Twins 4, Rays 3: Harrison Bader Brings His Fireworks for a Twins Win!

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

 Twins have a better roster, but the Rays know how to play ball. That's why they are 48-40 & the Twins are 42-46.

I would dispute that the Twins have a better roster. The Rays have better team batting stats across the board and they lead the majors in stolen bases. When the Twins' starters are healthy, they might match up favorably with Tampa Bay, but with three guys out of the rotation, I think TB has better pitching as well. 

[JD-TWINS]

37 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Have you not seen him wearing a back brace in the dugout? There was a story about how it takes hours before the game to get his feet into playing shape.

He’s been wearing some heat or stimulation wrap on his back since ‘23……..baseball players stats are ebbs & flows……..Bader was great ….. not really good for a month …… stinging the ball lately. CC was brutal through most of May ……. had his Average up to .260 a few days ago ……. has had a rough few games. If he hits .270 going forward (his typical career mark) he’ll be near .265 for the Season. His power is lacking - XBH totals could use a jolt after the Break! He’s playing consistent SS so I don’t really see him as being a glaring issue, especially not going forward.

[tony&rodney]

Bader has been playing well above what was expected, which has been a treat. The Twins need some talent for the future and I wonder if there are any teams willing to trade for Bader. I'm looking at the Dodgers and wondering .... Jax or Duran plus Bader and Emmanuel Rodriguez for Dalton Rushing, River Ryan, and Emmet Sheehan.

[Riverbrian]

59 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I am among the most ardent supporters of the need to develop young/inexpensive players and I have been pointing to the Rays and Guardians as examples for a long time.  However, a couple things should be pointed out here. 

One, most TDers actively speak out against the operating models of these teams.  The most repeated themes on this site might be "dumpster diving" and "cheap Pohlads".  Tampa does waaay more "dumpster diving" and they spend far less that the twins.

Two, there is a point of diminishing returns.  Players best years tend to be the years they are arbitration eligible.  If the team was able to add talent in a perfectly uniform manner, they would have 13 prearb players with 13 arbitration eligible players or players or extensions and never have the need to add a single free agent.  They could average $10M on arbitration players and be within their current spending level.   

I agree with your basic point here.  They have been mediocre in adding young talent and that won't cut it with below average revenue.  I do see this ratio improving soon.  Paddack will be replaced by Festa / Matthews.  France will be replaced by Julien or Sabato.  Vasquez might be replaced by a FA but Cardenas has a good shot at that spot given his defense.   Bader is 50/50.  If they agree to terms with him, one of Larnach or Wallner gets traded.  Coulombe might be resigned or replaced by another free agent but we also might see one or two of the prospects being used in multi-inning relief role.  The development of Jenkins / Rodriguez / Martin will hopefully force a trade of Larnach or Wallner and further increase the ratio.  My bet is the ratio will improve in a month and pretty much stay that way.

I know you see what I'm talking about.

I'm just less optimistic that the ratio will be improving soon. I pray you are right but I'm just not sure. The Twins have had a highly ranked farm system for many years now and not enough to show for it.

I believe it's quite possible that IF the ratio improves... it will be because the Twins have no other options. Even... the Margot's of the world become too expensive and Sabato is taking France's place... not because he is ready but because they have to. 

I don't know if the Twins are failing to develop or are purposely choosing to limit the exposure of young players but either way... it's scares me and it needs to be fixed.   

I just broke down the outlook for 2026 in an earlier post. It's pretty scary. The bill is coming due. This club needs to turn around this development thing quickly.        

[Riverbrian]

51 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

When Lewis was on the IL, Brooks Lee was the youngest position player (24), and the second youngest was Wallner (27). That isn't much youth at all, even more than the number of pre-arb players would indicate. The Twins do need to get younger and faster if they want to compete. 

Perfectly stated.

The simple counting of pre-arb players leaves a lot of factors untouched. 

[jorgenswest]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Bader has been playing well above what was expected, which has been a treat. The Twins need some talent for the future and I wonder if there are any teams willing to trade for Bader. I'm looking at the Dodgers and wondering .... Jax or Duran plus Bader and Emmanuel Rodriguez for Dalton Rushing, River Ryan, and Emmet Sheehan.

Does trade Duran or Jax close the door on competing next year? It is hard to imagine them spending the money to fill the closer role in free agency. I get selling the door for this year. I don’t get selling next year.

Sheehan is just returning from Tommy John with few innings pitched this year. Ryan is out this season with Tommy John. I don’t think I would count on either being a significant member of the staff in 2026 and the best predictor of pitcher injury is previous injury. They both have had significant injuries.

I get that we need a catcher and the expiring contracts we have probably won’t help find that catcher. I just think the 2026 and 2027 roster will be better if they don’t make this trade. Teams can win with a mediocre catching group. Can teams win with a mediocre bullpen? Maybe Sheehan is a top closer of the future and that future is ready to begin soon. On the other hand if he is that close then maybe the Dodgers don’t trade for bullpen help and instead turn to him.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Does trade Duran or Jax close the door on competing next year? It is hard to imagine them spending the money to fill the closer role in free agency. I get selling the door for this year. I don’t get selling next year.

