Why Twins Made Right Call By Bringing Back Rocco Baldelli for 2025

[BH67]

Had I read this on October 4, 2022, Matthew, I'd likely agree.

[Doc Lenz]

Who knew Terry Francona was available? 

 

 

 

[terrydactyls]

7 hours ago, #3Killer said:

Let’s hope he learns from this years debacle. His lineup “manipulations are motivation destroyers. He needs to combine his statistical approach with a feel for the game and let his players play when they get on a roll. 

In addition to playing lineup merry-go-round, the other big issue I have is scheduled days off to keep players fresh.  With all the complaints lately attributed to players about how worn out they are, I would have to assume that scheduled days off isn't working.  So I did a little digging into the numbers,  145 players played 130 or more games in 2024.  Only 2 were Twins (Castro and Santana).  Another 7 Twins were in the group of 129 players who played between 100 and 129 games (Margot - 129, Jeffers - 122, Miranda - 121, Larnach - 112, Farmer - 107 {but only 215 AB}, Kepler - 105, and Buxton - 102.  The 66 players that played over 150 games averaged .258 BA, .331 OBP, .440 Slug and .773 OPS.  It sure seems like playing nearly every day didn't hurt their performance.  Among those who played 158 games or more were Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Bobby Witt, Elly De La Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero, Shohei Ohtani Corbin Carroll, and Aaron Judge.  This group averaged 29 HR, 93 RBI, .269 AVG, .346 OPS, .484 SLUG, and .831 OPS.  No scheduled days off didn't seem to impact their performance - especially in the last few weeks of the season.  Set a lineup and let them play until they tell you they need a day off.

[BillyBallLives]

7 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Expect more of the same next year ..I'm done spending money on the twins , ( twinfest , spring training ,  target field games  and apparel ) ...

Ditto here!!!  It's the only message ownership will respond to.....I'll only go to a game if the tickets are free...with free parking. 

[Emjay]

Rocco was "blessed" with a good farm system and a lot of talent already on the roster when he first arrived. Not much to take credit for when the players set HR records (2019) There are things the manager can control and those he can't. The things he can control, he seems to mismanage a lot. The most glaring defects is how he runs the bullpen, the questioable line ups, and his chaotic batting orders. The lefty/righty hitting obsession and his inability to bend on his often questionable analytics. Keeping a relief pitcher in a game when they have just given up mutiple runs to tie and go ahead; bases loaded and no outs. We have all seen this scenario play out with Alcala, Thielbar, etc.                                                     He assumed that lefty hitters that were not named Kepler  could not hit lefty pitching and instead would put in a righty sub par hitter and fielder who striked out anyway. He learned that Wallner could also hit lefties, but it was when he had no choice but to play him...it goes on and on. Having been to about 40 games this past season and due to having Fubo, I watched most of the games and saw this play out so many time. Analyitics has a place, but if a guy is hitting well and/or is a good defender, keep him in the lineup everyday; sometimes, the most simple answer is the best.

[Western SD Fan]

I had to take a little time off from commenting on this site not because of the fans but because the team left such a bitter taste that I just needed to decompress from the season for a few days.  I've caught up with all of the articles and comments.  With that being said, lets bomb this thread with everyone's favorite: Lies, damn lies, and statistics! Since we love analytics (insert sarcasm here), lets analyze Rocco's performance.

Year	Record	Payroll (Rank)*	Avg. Age (Rank)*	PH AB's (Rank)**	Platoon % (Rank)**	Salary on IL (Rank)*	Days on IL*
2019	101-61	125.2 (19)	27.3 (18)	66 (25)	59.7% (6)	28th	629
2020	36-24	59.7 (19)	29.5 (1)	28 (20)	62.1% (4)	8th	389
2021	73-89	121.4 (17)	28.5 (12)	97 (17)	55.5% (11)	20th	1,713
2022	78-84	150.4 (17)	27.0 (27)	104 (7)	52.9% (18)	12th	2,363
2023	87-75	156.1 (15)	28.8 (7)	162 (3)	56.3% (9)	13th	1,980
2024	82-80	131.0 (19)	28.5 (11)	134 (1)	62.5% (4)	11th	1,641

* taken from Sportrac      **taken from Baseball Reference      Note: Payroll rounded and in millions

Comments from looking at this table.  I attempt to analyze the number of roster permutations by the platoon %.  I couldn't find a site to better rank the days on the IL so I had to settle for Salary on IL (supposing that the better players are getting paid more and that affects the on-field performance, obviously results may vary).

