Soto and Alonso: Realistic Trade Pieces?

[cmoss84]

Juan Soto is a top 10 hitter in all of MLB and Pete Alonso is a 40/120 guy every year when healthy. Both, more than likely, would be 1-year rentals...Soto at $27M and Alonso at $21M. 

Are either worth getting in a trade? Both? Should the Twins be interested? What would you give up? 

For myself, I would package a deal around Kepler and Kirilloff for Soto (and then do everything possible to sign Yamamoto). Would a move like this bolster our lineup enough to make it to the promise land next year? Would the juice be worth the squeeze? 

[RpR]

39 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Juan Soto is a top 10 hitter in all of MLB and Pete Alonso is a 40/120 guy every year when healthy. Both, more than likely, would be 1-year rentals...Soto at $27M and Alonso at $21M. 

Are either worth getting in a trade? Both? Should the Twins be interested? What would you give up? 

 

Soto - NO

Hole in the defense for a lot of money, while , at the same time, signing a 24 year old not to a long term contract is asinine.

Alonso - Maybe

Good defense; trade Miranda ( or Julien) and Wallner for a first rate First Baseman with a three year contract.

[2wins87]

Yes either would be worth a trade, but I'm not sure it makes sense anymore under the new payroll constraint in the 125-140 range.  I do think that the lineup needs a big bat, and either are good enough that they could change the feel of the whole lineup.  Both would also come with a compensation pick attached if acquired in the offseason, so the Twins would get one year plus a pick after the first round in 2025.

I think you are very low on your offer for Soto, unless the Padres were super high on Kirilloff. I don't think it gets done without a prospect in the 50-100 range.  Emmanuel Rodriguez would make a lot of sense.  Neither could be landed in a trade with just short-term or cast-off pieces, we would have to give up something that hurts. Your proposal might make more sense for Alonso, as Kirilloff would give the Mets a controllable replacement.

Bottom line, it would make sense if the Twins were spending, but given what we've learned about their likely payroll, probably not.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think a year of Kepler and Kirilloff are nearly enough to get Soto.

Alonso would be great to have, but didn't the Mets already say they won't be trading him? He has a good eye at the plate and power, those tend to be two age-resistant skills, I'd expect the Mets to eventually sign him long term.

[chpettit19]

Twins should definitely be interested in both, but I don't see anyway they make a deal for either of these guys with budget cuts coming. Either of them completely changes this lineup and takes it to another level, but I don't see them giving up the sort of assets they'd have to for a 1 year rental in a year they're cutting payroll.

[tony&rodney]

The salaries are too steep. Soto is an amazing guy in the batter's box. He is brutal in the field and has refused to be a DH, which is understandable given his age. When someone has a magic wand like Soto, they can call their own shots.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, RpR said:

Soto - NO

Hole in the defense for a lot of money, while , at the same time, signing a 24 year old not to a long term contract is asinine.

Alonso - Maybe

Good defense; trade Miranda ( or Julien) and Wallner for a first rate First Baseman with a three year contract.

Alonso adding 150 plus K’s to our line-up …….the line-up that already lead the AL in homers……..with a .217 BA, doesn’t seem to be a great move.

He seems like a decent guy…..so why are the Mets so non-commital? Pretty sure they can afford him!

Soto is a talent but seems like a disruption, particularly in the Twin Cities market.

[cmoss84]

You all make really good points...I appreciate the feedback!

*just want to reiterate my initial proposal to get Soto: it would be a package built around Kepler and Kirilloff...not solely those 2.

[cmoss84]

As far as the cost goes...would you rather have Kiermaier for 1yr/12M or Soto 1yr/15M (after we subtract some of of payroll in trade) and a top 100 prospect not named Lee or Jenkins?

*keep in mind we would get draft pick compensation from Soto later on, as mentioned earlier in thread.

 

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Alonso adding 150 plus K’s to our line-up …….the line-up that already lead the AL in homers……..with a .217 BA, doesn’t seem to be a great move.

He seems like a decent guy…..so why are the Mets so non-commital? Pretty sure they can afford him!

