What Does Walker Jenkins Need to Prove at High-A?

[Cody Christie]

Walker Jenkins is widely considered one of baseball’s top prospects. So now that he’s returned from the injured list, what must he prove at High-A?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Expectations were high for Walker Jenkins entering the season, even though he is 19 years old and had fewer than 120 professional plate appearances. Some evaluators felt he could have a meteoric rise similar to Jackson Holliday, baseball’s top prospect who moved from Low-A to Triple-A last season. Jenkins injured his hamstring during his first game of the season and was sidelined for multiple weeks, so it seems unlikely he will reach the Saints this season. Still, he is one of the best prospects to come through the Twins system over the last decade, and expectations will continue to be high. 

So, what should fans watch as Jenkins returns? What does he need to work on before being promoted to Cedar Rapids?

Power vs. Hit Tool
Jenkins has been known for his advanced approach at the plate throughout his amateur career. He’s dominated while facing players his own age, including a .362/.417/.571 (.989) slash line during his professional debut. His OPS was even higher than that during his rehab stint, so now it’s about his ability to hit in the Florida State League. His hit tool has always been vital, so fans can keep an eye on his in-game power. Can he continue to drive the ball to all fields? How does he fare against more advanced pitchers? Those are the questions the Twins hope he can answer in the coming months. 

Running Wild 
Jenkins has been known as a strong base runner, but a hamstring injury can slow him down on the bases. He went 3-for-3 in stolen base attempts during his rehab stint, including a two-steal game. Interestingly, the Twins were distraught with Royce Lewis stealing bases during his rehab stint with the Saints. However, Jenkins isn’t on pace to impact the big-league roster this season, so the organization must be fine with him being aggressive on the bases. Ideally, he will be hitting more extra-base hits so that steals won’t come into the picture, but he will continue to draw walks. Do the Twins want their star prospect running wild on the bases?

No Body Puts Jenkins in the Corner
The Twins have continued to use Jenkins in center field despite some evaluators believing he will move to a corner spot at some point in his career. The Mighty Mussels may start giving Jenkins reps in the corner outfield, but it makes sense for him to stay in center field for as long as possible. Minnesota follows a similar plan with Brooks Lee, who has played shortstop throughout his professional career even though Carlos Correa is blocking him at the big-league level. Teams value depth at up-the-middle positions, so there is no reason to move Jenkins until he adds more to his frame and grows out of the position (if that ever happens).

Avoiding the Twins' Top Prospect Injury Curse 
Minnesota’s top prospects for most of the last decade have been bitten by the injury bug, including Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, and Austin Martin. Jenkins missed time to start the 2024 campaign, and his previous injury history is something to consider. As a freshman in high school, he had surgery for a hip impingement, and he broke his hamate bone during his last year before the draft. All of Twins Territory hopes he can put his previous injuries behind him and get back to playing baseball.  

Jenkins has the potential to be a generational talent, but he is a long way from Target Field. Fans can have fun watching his progress this season, especially now that he can attempt to live up to the lofty hype surrounding his prospect status. 

What will you be watching with Jenkins? What should his goals be for the remainder of the season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[D.C Twins]

Whatever it is.... he will do it quickly

[Sutter50]

He has to get to High A first to prove anything.  That would be Cedar Rapids. Honest mistake I'm sure.

[bean5302]

40 minutes ago, Sutter50 said:

He has to get to High A first to prove anything.  That would be Cedar Rapids. Honest mistake I'm sure.

Yep. Jenkins is in "Low A" or just "A" ball since the downsizing of the MiLB system. What does he need to prove in Ft Myers A ball before getting promoted should be the question, and the answer to that is probably that he's far better than the average competition level he's facing. wRC+ 135ish? Something similar to what Luke Keaschall was doing last year. Batting average is important, but more important is the on base percentage and demonstrating game power, meaning he's barreling up balls. Right now, Jenkins is striking out 23% of the time in Ft. Myers vs. pretty low level competition and he's not driving the ball well. 

Since Jenkins only had 56 plate appearances with the Mighty Mussels last year, he's probably going to get at least another month of every day playing time before he might earn a promotion to the High-A Cedar Rapids Kernels, and it'll be a little later than that if his bat doesn't pick up.

I do expect Jenkins will probably be with the Kernels before the end of the year.

