Justin Morneau’s 2010 Season: The Twins’ Biggest “What If”

[Cody Christie]

What if? It’s a question that fans can ponder for decades after critical moments, seasons, and games. For the Twins, one player’s season stands out as the team’s biggest “What If” moment.

Image courtesy of © Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

 

Throughout the Minnesota Twins’ long and storied history, countless “what if” moments have occurred. What if Tony Oliva hadn’t injured his knee? What if Kirby Puckett had remained healthy beyond 1995? What if Francisco Liriano's elbow had held up in 2006? Yet, no singular moment casts a longer shadow than July 7, 2010, when Justin Morneau’s career trajectory changed forever.

Recently, MLB.com picked out some of the biggest “what if” seasons in recent history because Kyle Tucker had a tremendous start to 2024 before landing on the IL. For the article, the players on the list had to play fewer than 100 games and included names like Jacob DeGrom (2021), Troy Tulowitzki (2014), and Ivan Rodriguez (2000). Justin Morneau and his tremendous start to 2010 also make the list. 

From 2006-2009, Morneau was a cornerstone for the Twins and one of the most feared sluggers in the game. Over that span, the Canadian first baseman averaged 30 homers per season with a 132 OPS+. He collected the 2006 AL MVP award, was the runner-up two years later, earned two Silver Sluggers, and represented Minnesota in three All-Star Games. He was a symbol of consistent excellence and on a tremendous career path that could have put him among the all-time Twins greats.

But in 2010, Morneau found another gear. He posted video game-like numbers through the season’s first half: a .343/.436/.620 (1.056) slash line. His 44 extra-base hits tied for third-most in the Majors, and his advanced metrics underscored his dominance. His wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) sat at an otherworldly 183, meaning he was 83% better than the league-average hitter. His 4.7 WAR was more than he accumulated in the 2006 or 2008 seasons when he was a top-2 MVP finisher. He wasn’t just on track for a second MVP award because he was rewriting his career peak.

Then came Game 81.

In the top of the eighth inning against the Blue Jays, Morneau slid into second base, attempting to break up a double play. His helmeted head collided with the knee of Toronto infielder John McDonald, and Morneau stayed on the ground momentarily before walking off under his own power. At the time, the severity of the injury wasn’t apparent, but it was soon revealed that Morneau had suffered a concussion. That slide ended his 2010 season and, in many ways, his days as one of baseball’s elite hitters.

Without Morneau, the Twins forged ahead, clinching the AL Central title behind a deep roster and contributions from Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, Francisco Liriano, and others. But it was clear that the lineup wasn’t the same without their MVP-caliber first baseman. In the postseason, the Twins were swept by the Yankees, with their offense struggling to capitalize in key moments. It’s impossible not to wonder how a healthy Morneau might have changed that series and the Twins’ October fortunes.

The aftereffects of Morneau’s concussion lingered far beyond 2010. He returned in 2011 but was a shadow of his former self, slashing .227/.285/.333 (.618) with a career-worst -1.1 WAR in 69 games as recurring symptoms derailed his season. Though he would enjoy moments of resurgence (including winning a batting title with the Rockies in 2014), Morneau never again approached the power numbers he posted in his prime. Over his final seven seasons, he never hit more than 19 home runs in a year.

“It’s something that will always be with me," Morneau told ESPN.com's Jim Caple in the spring of 2015 while the Rockies. “I look at it like a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery -- every time he throws or his elbow gets sore or something happens, you’re going to go back to that. I just needed time to build confidence on it. The further away you get from it, the better you feel. But it’s one of those things that will never ever be out of my mind or be completely gone. That’s the reality of the situation. But you know what? I feel good today and am able to go out and compete, and that’s all I can ever ask for."

For Twins fans, the “what if” surrounding Morneau’s 2010 season is unavoidable. What if he had stayed healthy? What if he had continued his torrid pace into the second half and postseason? Could the Twins have finally exorcised their playoff demons?

