2025 Twins Prospect Previews: Billy Amick

[Jamie Cameron]

Spring Training is here! It’s time to get reacquainted with the Twins' 2024 draft class, ahead of their first full season of professional baseball in 2025. Next up, Billy Amick

Image courtesy of © Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Draft Context, Scouting and Signing
Billy Amick sat at the back end of the first round on most draft boards. Instead, he ended up falling to the second round (60th overall), where the Twins took him—despite not typically investing higher picks in prospects with contact questions. Power is the calling card in Amick’s profile, with good bat speed in a loft-oriented swing designed to generate pulled fly balls. 

There aren't a ton of other tools to write home about for Amick. A solid throwing arm is offset by a need to improve his actions at third base. A move to first base seems likely, but let’s stay open-minded about possible defensive improvement. If Amick can hit enough, the power is legit, and there will be value there. It’s a big "if". At 60th overall, however, it’s a sensible enough lottery ticket to buy, on a prospect who deviates from the Twins' usual hitting archetype.

2024 Pro Debut: Strengths and Opportunities
2024 Stats (A): 18 games (77 PA), .222/.351/.413, 3 HR, 15.6 BB%, 19.5 K%, 121 wRC+
After a slow start at Fort Myers, Amick rounded out his season with an excellent final few weeks. The power was evident from the outset; Amick’s 104-mph 90th-percentile exit velocity was well above average for the level, but a 70.1% contact rate and 18% whiff rate within the strike zone give him significant hit tool risk.

One aspect of his profile that will be worth monitoring in 2025 is his approach. There’s some chase in the profile, too, particularly against breaking pitches (35% in 2024), but Amick showed an improved ability to take a walk in his pro debut, albeit in a small sample. Amick never walked more than about 10% of the time in college, but his 15.6% mark in his pro debut would represent a raising of his floor for me, as it would offset some of the swing-and-miss. There’s lots to like about Amick’s swing, with great rotational acceleration, but he’ll have to improve either his propensity to chase or the in-zone miss, or he may just never hit enough as a pro.

Expectations for 2025
Individually, I see Amick has a fairly high-risk profile (for a college player). He’s a power-reliant corner defender with hit-tool risk. It’s still safe to say the Twins saw value in him as he slid, though. Drafting a prospect with a 1.026 OPS coming off a 23-home run college season and a national championship is an easily defensible pick. Globally, I’d cluster Amick with the other college bats (Kaelen Culpepper, Kyle DeBarge, Jaime Ferrer) who the Twins will hope move quickly and sure up the foundation of a farm system that has more impact in the upper levels of the minors.

Prospect Preview: Kaelen Culpepper
Prospect Preview: Kyle DeBarge

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[Linus]

Thanks for these articles as it’s interesting to get a more in-depth look at the prospects.  I particularly liked the more objective analysis.  Amick is a real lottery ticket in that he will end up at first or DH so he is going to need to really step it up as a hitter.  He does have power so that is your first criteria for those spots.  The Twins should move him to first right now so that if he does hit he may be able to offer competent defense at first.  Good luck to him and hope he starts mashing.

[Dman]

I didn't care for the pick.  His swing and miss especially inside the zone isn't something that is easily fixable IMO.  His ability to play 3rd seems unlikely as he is average to slightly less than average there right now and the Twins have players with better arms and likely better athleticism to put there.  I don't see him beating out true third basemen, but there is time for him to improve there. 

I will say i like his short powerful, compact swing. When he does hit something he is going to hit it hard and as noted by the OP it was nice to see better plate discipline in his pro debut.  Still this type of hitter generally takes a long time to bake in the Minors before the warts in contact rate make up for the high level of power contact when he barrels the ball.

The Twins seemed tied to Amick with one of their first round picks and were mocked to take him in the 1st round in several mocks I believe.  I can see where having him fall to them in the second round seemed just to good to pass up.  I agree with the OP these types of bats are high risk, but if he hits close to his ceiling he is a Brent Rooker type bat.  If he doesn't he is a Sabato type pick. We'll know more after we get to watch him for a year.

I am rooting for the guy as it would be great to have another powerful right handed bat on the way up.  Hopefully the warts I see are more fixable than they appear.  The Twins like to take a power bat every year and Amick is a good prospect when it comes to power potential.

[thelanges5]

I’d like to see him hit his way into the future plans at first base. 

[LambchoP]

Would be nice if he can develop into a power hitting first baseman. We need a long term solution there. Seems most of our upper level prospects are pitchers. Aside from the big 3 of Jenkins, Rodriguez and Keaschal, it'd be nice to see the Twins develop a few more impact bats.

[DocBauer]

I really didn't want him with the 1st pick, but like him at 60, even with some bust risk. He may always K too much, but good power and e en decent BB numbers make him potentially dangerous. 

It feels to me as if he can just harness in his chase rate that the contact and BB rates would both improve. Just harness in the crazy swings and he's got a chance.

You absolutely keep him at 3B for as long as possible. If he's OK there, that means he's got more value...even in a part time 3B role...for the Twins, or for another team in trade. But I'd still.be playing him at 1B about 30% of the time now. Plenty of opportunity to play and improve at 3B, but a chance to get his feet under him at 1B for a future move.

[chpettit19]

Definitely don't move him to the bottom of the defensive spectrum until you absolutely need to. Let him keep working at 3B with professional coaches and see if they can improve him there. 

Very boom or bust type prospect. Clearly has the power but if you can't make enough contact it doesn't matter. I don't mind that kind of chance with the 60th pick at all. Would've hated it in the first round, though. He likely flames out in AA or AAA, but that's true of every prospect. Taking a chance on a guy with a super high offensive ceiling is worth it after you start getting later in the 2nd round.

[twinstalker]

I'm trying to re-create your in-zone whiff rate, and I'm coming up short.  Of the 302 pitches Amick saw, only 117 were in the zone.  Whiff rate is defined as swings and misses out of total swings, so I determined Amick swung at 84 pitches (swinging strikes, balls put in play, fouls, and foul tips).  That's for sure the denominator.

Then I chose swinging strikes (13) and foul tips (1), not sure whether the latter should be included, but it's essentially a swing and miss.  That's 14/84 = 16.67% or 13/84 = less, and you have 18%, which I'm sure is not a rounding of either. 

Just wondering where you came up with 18%.  Is there a source you're using outside of the Baseball Savant I'm using?  Any help here would be greatly appreciated.  Definitely asking, not criticizing.  I may well be wrong or using different data.