Twins Expect to Add Starting Pitcher This Offseason

[DJL44]

30 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

So you want the Pohlads to run a loss on a different one of their businesses, to finance running a loss on the Twins?  Feels like the sort of thing successful businesses avoid whenever possible.

This would be like saying you don't want to take out a second mortgage on your house to pay for the new Porsche you want (which is the responsible choice), but then emptying your 401k to pay for it instead.

You're not understanding. If the Twins need a loan they can loan the money to themselves and charge interest to themselves which can be used to avoid taxes on their income from running the Twins. It's one way to tap into equity without selling the team.

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

What's the market advantage though?  It really only comes into play in TV/radio contract, right?  As best I can tell from some quick googling, the Brewers TV contract used to be just above $20M, but since 2021 has been $34M.  The Twins just finished up a 12 year contract worth $55M.  $30M sounds like a huge amount, until you realize only half of that goes to payroll--so only $15M.  Given the differences in team position going into different years (in 2018, for example, the Brewers won 96 games, the Twins won 78--makes sense the Brewers would look to maintain a higher payroll given their hope to compete and no revenue reductions), it's not that hard to understand why the Brewers would occasionally outspend the Twins.

https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/milwaukee-brewers-local-tv-rights-2021-fox-sports-sinclair-bally-rsn/?zephr_sso_ott=AIMkwI

The Brewers have done a much better job connecting with fans which gets 500,000 more people to Brewers games than the Twins despite the Twins being able to draw from a metro population roughly twice as large. In 2023 the Brewers drew 2.5M fans out of a population of 1.5M. The Twins drew 2M fans from a population of 3M.

I think a lot of that is the Brewers are trying harder to win than the Twins.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

You're not understanding. If the Twins need a loan they can loan the money to themselves and charge interest to themselves which can be used to avoid taxes on their income from running the Twins. It's one way to tap into equity without selling the team.

This is insanity.  You're saying if I take $20 out of my wallet and give it to my wife to put in her wallet, but also charge her interest, I'm somehow making money?  If they're taking money out of one of their businesses to cover a revenue shortfall in another business, they have not increased their overall family revenue.  That's what we're talking about here--the Pohlads run their businesses to make profit; they're not going to suddenly start incurring losses by choice, and they're certainly not going to engage in pushing money across different entities just for fun.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

you don't want to take out a second mortgage on your house to pay for the new Porsche you want (which is the responsible choice), but then emptying your 401k to pay for it instead.

Do it if you can order the one you want and not have to settle for some crappy color. Enjoy the Porsche, the 401K will just be sitting there when you die.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

This is insanity.  You're saying if I take $20 out of my wallet and give it to my wife to put in her wallet, but also charge her interest, I'm somehow making money? 

This is another great idea. I never thought of that. i wonder if my wife will catch on? On second thought, I'm keeping the money. .... and so should the Pohlads.

[wabene]

5 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Spending to market share is irrelevant to your point about wanting them to spend more when they have a chance to win.  They've done it, for the past 2 years, with record payrolls.

For the record, I also think they should go for it this year, and increase spending; but that's because I think if they do it right, they can increase revenue enough to offset the increase.  Clearly, the Pohlads don't agree with that, and given their dramatically better handle on the actual finances of the team, I'm willing to believe them.

Huh? At this point we are probably talking past each other and really aren't that far apart. Their year over year spending should average matching market share, whether it's record spending for them or not is what is irrelevant. Breaking personal spending records by matching market share only proves that you have under spent in the past or are in a period of inflation. If they can't be profitable spending to their market share, that's bad business on their part. 

My only point is if they feel they can justify years where they don't match market share because they are rebuilding, then I think it is reasonable for us to expect that they use that to their advantage and spend that money when it will result in what should be the organization's goal; winning.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I've had a couple of thoughts over the last few days, and I just wanted to share them in this thread to get others' opinions.

