Chicago Cubs, Minnesota Twins Should Match Up on This Low-Wattage Trade

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

I think we can do better. The Twins have needed a legit everyday first baseman for years now. If they can't sign one this off-season then they need to trade for one. If not,maybe try Lewis out at first, if he can find his power swing again....

The Twins likely aren't going to trade for a cost controlled impact 1B though. Those players cost in both trade capital and likely salary. They went digging in the bargain bin this winter for Ty France and I expect they'll try to do some version of that again. Acquiring a young controllable 1B ripping up Triple-A is likely the best case scenario for cheaply patching together 1B. Maybe they'll try to move someone on the current roster there, but there hasn't been any indication of them doing it so far.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

The Twins likely aren't going to trade for a cost controlled impact 1B though. Those players cost in both trade capital and likely salary. They went digging in the bargain bin this winter for Ty France and I expect they'll try to do some version of that again. Acquiring a young controllable 1B ripping up Triple-A is likely the best case scenario for cheaply patching together 1B. Maybe they'll try to move someone on the current roster there, but there hasn't been any indication of them doing it so far.

That last bit is very confusing. It's a massive hole, and they move no one there. 

[Cody Pirkl]

17 hours ago, High heat said:

I could see Coulombe for Long as a good deal for both sides.  
 

Ummm Wille Castro even for a 1/2 season is going to cost more in prospect capital then Long.

I think trade return expectations for all of the rentals, Castro included, need to be tempered a bit. The big returns on those guys in recent years have usually been on pitchers. 

Last year Jesse Winker had a 128 wRC+ at the deadline and it only cost the Mets their #17 prospect. Willi has more flexibility defensively, although his metrics are way down, and he switch hits, though teams will likely prefer to use him mostly against RHP. He would be a great addition to just about any competing team, but he's not the type of player that will significantly increase their postseason chances.

[Cody Pirkl]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That last bit is very confusing. It's a massive hole, and they move no one there. 

They did try Julien and Miranda there at the end of last season and in this offseason, but I'm guessing it became apparent it just wasn't going to work. Maybe they'll still try moving one of the OFs there, but they're both in their late 20s and I question whether both or either are in their long term plans.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

They did try Julien and Miranda there at the end of last season and in this offseason, but I'm guessing it became apparent it just wasn't going to work. Maybe they'll still try moving one of the OFs there, but they're both in their late 20s and I question whether both or either are in their long term plans.

I mean, I'd rather they roll the dice on Julien again. Or Sabato who I didn't believe in with any certainly, than France. They don't seem to have a plan for next year either. I think that's my issue with this front office, the plan never seems clear, or at least not to work with hitters. 

Thanks for the articles and discussion.

[DJL44]

27 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I'll be honest, I don't think Ty France has any value to a competing team. The other 29 organizations didn't even want him for the $1m the Twins gave him, and they've been proven correct in their assessment since then.

I think that's correct. I think it's also true about Christian Vazquez. Both will finish the season with the Twins because no contender was interested.

[jorgenswest]

11 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I'll be honest, I don't think Ty France has any value to a competing team. The other 29 organizations didn't even want him for the $1m the Twins gave him, and they've been proven correct in their assessment since then.

I agree. It was a way of pointing out I wouldn’t offer them more than Coulombe other than to offer the player that comps to long on the other end of his career. I certainly am not adding a prospect to get Long. His positional inflexibility makes him an option as a starter or a player that shuttles between AAA and the majors. I don’t think he is a starter in a playoff team.

He is Ty France. The story of France’s career is BABIP. The Padres traded him in 2020 his best season by OPS and a season with a BABIP of .390. He was all star in 2022. A season in which he had a BABIP of .340 in the first half and .238 in the second half. He has been the same ball in play hitter all of these years. Long looks to be the same player. He has a good wRC+ of .136 but how much of that is driven by his BABIP of .378? Miranda is also a ball in play reliant on BABIP player.

I don’t think Ty France has played on a playoff team. It is hard to picture Jonathon Long as the first baseman on a playoff team. How much do they need to give up for that player? I think a few months and a playoff series of Coulombe is more than sufficient.

[AceWrigley]

1 hour ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Acquiring a young controllable 1B ripping up Triple-A is likely the best case scenario for cheaply patching together 1B.

Couldn't we consider Sabato in this class, though not maybe as young (26) as you're looking for?

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, AceWrigley said:

Couldn't we consider Sabato in this class, though not maybe as young (26) as you're looking for?

Absolutely, and I've come around on Sabato quite a bit. I still think that he's a longshot to be a meaningful contributor to the MLB team at this point. Long is something of a dart throw himself having not debuted, but he's younger and has much more sustained success in professional baseball. Even if we want to say the odds of either becoming an MLB caliber 1B are low, I like Long's odds significantly more, and I think having two of those lottery tickets is better than one.

[Cody Pirkl]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I agree. It was a way of pointing out I wouldn’t offer them more than Coulombe other than to offer the player that comps to long on the other end of his career. I certainly am not adding a prospect to get Long. His positional inflexibility makes him an option as a starter or a player that shuttles between AAA and the majors. I don’t think he is a starter in a playoff team.

