Comparing Kepler and Polanco to Free Agents at Their Positions

[Rik19753]

9 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Trade #1 with Mariners

Mariners Get:  Kepler 8.9 OF Miranda 5.3 1B/3B/DH 26 yo  David Festa RHP 8.7 23 yo and Misael Urbina 2.3 OF 21 yo  Total Value 25.2

Twins Get:  Luis Castillo 20.8 SP 31 yo (we have him for his 31-35 year old seasons at about $21 million per, and Ty France 3.6 1B 29 yo.  Total Value 24.4

Trade #2 with Marlins

Marlins Get:  Jorge Polanco 4.5 2B/3B  Trevor Larnach 7.8 OF 27 yo  Josh Winder RHP 4.9  27 yo.  Total Value:  17.2

Twins Get:  Sandy Alcantara 15.3 28 yo. and Sixto Sanchez 0.0 RHP 26 yo.  Total Value:  15.3.

These are very great ideas and I like that they are backed by some numbers. However, I don't see either happening, and I think the valuation of Castillo and Alcantara are prime examples of the pitfalls when it comes to using BTVs.

I think there are a couple of factors that BTVs fails to address, which applies to Castillo and Alcantara.

One of those factors is supply and demand. I may be wrong, but from my understanding, BTVs only accounts for the surplus value that a player provides on their contract and doesn't account for the scarcity of the commodity. For example, if a 5 WAR player is paid like a 4 WAR player, they would value it the same as a 2 WAR player being paid like a 1 WAR player. In reality, the former would have more value because it's tremendously rare for teams to have a chance to acquire a 5 WAR player, which creates a bidding war.

Another factor is how close teams are to contention. Obviously, teams will value players differently based on where they are in terms of team-building. The Marlins and Mariners are both in the win-now phase, which inflates the player's values from the team's perspective. If either pitcher were on the Athletics, it would be a completely different story.

Also, some other factors, such as how the trade may look to the players, fans and owners, should be considered. Trading your ace is tremendously bad for team and fan morale. No matter the situation, the FO is going to get a tremendous amount of backlash, and I don't think most FO are bold enough to make such moves that jeopardizes their reputation. Kepler or Polanco don't even come close to having the name recognition or shine necessary to justify trading your ace for, and that matters. 

Given all these factors, I think the actual value of Alcantara or Castillo is somewhere around 50, maybe even higher. Brooks Lee and Walker Jenkins are both valued at around that range, and I don't think either is enough to pry Alcantara or Castillo from their respective teams.

[rv78]

TopGunn I think you are underestimating the value of both Castillo and Alcantara. Both are their teams #1 pitcher and both are currently playoff caliber teams. I can't see them trading those guys away. I know this FO does not like to sign Free Agent pitchers thus making the way of a trade more likely so any trade likely to happen will be with a non-playoff contending team. Unfortunately I also don't envision any non-playoff type team wanting to add a Polanco or Kepler so there's that to equate into the situation as well. The best option for the Twins is to trade both Polanco and Kepler for prospects and trim payroll, then add the best Free Agent pitcher you can with the dollars that would have went to Polanco and Kepler. There are 6 of them that would work. You'd still have $10-$15M to spend on CF before getting close to the desired payroll limit of $135-$140M.

[Fat Calvin]

I think we should trade Polanco for the best starter we can get and sign Maeda to a one or two year deal.  Then, I think we'd be good to go.

[KBJ1]

Wallner is basically Kepler redux. Good fielder with power, just needs to hit more consistently. ( So did Kepler for the first half of last season)

No way we trade Lewis!

Farmer is a better 3B/SS than Polanco and cheaper. He stays.

Castro is one of the best utility players in the game and has speed. He stays over Gordon.

Austin Martin has finally shown he is ready. A dynamic fielder  base stealer and much better contact hitter than Taylor.

Brooks Lee may also make the team out of spring training. More options for backups at !B & 2B.

Don't forget about Miranda & Severino either could contribute.

Sign a RH power hitter to play left field! Been a gaping hole since Eddie left.

Trade Polanco or Kepler + a prospect  like Winder for younger controllable pitching. 

Miranda, Lee or if needed Solano to back up 1B. Hopefully Kirrilof mashes and we are good.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

Wallner is basically Kepler redux. Good fielder with power, just needs to hit more consistently. ( So did Kepler for the first half of last season)

 

Wallner is at best, on his best day, an average fielder who looks a lot like Gallo fairly often with his bat.

[TopGunn#22]

Good points in commenting on my post Rik and rv78.  You both nailed the problem with relying too heavily on something like BTV, even though we need to use BTV or something very similar to get some kind of valuation of players.  

The values do indeed seem depressed for Alcantara and Castillo.  Miami would be much more likely to trade a Max Meyer than their #1.  Although Alcantara had a down year last year, Luzardo may actually be considered their Ace going into 2024.  And I could see Seattle trading Woo or Miller, or taking whatever they could get for Robbie Ray due to his contract rather than trade their Ace.  

[Fatbat]

@TopGunn#22 I didn’t see you mention Paddack. Would you trade him or put him in the BPen?

[TopGunn#22]

Fatbat, I went back and reviewed my rotation and you are correct !!  I failed to mention Paddack.  He would most likely be that 6th SP type that provides the always needed depth for the present era major league pitching staff.  In these trades, I also picked up a 26 y/o arm in Sixto Sanchez from the Marlins who has an electric arm but has battled injuries.  

He and Paddack are those 6th SP guys who could also be multi-inning guys out of the bullpen.  I would consider trading either but would much rather hang onto them and use them for 3 inning bullpen stints to keep other, shorter inning bullpen guys fresh, but also to have them handy as 6h SP, spot SP material when needed.  But I'd have them up with the Twins if they were healthy and throwing darts.  I wouldn't waste their arms in the minor leagues.  You can never have too much pitching.  

[Doctor Wu]

On 11/14/2023 at 8:59 PM, Dman said:

Thanks for this article!  I was trying to piece together their trade value relative to the FA market.  It felt like they should be in demand and this article seems to confirm what I felt.  I hate to see either one or both go, but depending on the return it could help the team long term.

Nothing will probably happen until the free agent market dries up, but I have to believe the offers for Kepler and Polanco should be significant.

First of all, a very interesting article, approaching the "value" of those two players from a different angle. I'm not really sure that the return for either one of those players will be "significant", but as this article suggests, both players may end up being more in demand than some of us would have thought. Good stuff. 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

First of all, a very interesting article, approaching the "value" of those two players from a different angle. I'm not really sure that the return for either one of those players will be "significant", but as this article suggests, both players may end up being more in demand than some of us would have thought. Good stuff. 

Yeah significant is relative.  If that means top of the rotation starter then I would say I am way off.  To me it means borderline top 100 prospect or another major league piece back.