On Eiberson Castellano and the Role No One Player Can Fill

[USAFChief]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'm saying I believe @USAFChief is wrong, and so are you. 

It's the same argument as saying Christian Vazquez is not a catcher because he will be used as a DH 

1. I'm not wrong.  There is no such thing as a low leverage reliever in today's baseball. You prattle on about Jay Jackson while showing he blew 2 games by early May last year. Thanks for proving my point. 

Every reliever on the roster for more than a series or two will be in close games, multiple times. Every. Reliever. 

You can call Castellano a mop up guy, that won't make him one. He'll pitch with the game on the line of he stays on the team. If that's the plan, he shouldn't be on the team.

2. I have no idea who said Vazquez isn't a catcher. I doubt anyone did. But if they did, what the heck does that have to do with ANYTHING. 

As for the OP, Here's a prediction: the Twins will try to keep Castellano, but the plan will crumble before game 30, because its unworkable.. Let's just hope he doesn't cost them more than a game or two before that happens.

 

[Wizard11]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Was there a recent pitcher on a competitive team that filled a low leverage/long relief role while staying on the major league roster all year?

I realize that this can break down into a painful back and forth about low leverage and long relief. I will do my best not to add to that pain by accepting your comp, I am truly interested in a comp of what we envision for Castellano.

Point me to a pitcher with the following characteristics. 

• 25 or younger
• no options
• remained on roster all year

Let’s do this in reverse. Let’s find a pitcher that fits those characteristics. I am curious about his role and how effective he needed to be to remain on the roster all year.

You have heard of Johan Santana no?

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, USAFChief said:

As for the OP, Here's a prediction: the Twins will try to keep Castellano, but the plan will crumble before game 30, because its unworkable.. Let's just hope he doesn't cost them more than a game or two before that happens.

Due to injuries the alternative to Castellano making the roster is Scott Blewett making the roster. I don't think that is much better.

[LambchoP]

I think Saturday will be a really important outing for him as he's getting the start. If he blows up, he might be gone. If he does real well, which I'm hoping he does, we may have to find a way to keep him. A trade would be the best outcome as long as they don't try to rob us.

[Cris E]

I think @USAFChief is playing semantic games and every roster has guys on it that you'd rather not be tossing important innings. You play the cards in your hand at the moment and go from there, and Castellano looks like someone who can hang around the back of the pen and not embarrass the team when his name is called.

Example of how little these guys need to work to own a spot: Cole Sands in 2023. That's a year the Twins were competing and a guy they like, a guy who was effective, but he only appeared once a week and only his last two games were closer than three runs.

3/31-4/14 two appearances
5/13-6/4 five appearances
7/5-7/28  three appearances, 12 BF
8/12-9/4  five appearances (but only 2 batters in the first ten days)

There was a DL trip in June and a couple rotations to get a fresh arm up, so he only missed six weeks he could have been pitching.  More to the point he had one bad game coming back from injury where he gave up 6 of his 9 ER for the year, but the balance was quite good and he still only got out there once a week. All told he threw 21 innings of 3.74 ERA in 15 appearances, and only two were tight games that occurred after he'd proven his ability.

There are ways to shield young pitchers from important innings, even in competitive years, and Castellano could be managed similarly regardless of what he's called.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Due to injuries the alternative to Castellano making the roster is Scott Blewett making the roster. I don't think that is much better.

I believe i said Castellano will make the roster. 

If he's an effective reliever, I hope he stays.

If he's not ready to be an effective MLB pitcher, I dont think it's practical for a team trying to contend to hide him in the pen for an entire season. 

I predict he won't be an effective MLB pitcher. I admit that's a perspective from 2000 miles away.

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

1. I'm not wrong...

 

You don't even have a leg to stand on. Christian Vazquez clearly is not a catcher by your definition of having no low leverage relievers. Vazquez DH'd in 3 games. 

[USAFChief]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

You don't even have a leg to stand on. Christian Vazquez clearly is not a catcher by your definition of having no low leverage relievers. Vazquez DH'd in 3 games. 

I don't even know what point you're attempting to make.

Nor have I said anything about Vazquez not being a catcher.

