Grading the 2024 Minnesota Twins: Hitters

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

How did he grade out in the corners?  I didn’t know he was that bad in CF.  I thought he was passable but needed some work getting used to CF still I imagine.

Not good. He reacts way too late to the ball when it is hit which limits his overall range. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 9/30/2024 at 7:22 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I agree that injuries should not be part of the equation.  That being said:
Correa = A
Buxton = A-
Santana = B+ (factoring in his defense, he basically anchored the team this year)

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't our catching unit rank in the top third on offense in baseball this year?  Interesting that you gave out C/D grades for that...

What also scares me is that Julien (F), Miranda, (D+), Martin (D+) and probably Lee (D) are all currently penciled in to start or be heavy rotation players next year...

I do think with Miranda one has to wonder how much he was impacted by injury. He went on the IL with the lower back strain in July, came back and promptly got hit in the head by a 97 MPH fastball on July 28. He was hitting .324 at the time. He then regressed big time and hit .232 in August and .196 in September. Even worse, when I saw him on TV he was constantly blinking like a man whose contact lenses were moving around and he seemed just a fraction slower to react to things. He very easily might have been fighting a mild concussion and/or a psychological reaction to getting hit in the head by a fastball.

I don't mean this as an excuse for Miranda's performance. I just mean to suggest that his performance the first four months of the season suggests he's a much better hitter than he showed the last two months of the season after getting hit in the head. I expect him to be the starting 1B next year and am hoping/expecting that he will hit something like .275/.325/.425 or better in that role, playing against both right-handed and left-handed pitching. It should be noted he hit right-handers better 2024 then he hit left-handers. I see him as a solid #5 or #6 hitter, albeit with some defensive limitations.

I don't think we will bring back Santana. He was average or slightly below average hitter for a 1B, and definitely very good defensively. He will also be 39 in 2025, can't run at all, and was one of our least clutch hitters in the last couple weeks of the season. He can't hit left-handed very well at all anymore so he's really a short side platoon player/defensive replacement at this stage. We don't need that and let's be honest, we're not spending $5 million plus for that for 2025. I expect Santana to be signed mid-to-late spring training by somebody else to replace an injured player and/or the play for a younger team in need of a "veteran presence".

[LA Vikes Fan]

23 hours ago, S Bart said:

Who is going to play 1st base? Julian has not even been able to tackle 2nd base (Note that Farmer was in that role at the end of the year).  Miranda...he has taken a deep dive. Kiriloff  was the answer at the start of the season, but he faded fast. They have nobody with experience in that position. It is doubtful that Santana will be retained. 

As I mentioned in a previous comment, take a look at Miranda's hitting before he got hit in the head by 97 mile-per-hour fastball in Detroit and after. Totally different guy. He would stand up in the batter's box blinking away like his contacts for moving and then react a tick slow to the fastball. Strikes me that getting hit in the head by fastball may have given him a mild concussion/psychological aversion to anything inside. Hopefully he will be the same guy he was the first four months of the season next year or at least something close to that. He will be the starting 1B or 3B on Opening Day 2025 unless he is injured or the Twin somehow miraculously sign a veteran free-agent 1B. Almost laughed out loud when I said that thing about signing a FA.

Santana ain't coming back, not at five or $6 million or anything close to it. Fine defensive 1B, average hitter for that position overall, but a substantially below average hitter from the left side. Add to that that he can't run at all and will be 39 next year (he may not fall off a cliff but he sure can see it from where he is) and Santana is really a short side platoon player/defensive replacement on a good team. Whether or not you think the Twins are going to be a good team in 2025, I have a high degree of confidence they are going to pay $5 million-$6 million for that kind of player or anything even close.

[S Bart]

23 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

As I mentioned in a previous comment, take a look at Miranda's hitting before he got hit in the head by 97 mile-per-hour fastball in Detroit and after. Totally different guy. He would stand up in the batter's box blinking away like his contacts for moving and then react a tick slow to the fastball. Strikes me that getting hit in the head by fastball may have given him a mild concussion/psychological aversion to anything inside. Hopefully he will be the same guy he was the first four months of the season next year or at least something close to that. He will be the starting 1B or 3B on Opening Day 2025 unless he is injured or the Twin somehow miraculously sign a veteran free-agent 1B. Almost laughed out loud when I said that thing about signing a FA.