Soto is a talent but seems like a disruption, particularly in the Twin Cities market.

The bet on Alonso is that he gets back to being a .260-.270 hitter that he was the previous years, and not a .217 hitter. The Mets have actually been quite "committal" as far as baseball folks go. David Stearns has said since the second he got there that he has no intention of trading Alonso.

Why does Soto "seem like a disruption, particularly in the Twin Cities market?" 

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why does Soto "seem like a disruption, particularly in the Twin Cities market?" 

HE would "block" rookies coming up. 😂

[cmoss84]

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The bet on Alonso is that he gets back to being a .260-.270 hitter that he was the previous years, and not a .217 hitter. The Mets have actually been quite "committal" as far as baseball folks go. David Stearns has said since the second he got there that he has no intention of trading Alonso.

Why does Soto "seem like a disruption, particularly in the Twin Cities market?" 

The Mets are a mess...the Padres are a mess. Both should know by now (or very soon) whether they can resign Soto/Alonso, and will have to make a decision to trade them in off-season or trade deadline.

 

[JD-TWINS]

31 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The bet on Alonso is that he gets back to being a .260-.270 hitter that he was the previous years, and not a .217 hitter. The Mets have actually been quite "committal" as far as baseball folks go. David Stearns has said since the second he got there that he has no intention of trading Alonso.

Why does Soto "seem like a disruption, particularly in the Twin Cities market?" 

Soto, to me, seems to be all about Soto. He turned down a $400 million plus offer at 22. The fact that the Padres struggled (with 4 starters with sub 3.50 ERA) all year & the Manager left, of his own choosing, something wrong! Seems Soto had to be part of the “ego” issues the every day players seemed to struggle with in San Diego.

Last, why bring in a bat for 1 year? No chance he stays with the Twins - again, to me, that’s a disruption.

The no trade for Alonso maybe isn’t obvious to all - just saw a headline today that Keith Hernandez is calling for management to re-sign Alonso. Doesn’t seem absolutely eminent?……….148 K’s per year in his 4 full seasons outside ‘20, shortened year….I know he’s got power but more K’s per position in this line-up doesn’t excite me.

[2wins87]

54 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Alonso adding 150 plus K’s to our line-up …….the line-up that already lead the AL in homers……..with a .217 BA, doesn’t seem to be a great move.

He seems like a decent guy…..so why are the Mets so non-commital? Pretty sure they can afford him!

Soto is a talent but seems like a disruption, particularly in the Twin Cities market.

Alonso has a lot of Ks because he plays every day and has had near perfect health.  He's had well over 600 PAs every season outside of the Covid shortened 2020.  His K rate has been around 20% the last 3 years.  Only Kepler, Solano, and Correa had lower K rates than he did last year.  If your main concern is Ks, he would be a vast improvement to the lineup.

The reason I wouldn't trade for Alonso is that I think Hoskins is only a slight step down, and could be signed for a lower AAV, probably for one year, without giving up any prospects.

[cmoss84]

10 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Soto, to me, seems to be all about Soto. He turned down a $400 million plus offer at 22. The fact that the Padres struggled (with 4 starters with sub 3.50 ERA) all year & the Manager left, of his own choosing, something wrong! Seems Soto had to be part of the “ego” issues the every day players seemed to struggle with in San Diego.

Last, why bring in a bat for 1 year? No chance he stays with the Twins - again, to me, that’s a disruption.

The no trade for Alonso maybe isn’t obvious to all - just saw a headline today that Keith Hernandez is calling for management to re-sign Alonso. Doesn’t seem absolutely eminent?……….148 K’s per year in his 4 full seasons outside ‘20, shortened year….I know he’s got power but more K’s per position in this line-up doesn’t excite me.

My thought process (which I'm sure is flawed) is trade 1 year of Kepler for 1 year of Soto. Strike when the iron is hot. 

[JD-TWINS]

Soto in ‘23:

.275 BA …. 568 At Bats ….. 35 HR …..OBP%.410

 

Kepler in ‘23:

.260 BA ……..438 At Bats ….24 HR ….OBP%.332

Soto has a better ability to walk! Reflected in OBP. Definite value there.

