DEFCON 2: Minnesota Twins In "Must-Win" Territory This Week

[Matthew Lenz]

The Minnesota Twins are 7-15 and one of the worst teams in baseball. The 52-win pace has tanked their playoff odds, pushing them all the way down to the third-worst in baseball. This week, they host the two teams who have worse odds. If there were ever “must-win” games in April, these would be the ones.

Image courtesy of © Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

To say the Twins have stumbled out of the gate wouldn't be right. It would indicate they were on their feet and walking in the first place. Instead, this team is still on their backs after the historic collapse last season, and the playoff odds at Baseball Reference are taking note of all the clubs running past them. Plummeting like a post-tariff stock market, the Twins's playoff odds are now better only than those of the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox, and they only lead their divisional foe by two games in the standings.

While it may be a bit hyperbolic to call these games “must-win”, this is about as close as it gets this early in the season. If the Twins stay on their backs against two maligned teams, any optimism that even the most “glass-half-full” fan might have will be gone. The Twins have put themselves in a position where they must win five games before they travel to Progressive Field for a four-game series against the Cleveland Guardians.

Chicago White Sox
The Twins already played three against the lowly White Sox in Chicago, and took two of them. In the upcoming series, the Twins will roll with Bailey Ober, David Festa, and Pablo López, though that last is yet to be announced, as he returns from injury. They should make easy work out of a White Sox lineup that has the lowest OPS in baseball. Across the diamond, the White Sox are starting Davis Martin, Shane Smith, and have yet to announce Wednesday’s starter, after losing Martín Pérez to elbow inflammation.

Smith, who made his major-league debut against the Twins three weeks ago, has been solid in his first four career starts. The Rule 5 selection from the Milwaukee Brewers has averaged just under six innings a start, with a 3.88 FIP and a 7.8% K-BB rate. Despite average strikeout and walk rates, the righty's pitching Run Value (RV) is currently in the 97th percentile of all qualified starters, due to the lack of production against his fastball, changeup, and slider. Many of the metrics on his Basebll Savant page indicate he’s due for regression, and the Twins must bring him back down to Earth.

Martin, whose metrics also suggest some regression ahead, has been less effective, with a 5.27 FIP and a 7.1% K-BB rate. The Twins offense has been a passive, bat-to-ball team so far this year, and these two pitchers are as pitch-to-contact as it gets in 2025. Something has to give, and it has to be in the form of the Twins offense getting to one of the worst bullpens in baseball quickly.

Los Angeles Angels
How the Angels are 11-10 this season is anybody's guess. Their offense, rotation, and bullpen all rank in the bottom third in baseball, although they've hit the fourth-most home runs. While no starters have been announced, it's likely the Twins roll with Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, and Simeon Woods Richardson over the weekend. For what it's worth, on the latest edition of Inside Twins, Rocco Baldelli said it's unlikely they utilize a six-man rotation at this point, indicating Woods Richardson or (more likely) Festa will be optioned out when López returns on Thursday. Regardless of who takes the ball, the Angels currently have a .694 OPS, with the third-highest strikeout rate and second-lowest walk rate in baseball. Twins starters will be tasked with limiting the long ball and taming a red-hot Kyren Paris, to give their bleak offense a chance.

The Angels are likely to roll with Kyle Hendriks, Yusei Kikuchi, and José Soriano, who each have above-average strikeout rates, below-average walk rates, and FIPs that indicate they're due for some regression. Despite matchups that should theoretically favor the Twins, it's a recipe that could lead to some frustrating results if they continue to be passive at the plate.

The Twins currently find themselves in DEFCON 2 (that's the second-highest; I Googled it), but even splitting these six games would graduate them to DEFCON 1 status. While a dominant week will do little to re-establish hope for this abysmal start to the season, not taking care of business will all but put the nail in their coffin.

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[thelanges5]

BIG week at Target Field. Wonder what the attendance will look like? Twins have a chance to staunch the bleeding but the May schedule is a gauntlet. They’ve all but eliminated any margin for error they had. 
 

May series:

CLEx2, BALx2, BOS, MIL, KC, TB, SF, SEA

[mikelink45]

It will be fascinating to see if the three bottom teams can fascinate the fans enough to get them out. At least there's a chance we'll win. 

[CRF]

You can hear the crickets there tonight.

[Fatbat]

C4 and Lee should be batting in the 8/9 positions and Lee should probably get sent to AAA when Lewis gets back 

[JD-TWINS]

Agree with Fatbat, that even after a looping base hit fighting off a pitch & 2 walks on Monday, Brooks doesn’t seem to be ready for MLB pitching yet - maybe he grinds through? In the short term it seems like Keaschall & Julien at 2B and Lewis at 3B with Castro behind all 3 as needed…….Brooks back to St Paul……..Correa to at least the #7 hole until something changes.

Ober battled - not a great line-up so not overly excited.

Duran pitching “backwards”, starting hitters with breaking stuff and then having to throw fastballs to get back in the count is not the way to go…….establish 100 mph in the zone and then work off that.

[mikelink45]

We won!  But looking at their lineup it is hard to see how you could lose. Duran looked like he would lose it. That would have been a disaster.  