Sheehan is just returning from Tommy John with few innings pitched this year. Ryan is out this season with Tommy John. I don’t think I would count on either being a significant member of the staff in 2026 and the best predictor of pitcher injury is previous injury. They both have had significant injuries.

I get that we need a catcher and the expiring contracts we have probably won’t help find that catcher. I just think the 2026 and 2027 roster will be better if they don’t make this trade. Teams can win with a mediocre catching group. Can teams win with a mediocre bullpen? Maybe Sheehan is a top closer of the future and that future is ready to begin soon. On the other hand if he is that close then maybe the Dodgers don’t trade for bullpen help and instead turn to him.

Agree with all the maybes ... no idea if the Dodgers would even trade Sheehan for the 3 Twins much less add Rushing and Ryan.

Jax can be unhittable but also looks nervous at times. He is really good. Duran is tough for batters trying to square up the ball and also gets ground balls. He is really good. Because I'm wanting an upgrade at catcher I offer Jax first with Bader and EmRod. Sheehan is ready to contribute now and would fit in the bullpen. I'm willing to wait for Ryan to finish his rehab. EmRod is a gamble for all. Bader isn't here next year and the Twins sell high now.

[D.C Twins]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Have you not seen him wearing a back brace in the dugout? There was a story about how it takes hours before the game to get his feet into playing shape.

Turns out there was a reason two teams tore up a contract after a comprehensive medical exam. 

The last 3 years of the contract are gonna be a doozy 

[LambchoP]

Correa being one of the highest paid players in the entire game and one of our team leaders should inspire confidence. These are the guys you want to come up with RISP and in big game situations. All this year, whenever Correa comes to bat in a big moment, I let out a defeated sigh, and then watch him strikeouts or weakly ground out to short like he does so often. Twins need to find a way to get him right or he will be hurting this team with that contract for at least the next 4 years....

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Does trade Duran or Jax close the door on competing next year?

Sorry I forgot to answer this question and I meant to be direct (first) with this. No, I believe Duran or Jax can fill the role by themsleves. Additionally, I'm high on Varland. Arms like Sands and Steart are still inexpensive and I would resign Coulombe for $3M. Those 5 can be supplemented by any number of others including Travis Adams, Justin Topa, and a few minor league additions. My thinking is that the Twins need some offense and catch

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I know you see what I'm talking about.

I'm just less optimistic that the ratio will be improving soon. I pray you are right but I'm just not sure. The Twins have had a highly ranked farm system for many years now and not enough to show for it.

I believe it's quite possible that IF the ratio improves... it will be because the Twins have no other options. Even... the Margot's of the world become too expensive and Sabato is taking France's place... not because he is ready but because they have to. 

I don't know if the Twins are failing to develop or are purposely choosing to limit the exposure of young players but either way... it's scares me and it needs to be fixed.   

I just broke down the outlook for 2026 in an earlier post. It's pretty scary. The bill is coming due. This club needs to turn around this development thing quickly.        

The expiring contracts plus Correa's reduction is $42M so they will have the option to replace players like Bader, France and Coulombe via free agency.  Realistically, I know your skepticism is very fair.  My optimism is basically out of necessity because I whole heartedly agree with your premise here.  The odds of them solving the problem in free agency are not good. 

Which replacement causes you the most concern?

1) Keaschall adequately replaces Castro.  2) Festa replaces Paddack  3)  Julien or Sabato replaces France  

4) Cardenas replaces Vasquez.  5)  Martin/Rodriquez replaces Bader.

#5 is the one this gives me the most concern but Rodriquez also has a higher ceiling.

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agreed. Keeping Bader will require a new contract. Probably in the 9-12m a year for 2-3 years range. Worth it? I think so but a tough call, assuming he wants to stay.

2 years at $19M is Top End in my opinion…….can’t let the 2 HR game cloud logic too much. He’s historically good against LH pitching and he can play defense - usually misses chunks of season w/injury (knock on wood) & this year he’s hit RH pitching better and with others injuries, he’s been played more than anticipated.

Wallner needs to get his act together or their may need to be a knew approach for ‘26 OF corps.

[Riverbrian]

11 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The expiring contracts plus Correa's reduction is $42M so they will have the option to replace players like Bader, France and Coulombe via free agency.  Realistically, I know your skepticism is very fair.  My optimism is basically out of necessity because I whole heartedly agree with your premise here.  The odds of them solving the problem in free agency are not good. 

Which replacement causes you the most concern?

1) Keaschall adequately replaces Castro.  2) Festa replaces Paddack  3)  Julien or Sabato replaces France  

4) Cardenas replaces Vasquez.  5)  Martin/Rodriquez replaces Bader.

#5 is the one this gives me the most concern but Rodriquez also has a higher ceiling.

That's a hard question for me to answer. I'm really trying to keep away from speculation on individual prospects so my participation in any kind of ranking wouldn't be worth much. 

However, I can tell you that youth doesn't scare me at all. They cause me not one bit of concern so the answer is none of them. I get that sense of security from watching the other 29 teams. Youth is performing quite well around the league.

When I watch the Twins... I am suddenly concerned about all of them. We are behind. despite every a consistently high ranked farm system for quite some time... we are behind our peers.