Santana ain't coming back, not at five or $6 million or anything close to it. Fine defensive 1B, average hitter for that position overall, but a substantially below average hitter from the left side. Add to that that he can't run at all and will be 39 next year (he may not fall off a cliff but he sure can see it from where he is) and Santana is really a short side platoon player/defensive replacement on a good team. Whether or not you think the Twins are going to be a good team in 2025, I have a high degree of confidence they are going to pay $5 million-$6 million for that kind of player or anything even close.

Not going to dispute the fact that they will spend money on Santana. It is a bit sad that a 38-year-old led the team in hitting statistics. Although, I do hope that he earns a gold glove.  Sorry, don't agree with your synopsis and the outlook on Miranda. I do not believe that he would be solid at first base and question his long-term sustainability. First base will be a "mystery position."  Honestly, the Twins have so very many challenges going into next year that are far more pressing.

P.S... LA Vikes fan, I live in San Diego and will be at SO-Fi, (first time) to watch the Vikes at the end of the month.

[JD-TWINS]

On 9/30/2024 at 9:51 AM, VivaBomboRivera! said:

A tad harsh with Farmer, Martin, Miranda, Lee and Vasquez. Otherwise in full agreement.

Leave out the injuries. That's out of player control. Unless it would be to give more credit to Larnach (and others) for finding a way to overcome their hurts.

I love Kyle Farmer and he deserves nothing more than a D ………..Brooks Lee deserves a D-…,….Martin, relative to expectations, deserves a C in my opinion. Vazquez had a hot 5 week stretch, probably a C-. Miranda doesn’t seem to have the physical strength/fitness to play a whole season at a reasonable level. I really don’t care if he hits 5 HR for the year but the line drive doubles gap to gap need to happen regularly for him to be on the Team as he has no defensive strength - he’s maybe OK. C for Jose IMO. Jeffers is C- at best ……he had 10 of his 21 HR before the end of May. He had a nice 2 strike approach and then he seemed to lose that ability to choke up and make contact. As strong as he is, he should choke up ALL the time - his higher barrel rate would allow him to continue to hit HR’s and Doubles and make more positive contact to RF. Julien, D-! That’s a D ….. D- …… D- for the core 2B on our roster according to me. It’s rough any way you look at it…..

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I do think with Miranda one has to wonder how much he was impacted by injury. He went on the IL with the lower back strain in July, came back and promptly got hit in the head by a 97 MPH fastball on July 28. He was hitting .324 at the time. He then regressed big time and hit .232 in August and .196 in September. Even worse, when I saw him on TV he was constantly blinking like a man whose contact lenses were moving around and he seemed just a fraction slower to react to things. He very easily might have been fighting a mild concussion and/or a psychological reaction to getting hit in the head by a fastball.

I don't mean this as an excuse for Miranda's performance. I just mean to suggest that his performance the first four months of the season suggests he's a much better hitter than he showed the last two months of the season after getting hit in the head. I expect him to be the starting 1B next year and am hoping/expecting that he will hit something like .275/.325/.425 or better in that role, playing against both right-handed and left-handed pitching. It should be noted he hit right-handers better 2024 then he hit left-handers. I see him as a solid #5 or #6 hitter, albeit with some defensive limitations.

I don't think we will bring back Santana. He was average or slightly below average hitter for a 1B, and definitely very good defensively. He will also be 39 in 2025, can't run at all, and was one of our least clutch hitters in the last couple weeks of the season. He can't hit left-handed very well at all anymore so he's really a short side platoon player/defensive replacement at this stage. We don't need that and let's be honest, we're not spending $5 million plus for that for 2025. I expect Santana to be signed mid-to-late spring training by somebody else to replace an injured player and/or the play for a younger team in need of a "veteran presence".

Santana is maybe a 30% chance of coming back. ……..   ”…….one of the least clutch hitters the last couple weeks”…..Santana & about 6 or 7 other guys! Lead the Team in HR & RBI - Gold Glove at 1B……big hole potentially…….$5M and he starts at 1B v lefties, starts maybe 30-40 other games at 1B and pinch hits……batting 8th in line-up. Good depth guy - insurance! Correct, he cannot run well but that seems to be the Team mantra - Jose Miranda is 13 years younger and doesn’t have more than a half step on Castro.

