Searching for Replacement Value on the Twins Roster

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s top three fWAR leaders are all on the injured list with no imminent sign of return. Can the Twins find value from different parts of the roster?

 

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Joe Ryan have all carried the Twins through different parts of the 2024 season, and that’s why that trio stands atop the team’s leaderboard for fWAR. Correa was an All-Star in the first half, but plantar fasciitis is preventing him from making any impact in the second half. Buxton was close to returning from a hip injury before more hip pain halted his rehab assignment. Ryan likely won’t return this season after the team placed him on the 60-day IL, as the right-hander has yet to resume pitching after sustaining a Grade 2 teres major strain. All three players might be done for the year, or they will be limited when they return. 

Correa’s Replacement Value
Offense Value: Royce Lewis
Defense Value: Brooks Lee
The Twins face a significant challenge in replacing Carlos Correa's value in the lineup, especially with his all-around contributions. Royce Lewis can fill the offensive void left by Correa, given his dynamic bat, ability to drive in runs, and clutch hitting, which have already impacted his young career. Lewis has slumped in the second half, with his OPS dropping by over 300 points, but he has a chance to carry the team’s offense for the stretch run. Meanwhile, with his advanced defensive instincts, Brooks Lee could be the team’s best replacement to match Correa's elite glove at shortstop. Playing Lee at shortstop also opens up the possibility for Willi Castro to play other defensive positions. Combining Lewis's offensive spark and Lee's defensive reliability, the Twins can create a tandem that mirrors Correa's overall value.

Buxton’s Replacement Value
Offense Value: Willi Castro
Defense Value: DaShawn Keirsey Jr. 
Replacing Buxton's value in the Twins' lineup is no easy task, as his elite combination of power, speed, and defense can impact all facets of the game. However, Castro can step up as an offensive replacement, providing versatility at the plate with his ability to get on base and swipe bags, offering a dynamic presence similar to Buxton’s. He posted a .774 OPS in the first half and has dipped to .614 in the second half. The Twins need more of Castro’s first-half performance to compensate for Buxton’s loss. On the defensive side, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. brings the athleticism and range in the outfield needed to replicate Buxton’s Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field. There are no guarantees that Keirsey will get regular playing time, but he is the best center-field defender on the roster. 

Ryan’s Replacement Value
Rotation Value: David Festa
Entering the season, Festa was arguably the Twins’ top pitching prospect, and he’s done nothing but raise his stock throughout the 2024 campaign. Since being recalled by the Twins on July 24th, Festa has made eight appearances and posted a 3.13 ERA with a 2.94 FIP and a 50-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 37 1/3 innings. Opponents have been held to a .622 OPS during that stretch, and he provided depth by pitching five or more innings in five of those eight appearances. While Ryan's absence leaves a significant gap, Festa’s ability to generate swings-and-misses and his potential to eat innings make him an intriguing option for the rotation as the Twins look for reinforcements.

Where else can the Twins get value from their roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Hrbeks Divot]

I agree that Festa is making an impact and is a possible replacement for Ryan. However, given his lack of experience, it remains to to be seen how he performs as the stakes get higher. He’s doing exactly what he should be doing as the team’s most MLB ready pitching prospect. We should expect to see some ups and downs in his performance and be okay with that. Hopefully he’ll be a rotation mainstay for the foreseeable future and continue to get better.

I don’t understand the other comps at all. We can’t play two players at one post unless I’ve missed some rule change. Rocco will do what Rocco does with platooning and reason the matchups but he can’t do magic. Each player listed has their respective strengths but to combine their skill sets to find replacement for a lost player doesn’t compute for me.

[LambchoP]

Lewis or Lee cannot REPLACE Correa. Castro cannot REPLACE Buxton. These are guys that all need to be playing together. There was only 17 games this year with Lewis Buxton and Correa in the lineup together. That's horrible. It's looking more and more like all three of these guys, the highest paid and supposed leaders of our team, cannot handle the rigors of a full baseball season. Buxton and Correa only play about half the games and this probably won't be getting any better as they get into their 30's. Lewis also seems to be as injury prone as anyone. Like everyone else, I was glad they locked up Buxton and glad they signed Correa. But using up most of the payroll on just a few guys who are always out really hurts the rest of the team. And with all the payroll cutting, it really hamstrings our GM and doesn't leave much money to improve the team. I just think the Twins brain trust needs to focus more on durability as a skill when looking for free agents or draft picks. We even see this with our top prospects like Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez. Oh they are really good, when they're not on the IL....

[chpettit19]

Lewis and Castro can't be offensive replacements for other guys when they have to figure things out and replace their own production. Lewis and Castro were already being counted on to provide top of the lineup offense. The offense has to come from guys who weren't already keys to the offense themselves. 

[USAFChief]

What a strange, poorly conceived article. 

[bean5302]

Pretty sure Cody is advocating the possibility of rebuilding the missing players in the aggregate like the conversation with Athletics scouts in the meeting room in Moneyball, but I don't think there's a solid foundation behind it here.

Lewis is already a starter so it's not like he can replace part of any other player.


Other players like Lee, Castro and Keirsey can't play defense only or pinch hitter only. They have to play both in the field and at the plate. Neither Keirsey nor Castro are as good as Buxton in the field or at the plate, let alone both, and Lee isn't as good in the field or at the plate as Correa.

The argument for Festa as a potential replacement for Ryan is legitimate since at least Festa occupies a slot in the rotation he wouldn't have without injuries to Ryan, Paddack and probably DeSclafani even. Ryan's first half performances are often excellent, with poor 2nd half results, but there's a bit of a catch even here, though. Ryan was already trying to replace Pablo Lopez who was trying to replace Sonny Gray. Festa as a mid rotation playoff starter? I mean, it could happen, but it feels like an incredibly tall ask given his limited success at AAA, his inability to pitch deep into games, and his up and down results.

[terrydactyls]

Correa, Buxton, and Castro are actually the top three in FWAR (according to Fabgraphs).  Lewis is #8.

[gman]

I think a lineup of -

Jeffers/Vazguez.     c

Santana/ Miranda   1b

Julian/Helman          2B

Lee/Farmer.             SS

Lewis/Miranda.         3B

Larnach/Martin.        LF

Kiersey/Castro.          CF

Wallner.                    RF

Lewis/Miranda.         DH

Is just not a playoff lineup. Maybe in a couple of years they might be, but not yet. 

Nobody is providing surplus value at this time, although several have at various times this year.