Should we consider having Duran as our other postseason SP?

[ashbury]

21 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Is a so-so starter paid more than a great reliever? 

DeScalfini is making 12 million this year.

Disco is not a good example.  I reviewed his history on MLBTR to confirm what his b-r.com salary history seemed to imply. 

The Giants signed him on a one-year (make good, "buy low") $6M contract for 2021 after a terrible year for Cincy in 2020.  He responded with a very fine 2021 season, which resulted in the Giants signing him for 3 years 2022-24 at $12M apiece.  It's very hard to characterize the Giants as signing a so-so starter in this sequence of events.  They signed a quality (not all-star) starter, whose value plummeted as he got bit by the injury bug.

Wacha is a similar story.  When right, Michael Wacha is a quality starter.  I don't know that I agree with the Royals gamble that he'll be healthy enough across 2 seasons to justify $32M overall, but it's their money not mine, and hey they're the Royals after all.

These aren't guys who are questionable as starters and should be max-effort relievers.

Truly so-so starters don't command this kind of money.

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Disco is not a good example.  I reviewed his history on MLBTR to confirm what his b-r.com salary history seemed to imply. 

The Giants signed him on a one-year (make good, "buy low") $6M contract for 2021 after a terrible year for Cincy in 2020.  He responded with a very fine 2021 season, which resulted in the Giants signing him for 3 years 2022-24 at $12M apiece.  It's very hard to characterize the Giants as signing a so-so starter in this sequence of events.  They signed a quality (not all-star) starter, whose value plummeted as he got bit by the injury bug.

Wacha is a similar story.  When right, Michael Wacha is a quality starter.  I don't know that I agree with the Royals gamble that he'll be healthy enough across 2 seasons to justify $32M overall, but it's their money not mine, and hey they're the Royals after all.

These aren't guys who are questionable as starters and should be max-effort relievers.

Truly so-so starters don't command this kind of money.

When my son was younger... we'd have fun as I chased him around the room. I just kind of let him go where he wanted and I would follow behind him saying I'm gonna get you and we would laugh having a great time as he ran down whatever path was ahead of him with me following behind.  

Long story short... my wife wasn't happy when we ended up at the landfill. My son had to immediately take a bath when he got home and I slept in the garage for two nights. 

Anyway... chasing definitions around the room is going to lead us some place else. However... I'm adventurous. Disco had one good season in 2021. I think he is the definition of a so-so pitcher but let's assume that the 3 years at 36 million is a quality starter with value plummeting due to injury.

Let's just focus on that make good buy low 6 million dollar contract that you mention. How many relievers are making 6 million a year? 

15-Love Me - Your Serve

 

 

[Squirrel]

44 minutes ago, ashbury said:

/ squirrel took the same stance while I was typing, phrasing it differently, and maybe there are nuances between what she and I said

I was actually going to say you said it best

[Riverbrian]

18 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I was actually going to say you said it best

It was close but I'll give the edge to Ash because he mentioned Coconut. 

[Squirrel]

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

It was close but I'll give the edge to Ash because he mentioned Coconut. 

Yeah, but I love coconut. If he had used buttercreams instead, then, yes

[ashbury]

49 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Let's just focus on that make good buy low 6 million dollar contract that you mention. How many relievers are making 6 million a year? 

I don't know.  b-r.com lets me down in this case, because I can't figure out a way to use its Stathead search engine to display salaries along with playing stats.  Instead, I can use their regular Value page which does show salaries for 2023, and sift through manually.  Miles Mikolas led the majors with 35 starts, so I sorted by Games appeared in and looked at guys with 40+ games, checking for salaries $6M and up.  It was tedious but i counted 23.  This overlooks guys like Ryan Tepera wbo is paid $7M by the Angels (ha ha) to hardly pitch for them, but he's been a reliever all along so he should count.  Oops, Liam Hendriks too. Matt Barnes.  As I said, it gets tedious to sift through because then you get into who is really a reliever and who isn't. 

Anyway, the answer I came up with to your question is a couple dozen at least, fewer than three dozen.  Trevor May, already mentioned, is in the club.  Our old buddies Ryan Pressly and Taylor Rogers too.  Blasts from the past.  Starters turned into relievers who make good coin.

