DEFCON 2: Minnesota Twins In "Must-Win" Territory This Week

To say the Twins have stumbled out of the gate wouldn't be right. It would indicate they were on their feet and walking in the first place. Instead, this team is still on their backs after the historic collapse last season, and the playoff odds at Baseball Reference are taking note of all the clubs running past them. Plummeting like a post-tariff stock market, the Twins's playoff odds are now better only than those of the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox, and they only lead their divisional foe by two games in the standings.

While it may be a bit hyperbolic to call these games “must-win”, this is about as close as it gets this early in the season. If the Twins stay on their backs against two maligned teams, any optimism that even the most “glass-half-full” fan might have will be gone. The Twins have put themselves in a position where they must win five games before they travel to Progressive Field for a four-game series against the Cleveland Guardians.

Chicago White Sox
The Twins already played three against the lowly White Sox in Chicago, and took two of them. In the upcoming series, the Twins will roll with Bailey Ober, David Festa, and Pablo López, though that last is yet to be announced, as he returns from injury. They should make easy work out of a White Sox lineup that has the lowest OPS in baseball. Across the diamond, the White Sox are starting Davis Martin, Shane Smith, and have yet to announce Wednesday’s starter, after losing Martín Pérez to elbow inflammation.

Smith, who made his major-league debut against the Twins three weeks ago, has been solid in his first four career starts. The Rule 5 selection from the Milwaukee Brewers has averaged just under six innings a start, with a 3.88 FIP and a 7.8% K-BB rate. Despite average strikeout and walk rates, the righty's pitching Run Value (RV) is currently in the 97th percentile of all qualified starters, due to the lack of production against his fastball, changeup, and slider. Many of the metrics on his Basebll Savant page indicate he’s due for regression, and the Twins must bring him back down to Earth.

Martin, whose metrics also suggest some regression ahead, has been less effective, with a 5.27 FIP and a 7.1% K-BB rate. The Twins offense has been a passive, bat-to-ball team so far this year, and these two pitchers are as pitch-to-contact as it gets in 2025. Something has to give, and it has to be in the form of the Twins offense getting to one of the worst bullpens in baseball quickly.

Los Angeles Angels
How the Angels are 11-10 this season is anybody's guess. Their offense, rotation, and bullpen all rank in the bottom third in baseball, although they've hit the fourth-most home runs. While no starters have been announced, it's likely the Twins roll with Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, and Simeon Woods Richardson over the weekend. For what it's worth, on the latest edition of Inside Twins, Rocco Baldelli said it's unlikely they utilize a six-man rotation at this point, indicating Woods Richardson or (more likely) Festa will be optioned out when López returns on Thursday. Regardless of who takes the ball, the Angels currently have a .694 OPS, with the third-highest strikeout rate and second-lowest walk rate in baseball. Twins starters will be tasked with limiting the long ball and taming a red-hot Kyren Paris, to give their bleak offense a chance.

The Angels are likely to roll with Kyle Hendriks, Yusei Kikuchi, and José Soriano, who each have above-average strikeout rates, below-average walk rates, and FIPs that indicate they're due for some regression. Despite matchups that should theoretically favor the Twins, it's a recipe that could lead to some frustrating results if they continue to be passive at the plate.

The Twins currently find themselves in DEFCON 2 (that's the second-highest; I Googled it), but even splitting these six games would graduate them to DEFCON 1 status. While a dominant week will do little to re-establish hope for this abysmal start to the season, not taking care of business will all but put the nail in their coffin.