I DO know that every reliever in the pen for more than a series WILL pitch important innings with games in doubt. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

51 minutes ago, Cris E said:

I think @USAFChief is playing semantic games and every roster has guys on it that you'd rather not be tossing important innings. You play the cards in your hand at the moment and go from there, and Castellano looks like someone who can hang around the back of the pen and not embarrass the team when his name is called.

Example of how little these guys need to work to own a spot: Cole Sands in 2023. That's a year the Twins were competing and a guy they like, a guy who was effective, but he only appeared once a week and only his last two games were closer than three runs.

3/31-4/14 two appearances
5/13-6/4 five appearances
7/5-7/28  three appearances, 12 BF
8/12-9/4  five appearances (but only 2 batters in the first ten days)

There was a DL trip in June and a couple rotations to get a fresh arm up, so he only missed six weeks he could have been pitching.  More to the point he had one bad game coming back from injury where he gave up 6 of his 9 ER for the year, but the balance was quite good and he still only got out there once a week. All told he threw 21 innings of 3.74 ERA in 15 appearances, and only two were tight games that occurred after he'd proven his ability.

There are ways to shield young pitchers from important innings, even in competitive years, and Castellano could be managed similarly regardless of what he's called.

I'm sure that Chief understands that there will always be a pecking order in the bullpen and whoever is at the bottom of the pecking order will be used less when possible. Cole Sands was probably at the bottom of that pecking order.

However,  

In 2023... Cole Sands could be sent down. Even when he was up with the big club. He didn't just pitch in 6-0 mop ups. If Cole had bumps in the road. He will be sent down... the club doesn't have to keep absorbing the bumps.  

In 2025... Castellano can't be sent down. If he has bumps in the road... the club will have to absorb them.  

I agree with Chief... Any thought that we can just shelter him for a year in the bullpen to keep his talented arm will be near impossible. Any consideration that we can just absorb the bumps if there are bumps isn't ideal roster construction for a team that is claiming to be contending.

Teams are using at least 3 bullpen arms a game almost every game. He will be brought to the mound in games still yet to be decided due to the unavailability of other bullpen options. 

With that said... I personally hope he makes the roster and pitches at least OK. I like the idea of young talent being prepped for major league work. But, I want the team prepared to cut bait if he is less than OK because he can't be sent down without arrangement with the Phillies.   

 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I don't even know what point you're attempting to make.

Nor have I said anything about Vazquez not being a catcher.

Your points:
You: Low leverage Relievers don't exist because players might be used in ways which are not ideal.
Me: Christian Vazquez was used in a way which was not ideal. He's still a catcher. All MLB players will be used in roles/situations where a team would rather not use them. It doesn't change the role the player is expected to play.

You: Games are going to be won or lost because a sub-par reliever who is not suited to pitching high leverage scenarios is on the mound.
Me: I literally just made the Jay Jackson example in a different post. This is how Jay Jackson started his year last year.

3/31 vs. KCR - Entered game bottom of the 8th, Score 11-0, chance of the Twins win 100.0%
4/2 vs. MIL - Entered game bottom of the 7th, score 3-2, chance of the Twins win 79.1%
4/6 vs. CLE - Entered game top of the 9th, score 1-3, chance of the Guardians win 92.9%
4/8 vs. LAD - Entered game top of the 7th, score 2-2, chance of the Twins win 50.0%*
4/12 vs. DET - Entered game bottom of the 8th, score 7-0, chance of Twins win 99.9%
4/13 vs. DET - Entered game bottom of the 12th, score 4-11, chance of Tigers win 99.7%
4/16 vs. BAL - Entered game bottom of the 7th, score 9-2, chance of Twins win 99.7%
4/21 vs. DET - Entered game top of the 7th, score 0-4, chance of Tigers win 94.6%
4/23 vs. CHW - Entered game runners on top of the 8th, score 2-3, chance of White Sox win 81.6%**
4/27 vs. CAL - Entered game bottom of the 8th, score 5-14, chance of Angels winning 99.9%
4/30 vs. CHW - Entered game bottom of the 7th, score 4-3, chance of Twins winning 79.2%
5/5 vs. BOS - Entered game runners on top of 8th, score 1-7, chance of Red Sox winning 99.3%
*Jay Jackson took the loss.
**Jay Jackson earned the win.
Everything else, Jay Jackson had no impact, and honestly had little to no chance of making an impact.

