Twins Sitting Pretty in Early 2024 Betting Lines

[Nash Walker]

The Twins haven’t made an impactful move yet this offseason, but the betting market paints an encouraging picture for the club’s 2024. Let's explore that landscape.

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

These lines are drawn from FanDuel Sportsbook, as of Jan. 15.

1. O/U Win Total: 86.5 wins
The Twins finished with 87 victories last year, in a historically bad division. The early total has them hovering around that number again in 2024. In the context of the American League and the Central in particular, though, the Twins are in a pleasant spot. Always a popular bet, the Yankees have their usual bloated total of 93.5, meant to pull in money on both sides of the number. Houston (92.5) and Texas (89.5) rule the west, while Baltimore (87.5) and Toronto (86.5) jockey with New York in the east. Tampa Bay (84.5) lurks as a constant threat. 

These lines are extremely tepid… and then there’s the vaunted central. Detroit (78.5) and Cleveland (77.5) are, by the odds, expected to finish below .500. Due in no small part to the ineptitude of much of this division, the AL flat-out lacks the juggernauts we see in the National League. Both the Dodgers (104.5) and Atlanta (100.5) open extremely high, while Philadelphia (90.5) looks to build on back-to-back final four appearances. There is no total higher than 93.5 in the AL. Barring a frenzy of activity for a certain team or two, the AL side of the bracket should be wide-open again in 2024.

2. Twins to win the American League: +850 (T-4th)
This free range nature of the league is evidenced in the odds. The Yankees, who missed the playoffs last year, are the favorites (+410), followed by the Astros (+430), and defending champion Rangers (+480). The upstart Orioles and Twins are tied for the fourth-best marks (+850). The difference between the Yankees and Twins is just +440, while the difference between the favored Dodgers (+180) and fourth-place Cardinals (+1500) in the NL is +1320. That is a monster discrepancy showing the contrast in leagues, but also that the Dodgers are sure to pull bettors’ money after signing Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. 

There’s only one way to win the pennant and/or the World Series: make the playoffs! This is partly why the Twins have optimistic odds to represent the AL in the Fall Classic. They have the best chance to win their division (-130), compared to the Yankees (+130) and Astros (+130), and have the biggest gap in win total between the first- and second-place teams in the division (eight). Playing in the AL Central is a great luxury and there's zero notion, by the odds or otherwise, that the competition will be much better this season. 

3. Pablo López to win the American League Cy Young Award: +1100 (4th)
Pablo López carried a 4.24 ERA into mid-July in his first season with the Twins, adding fuel to the fire of fans who remained irate that Luis Arraez was hitting .400 for the Marlins. As usual, the numbers under the hood won the day. López’s ERA was almost a full run higher than his FIP (3.33) through his first 19 starts for Minnesota. From Jul. 20 on, he posted the exact same FIP, but his ERA fell to 2.79 over his final 13 starts of the regular season. The beauty of numbers!

He made his first All-Star Game, stayed healthy for 194 innings, finished second in the AL in strikeouts (234), and lowered his career Postseason ERA to 1.53 with one good start against Toronto and a dazzling one wherein he struck out seven over seven scoreless innings in a must-win Game 2 of the ALDS in Houston. López will still only be 28 years old when Opening Day arrives. Only Gerrit Cole (+500), Kevin Gausman (+650), and Framber Valdez (+750) have better odds to take home the AL Cy Young Award in 2024. 

What do you think of these very early odds for the Twins in 2024? Does it make you more or less hopeful? Anxious? Angry about the lack of moves? Let us know in the comments!

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[Parfigliano]

Wife and I are going to Vegas 1st week of Feb for a concert.  I've been planning on playing that over.

[nicksaviking]

57 minutes ago, Nash Walker said:

What do you think of these very early odds for the Twins in 2024? Does it make you more or less hopeful? Anxious? Angry about the lack of moves? Let us know in the comments!

 

Those odds sound about right, as noted, of the AL contenders, the Twins will have the least amount of competition. The entire AL East could be a contender (doubtful Red Sox) and there should be three contenders in the AL West. If the Twins just hold the line they should be in the playoffs. That said, those odds are based on the unknown of the regular season. Once the playoffs do start, and the chaff is cut from the other divisions leaving only the Twins and five other teams, the Twins odds will decrease dramatically with this hypothetical current squad.

So anxious, yes, angry no. Waiting for the big move is pretty much the MO for the last half decade. Their real odds, come playoff time, won't be very high until/unless they trade for Sonny Gray's replacement.

[Rik19753]

Wow, Tampa at 84.5 seems super low... if I were a betting man I would hammer the over on that.

 

[tony&rodney]

Last year my range was plus or minus five from 82 wins. This year it may be too early to guess, but i will say plus or minus five from 88 wins. I'm taking the over on 86.5 victories.

