Lesson From "WarGames"

[Kirby Killebrew]

In 1983, the movie "WarGames" is about a teenager who, thinking he has hacked into a games company computer, actually hacks into the Department of Defense computer that controls the United States nuclear arsenal.  He initiates "Global Thermonuclear War" and the computer seeks to begin World War III.  However, after going through dozens of scenarios, the computer shuts down with the words, "the only winning move is not to play."

The ending of the movie reminds me of the Minnesota Twins 2023-24 offseason.  Among our fanbase, there is much hand-wringing, teeth-gnashing and general angst over the lack of significant free-agent signings or major trades. 

There is general understanding among the fans that, given the major reduction in '24 payroll because of the uncertainty of a local TV deal, there is not going to be a big free-agent signing.

That leaves the trade route, with the number one priority a top-of-the-line starting pitcher.  We did this a year ago with Pablo Lopez.  The price?  The American League batting champion.  

The cost will be no less this year, except the tab will likely be one or more of the Twins top young talent -- Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, etc.  

Are we ready to sacrifice these guys for a pitcher, who are always day-to-day because of the fragility of arms?  I'd love to have another Pablo Lopez but I don't think I'm willing to sacrifice a combination of Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, quality veterans, etc. to get him.

The last time we, as a fanbase, clamored this loudly to make a trade was the 2022 trade deadline.  In desperation, the FO traded for Jorge Lopez and Tyler Mahle.  A grand total of five wins and seven saves later, they are nowhere to be found while Yennier Cano (2.11 ERA last season), Spencer Steer (.271, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 15 SB) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (.270, 13 HR, 37 RBI as a part-time player) are doing quite nicely in non-Twins uniforms.  

I'm not against a trade but as it stands now, our current roster is the favorite to win the division.  I'm quite willing to go into the playoffs with Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as our starting pitchers.

When it comes to making a major trade now, the winning move might be not to play.

Your thoughts?

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

This very well may be true. Our number of starting pitchers is pretty low, however.  We could certainly use some depth.

Not one of the players signed from the cast-off crew looks promising. Looking at their stats they are all long shots to be a positive boost to any MLB team.

Frustrating. This is an unusual path toward success. 

[ashbury]

How about a nice game of chess?

[Parfigliano]

Been saying all along go with with what we have.  

[Kirby Killebrew]

7 hours ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

This very well may be true. Our number of starting pitchers is pretty low, however.  We could certainly use some depth.

Not one of the players signed from the cast-off crew looks promising. Looking at their stats they are all long shots to be a positive boost to any MLB team.

Frustrating. This is an unusual path toward success. 

Agreed on the number of starting pitchers.  Chances of the five starters each posting 32 starts is about the same as a soap bubble going through a meat grinder.

Torn between ...

* sacrificing great young talent for a top-shelf pitcher

* overpaying via trade for a mediocre backend starter

* hoping that someone among Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Matt Canterino etc. is a steady MLB-caliber starter as a rookie

[Kirby Killebrew]

Just now, Kirby Killebrew said:

Agreed on the number of starting pitchers.  Chances of the five starters each posting 32 starts is about the same as a soap bubble going through a meat grinder.

Torn between ...

* sacrificing great young talent for a top-shelf pitcher

* overpaying via trade for a mediocre backend starter

* hoping that someone among Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Matt Canterino etc. is a steady MLB-caliber starter as a rookie

I think we should try the rookie route and hope for a miracle before we overpay via trade.  

 

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, Kirby Killebrew said:

In 1983, the movie "WarGames" is about a teenager who, thinking he has hacked into a games company computer, actually hacks into the Department of Defense computer that controls the United States nuclear arsenal.  He initiates "Global Thermonuclear War" and the computer seeks to begin World War III.  However, after going through dozens of scenarios, the computer shuts down with the words, "the only winning move is not to play."

The ending of the movie reminds me of the Minnesota Twins 2023-24 offseason.  Among our fanbase, there is much hand-wringing, teeth-gnashing and general angst over the lack of significant free-agent signings or major trades. 

There is general understanding among the fans that, given the major reduction in '24 payroll because of the uncertainty of a local TV deal, there is not going to be a big free-agent signing.

That leaves the trade route, with the number one priority a top-of-the-line starting pitcher.  We did this a year ago with Pablo Lopez.  The price?  The American League batting champion.  

The cost will be no less this year, except the tab will likely be one or more of the Twins top young talent -- Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, etc.  

