Offseason Primer: The Detroit Tigers Are Here To Stay

[Matthew Lenz]

After an improbable playoff appearance that fell one game short of a trip to the American League Championship Series, the upstart Detroit Tigers enter the 2024-25 offseason in a great place to build a dynasty. With a productive, young core and money to spend, they're a genuine threat to the Twins.

Image courtesy of © Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On Aug. 5, FanGraphs had the Detroit Tigers at a 0.2% chance to make the playoffs; they were an underwhelming 53-60. From then through Sept. 27, the day they clinched the third American League Wild Card spot, the Tigers went 33-12. They finished the season with an 86-76 record.



Let’s review how the unlikely season unfolded for the Tigers, and what they’ll be up to this offseason.

2024 Season Review
The Tigers' calling card in the 2024 season was their pitching staff, headlined by a starting rotation that finished in the top 10 of teams in ERA, FIP, and K-BB% among a myriad of other categories. Their bullpen wasn’t quite as effective, but still ranked in the top half in a lot of the same categories composed of relievers who were largely deemed as less than desirable by Major League baseball. The back end of the bullpen was built with Jason Foley (2016 UDFA), Tyler Holton (waivers), Will Vest (returned Rule 5 pick), Shelby Miller (free agent), and Beau Brieske (2019 27th-round pick). That list doesn’t even include Sean Guenther, who was another waiver claim in 2022 from the Miami Marlins, or 2021 7th-round pick Brant Hurter.

In short, the Tigers got a ton of value from a position that can be quite volatile and often seen as a risky investment. Looking at the starting rotation, they got career years from young starters Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson, who were 9th- and 13th-round picks, respectively. What might be most impressive is that they sold their best starter, Jack Flaherty, ahead of the trade deadline, but rookie Keider Montero filled in nicely, with a 3.33 ERA over 10 starts in August and September.

Offensively, they were one of the youngest teams in baseball, with utility player Andy Ibáñez the only contributor north of 30 years old. 2019 1st-round pick Riley Greene led the way with an .827 OPS and 24 home runs. Matt Vierling, acquired in a trade last January, and Kerry Carpenter, a 2019 19th-round pick, were two more young contributors to an offense that finished in the bottom third in baseball in various categories. Where the youngsters lacked in hitting, they made up for in fielding, ranking 6th in Outs Above Average (23), led by center fielder Parker Meadows, their 2018 2nd-round pick.

If there is one thing to take away, it’s that the Tigers did a phenomenal job developing and identifying talent to build the 2024 version of their club. So, let’s look at where they go from here.

Looking Ahead to 2025
As would be expected from such a young team, the Tigers have a large number of pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players to make decisions on this winter. In fact, Javier Báez, Colt Keith, and Kenta Maeda are the only Tigers under guaranteed contracts for the 2025 season. In 2024, their payroll was 26th in baseball, sitting just under $100 million, which is about a 24% decrease from their average payroll for the previous two seasons.

Given their payroll flexibility and the solid core that led to a playoff run, I’d expect the Tigers to be pretty active in this offseason’s free agency period. And based on this quote from Scott Harris, the President of Baseball Operations, the Tigers will be willing to spend if the talent is there.

In the same presser, Harris identified the need to add a right-handed bat to an offense that finished with a 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, as well as add to the starting rotation and bullpen. As MLBTR points out, this free agent class fits the Tigers’ needs very well, with big names like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, and Blake Snell headlining. One thing that could impact the bottom line is if the Tigers and some of their team-controlled players can come to an agreement to buy out arbitration years.

Earlier this season, the Tigers and then top prospect Colt Keith agreed to a six-year, $28.6-million deal before he had even reached the big leagues. Any one of their pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible players could follow suit and, given the precedent set with Keith, they could even look to lock up top prospects Jackson Jobe or Jace Jung. Those are just two names from a farm system that is ranked in the top 10 in baseball by multiple sources, although many of their other top names aren’t projected to contribute for another couple of years. Obviously, securing more years of Skubal's services would be wonderful, but he's about to win the AL Cy Young Award. Such an extension would be very expensive.

It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from next year’s Detroit Tigers. Will they be the team that was seven games under .500 for the first four months of the season, or are they the team from the last two months--the one that finished with the second-most wins in baseball over that span? The answer is likely somewhere in between, and if I’m a Tigers fan, I am cautiously optimistic about 2025, while keeping in mind that player development is rarely linear. That said, supplementing the young core with productive veterans would go a long way in helping that development continue to improve. One way or another, the Twins can no longer hone in on the Guardians as their lone competition for the division. The Tigers (and Royals) are here to stay.

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[LambchoP]

The AL Central is no longer a joke. Twins need to get real and decide to try and actually win or start getting used to missing the playoffs. 

[thelanges5]

Young players can be a fickle thing. We had a great group in 23 that we were all excited about and look what happened to most of them in 2024.

[DJL44]

Young players will be volatile as inevitable adjustments happen but the Tigers seem to have the depth to be able to overcome those adjustments.