[Riverbrian]

12 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I don't know.  b-r.com lets me down in this case, because I can't figure out a way to use its Stathead search engine to display salaries along with playing stats.  Instead, I can use their regular Value page which does show salaries for 2023, and sift through manually.  Miles Mikolas led the majors with 35 starts, so I sorted by Games appeared in and looked at guys with 40+ games, checking for salaries $6M and up.  It was tedious but i counted 23.  This overlooks guys like Ryan Tepera wbo is paid $7M by the Angels (ha ha) to hardly pitch for them, but he's been a reliever all along so he should count.  Oops, Liam Hendriks too. Matt Barnes.  As I said, it gets tedious to sift through because then you get into who is really a reliever and who isn't. 

Anyway, the answer I came up with to your question is a couple dozen at least, fewer than three dozen.  Trevor May, already mentioned, is in the club.  Our old buddies Ryan Pressly and Taylor Rogers too.  Blasts from the past.  Starters turned into relievers who make good coin.

According to Sportrac which allows you to rank by pay per position.

The Answer is 39 relief pitchers made over 6 Million - Minus two because Disco and Nick Martinez are listed as relievers and part of the 39... So 37. 

39 Starters will make over 14 million this year. 77 will make over 6 million this year. 

And of course at the top of the pile. 6 Starters make over 35 million a year - 7 if you count Ohtani. 

No relief pitcher will make over 19,651,000 this year. 16 starters will - 17 if you count Ohtani. 

I have no idea if Duran can convert... I have no idea if Hicks will convert... but if they can.

Their agents and financial advisors and bankers will be happier.  

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree with you and Squirrel. 

I can only say that It seems that my preferred use of similes, metaphors, analogies, parables often times fall short. 

In the case of Duran... He's a great closer. I think it's quite possible that he has the talent to be a starter. If he doesn't... he doesn't... But... If he had the ability to do both well and help the team... I think he'd choose starter because he would play more and get paid more.

Also... if the Twins felt that he had the ability to do both... even the Twins would convert him to a starter because he would hang more zeroes. 

Yes... It does take another John Smoltz to ultimately answer the question because John is the only guy that pops into my mind as someone who was successful as a starter and then successful as a closer and then successful as a starter again.  

Question:  If Duran does both ala Smoltz does Duran get Smoltz 20 inch plate too?

[DocBauer]

A fascinating discussion. What's really interesting is that...despite some more vague theoretical viewpoints...so much of the back and forth has been about:

A} The value and idea of taking a high end RP and very talented arm in Duran and trying him as a SP...and...

B} Wondering if a very talented arm with high end potential should be moved to the pen.

Not exactly the same place in their careers, but they are entwined in this whole discussion,  and I think with good reason. 

Is a high end SP worth more...not speaking financially per se...than a high end RP? Yes. I don't think anyone can argue that point. The problem with trying Duran in that role is that part of the reason he was moved to the pen was because it was believed he could not only be great there, but he had previous injury concerns and it was thought he was just built for shorter and more frequent appearances. Meanwhile, Canterino and his rebuilt elbow are going to be stretched out...at least initially...as a SP to see if he can now maintain good health going forward as he's got real upside as a mid to top of the rotation starter. 

There is a TEMPTATION to want to see Duran's great stuff in the rotation to see if he works there. And at the same time, there's a strong TEMPTATION to want to see Canterino and his great stuff in the pen to see how he works there. 

Again, fascinating.

Do I think Duran should be moved to the rotation? My answer is no. I think the Twins would have already discussed it and tried it if they thought he could make the transition. Doesn't make them right! Now, if there was an easy, and ready made replacement for Duran's role in the pen, I might be more inclined to try it, knowing I could move him back to the pen, a role he's already proven he can do well.

Do I think Canterino should be moved to the pen? Not at this time. Even though he  won't be debuting as a SP until age 26-27yo instead of say 24-25yo, I'd still take those age 26-27 years to 32-33 as a high quality starter rather than being a reliever. I also know I have potential stud reliever in my back pocket if he has struggles or any further health issues in the rotation.