Jackson was used in 1 high leverage scenario for his first month and a half on the team which was an appearance vs. the meat of the Dodgers lineup in a tie game in the 6th inning. What are the chances any reliever gets out of that safely?
 

Quote

I DO know that every reliever in the pen for more than a series WILL pitch important innings with games in doubt.

His next 4 appearances over 2 weeks and 3 series' didn't have a single game which wasn't already totally decided before he entered. You're factually proven wrong here. This is a specific example from the Twins last year.

Over his first month and a half on the team, Jackson entered only 3 additional appearances where the game wasn't already over, but there still wasn't even a 25% chance of a game outcome change statistically. Jackson got the "win" in one of them. Jay Jackson being on the mound vs. an elite reliever likely made no difference for over a month.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree with Chief... Any thought that we can just shelter him for a year in the bullpen to keep his talented arm will be near impossible.

If they have to shelter him for the whole season, then he's probably not worth keeping. He should improve as the year goes on.

[Riverbrian]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If they have to shelter him for the whole season, then he's probably not worth keeping. He should improve as the year goes on.

Agreed

Improvement as the year goes along is also my hope.

In my mind he doesn't even have to be really good. I'd be happy with decent or average.

Just plain struggles. I won't have much tolerance for.

I'm curious to see what happens. 

[stringer bell]

I brought up the example of Cole Sands (2023) in another thread. Several factors came into play in Sands' case that may or may not play out in 2025. 1) The starting staff was toward the top of the league in innings. 2) The heart of the bullpen was healthy and available a great majority of the time. 3) Both the IL and Sands' option were used. 

If Sands didn't have an option, he might have had to perform in another game or two that had medium or high leverage, it is pretty tough to reconstruct the season with different constraints. The reality is that Sands was on the active list for most of the season and was almost always used in low leverage. I think it can be done, but situations have to play out according to plan and that is pretty rare.

Also of note, it appears that almost all of the Rule V picks are being returned. I don't think it's a defeat if Castellano is returned. It's a gamble that didn't pay off.

[Cris E]

43 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I DO know that every reliever in the pen for more than a series WILL pitch important innings with games in doubt. 

 

 

A series?  I do not agree with this at all, it's a huge overreach. Bullpens can be managed to shield some guys from being exposed most of the time. 

[jorgenswest]

15 hours ago, Wizard11 said:

You have heard of Johan Santana no?

I have. You are the only one to have offered a comp. He wasn’t effective and kept all year. Thank you.

[jorgenswest]

19 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Garrett Whitlock with the 2021 Red Sox.

 

Thanks. He was really effective that year.

[darin617]

On 3/19/2025 at 8:29 AM, IndianaTwin said:

Exactly. Keep him. Use him in the lowest leverage situations at the beginning of the year. By the time you run into a couple of these scenarios, you well may have reached the point where a) he's been good enough to move a notch or two up the ladder or b) he's demonstrated under a truer test that he's not worth stashing for the whole year. It's not like the decision can only be made before March 26 or after October 1.

(And to anticipate a comment that's likely to come, I agree that you can't have a "low-leverage reliever." But there are always low-leverage situations that need to be covered by someone and it's logical to use the lowEST-leverage reliever there.)

Unless your starters can go 6-7 innings nearly every game you would end up burning out your bullpen arms to keep a promising player. This is something a team like the White Sox can do, not the Twins.

If the Twins truly like him try to work out a trade for him.

[darin617]

On 3/19/2025 at 10:47 AM, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agree with others who say let him be the mop up guy and if he improves all is well.  If not make the decision to DFA him when the time comes.

He wouldn't be DFA. He will be returned to Philadelphia.

[stringer bell]

14 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Below text is copied directly out of this article which is why I made my assessment.

"Castellano is a talented pitcher. He won the Phillies' Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors in 2024, before being selected by the Twins with the ninth pick in the Rule 5 draft. He must stick on the Twins' active roster, or be waived, and if he clears waivers, he has to be offered back to Philadelphia."

What that means is another club could claim Castellano and they would be subject to the Rule V procedure, where he would stay on the active roster or be offered back to his original franchise. 

[USAFChief]

The role he can't fill wont be with the Twins, apparently.