[RpR]

If Margot gets an F, the Lewis and Jeffers should get an F.

Lewis did nothing after the early games and his defense is horrid; ditto for Jeffers.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

 

On 9/30/2024 at 10:51 PM, VivaBomboRivera! said:

A tad harsh with Farmer, Martin, Miranda, Lee and Vasquez. Otherwise in full agreement.

Leave out the injuries. That's out of player control. Unless it would be to give more credit to Larnach (and others) for finding a way to overcome their hurts.

Expand  

I love Kyle Farmer and he deserves nothing more than a D ………..Brooks Lee deserves a D-…,…

 

You're a hard man, JD, but it were a hard year, warn't it? 🤠

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

20 hours ago, S Bart said:

Not going to dispute the fact that they will spend money on Santana. It is a bit sad that a 38-year-old led the team in hitting statistics. Although, I do hope that he earns a gold glove.  Sorry, don't agree with your synopsis and the outlook on Miranda. I do not believe that he would be solid at first base and question his long-term sustainability. First base will be a "mystery position."  Honestly, the Twins have so very many challenges going into next year that are far more pressing.

P.S... LA Vikes fan, I live in San Diego and will be at SO-Fi, (first time) to watch the Vikes at the end of the month.

You may be right that first base will be a mystery position going forward. I do think Mirnada is going to get the first shot at holding that down, maybe in some sort of timeshare with Julien. I think Miranda could potentially be a solid hitter at the MLB level going forward. I think Julien is a complete crapshoot both at the plate in the field. I do not see the Twins bringing back Santana or bringing in a free agent first baseman so I think those guys are the only two real options.

Enjoy SoFi!  Should be a good game and they'll be a lot of Vikings fans in attendance. I'm in a season ticket group for the Chargers and was there when they played the Vikings at SoFi.  I would guess the crowd to be at least 40% Vikings fans, most of them in Vikings jerseys. The venue is nice and the fan experience pretty good. Just two words of warning - the parking situation is not good or very well organized (although after complaints it is getting better), and the stadium food is bad. They apparently contracted with Jerry Jones' company to provide the stadium food and its overpriced as expected but also pretty low quality. I would eat before I come to the game. They do have a lot of bars though so it's pretty easy to get a beer and they have some craft beer selections.

[S Bart]

1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

You may be right that first base will be a mystery position going forward. I do think Mirnada is going to get the first shot at holding that down, maybe in some sort of timeshare with Julien. I think Miranda could potentially be a solid hitter at the MLB level going forward. I think Julien is a complete crapshoot both at the plate in the field. I do not see the Twins bringing back Santana or bringing in a free agent first baseman so I think those guys are the only two real options.

Enjoy SoFi!  Should be a good game and they'll be a lot of Vikings fans in attendance. I'm in a season ticket group for the Chargers and was there when they played the Vikings at SoFi.  I would guess the crowd to be at least 40% Vikings fans, most of them in Vikings jerseys. The venue is nice and the fan experience pretty good. Just two words of warning - the parking situation is not good or very well organized (although after complaints it is getting better), and the stadium food is bad. They apparently contracted with Jerry Jones' company to provide the stadium food and its overpriced as expected but also pretty low quality. I would eat before I come to the game. They do have a lot of bars though so it's pretty easy to get a beer and they have some craft beer selections.

Thanks for the info. about the unique SoFi stadium. I believe that I will try to locate parking near some type of mass transit and take that route. I have not seen a Vikings game since Brett Farve was their QB. Hopefully they will do well in London on Sunday. 

The Chargers in SD still told a negative connotation (not so for me). I have numerous friends who had season tickets who feel that the word "Chargers" is a curse word due to feeling abandoned by the owner. I live near the old stadium that has been torn down and replaced by one for soccer.

One thing that I like about the Padres' games is that they permit you to bring your own food (not beer) through the gates. Although, a tall can of beer still runs about $16.00. The city, fans, and ownership so very much support the team. It is sad that the Twins ownership cannot get onboard to run it like SD operation. 