I'm not opposed to trying the Duran move if the FO, the Twins coaches and trainers all believe he could make the move physically by holding up health wise, as well as being able to maintain some sense of his velocity on a great IP basis. But I'd sure like to have someone else to replace him so I'm not weakening a strength on my team that already exists for a potentially failed experiment to strengthen a different spot. 

I'd like to think the Twins and all involved are smarter than I am. LOL I'd like to think  they've already discussed the temptation to see Duran in the rotation but have enough knowledge and experience to  foresee him breaking down and it not working. Otherwise, they  would be pretty limited in scope of thought.

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

A fascinating discussion. What's really interesting is that...despite some more vague theoretical viewpoints...so much of the back and forth has been about:

A} The value and idea of taking a high end RP and very talented arm in Duran and trying him as a SP...and...

B} Wondering if a very talented arm with high end potential should be moved to the pen.

Not exactly the same place in their careers, but they are entwined in this whole discussion,  and I think with good reason. 

Is a high end SP worth more...not speaking financially per se...than a high end RP? Yes. I don't think anyone can argue that point. The problem with trying Duran in that role is that part of the reason he was moved to the pen was because it was believed he could not only be great there, but he had previous injury concerns and it was thought he was just built for shorter and more frequent appearances. Meanwhile, Canterino and his rebuilt elbow are going to be stretched out...at least initially...as a SP to see if he can now maintain good health going forward as he's got real upside as a mid to top of the rotation starter. 

There is a TEMPTATION to want to see Duran's great stuff in the rotation to see if he works there. And at the same time, there's a strong TEMPTATION to want to see Canterino and his great stuff in the pen to see how he works there. 

Again, fascinating.

Do I think Duran should be moved to the rotation? My answer is no. I think the Twins would have already discussed it and tried it if they thought he could make the transition. Doesn't make them right! Now, if there was an easy, and ready made replacement for Duran's role in the pen, I might be more inclined to try it, knowing I could move him back to the pen, a role he's already proven he can do well.

Do I think Canterino should be moved to the pen? Not at this time. Even though he  won't be debuting as a SP until age 26-27yo instead of say 24-25yo, I'd still take those age 26-27 years to 32-33 as a high quality starter rather than being a reliever. I also know I have potential stud reliever in my back pocket if he has struggles or any further health issues in the rotation.

I'm not opposed to trying the Duran move if the FO, the Twins coaches and trainers all believe he could make the move physically by holding up health wise, as well as being able to maintain some sense of his velocity on a great IP basis. But I'd sure like to have someone else to replace him so I'm not weakening a strength on my team that already exists for a potentially failed experiment to strengthen a different spot. 

I'd like to think the Twins and all involved are smarter than I am. LOL I'd like to think  they've already discussed the temptation to see Duran in the rotation but have enough knowledge and experience to  foresee him breaking down and it not working. Otherwise, they  would be pretty limited in scope of thought.

Pushing Money to the side. 

I'm sure that I give the impression that I am fearless in regards to flexibility. 

I am... I think it is quite possible that Relievers can be starters and starters can be relievers because it's throwing a baseball after all and these guys are good at what they do.  

I also think that a 2B can play 3B and an OF can play 1B because it's baseball after all and these guys are good at what they do. 

This may shock some but in regards to the best in the business at a position or role. I am anti-flexibility. 

I'm sure that Nolan Arenado can play good SS if the need arises but at 3B he is the best in the business... So lock him in at 3B. Let other guys move around. 

I feel the same way about Duran... As a relief pitcher... he is one of the best in the game so lock him in. Don't mess around with starting.   

Julien... move him wherever he is needed to get his bat in the lineup. 

[C-Gangster]

Heck no he is our closing pitcher and is ment to be our closing pitcher

 

[Otaknam]

On 3/4/2024 at 7:18 AM, Doctor Gast said:

There have been a few successful RPs that are transitioning into SPs this season, A J Puk (MIA) & D L Hall (MIL) to name a couple.  I look at our situation & doubt we'll get that 2nd postseason SP. A trade doesn't seem possible anymore, FA is out of the question, I don't trust a deadline acquisition is a good idea. There's hope that Ryan & or Ober will take that big step, but what if they don't? We need a 2nd postseason SP to advance in the postseason.

