Week in Review: Losing Games, But Not Ground

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins dropped four of six at home as their late-season slump lingers, but they only lost a half-game in the Central standings and they remain 4 ½ clear of Boston for the last wild-card spot. With one month left to go, the goal for Minnesota is simple: hang on for dear life.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/26 through Sun, 9/1
***
Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 74-62)
Run Differential Last Week: -22 (Overall: +51)
Standing: T-2nd Place in AL Central (3.5 GB) 

Game 131 | ATL 10, MIN 6: Ober Bombs in Weather-Disrupted Loss
Game 132 | ATL 8, MIN 6: Twins Battle Back, But Can't Finish Job
Game 133 | ATL 5, MIN 1: Bullpen and Bats Fold in Sweep-Clincher
Game 134 | MIN 2, TOR 0: Pablo Deals, Jax and Duran Shut Door
Game 135 | TOR 15, MIN 0: Matthews Implodes, Offense Goes Quietly
Game 136 | MIN 4, TOR 3: Lewis's Clutch Home Run Salvages Series

IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY.

NEWS & NOTES

Still no Carlos Correa. Still no Byron Buxton. We have officially flipped the calendar to September and neither star player has so much as begun a rehab assignment. While Buxton could be close to doing so, it's time to come to grips with the reality that Correa probably isn't going to make it back before the end of September if at all. There is sadly no indication that the All-Star shortstop is anywhere close to being ready as his plantar fasciitis continues to keep him from running at full intensity. 

Struggling to win games in the absence of their best players, the Twins did get some key reinforcements on Sunday when rosters expanded for September. Reliever Diego Castillo joined the bullpen, although his presence is likely temporary. Michael Helman was also promoted from Triple-A, setting up his MLB debut at age 28 and giving the Twins a versatile right-handed bat. They'll need Helman in this capacity, with Manuel Margot landing on the injured list due to a groin injury suffered on Saturday.

The biggest addition was Brooks Lee, who rehabbed with the Saints over the past week after spending three weeks on the injured list with a shoulder injury. The infielder launched a homer and a pair of doubles in five games with St. Paul, and went 1-for-4 in his return to MLB action on Sunday. If he can find a way to recapture the same spark he provided upon first joining the Twins back in July, Lee could be a big difference-maker in the final month.

One person who won't be a difference-maker for the Twins in September is their lone trade deadline pickup. Trevor Richards was designated for assignment on Tuesday, less than a month after the front office acquired him from Toronto in one of the lowest-wattage, most pointless deadline moves imaginable. Michael Tonkin was claimed off waivers to replace Richards on the roster, after being waived by the Yankees days earlier.  

The Twins also designated Caleb Boushley for assignment and moved Chris Paddack to the 60-day IL.

HIGHLIGHTS

Friday night's game followed the script that Rocco Baldelli and the Twins hope to orchestrate if they're going to make noise in the playoffs. In fact, it's pretty much the exact same script that played out in their streak-shattering Game 1 victory over the very same Blue Jays team last October. Pablo López pitched brilliantly, outdueling Kevin Gausman. The offense scratched together enough to build a small lead. Griffin Jax and Jhoan Durán locked down said lead at game's end. That is a formula that simply works for this team.

López has been inspiring a great deal of confidence lately, with his latest gem adding to a growing run of ace-caliber performance. In his past 12 starts, he's got a 2.38 ERA and the Twins have gone 8-4. Crucially, López has relieved the burden on a beleaguered relief corps, completing seven or more innings in nearly half those starts.

He did leave Friday's game in a bit of a trouble spot, with two on and to out in the eighth, but Jax came in and did what he does, quickly neutralizing the threat. Jax struck out Daulton Varsho on three pitches, wrapping up a perfect month of August for the elite reliever: 12.1 IP, 0 R, 6 H (all singles), 17 K, 0 BB.

 

The Twins appeared to be headed for a 1-5 week before Royce Lewis turned the tides in Sunday's rubber match against Toronto. With the Twins trailing by two runs in the eighth, two on and one out, Lewis got a hold of a pitch from Chad Green and launched it just barely over the left-field wall for a go-ahead three-run blast. It was Lewis's first time going deep in 17 games, and hopefully a sign that he's ready to break free from the first extended offensive drought of his career.

 

LOWLIGHTS

As much as Friday night's game showcased a sound winning formula for the Twins, Saturday's blowout loss laid bare many of the flaws that threaten to derail this team's ambitions. 

A rookie starter still acclimating to the big leagues leagues got absolutely annihilated, with the Blue Jays jumping on poor Zebby Matthews for nine runs on 10 hits in two innings. Toronto came in with a gameplan to swing away at the strike-throwing newcomer, and Matthews had no answers. 

Minnesota's lefty-stacked lineup, meanwhile, could come up with nothing against José Berríos and the Jays bullpen, getting out-hit 23-to-4 in front of the home fans. Max Kepler went 0-for-4 to finish the month of August with a punchless .222/.250/.333 slash line; he had five extra-base hits, six RBIs and two walks in all of August. (He then started his September 0-for-4.) Lewis was 1-for-4 on Saturday, and 2-for-19 on the week before his dramatic homer on Sunday. These are the bats that Minnesota needs to be stepping up in the absence of Correa and Buxton. We got a positive sign from Royce at least, but there's no indication Kepler's close to getting hot, or even fully healthy.

The offense generally dragged hard after a decent start to last week, producing just four totals runs in their last four games before the three-run bomb late on Sunday. In addition to light yields from Kepler and Lewis, Austin Martin has crashed hard following a modest hot streak in mid-August. He was brutal last week, singling twice in 16 plate appearances with six strikeouts and no walks.

