Soto and Alonso: Realistic Trade Pieces?

[cmoss84]

I said the Padres were a mess...mostly for how much money they have spent and are 14 games above .500 over the last 3 years. And some animosity in the dugout.

(Payroll of 255m got them to 82-80)

[cmoss84]

FWIW, mlb network reporting Soto will be gone before season starts.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

I said the Padres were a mess...mostly for how much money they have spent and are 14 games above .500 over the last 3 years. And some animosity in the dugout.

Padres weren't much higher in payroll in 2021 (roughly 174) than the Twins were in 2023 (roughly 155). That's a real gap for sure, but they weren't at some crazy level then. I think mess is a strong word to use. Some fans think Sonny Gray had animosity with Rocco. I think trying to judge those things (much like the character of a player) from the outside is incredibly hard to do.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

FWIW, mlb network reporting Soto will be gone before season starts.

Wonder if the offers people are calling with are just so good or if money has become a real problem. I'd guess those are the most likely motivating factors.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

Soto declined a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Nationals before he was traded to the Padres. The thinking is it would take more like $500 million to get Soto's signature at this point....

...Soto joined the Padres in an Aug. 2 trade and hit .236/.388/.390 over his 52 regular season games with the team. Those numbers were all well below his career marks (.291/.427/.538) over his first 4½ seasons.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2022-11-09/padres-juan-soto-contract-scott-boras-aj-preller

Greedy Me, Myself and I.

 

 

What do his stats for 52 games after his trade have to do with anything? He was back to being an elite hitter last year so what does that mean about who he is as a person?

Greedy because he didn't stay with the only team that could offer him a contract at that time? A team, by the way, that was in an absolute death spiral and looking at a massive rebuild. You don't like that players try to get paid as much as they can. We don't need to derail this thread. You're willing to judge a young man you've never met based on him not signing an extension, and, apparently, the fact that he had a singular rough stretch after a trade. We're just going to have to agree to disagree that any of us have any idea what sort of human Juan Soto is. We're going to end this side talk here, though.

[nicksaviking]

On 11/10/2023 at 9:20 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Alonso adding 150 plus K’s to our line-up …….the line-up that already lead the AL in homers……..with a .217 BA, doesn’t seem to be a great move.

He seems like a decent guy…..so why are the Mets so non-commital? Pretty sure they can afford him!

Soto is a talent but seems like a disruption, particularly in the Twin Cities market.

I too am exceedingly concerned about the strikeouts with this team, but in Alonso's case, that's only due to volume. He only struck out in 23% of his plate appearances last year, and that's in line with his career averages.

He'd actually be an asset in the fight against swings and misses.

But still, I don't see the Mets trading him. He should be a long term asset for a team that hopes to contend in the next couple of years.

[RonCoomersOPS]

The Padres need pitching and and first base/corner outfield help. I'd dangle one of Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober with Kirilloff and Larnach and see what happens. Soto would be an excellent get, and he's not going to cost *that* much as he's only got one year of expensive control left.

I'm less interested in Alonso. Paying big bucks for a first baseman just seems like a Terry Ryan-level bad idea to me (reserve those big paydays for plus up the middle guys or plus-plus corner OF guys).

[TopGunn#22]

I'm not comfortable with any assertion that Juan Soto is a "Problem" guy.  A "Me" guy.  Based on what?  Based on NOTHING.  I will agree that he is a tremendous offensive player who would really add juice to any lineup while playing below average corner outfield defense.

He would be a tremendous addition to the Twins lineup, even if it was for one year only.  That said, if the Twins were showing a willingness to INCREASE payroll to make a run, conversations regarding Soto would make some sense.  According to BBTV you could trade Wallner straight up for Soto.  They're 23.9 values are exactly equal.  Would that be enough to get him?  Maybe. 

But if you were going to trade Wallner, or possibly Ober and Larnach, you would have to make corresponding moves in FA to sign a couple of SP's, like Frankie Montas and Lucas Giolito.  If you're pushing all your chips to the middle of the table to make a serious run, you don't hold any chips back.  Trading Kepler and Polanco helps mitigate what you'd be paying Soto.  Gray's departure allows you to sign Montas.  Moving Farmer and Theilbar helps pay for some of Giolito.  But that's a LOT of moving parts.