I'm not for switching Duran to the rotation but I'm entertaining that idea now. Let's say halfway through the season Ryan & Ober haven't progressed enough to fill that spot & Jax, Steward, Thielbar, & Canterino have established themselves as high-leverage RPs with Varland available to pitch there for the postseason, Would you be open for Duran to transition into that 2nd postseason SP? IMO you wouldn't have to convince Duran. Texas won the World Series with a poor BP. Would you risk it? I'm curious what everybody thinks.

No! You can’t move a successful high leverage closer to starting pitcher in the middle of the season. I hate giving up top prospects, but if the team is doing well but a frontline starter is the missing piece for a serious World Series run, they will use prospects to make the trade, even for a half season. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 3/6/2024 at 10:01 AM, chpettit19 said:

Him developing and working his way towards being a major league starter isn't "wasting" innings to me. They're not going to put him in the pen to start the year and then try to transition him to starter in the middle of the year once they decide if they want to use him in the major league pen or not. That's not a good development plan at all. He's building up to be a starter now. Asking his arm/body to build up and get used to throwing more pitches every 5th or 6th day then switching it to being able to handle throwing fewer pitches at higher effort every 2 or 3 days and then switching back to the original more pitches every 5th or 6th day isn't how you save his arm. They're only going to make that transition to the pen once during the year. And it won't be at the start of the year.

They can get him 15-20 starts in the minors without being overly concerned about his inning total and still use him in the pen later in the year. If the pen is as good as advertised they may not need him anyways.

We aren’t on same page, obviously.

Not sure where the reliever/starter/reliever scenario comes from?

I have very little confidence he’ll throw 100 innings this year - my opinion.

If he’s as good as his billing and he starts for any length of time in the minors…..,18 starts. He’s potentially thrown 90 innings by early to mid-August……,,my. concern is they are “shutting him down” by September. No crystal ball but he’s shown ZERO durability since he’s been drafted.

Maybe they treat him like Raya & never let him see more than a dozen to 15 guys in a game? Maybe that works to preserve him?

If he has good to great stuff, just want him available to use the stuff to help the big club get wins at some point.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

On 3/5/2024 at 5:47 PM, Doctor Gast said:

Looks like almost everybody wants Duran to stay in the BP. I've been big on Cabrera, he has some really great stuff but has had control problems. I thought it'd be worth a chance to trade for him. This spring he seems to have found it so his asking price, more than likely has gone up.

Cabrera has never been on the table. He's been a global top 100 or top 50 prospect since 2020, his asking price has been sky high that entire time. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 3/6/2024 at 10:35 AM, Riverbrian said:

When considering the question posed in this thread. I think it's important to consider the value difference between a starter and reliever. 

We live in a baseball world (created by MLB GM's value assessments) where Sean Manaea coming off a 4.44 ERA in 2023 and a 4.91 ERA in 2022 and Ryan Pressly consistently one of the top closers in baseball signed. Each signed for essentially the same years and dollar amount in the same off-season. 

Twins pitchers threw a total of 1,451 Innings in the 2023.

Starters accounted for 922 of those innings. 

That leaves 529 innings for the relievers. 

5 Starting pitching slots = 184 innings per starting pitcher slot

8 Relief pitcher slots = 66 innings per relief pitcher slot. 

Look again at what Manaea recently signed for and what Ryan Pressly signed for and it wouldn't be a stretch to theorize that the front offices are paying for innings and they should... because starters are throwing 3 times more innings than a relief pitcher throws. Sure you can argue High Leverage/Low Leverage as justification and I'll concede a value difference but I'm just going to counter that performance is important each and every inning no matter what leverage you assign to it. 

Next Year Joe Ryan and Jhoan Duran will be entering into the 1st year of arbitration and they are both on track to reach free agency in 2028.

Between Ryan and Duran, under the scenario that each will continue to pitch like they have pitched to date. Does anybody want to take a guess on who will get rewarded more in the three upcoming years of arbitration or who signs the bigger free agent deal? 

I'll go first... I'm going to guess Joe Ryan will be paid more. 