[mikelink45]

He needs to be healthy - he has everything else. 

[Sutter50]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yep. Jenkins is in "Low A" or just "A" ball since the downsizing of the MiLB system. What does he need to prove in Ft Myers A ball before getting promoted should be the question, and the answer to that is probably that he's far better than the average competition level he's facing. wRC+ 135ish? Something similar to what Luke Keaschall was doing last year. Batting average is important, but more important is the on base percentage and demonstrating game power, meaning he's barreling up balls. Right now, Jenkins is striking out 23% of the time in Ft. Myers vs. pretty low level competition and he's not driving the ball well. 

Since Jenkins only had 56 plate appearances with the Mighty Mussels last year, he's probably going to get at least another month of every day playing time before he might earn a promotion to the High-A Cedar Rapids Kernels, and it'll be a little later than that if his bat doesn't pick up.

I do expect Jenkins will probably be with the Kernels before the end of the year.

Agreed looking forward to seeing him in CR .

[LambchoP]

Stay healthy and on the field!

[DocBauer]

The FSL is a tough hitters league, and always has been. In one aspect, that's a good thing for young prospects, including Jenkins. It creates a natural flow from the FCL to the FSL, which is obviously the same location, just a stoll to another field. 

If you can hit in Florida, the bat should translate to A+ in the Midwest League.

So far, he's done everything that could be asked of him last year, and very limited time this season. I don't think a 1.000 plus OPS is necessarily indicative of his readiness to advance. I think it's more about his approach. Is he squaring up? Are his K's acceptable or is he reaching for stuff he has no business swinging at? If the eye and general approach are there, he'll move up to CR before the season is done. But with time missed, right now, he just needs to play and settle in. 

I'd expect him to stick at Ft Myers for at least June, maybe even part or all of July before getting August at A+. That should still allow 4-6 weeks of a higher level. 2025, he might begin at CR with a pretty quick promotion to AA, June 1st at the latest. That still keeps him on a very fast trajectory.

[twinstalker]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yep. Jenkins is in "Low A" or just "A" ball since the downsizing of the MiLB system.

Um, Low A has always been A.  There's A and A+, often referred to as low A and high A, respectively.  Since forever.

There was also, in some systems, A-, and I've never been quite sure what that was.  Seems high rookie.  When Elizabethton was winning the Appy rookie league most years, it was the Twins high rookie team vs many teams' low rookie team.  I imagine a number of those organizations had A- teams.  Some organizations just had more resources and therefore more players and therefore more rookie teams.  The New York-Penn league and Northwest league were two of these A- leagues, I think.  The Twins didn't have teams in either, at least in the last fifty years or so.

[bean5302]

41 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

Um, Low A has always been A.  There's A and A+, often referred to as low A and high A, respectively.  Since forever...

2021 restructure eliminated a league and changed technical terminology, but the slang remains.
Class A Advanced became High A (abbreviated A+)
Low A became Single A (abbreviated A)

(A-) was short season A ball, but not every team had a short season A ball affiliate.
 

[Otaknam]

Jenkins just needs good health and at bats.

[Ruven]

Sure it’s A ball and all that but his numbers jump off the page. In only 42 at bats with 12 walks this season he has 14 runs and 10 RBI. Unsustainable at higher levels, but in A ball Jenkins is a man among boys.

Now that the hamstring has healed, the Twins will have to promote him soon. 

[Seth Stohs]

No reason to rush him to Cedar Rapids. Granted, Cedar Rapids could probably use him. But I'd say let him just play for awhile. I'd say continue playing him four games per week for a couple of weeks, and then five for a couple of weeks, and then all six a couple of weeks. 

If he gets to Cedar Rapids in August, great. Honestly, if not, it doesn't really alter where he starts next next season. Be healthy. Work on quality ABs. The rest will take care of itself. 

[gman]

I think the main thing for him, is to prove he knows where Cedar Rapids is.

[twinstalker]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

2021 restructure eliminated a league and changed technical terminology, but the slang remains.
Class A Advanced became High A (abbreviated A+)
Low A became Single A (abbreviated A)
 

Ah, that might be true.  "High" and "low" were always used A+ and A, respectively, and they continue to be used, I guess that's what I was referring to.  If it's slang, so be it. :-)