In regards to the Padres being a mess.  Heck YES they're a mess.  They've underachieved by their own and their fans expectations.  They will lose the N.L. Cy Young Award winner and one of the top 5 closers in baseball.  Their rotation is a mess with Wacha probably leaving and an aging, increasingly fragile and ineffective Yu Darvish and an injured Joe Musgrove leading their staff.  Manny Machado is UNHAPPY and has a contract that is virtually immoveable.  At least they still have Fernando Tatis.  Yup...they are a mess.

Pete Alonso would be a fascinating addition to our lineup.  Solves the 1B problem.  RH power hitter good for 40 HR's and 100 RBI's per season. (sounds almost Killebrew-esque)  he would make a great cleanup hitter.  He would actually be someone that could be affordable beyond next season if you were willing to make Kirilloff an OF.  But to get him you'd have to trade.  All it would take to get Rhys Hoskins is money.  Hoskins isn't as good as Alonso but he's not bad at all.  Problem is, money seems to be an issue for the Twins.  

Love the conversation.  Just stay away from disparaging a player based on nothing.  None of us are "insiders" who could honestly claim we have the real deal news on player X being a cancer.  That goes for Soto, or Trevor Bauer or whoever.  We. Don't. Know.

[tony&rodney]

On 11/14/2023 at 9:09 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

Love the conversation.  Just stay away from disparaging a player based on nothing.  None of us are "insiders" who could honestly claim we have the real deal news on player X being a cancer.  That goes for Soto, or Trevor Bauer or whoever.  We. Don't. Know.

Totally agree with these sentiments on judgment. The entire steroid era was media driven calls on who was friendly or not to reporters. Bonds and Clemens = grouchy, while Ortiz, McGuire, Soto = fan faves. It is insane that Ortiz is a HOF, but no Bonds.

There are some strong trails behind Bauer. Nobody from UCLA has ever had anything but silence or derision for Trevor. Arizona made a decision to trade him and the return was well short of expectation. Cleveland actually was going to release Bauer but Cincy wanted to have him. Finally, if we can believe the report that the Dodgers left Bauer's return to the players to be true, there may be some difficulty with him. According to that article, the players voted unanimously "No". Grain of salt there. I actually have enjoyed Bauer's discussions on baseball videos and he is well spoken and clearly likes baseball. The whole mess the last several years was  just sad. I would leave any thoughts on adding Bauer to Falvey and Baldelli. 

Juan Soto talk is mostly people being judgmental because he has some swagger in his game. I have never seen anything to indicate problems. Soto plays almost every day. A phone call seems warranted.

The payroll might restrict the Twins from adding a front line starter or Juan Soto, but there should be paths to adding players. You have proposed some fair trades as have others. Transactions have already been debated so much that the avenues on Twins Daily are exhausted. The Twins lose depth when they trade excellent players from either their veterans or top young guys list. Fill a hole only to expose another position. Any loss of Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez etc. reduces experience, which is generally key for winning teams. Any suggested trade that includes Lewis and Lee lights up the boards with negative reactions. The long term thinking toward Wallner and Julien is unknown. It seems the Twins will need to decide which players to hold and who to push forward as bait for a good starting pitcher. I'm generally done with all that and am just interested to see what happens.

In terms of lesser options, I do think that the Twins could easily pry a potentially strong guy from Miami. Edward Cabrera is out of options and has struggled with his control. Of course there is no guarantee that he would be better for the Twins. The Twins would have to overpay (BTV #s) to acquire Cabrera and I'm not sure what that would look like. Maybe two decent guys like Larnach and Winder plus two minor league players that do not need to be put on a 40 person roster. It's a gamble and i would not include top prospects. December should bring some answers because several teams will want to begin organizing their rosters after the Rule 5 Draft. The conversations are a bit like playing musical chairs and I hope the Twins have a chair when the music stops. Like some others, I am not going to get excited with an addition of Archer or Bundy. This might be a year to gamble.