Speaking of brutal, Bailey Ober's impressive string of quality starts came crashing to a halt on Monday night, when he yielded nine earned runs over two innings against the Braves. With Joe Ryan down, it goes without saying that the Twins badly need Ober to pitch like a frontliner, like he has for the past couple of months. Hopefully the clunker against Atlanta was merely a hiccup, and his rebound on Sunday (6 IP, 1 ER) suggests so.

It was tough to watch the Twins come up so woefully short against the Braves, failing yet another litmus test against a top-tier team. There aren't many of those left now until October, which I suppose is a good thing, but Minnesota will need to show its mettle in key upcoming showdowns against Kansas City, Cleveland and Boston.

TRENDING STORYLINE

The handling of Louie Varland becomes a key focus as we march into the final month of the season. The Twins are going to need him as a weapon out of the bullpen if they want to beat good teams. They know that. At the same time, they still need him stretched out as rotation depth for the time being. Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com noted over the weekend that the team has talked about using six starters at times in September with to navigate a packed schedule.

 

The Twins currently have Wednesday's starter for the Tampa series listed as "To Be Decided," and it's expected Varland will be called up to make that start. Minnesota is on the early end of a stretch of 13 games with no break, and right now they need bulk innings from Varland more than anything. As they shift their gaze toward the end of the season and the playoffs, though, the Twins are going to need that bullpen upgrade we know he's able to provide. They're just too thin on quality options.

How long can they wait? Their position in the standings – still comfortable now, from a wild-card perspective – may dictate that answer.

LOOKING AHEAD

Rookies are slated to start four of seven games in the week ahead, with Varland expected to take another. The Twins are headed to Tampa to face an unexceptional Rays team, and then to Kansas City for a potentially pivotal three-game set against the Royals, with whom Minnesota is tied in the standings and jockeying for playoff position. The matchup on Friday, between Matthews and All-Star Cole Ragans, looms as an ominous one given Zebby's latest performance. Ober, who has a 7.71 career ERA in nine starts against the Royals, is scheduled to get the nod on Saturday. 

MONDAY, SEPT 2: TWINS @ RAYS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Zack Littell
TUESDAY, SEPT 3: TWINS @ RAYS – RHP David Festa v. LHP Jeffrey Springs
WEDNESDAY, SEPT 4: TWINS @ RAYS – TBD v. RHP Taj Bradley
THURSDAY, SEPT 5: TWINS @ RAYS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. LHP Shane Baz
FRIDAY, SEPT 6: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Zebby Matthews v. LHP Cole Ragans
SATURDAY, SEPT 7: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Bailey Ober v. TBD
SUNDAY, SEPT 8: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Michael Wacha

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[USAFChief]

I wonder if the Twins might swap Mathews and Lopez, starting Mathews on regular rest Thursday and pushing Lopez back to Friday.

They'd have Lopez, Ober and SWR lined up for KC.

 

[Blyleven2011]

It was a brutal week at target field  , a sweep from the braves and the zebby melt down on Saturday  ...

We are fortunate that we only lost a half a game to Cleveland in division and gained a game against Boston  in wild card 

Pablo  , Jax and Duran got the job done 2-0 on Friday and Lewis got the job done on Sunday with the game changing homerun in the eighth  , Lewis has 2 hits in a stretch but those 2 hits did provided rbi's  ...

With our star players injured and out , we need Lewis,  Miranda  , wallner and Santana to provide production  , we need players like larnach,  Martin , castro and lee to help set the stage for the big boppers ...

Let's make the adjustments and hit this week ...

Go Twins ...

[DocBauer]

The Twins might have not lost ground after a really bad week...luckily...but with only a month a month left of the regular season, overtaking Cleveland for the division might be an impossible task.

Cleveland has 2 more games against KC Tuesday and Wednesday after leading going in to the bottom of 9th Monday as I type this. Sure would be nice for the Royals to win the next 2. The Guardians then play the Dodgers for 3 games in LA. If the Twins can suddenly get hot again, they have a chance to make up a couple games this week. That could make the upcoming 4 game series with our Twins...and the last week of the season...of extreme interest and importance.

Of course, it's really up the Twins to get going again. 

I think I like the idea of Varland getting a start, maybe two, before moving to the pen. It might keep everyone fresher for the stretch run and the playoffs.

Kepler's knee just isn't going to be right until the season is over. Still, I almost wonder if he'd be better served by a brief IL stint just to rest, and bring up Keirsey briefly as a backup/fill-in option. 

Here's hoping Matthews can laugh a little about a horrible rookie game and shake it off.

[JD-TWINS]

I agree with DocBauer on sitting Kepler and replacing with Kiersey for 7-8 days with the IL move being retroactive a couple days. He’s no good to the Team if hobbled!

Once Varland is up he’s up to stay - can’t send him back down and not have him available for 15 days. I think he starts twice and is then in the Pen by 9/15. This gives them the option to let him continue to start if there are surprises with one of the other guys.

Good news: Boston is 5.5 games back…….Detroit is 6.0 games back……Seattle is 6.5 games back. I’m still not sure it’s not better to finish 3rd Wildcard and head to Houston v. heading to Baltimore or New York as the 2nd Wildcard.

Buxton had at least 1 hit and a walk on Sunday……back in K.C. Friday??

[D.C Twins]

Correa's long term availability with chronic foot problems......uff daaaa. 

I think we are up to a 50/50 chance that contract becomes....