The Downside and Upside of a Light Sell at the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

With only days until the MLB trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins are stuck in the uncomfortable middle ground. They’re not a bottom-feeder club with an obvious path toward a complete rebuild, but they also haven’t lived up to preseason expectations. That makes them one of several fringe teams likely to lean toward a “light sell” by dealing away expiring contracts while hanging onto their core pieces.

While that approach may seem sensible at first glance, it comes with real consequences. And in the Twins’ case, there are both compelling risks and potential benefits to a more conservative strategy.

The Downside: Selling Light Means Holding Risk
The most obvious downside of a “light sell” is that Minnesota's most valuable assets aren't the rentals that would be traded away. They’re the arms with multiple years of control. Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Joe Ryan are all under team control through at least 2027, and each would command significant value on the trade market. The Athletic recently updated its MLB trade deadline Big Board, and all three pitchers were ranked in the top 10, with Ryan at the top. 

But by keeping them past the deadline, the Twins are risking injury, which is something that feels inevitable when it comes to pitchers. Duran dealt with injury issues in the minors, and Ryan has missed time in each of the last two seasons. One awkward landing or one sore shoulder can tank a player’s value, turning what could’ve been a franchise-altering return into an extended rehab schedule. 

There’s also the simple math of diminishing value. Every week the team holds onto Duran, Jax, and Ryan in a non-contending season is a week of production they can’t recoup. Minnesota has already used four months of team control on a sub-.500 product. Using up August and September with nothing to show for it only magnifies that inefficiency.

And when it comes to relievers, this is the time to strike. Every year, contenders overpay for bullpen help at the deadline. In July, high-leverage relievers like Duran and Jax become unicorns. Teams dreaming of October pay steep prices for even the illusion of reliability in the late innings. Waiting for the offseason means stepping into a more crowded market, and often it is one that’s less emotional and more patient.

The Upside: Bet on the Offseason or the Bounce-Back
That said, it’s easy to see why the front office may be hesitant to pull the trigger on bigger moves. The trade market for players with multiple years of control often gets more competitive in the winter, when the pool of buyers increases and clubs have more financial flexibility. By holding onto Ryan, Duran, and Jax now, the Twins can wait to see if the market grows and perhaps catch a team willing to pay more in the right setting.

There’s also the 2026 window. The Twins won’t enter a complete rebuild this winter. They have too much talent on the roster and too many veterans signed through next year to pivot into a teardown. Keeping the pitching core in place would allow the team to regroup this offseason and re-enter the AL Central conversation in the spring, a division that has shown time and again that 85 wins can be enough to compete.

And truthfully, it’s hard to get fair value in trades for controlled arms. There’s a reason why frontline starters and dominant relievers rarely get moved with multiple years left. Teams simply don’t want to pay what it takes. If the Twins feel the market won’t reflect the internal value they assign to Ryan, Duran, or Jax, it makes sense to hold.

Plus, there's always the wild card factor (literally and figuratively). As uninspiring as the 2025 season has been, it’s not mathematically over. Last year’s Tigers club looked like deadline sellers before they got hot in August and clawed their way into the postseason. That team not only made the playoffs but also won a series. If the Twins want any chance of repeating that script, it’ll require big performances from their best arms.

Walking the Tightrope
At the end of the day, a “light sell” leaves the Twins walking a fine line. It may be the most palatable option for a front office trying to navigate the delicate balance between the present and the future. There is also the looming sale of the team hanging over every decision made by Derek Falvey and company. But the risk is clear: holding onto valuable assets in a lost season is a dangerous game, especially when those assets are pitchers.

Still, the Twins’ best path back to relevance may lie in keeping their core intact. They need to be right about the value of time and hope it doesn’t come back to bite them.

Should the Twins do more than a “light sell?” Do you trust the front office to make critical trades? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[LambchoP]

I really hope we sell off the expiring contracts in exchange for some players who can help us next year. Either major league guys or young guys ready for the majors. If we hold onto Ryan Duran and Jax, we have a good group of pitchers to build around next year. If we do this deadline right, with only a few additions in the off-season the Twins could be a relavant team again as soon as next year.

[rationalfan]

This is the time to win.  Unfortunately this season isn't clicking - apart from one 13-14 game stretch in the spring, they haven't been a good team.  They are well set up in the next few years if they keep the payroll where it is now.  The players they have just need to perform and the manager needs to get the whole to be equal or greater to the sum of the parts which has not happened since the juiced ball and short COVID seasons (anomalies).  Ideally, the franchise sale gets completed and the new owner(s) keep the current talent but bring in their own GM and manager and our current players put up the numbers and the prospects pan out.  Yeah, it probably won't happen, but that plan is better than starting over.