1) Erick Fedde; I could see the Twins in on this. I know rumors are that it's down to the White Sox and Mets. I wouldn't be shocked if it is or is not the Twins, but I could see this. I also say this as I wouldn't at all expect it to be the primary addition this offseason. IF they get Fedde, I could absolutely see them rolling with a 6 man rotation to help watch the innings of Ober and Paddack, among others. Maybe less so Ober, but still, he had BY FAR his career high innings total in 2023, so I could see them not wanting him to blow past that number. I could be wrong.

2) With adding a pitcher, I keep coming back to, IF they truly are looking to add a front-line starter, to me that would spell more going after a guy who is currently a front-line starter, not someone who is a tweak away from potentially being that. So the YOUNGER Seattle guys (Woo, Miller) or some of the Marlins pitching (Cabrera) this wouldn't apply to. It also makes me think that Burnes or Glasnow, or even someone else not in trade rumors (Framber Valdez, Nestor Cortes,  I'm just spitballing names) is more the hope for the way that was worded. 

The hope is to get someone who immediately starts game #2 in a playoff series over Joe Ryan (who in his own right was VERY good pre-injury 2023.)

Am I crazy (don't answer that.) But I think that's what their goal is this time around. Worry less about the team control JUST for 2024, and worry more about filling the need of a playoff level starter.

Thoughts?

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

This is insanity.  You're saying if I take $20 out of my wallet and give it to my wife to put in her wallet, but also charge her interest, I'm somehow making money?

Yes, if moving the money around helps you avoid taxes. It's a lot cheaper to pay interest than it is to pay capital gains taxes.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I've had a couple of thoughts over the last few days, and I just wanted to share them in this thread to get others' opinions.

1) Erick Fedde; I could see the Twins in on this. I know rumors are that it's down to the White Sox and Mets. I wouldn't be shocked if it is or is not the Twins, but I could see this. I also say this as I wouldn't at all expect it to be the primary addition this offseason. IF they get Fedde, I could absolutely see them rolling with a 6 man rotation to help watch the innings of Ober and Paddack, among others. Maybe less so Ober, but still, he had BY FAR his career high innings total in 2023, so I could see them not wanting him to blow past that number. I could be wrong.

2) With adding a pitcher, I keep coming back to, IF they truly are looking to add a front-line starter, to me that would spell more going after a guy who is currently a front-line starter, not someone who is a tweak away from potentially being that. So the YOUNGER Seattle guys (Woo, Miller) or some of the Marlins pitching (Cabrera) this wouldn't apply to. It also makes me think that Burnes or Glasnow, or even someone else not in trade rumors (Framber Valdez, Nestor Cortes,  I'm just spitballing names) is more the hope for the way that was worded. 

The hope is to get someone who immediately starts game #2 in a playoff series over Joe Ryan (who in his own right was VERY good pre-injury 2023.)

Am I crazy (don't answer that.) But I think that's what their goal is this time around. Worry less about the team control JUST for 2024, and worry more about filling the need of a playoff level starter.

Thoughts?

Trading is going to be tight this year. Every team is more focused than in a long time and pitching is always the number one need for most clubs.

An issue is the money. While nobody on Twins Daily (not sure) knows the absolute proximity of a roster salary, a ceiling of around $125M pinches the team unless certain players are traded. The Catch-22 there is that those guys are still valuable too. Then it comes down to sending off someone who is highly regarded, which has been discussed a bunch. Framber is fantastic but (like the others) what is the cost. Difficult due to cost of players, price, and competition.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Which is why creativity is important right?

[nicksaviking]

Now we're talking. The off season can start now.

[Mike Sixel]

On 11/30/2023 at 1:54 PM, nicksaviking said:

If the Twins go for Miley or Montas it will show they learned nothing from the Archer/Bundy/Happ/Shoemaker days. 

 

I don't agree....Montas was quite good when healthy. Those other guys were well past being good (if they ever were). 