He is Ty France. The story of France’s career is BABIP. The Padres traded him in 2020 his best season by OPS and a season with a BABIP of .390. He was all star in 2022. A season in which he had a BABIP of .340 in the first half and .238 in the second half. He has been the same ball in play hitter all of these years. Long looks to be the same player. He has a good wRC+ of .136 but how much of that is driven by his BABIP of .378? Miranda is also a ball in play reliant on BABIP player.

I don’t think Ty France has played on a playoff team. It is hard to picture Jonathon Long as the first baseman on a playoff team. How much do they need to give up for that player? I think a few months and a playoff series of Coulombe is more than sufficient.

Ty France has always been a contact oriented first baseman who uses all fields. Long is a dead pull hitter with 60 grade raw power. I don't see much similarity in their game aside from Long's high BABIPs at his last few stops in the minors. Matt Wallner did the same, but that doesn't mean Matt Wallner is the same type of player as Ty France.

And for what it's worth, if the Twins traded any of their rental players for Long who went on to have multiple years with a 125+ OPS+ like Ty France did at his peak, that deal would be a slam dunk. 

[Jeff K]

4 hours ago, RpR said:

Wallner is slow and awkward in the outfield, First Base needs quick reaction.

Lewis, has had some good moments, but more  of what the heck was that at Third Base,  and at First Base, Santana and France  made plays that Lewis could not do, ever.

We will have to disagree on their ability to play first.  Also, Lewis's ceiling is much higher than France's.  Not sure why you mentioned Santana as he plays for Cleveland.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

We will have to disagree on their ability to play first.  Also, Lewis's ceiling is much higher than France's.  Not sure why you mentioned Santana as he plays for Cleveland.

He was dissed just as France is at this point last year, with the same: Put this outfielder who is not good out there at First, so he can be not good there.

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Ty France has always been a contact oriented first baseman who uses all fields. Long is a dead pull hitter with 60 grade raw power. I don't see much similarity in their game aside from Long's high BABIPs at his last few stops in the minors. Matt Wallner did the same, but that doesn't mean Matt Wallner is the same type of player as Ty France.

And for what it's worth, if the Twins traded any of their rental players for Long who went on to have multiple years with a 125+ OPS+ like Ty France did at his peak, that deal would be a slam dunk. 

France had the same grade 60 raw power. In his last minor league year he was pulling the ball in AAA 43.4% of the time. He was over 40% throughout the minors. Long is 35.5% this year after 33% last year.

France pre2019 - Long pre2025

FV 40 - 40

Hit 45/50- 30/40

Game Power 50/55 - 30/55

Raw Power 60/60 - 60/60

Speed 30/30 - 40/40

Field 40/40 - 30/40

France was going into his 24 year old season and put up an OPS of 1.247 after this report. It was BABIP fueled. Long is 23 going into this season where he has put up a BABIP aided 1.115 after his report.

Major league pitching requires adjustments. France needed to go the opposite way to make use of his contact skills. He did not need to in the minors.

I should add that all along I have been ready to trade Coulombe for Long if they are sellers. I don’t want add any prospects to the deal though. I think they have something similar in Miranda who also rides the roller coaster of BABIP.

[Cody Pirkl]

51 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

France had the same grade 60 raw power. In his last minor league year he was pulling the ball in AAA 43.4% of the time. He was over 40% throughout the minors. Long is 35.5% this year after 33% last year.

France pre2019 - Long pre2025

FV 40 - 40

Hit 45/50- 30/40

Game Power 50/55 - 30/55

Raw Power 60/60 - 60/60

Speed 30/30 - 40/40

Field 40/40 - 30/40

France was going into his 24 year old season and put up an OPS of 1.247 after this report. It was BABIP fueled. Long is 23 going into this season where he has put up a BABIP aided 1.115 after his report.

Major league pitching requires adjustments. France needed to go the opposite way to make use of his contact skills. He did not need to in the minors.

I should add that all along I have been ready to trade Coulombe for Long if they are sellers. I don’t want add any prospects to the deal though. I think they have something similar in Miranda who also rides the roller coaster of BABIP.

Where are these prospect grades from? France was a 34th round pick and wasn't listed in the Padres top 50 prospects in 2017. I find that really hard to believe if he had grades similar to Long, who MLB.com has as #11 in the Padres system.

[Mike Sixel]

41 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Where are these prospect grades from? France was a 34th round pick and wasn't listed in the Padres top 50 prospects in 2017. I find that really hard to believe if he had grades similar to Long, who MLB.com has as #11 in the Padres system.

Fangraphs gives both long and Sabato 40s. Why not just try Sabato? 

[Cody Pirkl]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fangraphs gives both long and Sabato 40s. Why not just try Sabato? 

They certainly can, but they have nothing else behind him in the system. Worst case scenario they both can hit MLB pitching and they figure it out. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 7/16/2025 at 10:32 PM, DJL44 said:

The Mets have one of the top 10 prospects at 1B and he's definitely blocked.

Alonso is only signed through ‘25 - correct?

[Jeff K]

15 hours ago, RpR said:

He was dissed just as France is at this point last year, with the same: Put this outfielder who is not good out there at First, so he can be not good there.

I assume you know that Lewis is an infielder.

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Jeff K said:

I assume you know that Lewis is an infielder.

Not speaking of Lewis.