The Pressly Paradox: Why Selling Relievers Is a Precarious Path

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, saviking said:

Pretty much agree. The most I would do is trade Jax, but only if you got a big package. My hunch is Duran is the only one who could get a huge package. 

I could make some sort of joke about "if you got a big package."  But I won't.

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I could cite many multiple examples of trades that don't work out.  I could do the same for trades that do work out.  I can tell you this much though, if you trade pitching you'll find yourself in a position of needing pitching.  Seems kind of foolish.

I can agree with you.  I"m just saying that to reject the idea of making a trade just because a similar one seven years ago didn't work out well, also seems foolish.

[Danchat]

The discourse regarding trading veterans for prospects on Twins Daily confuses me... feels like people are saying "it's too risky to trade proven talent for unknown prospects" but then on the flip side I also see the idea that sellers inherently gain more values from these trades and we should hold onto our own prospects. Which is it? I know it's not the same people saying those two things, but sometimes it feels like it.

The issue with the Pressly trade is A) he instantly became an elite reliever after making a tweak to his arsenal in Houston and B) our farm system poorly developed Alcala and Celestino / they were misvalued as prospects. The idea of trading a reliever for multiple prospects is fine if you're selling high (they weren't on Pressly) and they can fetch a good return. And I get that we shouldn't trust this front office to get the right return, but the flip side of that is not adding young talent to a farm system that needs it and Duran/Jax continue to pitch for a disappointing team that isn't built to win now or in the future. 

[Heiny]

I am mostly in favor of building a team from your own farm system especially in the case of teams with mid to lower payrolls year in and year out.  I think that the Twins had a very promising team starting this year that just didn't play out as well as expected.  I think the Twins have a promising outlook for "26" and "27" with Buck, CC, Jeffers, Lewis, Lee, Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Mathews and about 3/4 of our bullpen.  I am high on Jenkins and Keashcall being added next year along with some other of our own prospects.  By selling Jax or Duran for a good quality C and 1B I believe we positively round out the team.  The key is to get the most out our talent which did not happen this year.  I can see trading one of Wallner or Larnach but not both.  The managers job is to get the most out of his players and I haven't yet seen that out of Rocco except for "19".  Cannot sell on Ryan unless someone comes with a huge overpay and that would not be prospects.  Only a stud C and 1B with multiple years of control and prospects to boot.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I can agree with you.  I"m just saying that to reject the idea of making a trade just because a similar one seven years ago didn't work out well, also seems foolish.

Also kind of foolish to overlook the fact that MANY similar ones in prior years haven't worked out.

[terrydactyls]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Also kind of foolish to overlook the fact that MANY similar ones in prior years haven't worked out.

The article was about a single trade.  If their were "MANY" (thanks Mr. President) similar trades, they should have been mentioned.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

The article was about a single trade.  If their were "MANY" (thanks Mr. President) similar trades, they should have been mentioned.

REALLY?  Would you like a list?  Or have you actually followed baseball for any portion of you life?

[SwainZag]

On 7/25/2025 at 5:38 PM, Doc Lenz said:

The Pressly trade was terrible but top five ever and number one for me was Aaron Hicks for JR Murphy. Unbelievable baseball acumen.

Hicks had 2 good season with the Yankees which earned him a 7 year $70M contract where he was barely better than replacement level.....and played in less than 40% of games over those years.  Murphy was a bust and yes, they should have gotten more for him, but outside of 1.5 season in NY, he was a pretty average overpaid player.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, SwainZag said:

Hicks had 2 good season with the Yankees which earned him a 7 year $70M contract where he was barely better than replacement level.....and played in less than 40% of games over those years.  Murphy was a bust and yes, they should have gotten more for him, but outside of 1.5 season in NY, he was a pretty average overpaid player.

And J R Murphy gave the Twins 26 games with a ,413 OPS. Thats it. Never held a job for a full season in MLB after that 1 Twins season either.

That trade was a massive talent misjudgement. And massive is too weak an adjective but I can't think of a stronger one right now.

 

[Doc Lenz]

9 hours ago, SwainZag said:

Hicks had 2 good season with the Yankees which earned him a 7 year $70M contract where he was barely better than replacement level.....and played in less than 40% of games over those years.  Murphy was a bust and yes, they should have gotten more for him, but outside of 1.5 season in NY, he was a pretty average overpaid player.

No matter how you slice it, it was unforgivable