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't agree....Montas was quite good when healthy. Those other guys were well past being good (if they ever were). 

I still think Montas was a product of the Oakland Colosseum. I definitely don't want the Twins to be the team to attempt to prove that theory wrong. I haven't heard others share that idea so I understand that it may be a theory entirely belonging to me, though his road splits lend me at least some supporting evidence. I guess this can be labeled as a 'personal preference' for the time being.

[mnfireman]

The Reds, like the Twins, are said to be looking for pitching this off-season. And like the Twins, they have a surplus of infielders to trade from. They are said to be making Jonathan India available, which may force the Twins to include Julien in a deal - MLB talent, not prospect. 

Also, after the Soto deal, the Yankees will be looking for pitching. They generally go the FA route, but if they get involved in looking for trades, this may force the Twins to include Julien or one of the higher rated prospects. 

We will have to trust the FO in whatever deals they make or don't make, though many on here will question why a deal was made or not made.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

6 hours ago, mnfireman said:

The Reds, like the Twins, are said to be looking for pitching this off-season. And like the Twins, they have a surplus of infielders to trade from. They are said to be making Jonathan India available, which may force the Twins to include Julien in a deal - MLB talent, not prospect. 

Also, after the Soto deal, the Yankees will be looking for pitching. They generally go the FA route, but if they get involved in looking for trades, this may force the Twins to include Julien or one of the higher rated prospects. 

We will have to trust the FO in whatever deals they make or don't make, though many on here will question why a deal was made or not made.

 

I do wish someone could help me understand; India is not as good a player as Polanco, so I have a hard time understanding the draw for a team who needs a 2b. If the choices are Polanco and India, the decision (to me) is an easy one, and it's Polanco.

But yes, the front office will need to be creative in terms of how they acquire players this offseason. 

[tony&rodney]

45 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I do wish someone could help me understand; India is not as good a player as Polanco, so I have a hard time understanding the draw for a team who needs a 2b. If the choices are Polanco and India, the decision (to me) is an easy one, and it's Polanco.

But yes, the front office will need to be creative in terms of how they acquire players this offseason. 

India had a pretty good rookie season. Polanco is clearly a better player in my opinion but there is no way to know how others view these two side by side. India has three and Polanco two more years of control. For me, it is an easy choice as well.

[stringer bell]

On 12/5/2023 at 8:14 PM, tony&rodney said:

Trading is going to be tight this year. Every team is more focused than in a long time and pitching is always the number one need for most clubs.

An issue is the money. While nobody on Twins Daily (not sure) knows the absolute proximity of a roster salary, a ceiling of around $125M pinches the team unless certain players are traded. The Catch-22 there is that those guys are still valuable too. Then it comes down to sending off someone who is highly regarded, which has been discussed a bunch. Framber is fantastic but (like the others) what is the cost. Difficult due to cost of players, price, and competition.

In my mind, until and unless a trade is made to reduce salary, the Twins are within $8-10 of the maximum team salary and they currently have four spots on the 40-man roster for free agents or acquiring major league talent for prospects. Their history in trades is to bring in guys who are not free-agents-to-be (Maeda, Mahle, Gray, López, Paddack) and who are at least somewhat established as parts of a big league rotation. How many current teams are considering trading a projected member of their rotation? I'd say the number is not many. I think it will be difficult to find a trade partner and I don't think the Twins have a large number of prospect pieces that they are willing to part with. Would teams looking to 2025 and beyond trade for Vázquez, Farmer, Polanco or Kepler? Maybe the Twins will go for someone like Rogers of the Marlins, who has had success, but has struggled recently.

On the free agent front, until they clear some salary, even the Lucas Giolitos of the world are out of their budget range. The contract that MIley got might be as high as they are willing to go unless they get some salary off the books. IMHO, they are going to settle for someone who might bump Varland to the bullpen, but isn't a #2 or even a #3 starter. 