It’s not just about the awards and accolades that might have been. Morneau’s injury robbed him of a chance to solidify himself as one of the great hitters of his era. For fans, it represents a pivotal turning point in a franchise that, despite its successes, has always seemed to be one step away from ultimate glory.

Morneau’s career remains one of resilience and class. His induction into the Twins Hall of Fame in 2021 was a fitting tribute to a player who gave everything to the organization. But for anyone who watched him in his prime, the memory of his 2010 season that was cut short just as it reached historic levels will always linger as the biggest “what if” in Minnesota Twins history.

Are there other “what if” moments that should rank above Morneau’s 2010 season? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

 

View full article

[arby58]

It was a remarkable season, and the middle of that lineup was fearsome. They just might have won a World Series.

I remember when it happened, and the thought process is he didn't get injured, he'll be back in a couple of days. The effects of concussions weren't nearly as well understood 'back then.' Same thing with Joe Mauer - the "M&M boys" were a joy to watch back then before the same type of injury flattened their trajectories.

[LanceJS]

How about - what if John Castino didn’t retire early due to back injuries? Him at second base with Herbie, Kirby, Bruno, G-man and the rest of that ‘87 team? Not only would that have been an upgrade over Lombardozzi but then the awful Brunansky for Tom Herr trade might never have happened. 

[jmlease1]

Huge bummer about Morneau and it is a huge what if. He was absolutely crushing the ball and was really locked in. I'm glad that it doesn't seem to eat Morneau up these days.

That 2010 team was close, and just needed a couple of things to line up better and they might have made a run at a title. Morneau not getting hurt on a fluke play. Perkins not being ready yet (next season he'd fully made the transition to the bullpen and was a real weapon), Kubel and Blackburn having fallen off the cliff from the previous year and Span playing poorly after 2 good seasons. The stars just didn't quite align for that squad, who were still very good and plenty of talent, but didn't have everyone healthy and enough guys peaking at the same time.

[Blyleven2011]

Moreau was on fire , but even with him healthy I don't think we would have won in the playoff series , remember it was the Yankees , and we just seem to not beat those guy's  ...

[Linus]

He and Mauer had similar experiences post concussion.  They returned to play but were never the same hitters.  I wouldn’t be shocked if we learn the concussed brain loses something that makes the players reflexes slightly slower or something like that.

[Finlander]

It won't top Morneau's misfortune, but I remember pitcher Jim Kaat being injured (ALSO sliding into second base!) after having a nice couple of months to start the 1972 season. I think he pitched another couple of innings afterwards and got the win, before the pain kicked in and it was found that he had a broken arm. He was 10-2 with around a 2.00 ERA or so, his best start to a season in his career. But the injury ended his season and likely contributed to what became his most ineffective season the following year, 1973. Calvin Griffith then dumped him, thinking he was done, after which he had two consecutive 20 win seasons with the White Sox in 1974 and 1975. Without the injury on July 2, Kaat was a good bet for 20+ wins in 1972 and probably doesn't have the 1973 struggles that prompted his release.

[tony&rodney]

The concussions suffered by Morneau and Mauer were both very serious. I was relieved that both were able to retire without further complications (thus far) which would have compromised their personal lives. 

Once upon a time, people were near ridiculous in their ignorance of concussions and brain injuries. I'm not sure everyone, even now, understands how serious these are for an individual. Athletes tried to play on and saw their careers end, usually on a poor note. Professional athletes were mostly paid peanuts until the 1980s and it was understandable why a person would try to continue their careers. I don't believe either of the M & M boys wanted to retire but they lived the effects of concussions and understood rational thinking made the decision inevitable.