Are we ready to sacrifice these guys for a pitcher, who are always day-to-day because of the fragility of arms?  I'd love to have another Pablo Lopez but I don't think I'm willing to sacrifice a combination of Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, quality veterans, etc. to get him.

The last time we, as a fanbase, clamored this loudly to make a trade was the 2022 trade deadline.  In desperation, the FO traded for Jorge Lopez and Tyler Mahle.  A grand total of five wins and seven saves later, they are nowhere to be found while Yennier Cano (2.11 ERA last season), Spencer Steer (.271, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 15 SB) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (.270, 13 HR, 37 RBI as a part-time player) are doing quite nicely in non-Twins uniforms.  

I'm not against a trade but as it stands now, our current roster is the favorite to win the division.  I'm quite willing to go into the playoffs with Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as our starting pitchers.

When it comes to making a major trade now, the winning move might be not to play.

Your thoughts?

 

Not trading assets & going into the playoffs with Lopez - Ryan - Ober is just fine with me as well……… Paddack & Varland available for 2-3 innings as early as the 4th in any of the 3 starts seems like a fine alternative to a lofty priced “#2”……..keeping productive, low cost assets, makes perfect sense! I do think moving some salary via trade, to enable the Team to sign a guy like Clevinger, is even a better alternative.

BTW, I live in Cinti & watched Steer shine nearly all year - voted their MVP in ‘23……..he’s the RH hitting prototype LF everyone wants to spend $$$ on to fill our supposed void.

[Parfigliano]

29 minutes ago, Kirby Killebrew said:

Agreed on the number of starting pitchers.  Chances of the five starters each posting 32 starts is about the same as a soap bubble going through a meat grinder.

Torn between ...

* sacrificing great young talent for a top-shelf pitcher

* overpaying via trade for a mediocre backend starter

* hoping that someone among Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Matt Canterino etc. is a steady MLB-caliber starter as a rookie

Go with what we have.  Get 3 months into the season and backend starters are still available.  They are always available.  Catch lightning with a young arm or two and maybe just maybe the teams pitching needs will not be as worrisome as people think they are today.

[DocBauer]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

How about a nice game of chess?

I can't LOL harder than an emoji for this one!

[DocBauer]

On the surface, the 2022 trades made sense. Unfortunately, the Twins got burned.

Doesn't mean it was wrong at the time. Nobody has a crystal ball to see a TJ injury, or a personal/emotional issue, etc, etc.

No matter what Petty does, or Arraez does, I'd say the Twins won both those trades...and the Odorizzi trade...unless Petty becomes a stud SP. 

You don't always win deals.

But I tend to agree with your sentiment. Right now, I'm focused on the edges. Sign a reclamation project for the rotation for depth on a milb deal. Try to add one decent arm for the pen to compete and offer depth. Is there a RH bat that slips through the cracks to add? 

I know there are a lot of opinions that just winning the ALC and making the playoffs is not enough. And I get that. And I'm on board with that. But I also don't want to trade away a top 50 prospect, or 2 or 3, who might lead this already solid team and return this year and the next. 

Personally, despite not being a gambling man, I'd bet on Rodriguez figuring out how to be patent AND aggressive and would keep him, and Lee. I'd try hard to keep Festa and Raya, and try to trade from additional depth if I could, or run with what I have for now, again, adding to the edges.

Did anyone see what Arizona did last year? Nope. I actually love about 90% of our team, with interesting depth. In his brief ML career, Varland had been solid to great in about every start except his last 3 last year. So because Rocco loves him as a BP option he shouldn't be a SP option again? Short sighted! 

MAYBE Celestino makes a difference. And he could easily in the pen. But I kinda understand pitting him in the rotation at St Paul initially. 

The FO has pulled a rabbit out of the hat multiple times with trades for Odorizzi,  and Gray, and Lopez,  If they can do that ONE MORE TIME with Polanco, Kepler, and/or prospects as they've done before, they will exceed aspirations yet again, and keep the structure if the pipeline of talent in play. 

If they don't, we're going to have to believe they have enough belief in their depth to make noise beyond the ALC in the playoffs and ramp up for 2025 and beyond.

[nclahammer]

What a terrific analogy (and 80s movie reference on top of that.) The Twins still have assets to make a deal happen if/when needed, but right now loaded with depth offensively and have many pieces in place on the pitching staff.     One of the top lessons learned from last year, and that accounted for much of their success, you can't have too much depth.