Something else I'd try to do - an extension for Willi.  He is extremely valuable to this team and offers value even when slumping at the plate, but it's hard to extend people at this time of year so instead yeah trade him.

 

[tony&rodney]

"Still, the Twins’ best path back to relevance may lie in keeping their core intact."

The pitching is decent. On the position side the Twins have 2 NT contracts in Buxton and Correa. Other than that, what position players are members of this "core" that people keep referring to in articles and comments?

I have wondered how Colorado Rockies fans identify their core? Tovar is one. 

Is the core the players on the 40 person roster with control? The 13 position players on the active roster? I struggle to identify the "core". To be clear there have been Twins teams where I could rattle off a "core".

[jmlease1]

I think the biggest downside to a "light sell" at this deadline is if the team isn't sold and we remain stuck in the mud for another off-season. I'm honestly not particularly worried in a real decline in value for Jax, Duran, or Ryan over the next 2 months; the track record is strong enough that it won't impact their value much. But trading Ryan in particular is a signal of surrender for 2026 and potentially beyond, and making that kind of deal needs to happen under new ownership. Beyond that, all three of those guys will have substantial trade value in the offseason. YMMV on whether it will be more or not right now, but I think it will have more varied interest where different types of talent would be available. Deal them now and it's prospects only.

The upside to selling now on relievers in particular is you might get someone to overpay.

[Dman]

I might regret saying this, but if the return was right for a catcher or legit centerfielder I'd trade one of jax or Duran,  I think the team can withstand losing one of those top end arms if it brings back something they really need.

I'd like to think that between, Castro, Bader and Coulombe they get get back some near ready relief arms from other clubs to help make up for the lose of an arm there.

Still it has been nice to have a strong pen and messing with that makes me uneasy, but if you are going to trade a reliever that covers just one inning that seems like a good play.  I am torn a bit on that one.  I wouldn't just trade to trade as they have years of control left.  If you get a good overpay with things we need included I think I'd do that.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think the "light sell" is the way to go. Sell the guys on expiring contracts if you can get any value, even if it's A or A+ ball guys. Test the market for Jax and Larnach and trade them if there is real value there. I'm off of Castro - good UTL on a good team playing 3-4 days a week, mediocre every day player on a bad team. Use the room created to call up Keaschall, Martin, Eeles, Julien (and Sabato if you have room), and give them some playing time. Try Ohl in the bullpen. Baker as a long man or 5th starter. See what you have for 20026-2027. Do not replace the traded guys with Tonkin, Erasmo Ramirez, Dobnak, etc. They aren't any more part of the medium or long term plan than the guys you trade.  I would think about a re-set in AAA for Lee if needed to give Eeles a shot and there is no reason I can see why Keirsey is on this team instead of Martin or Eeles. 

[rdehring]

Interesting way of looking at it, Cody.

Not certain I understand your logic.  Are you saying that the Twins, or any non-competitive team should always trade their best young players when they have high value?  Curious how they would ever get better by doing that?

You also stated there is "too much talent on this roster."  Saw a quote from Falvey in this morning's Strib.  Said something along the lines that he still believes this is a talented team.

If there is so much talent why are they playing horse crap baseball?  Other than Buxton, Ryan and a couple relievers, no one is really playing all that well.  So which is it?  Is there really not all that much talent?  Or the talent is there and they aren't playing well? 

I don't know if this team is talented or not.  Thought they were earlier this year, but not sure today.  If they are, then there are some real management/coaching problems.  If they aren't, then the FO is responsible for not getting the best team they can on the field.  What I do know is that it is difficult to win with a team that is both slow and poor defensively.  I also know it is difficult to watch said team.

[jmlease1]

44 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I think the "light sell" is the way to go. Sell the guys on expiring contracts if you can get any value, even if it's A or A+ ball guys. Test the market for Jax and Larnach and trade them if there is real value there. I'm off of Castro - good UTL on a good team playing 3-4 days a week, mediocre every day player on a bad team. Use the room created to call up Keaschall, Martin, Eeles, Julien (and Sabato if you have room), and give them some playing time. Try Ohl in the bullpen. Baker as a long man or 5th starter. See what you have for 20026-2027. Do not replace the traded guys with Tonkin, Erasmo Ramirez, Dobnak, etc. They aren't any more part of the medium or long term plan than the guys you trade.  I would think about a re-set in AAA for Lee if needed to give Eeles a shot and there is no reason I can see why Keirsey is on this team instead of Martin or Eeles. 