[bean5302]

I've decided to grade the players based on expectations and purely based on "hitting"

Buxton. B - He played 25% more games than could have been reasonably expected and he did so with a .279/.335/.524 triple slash that fueled the wRC+ 142 result. Thankfully, he ended on one of his patented hot streaks to inflate his numbers, but that doesn't wipe out the 2 months of below league average production to start the season so he gets docked a point to "B"

Castro. B - Castro did exactly the same thing he did last year, which is to be a bit above average hitter. Considering last year was a big step forward for Castro, just holding his own wasn't guaranteed. Solid B.

Correa. C - While his production at the plate was the best of his career at .310/.388/.517, Correa missed a ton of games. Playing in only 86 games is a serious knock against the expected performance for him. He gets a C.

Farmer. F - His late season batting production aside, Farmer was miserable at the plate for most of the year while also seemingly being responsible for a TOOTBLAN on a regular basis when he did get onto the field. A .214/.293/.353 wRC+ 85 campaign was not only poor by league standards, but even lower than modest expectations for him coming into the season.

Jeffers. D - While a lot of Twins fans seem to think Jeffers is a great hitter, I do not and did not. Last year's production was not only lucky, but it even felt lucky to me. Jeffers continued to drive the ball hard and was on fire to open the season, but he was utterly worthless multiple months of the year. His overall production is where I expected him to be .226/.300/.432 wRC+ 107, but the Twins needed Jeffers to be more steady.

Julien. F - I don't think I need to say much here. Though I do think Julien was treated poorly by the organization, he just wasn't even remotely good. He needs to make adjustments and get out of his own head or his career is over.

Kepler. F - After last year's surge, expectations were raised for Kepler coming into a free agency year and the recent changes to the shift. Instead, he laid an egg. While his .253/.302/.380 wRC+ 94 performance wasn't unplayable, he was for nearly 60 games of the year due to his constant injuries. Between constantly missing time and another season with his power vanishing into the clouds and long slumps, Kepler gets an F.

Kirilloff. F - This might be touch unfair since I didn't think Kirilloff was an MLB quality player to begin with, but I didn't think he'd be that bad. His .201/.270/.384 wRC+ 83 performance looked a lot like his 2022, but without the BABIP gods' help. Turning in the worst hitting performance of his career, Kirilloff sunk to new lows trying to dodge a demotion with a back injury nobody could identify or treat.

Larnach. A - Anything less than an "A" for Larnach is a total disservice IMHO. Relegated to pre-arbitration with options injury replacement depth, it seemed like the writing was on the wall. Virtually unplayable strikeout rates for the mediocre power he produced, Larnach was a league average bat who needed shielding from lefties. Good enough to play for a decent team in a pinch, but certainly not starter grade. Larnach completely reinvented his game in 2024 appearing in 112 games and 400 plate appearances, he produced at a .259/.338/.434 wRC+ 121 pace. Far, FAR above expectations. Baldelli's broken spreadsheet macros still made sure Larnach didn't see PAs against lefties so no clue if he'd be better with a few more of those, but Larnach continued to hit steadily all year.

Lee. F - So my expectations for Lee have been utility infielder for a while, but it seems the Twins and a lot of other fans had "All Star" written on his forehead after Spring Training... Anyway, "he was a rookie!!" isn't really a great excuse for that kind of production, especially given how consistently overpowered he was at the plate. .221/.265/.320 wRC+ 62. He was expected to make the MLB club this year, and people expected him to be good. On top of that, Lee missed huge swaths of the season with injuries.

Lewis. F - My favorite Twins player and the player with the highest ceiling on the club since Joe Mauer IMHO. I expected Lewis would put up a healthy 6+ WAR season this year. I really did. An opening day quad injury sucked the wind right out of the sails. The dream of a healthy season seems... a lot further away now, but once he was back, he destroyed baseballs again, and it was a sight to see. Until it wasn't. Lewis had been struggling for a while when Baldelli shoved a 2B assignment down his throat when Lewis was already seemingly on edge. Lewis sputtered to a miserable finish with his home run power turning into warning track power, and the first real glimpses of Lewis' indominable optimism turning into infighting with Carlos Correa at the end. He still finished the year with an above average overall .233/.295/.452 wRC+ 109 season, but having missed half the year and slumped hard for the last 2 months, it was a colossal disappointment.