[Rufus]

The only team in the division with a higher payroll than the the Twins in 24 was the White Sox.  It isn't how much money you spend it is how you spend your money.  Scouting and player development  is more vital to an organization than going out throwing big bucks at aging free agents for small and mid market teams .  With declining revenues, mid market teams cannot keep up with the big boys.   Revenue sharing and the salary cap sure has made the NFL a more interesting league.   I for one prefer local ownership like the Pohlads.  Call them cheap if you want, but other mid market teams are cutting payroll this year too.  The writing is on the wall.  Revenue is declining.  Costs have to be cut somewhere.    I do not want to see the sport taken over by out of state  hedge fund owners and multi billionaires.  Who only use the team as an ego boost,  that dump the team when they get tired of their toy and leave a team piled in debt and huge contracts.  Players also have to face the fact that $300-500 million   contracts are a joke,  They are going to kill the sport.   

[TopGunn#22]

The Tigers, like the Royals are for real.  Their futures depend on how the Tigers ensure that Tarik Skubal remains as the Ace of their rotation and how long the Royals can hang on to Bobby Witt Jr.  The big market teams will certainly be sniffing around trying to pry these guys away.  

Bobby Witt is a bona fide Superstar.  he's destined to win an MVP.  Tarik Skubal will probably win the 2024 A.L. CY Young Award and he looks good enough to win a couple more.

Both the Royals and the Tigers have other emerging talent and in the case of the Royals, a solid vet in All Star Salvador Perez.  But Witt Jr. and Skubal are the centerpieces of future.  

The Guardians have a Superstar in Jose Ramirez and an All World closer in Emmanuel Clase.  And they always have solid rotations and good bullpens.  They have a pitching pipeline that is the envy of baseball. 

Were the Pohlad's arrogant enough to think they could just cut $30 million in payroll and cruise to a Division Championship?  Or did they just not care if the Twins successfully defended their 2023 Division Championship?  Neither answer is acceptable.  

At some point, we will have new Twins ownership.  How will that affect the budget for 2025?  As someone else mentioned, budgets are not laws that need to be legislatively repealed.  They are a guideline of what a business is planning for the coming year.  But for those of us who have had to plan a budget for a business, we all realize that it's written in paper with a pencil with an eraser at the ready.  

[Brett]

Surprised you didn’t mention Spencer Torkelson. Until I looked up his stats…what happened to him? I thought he was “can’t miss” as a prospect.

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Rufus said:

Players also have to face the fact that $300-500 million   contracts are a joke,  They are going to kill the sport.   

The best players in the sport getting compensated appropriately is not going to kill the sport. Soto is going to get over $500 million this offseason, and he's more than earned it. Good on him.

Let's not shame an employee for getting compensated fairly while crying about how it might hurt the billionaire employer. 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Rufus said:

The only team in the division with a higher payroll than the the Twins in 24 was the White Sox.  It isn't how much money you spend it is how you spend your money.  Scouting and player development  is more vital to an organization than going out throwing big bucks at aging free agents for small and mid market teams .  With declining revenues, mid market teams cannot keep up with the big boys.   Revenue sharing and the salary cap sure has made the NFL a more interesting league.   I for one prefer local ownership like the Pohlads.  Call them cheap if you want, but other mid market teams are cutting payroll this year too.  The writing is on the wall.  Revenue is declining.  Costs have to be cut somewhere.    I do not want to see the sport taken over by out of state  hedge fund owners and multi billionaires.  Who only use the team as an ego boost,  that dump the team when they get tired of their toy and leave a team piled in debt and huge contracts.  Players also have to face the fact that $300-500 million   contracts are a joke,  They are going to kill the sport.   

I agree with everything you said but I'm ready to move on from the Pohlads.

[Doctor Gast]

CLE, DET & KC were impressive. All 3 advanced to the semi-finals. CLE bye, DET swept BAL & KC beat many's favorite HOU. KC was the one who I cheered the most for. Going 1-1 at NYY, going home where they do what they do to win whatever that was but didn't do against the Evil Empire.

IMO the Twins had a better core coming off play-off success but FO let us down by not trading adequately for necessary needs & making us worse. Now CLE, DET & KC are coming off better play-off success & riding high. CLE is a better ran team. DET is a better-managed team & KC has gotten lucky with the few FAs they got. CLE will get their injured rotation back, DET & KC will try to get better & we got Falvey, Baldelli, Tingler, Conger & Watkins

[Schmoeman5]

At what point was Flaherty the Tigers "best starter"?

[Rufus]

5 hours ago, Brett said:

Surprised you didn’t mention Spencer Torkelson. Until I looked up his stats…what happened to him? I thought he was “can’t miss” as a prospect.

 

The Royals locked  Whitt up last winter.  I believe for 10 years.    Torkelson  so far is pretty much proving to be a bust.  But who knows he's still young.

[bean5302]

I think the Tigers and Royals will likely finish 1-2 in the AL Central next year barring some dramatic roster decisions by the Twins. Both Detroit and Kansas City have elite arms at the front of their rotation, not just a #2/3 starter masquerading as elite with a random advanced metric or two backing them up.

C - Jake Rogers
1B - Spencer Torkelson
2B - Colt Keith
3B - Matt Vierling
SS - ?
LF - Riley Greene
CF - Parker Meadows
RF - Kerry Carpenter
DH - ?
BC - Dillon Dingler
UI - Jace Jung
UI - Javier Baez
UO - Wenceel Perez

SP1 - Tarik Skubal
SP2 - Brant Hurter
SP3 - Reese Olson
SP4 - ?
SP5 - Casey Mize

The Tigers' bullpen is too much of a mess to break out. I'd suspect Detroit will be in the running for a a couple good RP's this offseason to lead the bullpen since they have plenty of solid depth.