9 Bold Predictions for the 2024 Minnesota Twins - Caretaker Exclusive

[Matthew Trueblood]

It's Opening Day, which means it's prime time for some bold predictions. What unexpected developments lie in store for the 2024 Minnesota Twins?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

There's always danger in setting out to make bold predictions. Most predictions that come true are not bold. They're conservative. It's tautological, but important, to say it: you only get most guesses right if you guess that statistically probable things will happen. It's much more fun, though, to try to predict the improbable. Let's leave probability-driven forecasting to computer models, meteorologists, and tarot card scam artists. I want to try to guess against the grain.

That doesn't mean we have to be wild and crazy, though--at least not in a way detached from reality. On the contrary, I hope to ground all of my predictions in some concrete reality, even if the numbers still say that what I project is unlikely. Ok, here we go.

1. Griffin Jax will strike out 91 or more batters.
In 2004, Juan Rincón struck out 106 batters as a reliever for the Twins. He pitched 82 innings in 77 appearances that season. In each of the next two seasons, Joe Nathan came up not far short of Rincón, with 94 and 95 strikeouts, respectively. When the strikeout surge among relievers really took root and began to grow, the Twins were right in the thick of it.

Just as has happened with starters, though, relievers have steadily lost a percentage of their formerly typical workload in the seasons since then. As a result, even while strikeout rates have climbed, the frequency of individual hurlers compiling gaudy strikeout totals in a season out of the pen has plateaued. Since Nathan's 2006, the most strikeouts by a Twins reliever in any campaign is the 90 managed by Taylor Rogers in 2019.

That will change this season. Jax, who seems so well-suited to the role of high-leverage relief and hardly ever throws a let-up fastball, has had nasty stuff ever since making his complete conversion to the bullpen. He's underachieved in terms of punchouts, though, because of the predominantly horizontal movement profile of his stuff. He's tweaked that this spring, and I'm expecting his strikeout rate to soar past 30%. Given how badly the team needs him in the absence of Jhoan Durán and the durability I expect him to continue to exhibit, Jax has a chance to pitch enough and get enough whiffs to threaten triple digits with his strikeout tally for 2024.

2. Byron Buxton will have a WAR under 2.0.
You didn't expect these all to be positive, did you? While Buxton is the feel-good story of spring training for Twins Territory, the actuarial charts are all against him, and I just don't trust him to have the kind of season we would all like to see. While I'm eager to see him take the field as a defender again, I harbor severe doubt that he can stay both fresh and healthy as a center fielder at this point in his career.

Buxton is a big guy who has dealt with injuries to virtually every part of his body. He's dealt with some back pain during camp. That's unlikely to help a player who has already struggled at times because of a grooved swing and difficulty covering some parts of the strike zone. Since the start of 2022, you've been able to get Buxton out at the bottom of the zone, or by busting him inside. Mistakes go a long, long way against him, but his strikeout rate over the last two years is north of 30% and plate coverage is not a skill that ages well.

Because he needs to see meatballs clearly out of the hand and convert them into barreled balls at such a high rate, Buxton has been a rhythm hitter over the last couple seasons. His wOBA when playing for at least the second day in a row is .364. If he's had at least one day off, though, it's .335, and if it's been three or more, it's under .250. The samples there are small and desperately noisy, because Buxton playing after one or more days off usually means Buxton is playing at something less than 100 percent, but he's 30 now. He's never going to be 100 percent again. Such is baseball; such is life.

I suspect Buxton will get hurt if he tries to play regularly in the outfield, but I'm also not at all sure he'll be the dazzling defender he was in his 20s, even while he's able to take his station there. A full year away from defensive duties is not an easy thing from which to recover, at this age. Between what I suspect will be mostly unsuccessful attempts to keep him fresh and the demands of playing both halves of an inning for the first time since 2022, I expect a rough season for the Twins' franchise player. In fact, I doubt he finishes the season with that mantle still around his shoulders.

3. Royce Lewis will start the All-Star Game at third base.
This one takes some doing. It's an expression of my profound faith in Lewis as a hitter, and of appreciation for his charisma and watchability. Rafael Devers and José Ramírez might both be future Hall of Famers. Alex Bregman is a perennial playoff playmaker heading for a highly lucrative free agency at season's end. Lewis, though, has a chance to outshine them all.

The grand slams and the playoff bombs are fun, but it's the coordinated aggression of Lewis's swing that excites me most. He has the blend of approach and mechanics to be a hitter who consistently not only keeps the line moving in big moments, but hits the telling drive. In the player comment I wrote about him for Baseball Prospectus 2024, I compared Lewis to Juan González at his peak, and I stand by that parallel, in terms of swing style and strength. The difference is that Lewis is also a very good athlete, whom I expect to add value as a defender at third base in his first full campaign at the position.

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[Muppet]

Baily Ober will be in the top 3 of AL Cy Young votes. 

 

[Doctor Gast]

Buxton under 2 WAR is very negative & IMO improbable whereas Buxton gaining at least 4 WAR is more probable. I don't doubt Royce Lewis potential that he has a good chance of making All-Star. I'd even say he is a dark horse for MVP.

