Ryan Jeffers Changes Everything With Two Strikes, and It Works Beautifully - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

We all get into bad situations sometimes. The surest path to happiness is to make the best of those bad spots, and the Twins' catcher is good at that.

Image courtesy of © Dave Nelson-Imagn Images

On Sunday night, Baseball Savant rolled out their latest set of new data, offering us a new kind of insight into baseball. The numbers indicate where a batter sets up in the batter's box, how they orient their body, and where they make contact with the ball. It's immensely valuable, because it lets us see how hitters move en route to the ball—not just their bats, but the players themselves. Over time, this will unfold a whole new dimension of understanding of the game.

For now, though, it's also just lots of fun. For instance: We can now visualize what I call The Lew Step—Royce Lewis's near-unique two-phase stride. It's a delicate hitting signature, but when it's right, it can be lethal, and these data help us see how unusual it really is.

But hey!, you say. This article didn't bill itself as being about Lewis. And you're right. It billed itself as being about Ryan Jeffers, because it is. Of all the early glimpses into the processes of Twins hitters from this new trove of information, it's Jeffers who stands out the most.

Whatever problems they did have at the plate in 2024, it's hard to criticize the Twins' two-strike approach. They had seven different batters who got to two strikes in at least 160 plate appearances and had an OPS at least 16% better than the league's average in those counts. That doesn't mean any of them were truly productive with two strikes, of course. It's extremely hard to do that. League-wide, batters hit .168/.244/.264 with two strikes on them in 2024. Strikeouts are a major risk, of course, but hitters also tend to be more defensive in those moments, and therefore, they generate less power. The ceiling is very low.

Jeffers, however, batted .179/.240/.350 in those seemingly desperate counts. Adjusting for parks and other factors, that was 31% better than average. How did he do it? By transforming. You hear hitters talk about spreading out in the box a bit with two strikes all the time—and fascinatingly, most of them do so, this new data shows. Most of them do it by about an inch, though. Not Jeffers.

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[Karbo]

It's a simple 2 strike swing which used to be taught to everyone. Then HR's became more sexy and most are swinging out of their shoes trying to hit a bomb.

[JD-TWINS]

IMO, Jeffers is strong enough to drive the ball if he just barrels it up. I think he should use his two strike, contact approach, all the time. He’d hit 35 doubles playing 55% of the time.

[bean5302]

Jeffers was 7% above league average at the plate last year. Glad his 2 strike approach was 31% above league average, but he certainly had a lot of experience in 2 strike counts to work on his approach.
1-0 = 174 PA
0-1 = 251 PA
0-2 = 118 PA
2-2 = 108 PA

Jeffers consistently worked from way behind in the count which is a rough place to be. 30% better than league average with 2 strikes is still way worse than league average at 2-0.

[Bodie]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

IMO, Jeffers is strong enough to drive the ball if he just barrels it up. I think he should use his two strike, contact approach, all the time. He’d hit 35 doubles playing 55% of the time.

Hmmm, sounds like Brian Harper but with some defensive chops....

Acceptable. 

[Fatbat]

On 3/24/2025 at 3:28 PM, bean5302 said:

Jeffers was 7% above league average at the plate last year. Glad his 2 strike approach was 31% above league average, but he certainly had a lot of experience in 2 strike counts to work on his approach.
1-0 = 174 PA
0-1 = 251 PA
0-2 = 118 PA
2-2 = 108 PA

Jeffers consistently worked from way behind in the count which is a rough place to be. 30% better than league average with 2 strikes is still way worse than league average at 2-0.

Did you miss the 1-2 PA count? And I wonder how many 1-1 or 2-1 counts became 1-2/2-2.  Also throw in 3-2 🤪

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Did you miss the 1-2 PA count? And I wonder how many 1-1 or 2-1 counts became 1-2/2-2.  Also throw in 3-2 🤪

I gave samples that were relevant. Mixing in the other counts just makes the waters muddy because you have no idea how Jeffers got there.

[jaydanger37]

Great deep dive into the data, Mathew! Stuff like this is the reason I became a caretaker. 

[Schmoeman5]

Pass the kool-aid please.