[IndianaTwin]

17 hours ago, ashbury said:

How about a nice game of chess?

<Hand shake>

<Double hair tousle>

I need to track this down for a re-watch. Originally a date night for me and the future Mrs. IT. 

[Kirby Killebrew]

On 1/27/2024 at 10:03 PM, JD-TWINS said:

Not trading assets & going into the playoffs with Lopez - Ryan - Ober is just fine with me as well……… Paddack & Varland available for 2-3 innings as early as the 4th in any of the 3 starts seems like a fine alternative to a lofty priced “#2”……..keeping productive, low cost assets, makes perfect sense! I do think moving some salary via trade, to enable the Team to sign a guy like Clevinger, is even a better alternative.

BTW, I live in Cinti & watched Steer shine nearly all year - voted their MVP in ‘23……..he’s the RH hitting prototype LF everyone wants to spend $$$ on to fill our supposed void.

Completely agree on moving some salary via trade if possible.  

[Kirby Killebrew]

On 1/27/2024 at 5:58 PM, ashbury said:

How about a nice game of chess?

Well played :)

[Kirby Killebrew]

On 1/27/2024 at 10:17 PM, Parfigliano said:

Go with what we have.  Get 3 months into the season and backend starters are still available.  They are always available.  Catch lightning with a young arm or two and maybe just maybe the teams pitching needs will not be as worrisome as people think they are today.

That would be an ideal solution!

 

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Killebrew said:

Well played :)

Thanks, mate.

[nicksaviking]

If they go into next year's postseason without another top of the rotation arm, I'm going to be pretty disappointed. There are a couple of guys I wouldn't trade, but I'm more than confident the Twins can make a deal with some combination out of all the others.

And I never once regretted the Lopez for Arraez trade. Not even when Arraez was hot early in the year and Lopez was merely average.

[Kirby Killebrew]

On 1/27/2024 at 11:50 PM, DocBauer said:

On the surface, the 2022 trades made sense. Unfortunately, the Twins got burned.

Doesn't mean it was wrong at the time. Nobody has a crystal ball to see a TJ injury, or a personal/emotional issue, etc, etc.

No matter what Petty does, or Arraez does, I'd say the Twins won both those trades...and the Odorizzi trade...unless Petty becomes a stud SP. 

You don't always win deals.

But I tend to agree with your sentiment. Right now, I'm focused on the edges. Sign a reclamation project for the rotation for depth on a milb deal. Try to add one decent arm for the pen to compete and offer depth. Is there a RH bat that slips through the cracks to add? 

I know there are a lot of opinions that just winning the ALC and making the playoffs is not enough. And I get that. And I'm on board with that. But I also don't want to trade away a top 50 prospect, or 2 or 3, who might lead this already solid team and return this year and the next. 

Personally, despite not being a gambling man, I'd bet on Rodriguez figuring out how to be patent AND aggressive and would keep him, and Lee. I'd try hard to keep Festa and Raya, and try to trade from additional depth if I could, or run with what I have for now, again, adding to the edges.

Did anyone see what Arizona did last year? Nope. I actually love about 90% of our team, with interesting depth. In his brief ML career, Varland had been solid to great in about every start except his last 3 last year. So because Rocco loves him as a BP option he shouldn't be a SP option again? Short sighted! 

MAYBE Celestino makes a difference. And he could easily in the pen. But I kinda understand pitting him in the rotation at St Paul initially. 

The FO has pulled a rabbit out of the hat multiple times with trades for Odorizzi,  and Gray, and Lopez,  If they can do that ONE MORE TIME with Polanco, Kepler, and/or prospects as they've done before, they will exceed aspirations yet again, and keep the structure if the pipeline of talent in play. 

If they don't, we're going to have to believe they have enough belief in their depth to make noise beyond the ALC in the playoffs and ramp up for 2025 and beyond.

Good logic, Doc, agree with all.  Only concern I'd have is trading Kepler because of our lack of outfield depth.  I'd be OK with trading Polanco or Julien because we have two second basemen, although I'd cry if we traded Julien.  I think he's going to be a great tablesetter and it looks like he's made significant progress on defense.  

[sampleSizeOfOne]

On 1/27/2024 at 5:58 PM, ashbury said:

How about a nice game of chess?

Tic-tac-toe.

Number of players: 0.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

PS. Where can i find a radio controlled pterodactyl?