Manaea off the board

[stringer bell]

According to mlbtraderumors.com, Sean Manaea has agreed to terms with the Mets. Two years $28M. Paying that much for players like Manaea makes no sense to me. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/mets-in-agreement-on-two-year-deal-with-sean-manaea.html

[ashbury]

He won't have to face Mets batters anymore, so the 7.04 ERA he put up against them last year comes off the top.  😄

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

According to mlbtraderumors.com, Sean Manaea has agreed to terms with the Mets. Two years $28M. Paying that much for players like Manaea makes no sense to me. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/mets-in-agreement-on-two-year-deal-with-sean-manaea.html

Right, they got Scherzer and Verlander off of their books so they can employ Manaea? 

If your rotation options are so bad that you need to pay Manaea, you might as well just go with the guys in your system regardless how good or ready they are and shop for lotto ticket arms later in the offseason. 

[tony&rodney]

The rallying cry all offseason has been for the Twins to add a starting pitcher. When people cringe on the deal that Ohtani or Yamamoto received, consider the prices for Manaea and some of the others. Good grief, at least the Twins have stayed away. Varland looks better and better with every signing.

It's Kirby, Gilbert, Luzardo, Cabrera, or bust.

[stringer bell]

I don’t think a bona fide #2 starter will be acquired during the off season. I’m starting believe the Twins will try to find a hidden jewel, maybe someone who labored with a bad team, like Colorado or the Athletics. 

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I don’t think a bona fide #2 starter will be acquired during the off season. I’m starting believe the Twins will try to find a hidden jewel, maybe someone who labored with a bad team, like Colorado or the Athletics. 

Kyle Freeland

[ashbury]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Kyle Freeland

In 2022 he looked as though he just needed to get away from Coors Field.  In 2023, though, it was consistently bad wherever he pitched.  What do you base hope on?   He's pretty expensive for 3 years if he can't turn it around.  BTV assigns him negative value, so at least he won't cost anything much to acquire - but what have we got if we acquire him?

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, ashbury said:

what have we got if we acquire him?

A lefthanded 4th starter. He had an ERA+ around 100 the last 3 seasons.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Kyle Freeland

Kyle Freeland had a K% of 13.9% last year. The next worst pitcher was 15.7%. 

I'd only hire Kyle Freeland to serve up spring training fielding practice for my infielders.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

He won't have to face Mets batters anymore, so the 7.04 ERA he put up against them last year comes off the top.  😄

As a Met fan...boo.

[DJL44]

36 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Kyle Freeland had a K% of 13.9% last year. The next worst pitcher was 15.7%. 

Playing in the location where it is most difficult to strike batters out and for the organization that is the least analytical in the major leagues. Remember when Verlander joined the Astros and they unlocked additional velocity and spin? That potential is there. The Rockies are still in the "pitch-to-contact" era.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Playing in the location where it is most difficult to strike batters out and for the organization that is the least analytical in the major leagues. Remember when Verlander joined the Astros and they unlocked additional velocity and spin? That potential is there. The Rockies are still in the "pitch-to-contact" era.

Striking out batters isn’t harder in Colorado, it’s the fly balls that are the issue. He is the worst in the league at missing bats by a mile. He can’t get strikeouts because he throws an 88 MPH sinker and his velocity has nose dived in recent years. An 88 MPH four seamer isn’t going to get many more swings and misses.
 

Verlander was in a HOF trajectory before he was traded. The Astro’s just got him to go from a top 5% strikeout starter to a top 2% starter. A similar improvement for Freeland still puts him near the bottom of the league in strikeouts. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Striking out batters isn’t harder in Colorado, it’s the fly balls that are the issue. 

The ball breaks less in Colorado due to the thin air. It's a good place for a fastball/changeup pitcher because a slider doesn't slide nearly as well.

[harmony55]

One comp for Sean Manaea might be Anthony DeSclafani, who shared time with Manaea in the San Francisco rotation last year.

With the Giants in 2023 Manaea posted 1.1 fWAR over 117.2 innings in 37 appearances, including 10 starts. DeSclafani posted 1.0 fWAR over 99.2 innings in 19 appearances, including 18 starts.

The big difference is that Manaea finished strong after a slow start while concerning injuries undermined DeSclafani's season after a stellar first month.

Manaea landed the two-year, $28 million contract with the New York Mets while DeSclafani, who has since been traded to the Seattle Mariners, has one year and $12 million remaining on his contract.

[chpettit19]

17 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The ball breaks less in Colorado due to the thin air. It's a good place for a fastball/changeup pitcher because a slider doesn't slide nearly as well.

This actually isn't true. Breaking balls are the best way to go at altitude. Sliders and curveballs perform better at altitude than fastballs and changeups. The Rockies should be chasing all the high spin, high velocity breaking balls they can find.