I'm less off on Lee than you seem to be, but I generally agree. I think there's more room for someone like Sabato to get actual PT than Eeles (I wouldn't swap Lee for Eeles at this point; while I'm rooting for him, I think there's a bit of "backup QB syndrome" going on with Eeles where he's being overestimated because we haven't seen him and he's the new shiny toy than enough indicators that he's actually going to be better than someone like Lee)

I would trade one of Jax/Duran if there's a strong market with real value there, and which ever one commands the most return would be the one I would deal...but only if it's a good return. I'm not interested in something like the idiot Bowden kind of trade where we throw a team both of those guys (Bowden had us giving them Castro too!) for 1 real prospect, a suspect, and a lottery ticket.

[LA Vikes Fan]

You may be right on Eeles, but I would like to find out and do it this year. I'm not with you on trading Duran. Closers are hard to find and we should keep him if we think we can compete in 2026 or 2027. I think we can. 

I agree that we should see Sabato. Maybe up with Julien and s a 1B/DH tandem? That would mean trading France, no huge loss longer term, and limit Clemens' playing time. Clemens is a fun story but he's a 29 year old having his first taste of any sort of success at the MLB level and he's hitting all of .216 with a .288 OBP. The .785 OPS is nice but do we really think he's going to continue to his a HR every 14 ABs? Let's see if Julien or Sabato have anything to offer going forward and we can play Clemens off the bench. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

You may be right on Eeles, but I would like to find out and do it this year. I'm not with you on trading Duran. Closers are hard to find and we should keep him if we think we can compete in 2026 or 2027. I think we can. Jax should be available. 

I agree that we should see Sabato. Maybe up with Julien and s a 1B/DH tandem? That would mean trading France, no huge loss longer term, and limit Clemens playing time. Clemens is a fun story but he's a 29 year old having his first taste of any sort of success at the MLB level and he's hitting all of .216 with a .288 OBP. The .7

[tony&rodney]

When Falvey states that he still believes the team has the talent to win this morning, how can there be any hope? Nobody is prodding him. I don't get him at all. Actually I don't need to and it isn't important.

The play on the field is all I care about.

I see the slowest team in baseball playing very poor defense and not running the bases along with not hitting. Pitchers get tagged with hits on routine plays regularly. The product is difficult to watch. 

What do others see? The Twins were outplayed by the lowly Rockies, the slumping Dodgers, and the woeful Nationals since the break. The Red Sox lost 2 of 3 to the Cubs and Phillies before winning 2 of 3 versus the Dodgers. 

Another game tonight ... hope Sim pitches well.

[Larry Janisewski]

19 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

When Falvey states that he still believes the team has the talent to win this morning, how can there be any hope? Nobody is prodding him. I don't get him at all. Actually I don't need to and it isn't important.

The play on the field is all I care about.

I see the slowest team in baseball playing very poor defense and not running the bases along with not hitting. Pitchers get tagged with hits on routine plays regularly. The product is difficult to watch. 

What do others see? The Twins were outplayed by the lowly Rockies, the slumping Dodgers, and the woeful Nationals since the break. The Red Sox lost 2 of 3 to the Cubs and Phillies before winning 2 of 3 versus the Dodgers. 

Another game tonight ... hope Sim pitches well.

Totally agree with your first comments. For 2 seasons twins have basically played with the same lineup of position players with very underwhelming results. It is time for somebody to evaluate each individual player and make some tough decisions. I'd certainly include each member of the coaching staff as well.

[Major League Ready]

On 7/28/2025 at 9:42 AM, LambchoP said:

I really hope we sell off the expiring contracts in exchange for some players who can help us next year. Either major league guys or young guys ready for the majors. If we hold onto Ryan Duran and Jax, we have a good group of pitchers to build around next year. If we do this deadline right, with only a few additions in the off-season the Twins could be a relavant team again as soon as next year.

Joe Ryan is an anomaly.  With the exception of top of the rotation starters and back of the BP relief pitchers, expiring contracts do not generally bring back high ceiling major league ready players.   Would you give up Zebby Matthews for Coulombe, Bader or Castro?  Teams don't give up players they expect to have an impact in the next season unless they are getting a combination of impact and years of control.