[DJL44]

12 hours ago, Fatbat said:

C4 and Lee should be batting in the 8/9 positions and Lee should probably get sent to AAA when Lewis gets back 

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Brooks back to St Paul…….

It's been 8 games for Brooks Lee. He's already been on base more times than Miranda was in 12 games.

[USAFChief]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It's been 8 games for Brooks Lee. He's already been on base more times than Miranda was in 12 games.

Really? You're going with that? That's your metric? 

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Really? You're going with that? That's your metric? 

Lee has more walks (5) than strikeouts (4). He's hitting the ball. He has a .143 average but his statcast page is bright red including barrel% and hard hit%. The hits will fall if he keeps this approach.

He's fielding fine at 3B. He's still slow but sending him to AAA isn't going to fix that.

If you're going to give a rookie a chance, he deserves more than 8 games to establish himself. This is especially true if he's been holding his own over those 8 games. Lucky for Lee, we won't see Lewis for a couple more weeks.

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

. Lucky for Lee, we won't see Lewis for a couple more weeks.

This is true.

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Lee has more walks (5) than strikeouts (4). He's hitting the ball. He has a .143 average but his statcast page is bright red including barrel% and hard hit%. The hits will fall if he keeps this approach.

He's fielding fine at 3B. He's still slow but sending him to AAA isn't going to fix that.

If you're going to give a rookie a chance, he deserves more than 8 games to establish himself. This is especially true if he's been holding his own over those 8 games. Lucky for Lee, we won't see Lewis for a couple more weeks.

I tend to agree but I think Lee has 2 more weeks to show he can hit MLB pitching. Statcast stats are nice and can give one hope but bottom line results are what matter. Lee went .221/.265/.320 (.585) in 185 PAs, 3 HRs, 27 SOs, 11 BBs. Ugly no matter how hard you squint. This year, you ask? .143/.308/.286 (.594) so far in 26 PAs, with 1 HR, 4 SOs, 5 BBS. A little better but let's face it, not too much better. I get playing Lee every day until Lewis comes back. If he can get that OPS up to the high 600s or higher, maybe he can stay. If not, back down he goes because it makes no sense to keep him on the Twins unless he's going to play regularly. Guys don't develop and get better sitting on the bench. 

The harder question is going to be where does Lee play? Keaschall looks pretty strong so far and if he is even 80-90% of what he's shown so far he is your every day 2B/DH.  Julien's Statcast line is also pretty good and he at least backed it up in 2023, and is better than Lee now at the plate. It's hard to see even a part time role for Lee going forward with Lewis at 3B, Correa SS, Keaschall/Julien 2B, and Castro as the UTL. Lee is going to have to force his way onto the roster and so far, that's not happening.  If we need aa second UTL, better to have someone like Bride with Lee hopefully getting better in AAA.  

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

The harder question is going to be where does Lee play? Keaschall looks pretty strong so far and if he is even 80-90% of what he's shown so far he is your every day 2B/DH.  Julien's Statcast line is also pretty good and he at least backed it up in 2023, and is better than Lee now at the plate. It's hard to see even a part time role for Lee going forward with Lewis at 3B, Correa SS, Keaschall/Julien 2B, and Castro as the UTL. Lee is going to have to force his way onto the roster and so far, that's not happening.  If we need aa second UTL, better to have someone like Bride with Lee hopefully getting better in AAA.  

I think someone else is bound to get hurt by the time Lewis returns.

Ultimately the guy Lee needs to beat out on the roster is Ty France. France has been pretty much what you would expect - OPS+ in the 90s and blah defensively. Either Lee or Lewis can move to 1B. I don't think it's too high of a bar to say Lee needs to be as good as Ty France to keep a spot in the major leagues.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think the "Ty France bar" is fair, at least doing what France's doing now. We need a 1b for next year and it could be Lewis or Lee, or even Julien.  Lee has to beat out someone now in the IF and so far he's #6 behind the 4 starters, Keaschall and Castro.

[Fatbat]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Lee has more walks (5) than strikeouts (4). He's hitting the ball. He has a .143 average but his statcast page is bright red including barrel% and hard hit%. The hits will fall if he keeps this approach.

He's fielding fine at 3B. He's still slow but sending him to AAA isn't going to fix that.

If you're going to give a rookie a chance, he deserves more than 8 games to establish himself. This is especially true if he's been holding his own over those 8 games. Lucky for Lee, we won't see Lewis for a couple more weeks.

I would prefer that Lee stays but he needs to either get luckier or better.  Other that stolen bases,  expected him to be more like Keaschall that Miranda. Lee’s defense is ok as long as his obp rises.

[DJL44]

On 4/23/2025 at 10:20 AM, DJL44 said:

Lee has more walks (5) than strikeouts (4). He's hitting the ball. He has a .143 average but his statcast page is bright red including barrel% and hard hit%. The hits will fall if he keeps this approach.

He's fielding fine at 3B. He's still slow but sending him to AAA isn't going to fix that.

If you're going to give a rookie a chance, he deserves more than 8 games to establish himself. This is especially true if he's been holding his own over those 8 games. Lucky for Lee, we won't see Lewis for a couple more weeks.

Since this comment, Lee is 7 for 15. His average is now .278.