Since the post season run ended, the Twins have subtracted three position players and added four from their minor league system. They have subtracted eight pitchers and added none. With four open 40-man spots, most or all of their adds will probably be pitchers.  

[tony&rodney]

15 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

In my mind, until and unless a trade is made to reduce salary, the Twins are within $8-10 of the maximum team salary and they currently have four spots on the 40-man roster for free agents or acquiring major league talent for prospects. Their history in trades is to bring in guys who are not free-agents-to-be (Maeda, Mahle, Gray, López, Paddack) and who are at least somewhat established as parts of a big league rotation. How many current teams are considering trading a projected member of their rotation? I'd say the number is not many. I think it will be difficult to find a trade partner and I don't think the Twins have a large number of prospect pieces that they are willing to part with. Would teams looking to 2025 and beyond trade for Vázquez, Farmer, Polanco or Kepler? Maybe the Twins will go for someone like Rogers of the Marlins, who has had success, but has struggled recently.

On the free agent front, until they clear some salary, even the Lucas Giolitos of the world are out of their budget range. The contract that MIley got might be as high as they are willing to go unless they get some salary off the books. IMHO, they are going to settle for someone who might bump Varland to the bullpen, but isn't a #2 or even a #3 starter. 

Since the post season run ended, the Twins have subtracted three position players and added four from their minor league system. They have subtracted eight pitchers and added none. With four open 40-man spots, most or all of their adds will probably be pitchers.  

Yah, the Twins are in a difficult position for adding any starting pitcher of significance. Guys like Lewis, Lee, Julien, Emm-Rod, Festa, and Jenkins should not be traded unless the return is someone like George Kirby. So, not happening. The team is actually in reasonably good shape as it sits. Falvey will add a few pitchers to compete for bullpen jobs, but it is likely that pitchers are the ones to fill the 40 person roster.

The Marlins are still a possibility. You mention Rogers as a possibility, but the big known is that we don't know where Miami is headed; total guessing. We do know that Miami needs a catcher. How far would Falvey go to gamble on acquiring pitching? Is Miami still looking to save money? Perhaps the Twins could pry away a potential future asset like Sandy Alcantara along with Edward Cabrera for Ryan Jeffers. Too risky? This entire exercise of trying to guess where the Twins might improve their team has become Groundhog Day. 

[Doctor Wu]

On 12/3/2023 at 5:17 AM, specialiststeve said:

So not sure if anyone has discussed and I will likely get crucified by suggesting and know it would be very controversial, but Trevor Bauer has done his suspension and is out there looking for a job. 

A cheap one-year deal with a team option for year 2 would seem like something to consider. Getting a #1 or #2 at a major discount... Say a two year deal for 10 mil each year.... 

mind you I feel a bit uneasy just suggesting it but.... baseball wise.. ? 

 

Yes, it's a VERY uneasy idea. As much as I dislike Bauer as a person (or is personality the better noun?), I certainly think he could help the team in the starting rotation. A difference maker? I think it's possible, and that's worth consideration if we want to make the playoffs again.

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Yah, the Twins are in a difficult position for adding any starting pitcher of significance. Guys like Lewis, Lee, Julien, Emm-Rod, Festa, and Jenkins should not be traded unless the return is someone like George Kirby. So, not happening. The team is actually in reasonably good shape as it sits. Falvey will add a few pitchers to compete for bullpen jobs, but it is likely that pitchers are the ones to fill the 40 person roster.

The Marlins are still a possibility. You mention Rogers as a possibility, but the big known is that we don't know where Miami is headed; total guessing. We do know that Miami needs a catcher. How far would Falvey go to gamble on acquiring pitching? Is Miami still looking to save money? Perhaps the Twins could pry away a potential future asset like Sandy Alcantara along with Edward Cabrera for Ryan Jeffers. Too risky? This entire exercise of trying to guess where the Twins might improve their team has become Groundhog Day. 

Marlins just picked up Bethancourt, so adding another catcher won't be in their plans now.