While I love Joe Ryan, I'm a big Joe Ryan fan so I don't want to say anything negative about him... however... in my opinion... I think Duran is a much better pitcher than Joe is. 

Front offices are paying for innings. Arbitrators are rewarding innings. The more zero's hung... more wins.

I'd like to see our best pitchers get more innings.  

Anyway... why you are all discussing the merits of the possibility of Duran starting. You may want to consider value to not only the team looking for zero's on the scoreboard but also consider the value to the pitcher looking for zero's on a contract. 

 

 

 

For the quantity of outs he gets, it’s tough to say Duran is better. He may be more worthwhile though because he can have a big affect on 55-60 games per year. ……..a bunch of different first 8 inning scenarios can get the Team in a position where they put the game in Duran’s hands in the 9th. ………….i.e. he may come into a game for a save after Ryan gave up 5 runs in 4 innings ………Team scored a bunch of runs and now everyone expects Duran to perform!!

High leverage nearly every inning pitched.

I get every inning counts and the opposition is trying to score with every at bat. That said, the 2nd or 3rd inning with a tie game isn’t the same level of stress as a 1 run lead in the 9th.

Both have value……..Ryan’s expectation of success is maybe 60-65% of his starts ………Duran’s expectation of success is closer to 90% as the CLOSER.

Ryan may get paid more but who’s more valuable?

[Jeff K]

I have a long and technical response.  No.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

For the quantity of outs he gets, it’s tough to say Duran is better. He may be more worthwhile though because he can have a big affect on 55-60 games per year. ……..a bunch of different first 8 inning scenarios can get the Team in a position where they put the game in Duran’s hands in the 9th. ………….i.e. he may come into a game for a save after Ryan gave up 5 runs in 4 innings ………Team scored a bunch of runs and now everyone expects Duran to perform!!

High leverage nearly every inning pitched.

I get every inning counts and the opposition is trying to score with every at bat. That said, the 2nd or 3rd inning with a tie game isn’t the same level of stress as a 1 run lead in the 9th.

Both have value……..Ryan’s expectation of success is maybe 60-65% of his starts ………Duran’s expectation of success is closer to 90% as the CLOSER.

Ryan may get paid more but who’s more valuable?

Just so there isn't any misunderstandings with my response... I've stated earlier that I'd leave Duran in the bullpen because he is one of the best in the game at what he does. We may be taking different paths to get on the same page but I think we agree.  

To answer your last question. If Joe Ryan gets paid more... he is determined by those offering the contract to be more valuable. Value can be assessed in many ways including replaceability.  Joe Ryan may be paid more because it's harder to find a capable 180 inning guy than a dominating closer. Every team has a closer in waiting. If Duran converts to a starter. Jax or Stewart just might step into the closer role and we still have a capable closer getting the job done. Might not be as good but not as good doesn't mean not capable.

Value is a funny thing but, it's pretty simple in my mind. Whatever someone is willing to pay you... that's your value and front offices are generally more willing to pay that 180 inning guy.  

To answer the entirety of your post. I understand everything that you are saying. Not even really arguing what you are saying. A starter who is healthy all year will impact 33 games while a reliever who is healthy all year will impact double the amount of games. Jax pitched in 71 games, Pagan pitched in 66 games, Duran pitched in 59 games (27 saves - 3 wins - 6 losses and 23 whatevers).

That is why I'll never minimize the importance of ANY spot in the bullpen because a good healthy bullpen guy impacts a fairly high percentage of games. I'll even add to your leverage point. The closer role is even higher leverage than the high leverage stat because when the closer blows a lead it's game over. His teammates can't pick him up with a 3 run rally because the game is 9 innings and he just pitched the last inning sending everyone to the showers. 

With all that said... I understand the leverage difference and the influence of appearing in more games. However... Every Inning thrown has the potential for a zero or a crooked number. The guy who can hang more zeroes is always going to be more valuable regardless of the leverage assessed to each moment. Ryan may only appear in 33 games while Duran Appears in 60. But Ryan is going to throw 3 times as many innings and his performance in those innings is going to determine leverage for the bullpen to follow.  

Teams have to get through approximately 1,400 innings a season. You need to hang zeroes in as many of those innings as possible.