Twins Déjà Vu: Is 2025 Just a Rerun, or a Rewrite?

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Look, we all know the 2024 Twins season was an emotional rollercoaster ride. A rough start, a 12-game winning streak that led to an exciting four month stretch with the Twins playing elite baseball, and an ending that left fans bitter. 2025 was shaping up much like the last month and a half of the 2024 season, with tough losses, blown leads, and uninspiring offense. Many wrote the team off, leading to declining interest and attendance. Then, a winning streak began that changed the narrative.

Here in mid-May, we have seen a brutal start to the season where it appeared to be getting late early, followed by another 12-game winning streak, which extended to 13 on Saturday night. This marks the first time in Twins history (12th in MLB history) where a team has gone back-to-back seasons with a 12-game winning streak or longer, and this streak is tied with the second longest in team history. Quite impressive in it’s own right, but it begs with question: are we truly just watching last season on repeat, or is this year different? What can fans glean from the respective streaks?

April 22 – May 4, 2024
Let’s look at last year's 12-game winning streak. You know, the one fueled by the rally sausage; that nitrate-packed log of questionable provenance. (I know Kyle Farmer brought it, but you know, before that. Was it filled with ground-up hope?)

For a two-week stretch, the Twins put up seven wins against the hapless White Sox and three more against the always-underperforming Angels. Just in case you have forgotten, that White Sox team was the worst of all time, and the Angels have been bad for the duration of Mike Trout’s career, and he’s in his 15th season with them. Then the Twins won the first two against the Red Sox, who at the time were a solid-but-unspectacular 18-14, before dropping the finale.

There’s plenty of evidence that during the 2024 winning streak, the hitting corps was punching above their weight class. They had the best OPS in baseball at .894, although it was fueled by an unsustainable .362 BABIP. The Twins hit .308, also unsustainable. The scored a full seven runs per game, with three games of 10 or more runs scored. They were middle of the pack in hard-hit rate, further suggesting a bit of a mirage. And, we saw the streaky nature of the hitters throughout the season, so this was a case of everyone clicking at the same time. Willi Castro had an OPS over 1.100 in this stretch, which…you know.

The pitching was good, but not elite. They had a 3.08 ERA, good for 10th in baseball. This was backed up by a 3.11 FIP which was 4th in the majors. Chris Paddack threw 13 innings without allowing a run!

May 3 - May 16, 2025
The 2025 streak has felt a bit different, particularly since it’s not fueled by magical cold cuts. Sure, the hitters have adopted a home run Centurion helmet, but this streak hasn’t been driven by bombs, or even the offense as a whole. Most impressively, rather than notching wins against the dregs of the league, the 2025 Twins have earned victories against mostly playoff-caliber teams, and a couple that were predicted to be prior to the season.

They began by taking the final two against the Red Sox. The Sox were two games over .500 headed into the first win, and were at .500 following the second. During this stretch, the Twins swept two series against the Orioles. Now, you might quibble at this, pointing out their underperformance thus far in 2025. Sure. I’ll give you that. But, they were widely expected to make the playoffs headed into the season, and they are loaded with talent. Then, the Twins also swept a series against the Giants, who were 24-14 headed into their series against the Twins. Finally, they won the first two games against the Brewers. While not world-beaters, they are a roughly .500 team who has underperformed to expectations.

During this stretch, through Friday, the Twins had collectively put up a .745 OPS, good for 7th in the American League. That’s probably about right, given the uneven nature of the hitting group, even during a hot streak. In contrast to the streak of a year ago, the hitters have scored 5.08 runs per game. While this is a high total compared to the season as a whole, it’s not outrageous, and it doesn’t suggest a large regression is in the works.

The pitching through? So, so good. As a staff, they have allowed just a 2.23 ERA (best in baseball) with a slightly worse but still great 2.76 FIP (also best in baseball). They have allowed the second-fewest walks in baseball, trailing just the Royals. They have allowed a WHIP of just 0.98, again, second best in baseball. Chris Paddack threw 14 ⅓ innings while allowing just one run!

Conclusions
So. We know that the 2025 version of the Twins has faced better competition, has pitched significantly better, but has hit worse (but in a more sustainable way). This improved play, then, just might be sustainable. Obviously they won’t win every game. Luck will go against them. They probably won’t continue to be the literal best team in baseball for too much longer.