I was surprised that 2019 was not an older team because I believed the narrative that Rocco didn't have to do much to manage this team. This team was by far the healthiest team we have had.  Additionally, Derek Shelton and Mike Bell were probably better bench coaches than Jayce Tingler.  Sadly enough, I believe this year with the juiced balls and the three true outcome approach doomed us into believing this was the future of baseball.  When MLB adjusted rules for pitch clocks, three batter minimum, and larger bases to encourage stolen bases, we didn't adjust.  As noted in different interviews with Lewis, Miranda, Lee, and Larnach, they tried to tweak their swings in the minors to encourage home runs and launch angle over average, hits, productive outs, or other fundamentals such as base running and bunting.

Payroll has been a huge issue on here where ownership has cut the legs out of the FO from making the moves we needed to build a better team that could withstand the injury bug that seems to have plagued the Twins since 2021. 2023 looks like the outlier in spending and they seem to like to be somewhere between 17th - 19th.  While ownership needs a share of the blame for not giving the FO the funds to build a better team, it also looks like the FO has not done a good job shopping in the scratch and dent section.

Rocco seems like he really likes having the platoon advantage at any cost given his ranks in platoon % and PH AB's.  We have seen this in the last couple of years where the opposing team would have an opener, and we completely upend our lineup when the bulk guy would come in. When we needed that pinch hitter late in the game, he wasn't there because he was already subbed out.  Again, I was surprised that we were older than average the last two years given the number of rookies that we have had to depend on to get through the year.  That probably says more about the age of our rookies when they join the team than the number of appearances rookies had to make.

2019 is looking more and more like an outlier.  This could be due to better coaching (James Rowson, Wes Johnson, Derek Shelton), Nelson Cruz as a "player-coach", just being healthy: a common quote is the best ability is availability, no need to pinch hit as we had built massive leads, and finally outside forces liked juiced balls and rule changes to encourage pace of play and not just the three true outcomes.  We all have been taught the age-old lesson of not putting all of your eggs in one basket.  It seems that Rocco and Falvey have put too many eggs in the analytics baskets and cannot adjust to the changing landscape of timely hitting and stolen bases.

And, as other posters have noted, did we know that Francona was available?!?  If not, then Falvey should be fired. If we did, then Falvey should be fired for not taking a chance to upgrade managers!!!  Just think if Tito could have convinced Carl Willis to come over from Cleveland and work with our pitching staff.

Edited October 4, 2024 by Western SD Fan
Hit submit before I finished the post.

[Marcos]

Who is this Matt Taylor? I’m sorry sir but you seem to be either paid off or completely clueless. Did you actually watch any of the games? Seriously… soooooo many bad coaching decisions. FALVEY SHOULD FIRE HIMSELF BECAUSE OWNERSHIP ARE ******* and baldy should be managing his kids (or someone’s kids) little league team. Sorry, just sick of the Pohlads and stunning incompetence.

[Markdumont25]

17 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I think the impact of the manager on W-L is frequently overrated, sometimes massively overrated by fans, so I'm not that spun up about whether Rocco comes back or not. Overall, I think he's been average to good as a manager and seems to have done well at managing the clubhouse and personalities. Tactically, I think he's been generally fine; there are some things to quibble with: bullpen management (i.e, I thought they handled Alcala poorly this season), pinch hitting (not just Margot, but the practice of pulling the LH hitter early enough in the game that the pinch hitter was going to get another AB against the platoon side later in the game. Over-relied on the "try to jump on the big inning early" move), and failure to engage more in the running game despite having more players this season with the skills to utilize it.

but Rocco hasn't been bad, even with the collapse. he ran out of levers to pull with injuries and ineffectiveness; at the end of the day players have to play. It's not like he was a clown like Grifol in Chicago who never had a plan and very quickly lost the team.

If they'd moved on from him, I wouldn't have been too upset; Rocco's got plenty of money and will do just fine. He's very likely to get another MLB job if he wants it. And if the team underperforms next season, he'll be gone. If they bounce back and win the division, then he's going to contend for manager of the year.

The manager is a good target for fans and occasionally players, but we frequently overrate their impact when they're not obviously in over their heads (i.e., Grifol) or some of the few truly superior managers (i.e., Francona). 3/4 are in a mushy middle class where any of them can win Manager of the Year if their players kick butt and any of them can get fired if injuries and underperformance strike.

Too reasonable a take for Twins Daily to handle!