Kepler, significantly a better OF. Value there as well.

Both have 1 year left & Kepler makes $5M less.

Don’t see a great value in the move for a one year deal.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

I wonder what Soto's market will look like, given that he's only a two-tool player. Joey Votto is the best comp, but he played an actual position for his entire career, and he's been average defensively. Votto received MVP votes in '21, his age-37 season, so I would say that his albatross contract worked out well for the Reds (even if they spent a lot of years losing). How comfortable are teams going to be to give $400M-$500M to a guy who will be a full-time DH in a year or two?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

The Mets are a mess...the Padres are a mess. Both should know by now (or very soon) whether they can resign Soto/Alonso, and will have to make a decision to trade them in off-season or trade deadline.

 

I disagree that the Padres are a mess. They were absolutely disappointing in the win total last year, but their run differential was 1 spot behind the Twins, and 8th best in baseball. It was incredible how poorly they did in 1 run games. Like unbelievable that they ended with only 82 wins (which is only 5 less than the Twins while playing in a way tougher division).

The Padres have already said it's more likely they trade Soto at the deadline if they trade him, and the Mets have already said they're not looking to trade Alonso and are having extension talks. I'm not saying it's impossible either guy is traded, but both teams have spoken on them already. 

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Soto, to me, seems to be all about Soto. He turned down a $400 million plus offer at 22. The fact that the Padres struggled (with 4 starters with sub 3.50 ERA) all year & the Manager left, of his own choosing, something wrong! Seems Soto had to be part of the “ego” issues the every day players seemed to struggle with in San Diego.

Last, why bring in a bat for 1 year? No chance he stays with the Twins - again, to me, that’s a disruption.

The no trade for Alonso maybe isn’t obvious to all - just saw a headline today that Keith Hernandez is calling for management to re-sign Alonso. Doesn’t seem absolutely eminent?……….148 K’s per year in his 4 full seasons outside ‘20, shortened year….I know he’s got power but more K’s per position in this line-up doesn’t excite me.

Yeah, I'm not at all going to read anything like you are into that stuff. Feel free, but you're not basing those opinions on anything real, in my opinion. He turned down a contract with a team that was in free fall with no sign of coming out of it and bet on himself to be able to make even more while picking where he wanted to play. I don't find that as a character flaw. He wasn't an "ego issue" when he won a World Series. Tying the manager leaving to Soto in anyway is a bridge way too far for me. Especially because it's been widely reported that AJ Preller is terrible to work with as a manager, and Melvin and him didn't get along at all (some rumors were that Preller wasn't even talking to Melvin anymore).

I don't expect the Mets to trade Alonso, and definitely don't expect the Twins to be the ones to get him if they do, but not wanting a .260+ batter (he's hit .260+ in 3 of 5 seasons) with 40 HRs because other guys in the Twins lineup strikeout is a bold stance. He struck out fewer than 130 times the 2 previous seasons which puts him right in line with Soto. The bet is that he gets back to who he was in 2019, 2021, and 2022. His K% was 22.9% last year, by the way. It's not like he's striking out 30+% of the time. He was under 20% the 2 previous seasons in 150+ games played each year. Pete Alonso would be the best bat in the Twins lineup immediately. I don't get why you wouldn't want that because other guys in the lineup are bad. But to each their own.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Soto in ‘23:

.275 BA …. 568 At Bats ….. 35 HR …..OBP%.410

 

Kepler in ‘23:

.260 BA ……..438 At Bats ….24 HR ….OBP%.332

Soto has a better ability to walk! Reflected in OBP. Definite value there.

Kepler, significantly a better OF. Value there as well.

Both have 1 year left & Kepler makes $5M less.

Don’t see a great value in the move for a one year deal.

You don't see the great value even for a 1 year deal? Really? You look at the numbers below and don't see how Juan Soto, in a down year for him vs a career year for Kepler, has great value?

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You don't see the great value even for a 1 year deal? Really? You look at the numbers below and don't see how Juan Soto, in a down year for him vs a career year for Kepler, has great value?

It was a mind boggling post....no value? Really?