You know what though? This version of the Twins more closely resembles the one baseball analysts were predicting prior to the season than what we saw for the first month of the season – elite pitching and middle of the pack hitting. And, theoretically, replacing Simeon Woods Richardson with Zebby Matthews should make the pitching staff even better.

Let’s not forget: it’s just a matter of time before Matt Wallner and Luke Keaschall are ready to return from the IL, Royce Lewis will probably find his swing again, and then the hitting could even take a step forward from middle of the pack to downright good. The depth is better this season, too. Maybe this streak is the start of something magical.

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[bean5302]

Much is going to depend on Buxton, Correa, Lewis and Wallner, I think. The pitching regression is coming, just not sure how rough it's going to be, and how many runs the offense can consistently score to deal with it.

[LambchoP]

I think a lot will depend on how soon we can get our starters healthy and back on the field again. Missing 5 starting position players makes it hard to produce enough runs to continue to win. It's been incredible that we've been finding ways to keep winning with a lineup like this:)

[Craig Arko]

Don’t know. Ask again in September. 

[Parfigliano]

34 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I think a lot will depend on how soon we can get our starters healthy and back on the field again. Missing 5 starting position players makes it hard to produce enough runs to continue to win. It's been incredible that we've been finding ways to keep winning with a lineup like this:)

It's a miracle

[tony&rodney]

The pitching is better with mol the same cast of arms. The minor league pitching depth could also help. Baseball always starts with pitching. 

Bader was a solid signing as a defensive replacement outfielder. He has produced thus far with the bat which is a bonus. Lee and Clemens are better, but not exactly stellar, at second base than what was available last season. The jury is out on Lewis at third base but he has looked better so far. Can he hit? France has been pretty decent and a surprise over Miranda. The key to the team hasn't really changed too much though for the position side. Correa and Buxton will need to be on the field and play well if the Twins are to sustain a run.

A few weeks ago when the Twins were in the dumps, I couldn't get too concerned because the team still looked like the 83-85 win squad that entered Spring Training. 88-90 wins was always a ceiling using the cast that began the season. I expected a .500 record by early June, which one person thought was way too optimistic. The underlying problem of defense and team speed has been slightly improved with all of Miranda, Julien, and Gasper playing in St. Paul. I'm not sure either Fitzgerald or McCusker are ready to play significant roles for the Twins but they both are more athletic and promising in the field and on the bases. Larnach has been swinging a reasonable bat but he needs to be the DH more often than in the field. The Twins may still get some contributions from Castro and Wallner too.

The Twins will need strong pitching, better defense, some improvement in running the bases, and the leadership of Buxton and Correa if they hope to catch Detroit. It can happen. The season hasn't even reached the 3 summer months so we should remain patient and hopeful. There is plenty of baseball to play. 

[ziggy]

This season is certainly a rewrite.

In my 60 plus years of watching and playing baseball I have never, ever seen two games in a row that were exactly the same. No way is two seasone in a row going to be the same.

But this is a nice streak and it has provided a shot of adrenaline for us fans.

It's been great not watching the little league bloopers that accompanied the earlier Twins games this season. Defense is the rudder that steers the ship, it should be consistent. Pitching and hitting is streaky and lately Twins hitting has been getting contributions from non expected players.

[old nurse]

Zebby pitched to a higher FIP last year than SWR did this year. There is hope that he will pitch better the second stint in MLB. Likely he will. 

[Mrs. Baseball]

To me this one has a completely different vibe (probably because it didn't include 7 games against the worst team ever.) Upsides? More reliable rotation depth, which is significant (if Ryan doesn't go down in 2024 they play in October) and a much deeper pen now that Louie has accepted his role and Coulombe is the lefty choice over Okert, who was always one pitch away from falling apart, and Caleb who was the little girl with the curl. Sands is no longer a question mark and while Alacala will ALWAYS make me nervous when he's you're 8th option that's a lockdown bullpen. Rose colored glasses say 94-68.

[Muppet]

Last year this team was far worse than they looked on paper, mostly because they were able to completely wipe up against the worst teams in the league, thereby padding their record. As with many seasons, they had a problem getting completely destroyed by the better teams, barley scraping out any wins against the likes of the Yankees, Dodgers, etc.. (though they did get one or two).

We'll see if they can manage to go 500 against the elite teams this year. If the Tigers have entered that category, they'll get more chances than before to show they aren't a mirage. 

While there are more than 100 games to go, we'll see how the teams that contributed to their win streak ultimately fare but it is heartening to think that they can also annihilate teams that are a step up above the worst in the league.