didn't make the rotation types (whoever is left standing without a chair), sign/trade for a couple of unproven but seem likely to succeed types, spend a little money on a proven back end reliever or two.  Shake it up.  The whole thing has to jell somehow.  This is the one I'm least sure of, but also can be (and has been in the past) built on the fly during the season -- I think we're doing this right now, although not very successfully.  

Who are we trading?  People with little to no value for a bag of balls -- leftover bullpen arms, Miranda, AAAA guys.  People with a little bit of value -- Larnach, Julien, maybe Outman, a prospect or two, a non-prospect or two -- packaged together for at least some bullpen arms.  

This requires a little bit of expenditure for a first baseman, a second catcher, and some back end bullpen help.  I'm not convinced that the Pohlads are going to break the bank, but with all the cuts they made, it's a very affordable situation - even for them. 

The difference between my approach and yours is that you see light at the end of a short two year tunnel.  I do not.  I think that without those two anchoring starting pitchers, things get really gloomy in Target Field next year.  If we trade those two without adequate replacements, we're looking at a 100 loss team that has nothing to build on to get better in 2027.  If we're lucky, in 2028, we're back where we are now and we've suffered through two years of really ugly baseball.  If we're not. . . Yikes!

 

I don't think the goal should be a 500 team.  Even with that modest goal you are relying on Lewis, Lee, and Roden.  Lewis and Lee have been bad for two years.  Roden was good in the minors but has shown zero thus far in the majors.  You need to replace Larnach with a prospect.  We have a few good candidates but none of them are going to be ready to start 2026.  You need to come up with a 1B and back-up catcher, nobody on that bench can hit, and you need to replace 5 good BP arms.   Basically,  As Kenny Rogers once said, you got to know when to hold em and know when to fold em.