This is generally how I feel but I leaned slightly towards letting him go simply because of all the errors in the fundamentals (baserunning and defense mainly) that we saw over the course of the collapse. We had a young, largely untested team but too many games were lost down the stretch on what should be considered inexcusable mistakes for a professional team with playoff aspirations playing in the best league in the world.

Given that we seem to both believe he is otherwise an average (ish) manager, I think not having his team prepared enough to avoid the mental lapses on the basics down the stretch should have pushed us towards giving someone else a chance. My opinion. 

What really sunk us this year was the pohlads cheapness. Nobody can convince me that an extra $20M in payroll spent on a few arms wouldn't have made the difference between the playoffs and the bitter disappointment we were left with. But since you can't fire ownership then I think Rocco would have been a reasonable enough alternative.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Everyone thinks of their opinions as in the majority. 2020 was the highest turnout for a presidential election in a century and 66.3% of Americans voted. Majority ruled that election, less than 34% of Americans were the “Majority”.

and so we have a “public opinion survey” where the stakes a zero…

Much like those 33.7% of Americans who don’t care or don’t think their vote will matter in the electoral college… I’ll abstain

Join me in manager apathy, it’s easier here

[Johnny Ringo]

Rocco flatly had a horrible year.  I can't tell you how many times I would chirp at the television over inexplicable moves, even when they seem to be dedicated by math and I questioned the math. Example: pitch hitting early in the game to take advantage of "handedness" which is one input into a multi-variable consideration.  That advantage often disappears with that at-bat and you are left with the rest of the game. 

Other times, math seemed to be his master without absolutely no feel for the game. 80 pitches, 1 hit and a taxed pen? Here comes Rocco. As a game strategist, he was a disaster. 

But, worse yet, I think he lost the locker room. Calling the players publicly "unprofessional" after blowing a couple of games with bad decisions?  Really? Do we really think Correa, the bright, mature, reputation-obsessed veteran he is, would have lambasted Lewis if he thought Rocco was handling business?  I certainly don't.

Rocco was kept, I would guess because Falvey has control over him. Do you really think Terry Francona cares what Falvey thinks? Chuckle along with me.

And then there is the money. Everything ownership does comes down to money.   

So you can say this may inevitable, but the right call? Please take an Uber home. 

 

[Need4speed99]

So not only is ownership out of touch with their fanbase their beat writers are too.

Sorry when your team has this historical collapse, you need serious changes in all facets of management. 

I would include ownership( as the majority blame is theirs) but billionaires are above reproach... nothing changes in the future until management and ownership changes.

[Riverbrian]

On 10/4/2024 at 3:03 PM, terrydactyls said:

In addition to playing lineup merry-go-round, the other big issue I have is scheduled days off to keep players fresh.  With all the complaints lately attributed to players about how worn out they are, I would have to assume that scheduled days off isn't working.  So I did a little digging into the numbers,  145 players played 130 or more games in 2024.  Only 2 were Twins (Castro and Santana).  Another 7 Twins were in the group of 129 players who played between 100 and 129 games (Margot - 129, Jeffers - 122, Miranda - 121, Larnach - 112, Farmer - 107 {but only 215 AB}, Kepler - 105, and Buxton - 102.  The 66 players that played over 150 games averaged .258 BA, .331 OBP, .440 Slug and .773 OPS.  It sure seems like playing nearly every day didn't hurt their performance.  Among those who played 158 games or more were Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Bobby Witt, Elly De La Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero, Shohei Ohtani Corbin Carroll, and Aaron Judge.  This group averaged 29 HR, 93 RBI, .269 AVG, .346 OPS, .484 SLUG, and .831 OPS.  No scheduled days off didn't seem to impact their performance - especially in the last few weeks of the season.  Set a lineup and let them play until they tell you they need a day off.

I Appreciate the research on this post. It gives the post cred in my opinion. 

Lots of people want a set lineup. My question is... How exactly do you do that? 

The numbers you list in your research. How much of that was scheduled days off? How much was injury? If injury is prevalent and it sure seems to be every year. How do you keep a static lineup knowing a cannonball will roll through it at any moment? How do you staff a 26 man roster in preparation for that cannonball of injury or unexpected Julien like poor performance. 

I agree with you that scheduled days off are questionable. The players they tried to load manage ended up getting hurt anyway but how can a team use a set lineup in the face of everything that punches a team in the head. 

You list 8 players from other teams. Do the Twins have anybody like that who remained healthy? Santana and Castro led the team in AB's because they stayed healthy and were switch hitters. Our version of Bobby Witt didn't.