At this time, the offense looks solid and there is good depth as well. The pitching is always an unknown but I'm good with our starting five and bullpen. A big addition would be nice but there is a concern about the cost given for any transaction.

[mikelink45]

Sports books are meant to get you to bet - they are not good predictors.  The Twins will win their division - so they are fourth, meaning a non-division leader will rank ahead of them. 

[MGX]

Interesting, overall, the odds seems reasonable.

IMO the AL Central is a better division this year & I expect improvement from Kansas City, Cleveland & especially Detroit.

Detroit had a similar season to the Twins last year...

At the end of July the Twins were 41-42 & the Tigers were 35-46. Both teams played much better over the final 3 months the Twins 46-33 & the Tigers 43-38.

The Twins will need to improve from within as we haven't added much to our roster & both the Royals & Tigers have. The good news is our young core group of position players have the talent to do that along with a bounce back season from Correa & Buxton (he may only play 80 games, but if he hits closer to his career norms that would be a boost) could make this a very good offensive team. With Gray gone our starting pitching isn't likely to be as good, but a much better offense & hopefully an improved bullpen (may be our biggest question mark to start) can get us to another title.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Remember the Twins had the easiest schedule in the majors the second half of the season last year. So naturally many of the individual stats of the Twins improved the second half of 2023, since the Twins played against inferior opponents for the second half of 2023.

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, MGX said:

Interesting, overall, the odds seems reasonable.

IMO the AL Central is a better division this year & I expect improvement from Kansas City, Cleveland & especially Detroit.

Detroit had a similar season to the Twins last year...

At the end of July the Twins were 41-42 & the Tigers were 35-46. Both teams played much better over the final 3 months the Twins 46-33 & the Tigers 43-38.

The Twins will need to improve from within as we haven't added much to our roster & both the Royals & Tigers have. The good news is our young core group of position players have the talent to do that along with a bounce back season from Correa & Buxton (he may only play 80 games, but if he hits closer to his career norms that would be a boost) could make this a very good offensive team. With Gray gone our starting pitching isn't likely to be as good, but a much better offense & hopefully an improved bullpen (may be our biggest question mark to start) can get us to another title.

Posted earlier about the plus/minus in the Central Division and it disappeared. This is generalized thought about a common theme from others about the “improved” Division.

Tigers…….young talented guys that are getting better, granted. Lost Rodriguez who went 13-9 with 3.30 ERA. HUGE LOSS………gained Kenta Maeda & Jack Flarhty who totaled a 14-17 record with a combined 4.60 ERA in ‘23……….if both Maeda & Flarhty go 10-5 each, the Team only gains 6 wins total over Rodriguez 2023

.…………..

K.C. added Lugo & Wacha, both major upgrades! They traded Chapman before the deadline & have now added a good reliever. They will be better (Merrifield still unsigned?) but I don’t think 20 plus games better. Reasonable?

……………

Whote Sox don’t seem to be in the mix……….Cleveland’s Managerial change will not help them - they are without Josh Bell all year……..pitching will be more healthy but run scoring capability has not leaped forward so they remain challenged.

……………..

Twins lost Gray & Maeda…..14-16 record collectively. Not Gray’s issue, often! However, those are the “outcomes” that need to be replaced. With an expected uptick (not a leap forward) from CC - Buxton & even Vazquez things are a bit better in ‘24. Lewis - Julien - Wallner for a full season can’t be a step backward! Honestly, I’d take Paddack & Varland going forward v. Maeda & Flarhty in a rotation.

Martin - Miranda - Farmer - Larnach - Gordon……going to need a couple of these guys to step up…….am assuming Polanco is moved??

I don’t think, w/o some rotation upgrade or offensive upgrade such as a depth piece at 1B & 3B, Twins win 95 games. I do think this team can cruise to 88 wins w/o much good fortune. All subjective!!

Last year’s team was 14-5 v. Astros-Diamondbacks-Rangers-Phillies, the last 4 standing.

 

[Aerodeliria]

1) If the Twins do nothing, I predict they will underperform and struggle to be .500.

2) If the Twins do nothing, Detroit will overtake them.

The Tigers have a mindset on winning and have been making moves to solidify their team. The Twins have been looking in dumpsters to find a reclamation project and found one so far, but I wouldn't interrupt my afternoon nap to celebrate that pick-up.

I normally don't put much faith in ESPN, but in this case they are right. Minnesota's off-season score? D-

[Supfin99]

So the Twins have to replace 2 pitchers that had a combined record of below .500, have Paddock, Varland, Canterino, Lewis, Wallner and Julien for whole season, Correa and Burton really can’t do worse and yet the Twins will win 10 less games this season?  Got it.