[GNXman]

So many "What ifs?" with the Twins.... What if Carew hadn't injured his knee? Would he have won a couple more batting titles? What if Kaat hadn't injured his arm in the penultimate game against the Red Sox in 1967? Would they have won the World Series with probably their best team ever? What if Killebrew hadn't pulled his hamstring in the 1971 All-star game? Would he have stuck with the Twins longer with more production? What if Puckett hadn't gotten glaucoma and instead teamed up with Molitor as a potent 1-2 punch? Would the Twins have had a more successful mid-90's run? So many disappointments over the years. The worst for me was 1967, probably the best team the Twins ever had.

[gman]

That was a depressing read.

[bean5302]

Morneau's 2010 was potentially fueled by some luck which would have had him regressing as well. Through his prime 4 years prior, Morneau's BABIP was .297. In 2010 it was .385, though there are some underlying metrics which suggest Morneau was already turning a corner to be better at the plate.

Hi BB rate had steadily increased, maxing out at the 14.4% in 2010 as pitchers grew to fear him. He was hitting more line drives, and dramatically fewer ground balls, he was squaring up and hitting balls harder than ever so more of Morneau's fly balls were leaving the park.
Previous 4 years vs. 2010
Prev = 18.7% LD, 41.4% GB, 35.8% FB, 4.1% Pop Ups, 14.8% HR/FB, 34.1% Hard Hit
2010 = 22.0% LD, 33.1% GB, 40.7% FB, 4.2% Pop Ups, 17.0% HR/FB, 45.3% Hard Hit

He really may have hit another gear at age 29, but what's not remembered very well in the article is Morneau was still an above average MLB hitter after his rough return year at age 30 in 2011. For 2012-2016, Morneau posted a .281/.337/.446 OPS .783 wRC+ 108 line, providing a line all of us would have happily seen in the Twins' lineup last year. He just wasn't an MVP candidate anymore. Even at age 35 with the White Sox, Morneau put up a .261/.303/.429 OPS .732 wRC+ 95 line in a very short season as he didn't sign until June 9!

In 2015, Morneau dealt with a neck sprain and concussion issues, but he was also struggling with a tendon in his elbow before the end of the year. The approach to rest it over the winter didn't pan out and after another MRI he pursued on his own, Morneau went under the knife to correct the issue too late to make it back for the start of the year.

I remember being baffled Morneau didn't garner more interest in 2016. MLBTR had Morneau at the back end of their top 50 MLB free agents at 1yr $8MM, but there were apparently no suitors. Ultimately, Morneau signed with the White Sox for a pitiful 1yr and $1MM on June 9th out of what looked like desperation when Morneau was pretty much all set the play, but wasn't committed.

After the dreadful 2016 Twins' season, I had hoped the Twins could reunite with Morneau, but the Twins didn't pull the trigger despite reports of mutual interest and positive comments from then manager, Paul Molitor. Who knows if Morneau would have provided any boost to what was an incredibly successful 2017 club, a club which deployed Robbie Grossman as the primary DH, I might add. Would a reunion with Morneau have led to a 2017 World Series Title? Of course. It was guaranteed, but the "Twins fans can't have nice things!" Derek Falvey proclaimed.

[Finlander]

Kaat was the best pitcher on the planet in September 1967. That string of starts was unreal. Just a few too many innings. That team was championship bound. I still get a little riled up when I see Mike Yastrzemski's name in a box score.

Twins had a slugging CF named Jimmie Hall. He'd set an AL record for homeruns by a rookie with 33 in 1963. In late May of the following year he got hit in the face by a pitch. He was subsequently skittish at facing LH pitchers. His numbers tailed a bit - he still had 20 HRs or so and had a reasonable BA for a couple years, but his struggles against lefties saw him become a platoon player bouncing to various teams, and he was out of baseball after an 8 year career.

The team was still pretty darn strong in the mid-60s, but I always wondered if the Twins could have won another pennant back then if Hall hadn't been beaned. Killebrew, Hall, and Allison were an impressive hitting set of outfielders.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, Finlander said:

Kaat was the best pitcher on the planet in September 1967. That string of starts was unreal. Just a few too many innings. That team was championship bound. I still get a little riled up when I see Mike Yastrzemski's name in a box score.