[PatPfund]

I'm hoping you are wrong on Byron and Lee, but that is only hope.

My main hope on Byron is that he plays healthy roughly half of the season, and they IL him when he isn't healthy instead of cluttering the in-season roster with walking wounded. I think you are right on Julien, so I'd love to see the Twins also give Lee some play for the Saints in LF (he's a good enough athlete to pick it up), because the Twins OF looks like the sketchiest part of their lineup. Wallner looks pretty solid, but you covered concerns on Byron, and Kepler is not only a year older (and thus injury prone), but has only one half-season of hitting excellence in the past few years. Maybe Larnach learns to hit off-speed pitches, but just in case I'd love a couple MLB-bat-ready options at AAA, and right now I just see Martin.

My "bold" prediction is that Santana turns out to be the Joey Gallo Roadblock Award winner for 2023 (which is why by mid-season I see Kirilloff being too valuable there to play a ton of OF). 1B is an offense-first position, and carrying a two-year-over-the-cliff bat there not only blocks better hitters, but it means we can't have Celestino-like ABs from our corner OFs. (If only we'd spent the Santana/Jay Jackson money on Michael Lorenzen. Sigh.)

[roger]

Didn't get to read the entire post.  But you already rained on my parade.  Bah Humbug!!!

[RpR]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

IMy "bold" prediction is that Santana turns out to be the Joey Gallo Roadblock Award winner for 2023 (which is why by mid-season I see Kirilloff being too valuable there to play a ton of OF).

Kirilloffs batting average in Spring Training against Lefties was .000,.

Santana is going nowhere but to First Base, most games.

[SotaSports in NM]

Well written, well researched, and thought provoking.

Like one of the previous comments, I think it's inevitable that Buck provides more than 2 WAR (assuming he's as healthy to start the year as he seems).

I'd hate to see Lee go, but for the right controllable pitcher I'd be on board.

I'm also more conservative with Lewis, but can't deny that I expect a very productive year from him.

As a non-gambling man, I'd also pound the under on your estimate of 30 homers allowed by Ryan. I don't think he's going to solve his HR problem, but I think he takes a step in the right direction. 

I have many other thoughts on this that I need to gather in my head...

[ashbury]

Quote

3. Royce Lewis will start the All-Star Game at third base.

This has aged well with time.

[Doctor Gast]

I'd trade any of the other prospects & most anyone off our roster before I'd trade Lee, he is too valuable to our INF.

[Parfigliano]

Agree on Buxton under 2 WAR

[JD-TWINS]

SO, AGE has nothing to do with Buxton being nimble or able to be healthy. He’s never been healthy (one year) through 9 seasons. He didn’t go from 28 to 34 ……he’s 30 and a tremendous athlete. He’ll catch plenty of fly balls!

Now, his health and inability to Post is a huge concern!!! His WAR, just like everyone is connected by productivity and playing time. He hit 17 HR in ‘23 & similar amount of doubles while playing in around 85 games. He was Hurt nearly all season. He has huge holes (which were magnified with no legs in ‘23) in his approach at the plate but if he can play 110 games - 40 at DH, he’ll be in mid threes for WAR…….almost certainly he’ll get near 1.0 WAR on defense in less than half the 162 games - that will get offset by his DH appearances.

He seems positive and I do think the Management will protect him on some level. Need him to play CF in October!

[JD-TWINS]

I really like the Festa prediction!

Agree on Ryan having decent stuff, or better, but still being an enigma on the mound.

Don’t care how many K’s Jax has, respectfully. Get guys out!

Lewis is stricken from making All-Star Team with the Quad injury ….,…it’s going to be 6-8 weeks of waiting for him to get back.

Lewis’ history & getting hurt yesterday reinforces, IMO, why they never consider trading (the also injured) Brooks Lee. Lewis needs to play 3 months in a row at some point before anyone considers that Lee isn’t essential depth in the organization.

Hoping Pablo gets another chance in Playoffs so the nation can see how really good he is!

[PatPfund]

On 3/28/2024 at 1:50 PM, RpR said:

Kirilloffs batting average in Spring Training against Lefties was .000,.

Santana is going nowhere but to First Base, most games.

You may be right (though ST stats are mostly useless). I made a similar prediction about Solano last year (mostly based on ST at-bats), and spent the last 5 months of the season laughing at myself. The joy of predictions!

[RpR]

40 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

You may be right (though ST stats are mostly useless). I made a similar prediction about Solano last year (mostly based on ST at-bats), and spent the last 5 months of the season laughing at myself. The joy of predictions!

I doubt the Twins grabbed Santana for his bat, though not too bad, I would split a bet 98.6 against 1.4 that he was picked-up for his defense.

To change topic: Julienn at 2 nd is not a fumbles Foreman, but to make sure he does not fumble he is SLOOOOW, not a good thing; we will miss Polanco greatly, ESPECially if his Sprint Training numbers hold up.

[Muppet]

On 3/28/2024 at 11:12 AM, Muppet said:

Baily Ober will be in the top 3 of AL Cy Young votes. 

 

Yes. This prediction quickly did not age well.