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

It was a mind boggling post....no value? Really?

If you go into a debate about the best hitter on the planet right now and drop those 2 names one of them gets you asked to leave the conversation while the other has people nodding their head in agreement that it's a possibility. I know it's natural to overvalue the players we watch all year and know well, but that is overvaluing to the max (see what I did there?).

[RpR]

Let's see now , in another thread every one is pleased with Lewis, Team Sport attitude which makes him great all around, OK; now we are supposed to salivate over a dude whose line is ME, MYSELF and I.

 

Let his ego play some where else.

[chpettit19]

52 minutes ago, RpR said:

Let's see now , in another thread every one is pleased with Lewis, Team Sport attitude which makes him great all around, OK; now we are supposed to salivate over a dude whose line is ME, MYSELF and I.

 

Let his ego play some where else.

You have any quotes on this "ME, MYSELF, and I" line?

[RpR]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

You have any quotes on this "ME, MYSELF, and I" line?

I did not put a quote in, there are no quotation marks.

Just going by what JD-TWINS said, at that , a TEAM player does not come and go after one year at his age.

[Dave Lemke]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I disagree that the Padres are a mess. They were absolutely disappointing in the win total last year, but their run differential was 1 spot behind the Twins, and 8th best in baseball. It was incredible how poorly they did in 1 run games. Like unbelievable that they ended with only 82 wins (which is only 5 less than the Twins while playing in a way tougher division).

The Padres have already said it's more likely they trade Soto at the deadline if they trade him, and the Mets have already said they're not looking to trade Alonso and are having extension talks. I'm not saying it's impossible either guy is traded, but both teams have spoken on them already. 

How many posters actually realize that we don't play as many intra-division as we used to.  It dropped by 24 this last year. Not as many intradivison games changes the story about playing in the "worst" division in baseball. 

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, RpR said:

I did not put a quote in, there are no quotation marks.

Just going by what JD-TWINS said, at that , a TEAM player does not come and go after one year at his age.

That's my point. You're assassinating this young man's character based on nothing. I'm asking if you have a basis to your statement that Soto's "line is ME, MYSELF, and I." JD-TWINS didn't provide any real reasoning for that thought either. Suggesting that Soto isn't a team player because he won't just blindly sign an extension for whatever the Twins offer him if he were to get traded here is nonsense. Guess what, Lewis isn't just going to sign whatever contract the Twins put in front of him either. He doesn't have a choice but to stay here. I think it's pretty reasonable to at least have a quote or two from someone before you label them selfish.

[chpettit19]

41 minutes ago, Dave Lemke said:

How many posters actually realize that we don't play as many intra-division as we used to.  It dropped by 24 this last year. Not as many intradivison games changes the story about playing in the "worst" division in baseball. 

The Padres played 91 games against teams over .500 in 2023. The Twins played 73. If you don't think getting 52 division games against teams under .500 isn't an advantage over getting 26 division games against teams under .500 ok. But I think it helped.

Claiming the Padres "are a mess" when they finish 5 games worse than the Twins while playing 18 more games against teams over .500 feels like a misuse of the word "mess." If you don't want to attribute those extra 18 games to the 26 more intra-division games then don't. Doesn't change the fact that the Padres played a significantly harder schedule.

[Dave Lemke]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Padres played 91 games against teams over .500 in 2023. The Twins played 73. If you don't think getting 52 division games against teams under .500 isn't an advantage over getting 26 division games against teams under .500 ok. But I think it helped.

Claiming the Padres "are a mess" when they finish 5 games worse than the Twins while playing 18 more games against teams over .500 feels like a misuse of the word "mess." If you don't want to attribute those extra 18 games to the 26 more intra-division games then don't. Doesn't change the fact that the Padres played a significantly harder schedule.

Never claimed the Padres were a mess.

[chpettit19]

Just now, Dave Lemke said:

Never claimed the Padres were a mess.

Another poster did and I responded to them suggesting the Padres weren't a mess and you responded to me. Just using the term that was being used to describe them. The point, though, is that the Twins historically bad division was an advantage, even if it wasn't as big of one as it used to be.