Twins had a slugging CF named Jimmie Hall. He'd set an AL record for homeruns by a rookie with 33 in 1963. In late May of the following year he got hit in the face by a pitch. He was subsequently skittish at facing LH pitchers. His numbers tailed a bit - he still had 20 HRs or so and had a reasonable BA for a couple years, but his struggles against lefties saw him become a platoon player bouncing to various teams, and he was out of baseball after an 8 year career.

The team was still pretty darn strong in the mid-60s, but I always wondered if the Twins could have won another pennant back then if Hall hadn't been beaned. Killebrew, Hall, and Allison were an impressive hitting set of outfielders.

Kaat was the 3rd best pitcher in the Twins' rotation in 1967. That said, he did have a great September, but even so, Joe Horlan was better in Sept that year, and there were other pitchers who got better results that month, too.

[Finlander]

Hmm. Kaat won 7 consecutive starts in September of '67. I think he threw around 63 innings at a 1.57 ERA clip. He also logged a strikeout an inning, notable in that Kaat wasn't a classic strikeout artist.

I'm not sure which pitchers, Joe Horlen included, matched the full month of work that Kaat produced. Horlen had three shutouts in September, including a no-hitter, but he lost some too if I recall. Granted, he had a superior year overall. But for September alone, it was Kaat by some distance.

[jmlease1]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

After the dreadful 2016 Twins' season, I had hoped the Twins could reunite with Morneau, but the Twins didn't pull the trigger despite reports of mutual interest and positive comments from then manager, Paul Molitor. Who knows if Morneau would have provided any boost to what was an incredibly successful 2017 club, a club which deployed Robbie Grossman as the primary DH, I might add. Would a reunion with Morneau have led to a 2017 World Series Title? Of course. It was guaranteed, but the "Twins fans can't have nice things!" Derek Falvey proclaimed.

Kind of a reach to suggest that Morneau would have been the secret ingredient to better results in 2017 coming off a terrible season at age 35, especially since what we were short in 2017 was pitching. Blaming Falvey for that one in his first season as POBO seems silly. Would we really have been happy as Twins fans to have Morneau back and see him struggle mightily in a depressing final season (which is the most likely scenario)?

[bean5302]

9 hours ago, Finlander said:

Hmm. Kaat won 7 consecutive starts in September of '67. I think he threw around 63 innings at a 1.57 ERA clip. He also logged a strikeout an inning, notable in that Kaat wasn't a classic strikeout artist.

I'm not sure which pitchers, Joe Horlen included, matched the full month of work that Kaat produced. Horlen had three shutouts in September, including a no-hitter, but he lost some too if I recall. Granted, he had a superior year overall. But for September alone, it was Kaat by some distance.

Sept '67
Jim Kaat - 7-0, 1 Blown Save (Twins lost to Horlan's White Sox), 9 Games, 65.2 IP, 1.51 ERA, 1 Shutout
Joe Horlen - 6-2, 0 Blown Saves, 8 Games, 64.1 IP, 0.84 ERA, 3 Shutouts

Horlen was better than Kaat. Twins were better than White Sox despite losing back to back games to Chicago when Kaat took the mound and blew a save on the 16th, the day after Horlan beat the Twins on the 15th. 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Kind of a reach to suggest that Morneau would have been the secret ingredient to better results in 2017 coming off a terrible season at age 35, especially since what we were short in 2017 was pitching. Blaming Falvey for that one in his first season as POBO seems silly. Would we really have been happy as Twins fans to have Morneau back and see him struggle mightily in a depressing final season (which is the most likely scenario)?

You think it's a reach to 100% guarantee the Twins would have won the World Series if they had signed a 36 year old Morneau coming off back to back disappointing seasons?

A bigger reach is thinking I was serious and my comment wasn't tongue in cheek hyberbole.