Martin. C - Didn't expect much, didn't get much. His performance at the plate was almost exactly in line with several projection tools. .253/.318/.352 wRC+ 94.

Margot. F - Come on. Do I really need to explain? .238/.289/.337 wRC+ 79. Much worse than that for a good portion of the year, Margot's going to enjoy a MiLB contract next year. Set an all time MLB record for futility at the plate as a pinch hitter going 0-30. Luckily for him, there's no grade worse than "F" and we are grading "hitters" not defense here.

Miranda. A - Late season slump aside, like Larnach, Miranda didn't make the roster out of Spring Training, and apparently expectations were very low after a shoulder injury sapped Miranda's production last year. He responded by being one of the most fun Twins hitters to watch most of the year, finishing with a .284/.322/.441 wRC+ 115 performance. Like Larnach, far exceeding expectations at the plate coming into the season, and at one point, far higher than that.

Santana. B - Let's be honest. Most people expected Santana to produce around league average, with a bit of optimism. Instead, he responded with a season looking a lot more like his late prime than his late twilight. After starting the season terribly, his bat finished with a .238/.328/.420 wRC+ 114 season well above expectations.

Vazquez. F - .221/.248/.327 wRC+ 60. One of the worst hitters MLB has ever seen accumulating 300 plate appearances, Vazquez managed a pitiful 3.5% BB rate while also demonstrating a poor hit tool, bad base running and weak power. Any hopes of a rebound from last year are dashed.

Wallner. A - As I said before the season started, Wallner is a beast. .259/.372/.523 wRC+ 155 and he continued to hit even as the rest of the team slumped. Right on pace for a 4 WAR campaign as a corner outfielder. Hopefully, he'll get the opportunity to see more plate appearances next year and Wallner can adapt his swing further to reduce some strikeouts to solidify his bat as one of the best in MLB.
 

[twinfan]

Your ratings are not fair to some players because you included injuries and/or defense which downgraded some. I completely disagree with your rating Miranda a D. I'd give him a B-. I'd upgrade Correa to an A and Santana to an A- because of his clutch hits and maybe drop Larnach a bit to a B. If I knew more about how players did in advancing runners and driving in runners- something which the team never seemed to do well, I'd have more accurate ratings as would you.

[twinfan]

On 10/2/2024 at 3:37 PM, bean5302 said:

Larnach. A - Anything less than an "A" for Larnach is a total disservice IMHO. Relegated to pre-arbitration with options injury replacement depth, it seemed like the writing was on the wall. Virtually unplayable strikeout rates for the mediocre power he produced, Larnach was a league average bat who needed shielding from lefties. Good enough to play for a decent team in a pinch, but certainly not starter grade. Larnach completely reinvented his game in 2024 appearing in 112 games and 400 plate appearances, he produced at a .259/.338/.434 wRC+ 121 pace. Far, FAR above expectations. Baldelli's broken spreadsheet macros still made sure Larnach didn't see PAs against lefties so no clue if he'd be better with a few more of those, but Larnach continued to hit steadily all year.

Interesting. Did you ever give Kepler an "A" rating in any of his seasons on the team? Larnach stats are no better than Kepler's during his career and Kepler did face lefties at times. If Larnach is an "A" hitter compared to Correa and Buxton, we are in deep doo-doo next year. Yes he had a better year than in the past but an "A"? Not in my book. Sorry.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, twinfan said:

Interesting. Did you ever give Kepler an "A" rating in any of his seasons on the team? Larnach stats are no better than Kepler's during his career and Kepler did face lefties at times. If Larnach is an "A" hitter compared to Correa and Buxton, we are in deep doo-doo next year. Yes he had a better year than in the past but an "A"? Not in my book. Sorry.

Was Kepler ever looking like a non-tender candidate? Like I said, expectations vs. actual production is how I graded. Your snark aside, I would have given Kepler an A in 2019.

Larnach doesn't control the lineup card. Of all the hitters with 400+ PA this year, Trevor Larnach ranked 42nd in all of MLB.