[TopGunn#22]

Well said tony&rodney.  If the Twins could trade Wallner straight up for Soto, even if it's for only one year I think you have to at least consider it.  Especially with Emmanuel Rodriguez close enough to be the starting RF in 2025.  

Bauer is a hot topic.  I just brought him up as what I think could be a cost-effective option for the rotation.  There are plenty of players I'd rather take a swing at, like Montas, Giolito, Eduardo Rodriguez and others in FA and Burnes, Alcantara, Cabrera etc...in trades.  But at $12 million per year, he'd certainly be better than Maeda.

We're not even to the Winter Meetings yet and we've exhausted virtually every topic on TD in Daily Norseman Kirk Cousins vs. Josh Dobbs fashion.  I'm with you in that, I think I've made my feelings known, but I'm to the point I'd like to just sit back and see what actually happens.

I will say this.  I think the Twins have a unique opportunity to cement a winning team with a solid window for at least the next 5 years.  It would be MUCH easier to accomplish this by maintaining payroll despite the uncertainty of the TV money, but it is still possible even with the expected reduction.  However, a couple of fringy moves are not what is needed.  The FO has done a great job getting us into this position, but they need to take some big swings this winter.  Whether that's trading for Corbin Burnes or Juan Soto, or signing TWO SP's to move Varland to the bullpen for 2024.  There need to be some major moves made.  I hope they're up to the task.  

[cmoss84]

Yankees are supposedly in dialogue with the Padres for Soto, but they seem far apart if what I read off of bleacher report is true. Padres looking for top dudes...Dominguez, Volpe, Schmidt...and Yankees are not all about it.

If the Padres would accept something like Festa, SWR, and Kepler, would have to pull the trigger...right? 

Anyone hear anything new on Soto or Alonso? 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Yankees are supposedly in dialogue with the Padres for Soto, but they seem far apart if what I read off of bleacher report is true. Padres looking for top dudes...Dominguez, Volpe, Schmidt...and Yankees are not all about it.

If the Padres would accept something like Festa, SWR, and Kepler, would have to pull the trigger...right? 

Anyone hear anything new on Soto or Alonso? 

Soto is a gamble in as much as he is on a one year deal. There will be zero negotiations because he will want to test the market. The cost will be high. Ober, Varland, Kepler, maybe Jeffers, and a few lower rated minor league players might be possible. Actually nobody knows the price, but if the Twins call the Padres immediately they will suggest Lewis and Wallner plus Lee or something stupid like that. 

Soto is amazing in the batter's box and he usually plays nearly every game. His average season is over the top excellent. Despite all cries opposing the idea, Soto is a possible addition if the Twins are willing to gamble big. I'm sure they won't even engage in talks and I'm not sure it would be a net positive. Still, pending other crazy gambles or challenge trades, there is a 0.0001% chance. Never say never.

[SteveLV]

No realistic chance this FO sells the farm for a one-year rental.

This is a trade target for win-now, big market teams.

[cmoss84]

1 hour ago, SteveLV said:

No realistic chance this FO sells the farm for a one-year rental.

This is a trade target for win-now, big market teams.

What is your definition of selling the farm? The only reason we COULD have a chance getting Soto (or Alonso) is the fact we would get them for only 1 year. Otherwise we have no chance. In these scenarios though, the playing fields are even because it comes down to farm systems and expendable pieces, and we have a pretty good ones. 

[nicksaviking]

18 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Yankees are supposedly in dialogue with the Padres for Soto, but they seem far apart if what I read off of bleacher report is true. Padres looking for top dudes...Dominguez, Volpe, Schmidt...and Yankees are not all about it.

If the Padres would accept something like Festa, SWR, and Kepler, would have to pull the trigger...right? 

Anyone hear anything new on Soto or Alonso? 

Since I would agree to that deal before the Padres could finish asking the question, my assumption has to be that it's waaaaaay too lopsided in the Twins favor.

[cmoss84]

29 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Since I would agree to that deal before the Padres could finish asking the question, my assumption has to be that it's waaaaaay too lopsided in the Twins favor.

It is a really weird situation and difficult to gauge who they might get back. If I was them, I would wait until the deadline and see if they are in contention...but it sounds like it might happen soon.