Home Run Hunting: Exploring Trade Prospects to Bolster the Minnesota Twins' Offense

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

Pass for me.  We ranked in the top 10 for HR didn't we this past year?  With the uncertain financial situation we will be in due to Bally's - lets keep our prospects in-house as we may need cheaper talent in the next few years. 

We were 1rst I think in team HRs

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Brandon said:

We were 1rst I think in team HRs

Tied for 3rd with Texas. Atlanta actually tied the Twins record from 2019 with 307 HRs which was far and away #1.

[cmoss84]

Absolutely need to kick the tires on Soto. A few things to think about:

1) Would Buxton waive his no-trade clause to play in San Diego (many would)?

2) Would SD have any interest in Vasquez? Kepler? Polanco?

3) We have a lot of depth in prospects. A package around #1 or #2 with a few prospects in the 5-30 range might get it done. 

[Brandon]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Tied for 3rd with Texas. Atlanta actually tied the Twins record from 2019 with 307 HRs which was far and away #1.

In the Al we were first or tied for first not counting NL

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Basically the only untouchables right now are Correa and Buxton.

The "it would take a perfect trade" guys are Duran and Lewis.

Everybody else has a level of availability if the Twins thought it would improve their team.

After the dealings with Correa and Buxton, we-as-fans need to re-evaluate how the front office looks at things.  I don't think any available player, either FA or trade candidate, is off the table.

Lewis is absolutely off the table - no reasonable return can be imagined.

[DocBauer]

Actually, sorry I read this post. 

The Twins should trade the future for 1 or more HIGH PRICED FA to be, more or less. 

Hey, I'm OK to improve the team and WIN!

But let's pause for a moment to reflect on what should be the primary 2024 Twins lineup. Young talent like Wallner, Lewis, Julien, and a healthy Kirilloff are a great start. All 4 were pretty damn good when given the chance, and AK was the team's best hitter for about 2 months before he dived and hurt his shoulder. Reports are he'll be fine.

I admit to being wrong about Kepler. Always a fan, I was ready to move on after 3 poor seasons and a bad early 2023. And THEN, he suddenly seemed to adjust. The whole "shift thing" was NEVER the issue. It was always about him just smacking the hell out of the ball when he made contact! And a couple of weeks is one thing. But a half season plus is different. I think he finally realized how natural his ability is. And he can trust now more in his approach going forward.

So NOTHING ever works out exactly as planned. But let's play out a little fantasy baseball at this point. LF, RF, 3B, SS, 1B, 2B combo, catcher combo, 20 HR plus. Assuming, for a moment, generall health. Wallner is easily a 20 HR batter if not 30. Kepler is easily 20+, especially if we can believe in his 2/3 season turn around. Lewis is Lewis at this point. AK was the Twins best overall hitter for 2 months, finally hitting his ceiling, for diving for a ball and messing up his shoulder. Reports are he'll be fine. GREAT! (NEVER do that again). A healthy Correa is a legit 20 HR hitter. And our catching platoon is a legitimate 20 HR platoon.  And Julien is a 20 HR bat with a solid OB % and seemingly clutch opportunity. 

IIRC, the Twins were #2 in runs scored post break. And I believe they tied the Rangers for most AL HR. And their offense was lead by young talent and a few veterans. So they should suddenly do what? Make a massive signing for an offensive FA that will be gone? Trade top prospects for a 1yr bat who will cost $500M instead of keeping what they have?

HELLO to the Anegls for ZERO products produced despite having probably the best two players in the world.

[Heavy sigh] what did I say about regretting reading this post?.

My bad!

On to pizza and TV worth watching.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Absolutely need to kick the tires on Soto. A few things to think about:

1) Would Buxton waive his no-trade clause to play in San Diego (many would)?

2) Would SD have any interest in Vasquez? Kepler? Polanco?

3) We have a lot of depth in prospects. A package around #1 or #2 with a few prospects in the 5-30 range might get it done. 

IF budget is a driving force for San Diego & is a concern of their’s, which I do not believe, then staying relevant with Kepler & moving Soto makes sense for them! We could add Woods-Richardson for upside to San Diego. I saw we could make a QO to him and get compensation in draft……maybe? …..Seems to me San Diego knew their budget for next year for some time & Soto is a key piece to their potential success. They finished strong in ‘23!!

Did anybody read about the clubhouse problems in San Diego ALL YEAR & their manager bailing to go to the Giants last week! Wouldn’t touch Soto with a 10 ft pole!…….no sense for a one year deal.

Performance risk with both & zero clubhouse risk and $22M less, locks in Max Kepler v. Juan Soto in RF for Twins.

…………………

Unless we offer to pay $10M/yr for the rest of his contract, nobody is trading for Byron Buxton.

7 hours ago, Brandon said:

We were 1rst I think in team HRs

We tied the Rangers for first in AL for HR’s……we lead ALL of baseball in strikeouts.

Pete Alonso - 46 HR is the attraction……151 strikeouts……..we don’t need more HR to take on more K’s……….he hit .217 in ‘23. No thank you!

……………………

Santander, maybe? Seems we would want to promote from within for OF. Martin seems a couple months away in AAA. We have a switch hitting left fielder with speed, if we choose that, with Castro. Gordon, if he comes back physically, can put up similar numbers to Santander with maybe 10 less HR………..$11M less cost. Don’t see a pursuit for this guy.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Came here to throw out another name who MIGHT be available; Vlad Guerrero Jr. I don't know if Toronto would trade him, and I also don't know if he will ever be a superstar, but he is younger than all of the guys you listed and is starting to get expensive (relative to his production) in arbitration. Would be team controlled through 2025 (his age 25 and 26 seasons.)

Curious if this would interest anyone, and also what it could take to acquire him IF he were available.

[TopGunn#22]

While I agree with Doc Bauer to a degree in his post (and generally agree with him on most things) I'm with tony&rodney and chpettit19 on the Juan Soto issue.  I think San Diego is a mess, and I'm not so sure they finished very strong last year.  They will almost certainly be missing their Cy Young Award starter Blake Snell and their All Star closer Josh Hader next season.  Manny Machado wants out.  They will most certainly be open to trading Soto.  

Soto is the same age as Vlad Jr.  They will both be entering their age 25 season.  Machado is almost impossible to trade with the negative value his contract holds so he's not going anywhere.  The Padres are stuck with Machado and they will attempt to rebuild around Tatis and him.  But they ARE cutting payroll.  For the Padres like any other team, it's not just the $33 million Soto will make next year, but the "expected" earnings of his next contract.  Vlad Jr is different because Toronto is not in payroll hell like the Padres.  There is no need for the Blue Jays to move him.

So it comes down to WHO will be bidding for Soto?  I doubt the Dodgers will be.  They're focused on Ohtani and maybe Josh Hader.  The Yankees could be interested but do they have the ability to come up with a better trade offer?  And they still have that massive Giancarlo Stanton contract.  Ughhh.  The Red Sox would have to trade Verdugo or Yoshida to open up a spot for Soto.  Yoshida already has a large contract and Verdugo will cost as much as Kepler.  Not really what San Diego is looking for with salary relief.

So here you have the Twins.  Looking for an elite bat with potential openings at corner OF.  If there is truly some kind of equivalence with Soto's value considering his present and future "cost" and Wallner, with his potential and minimum salary for the next 4-5 years the Twins really should consider it.  Right now, both wallner and Soto carry a BTV of 22.9.  Throw in a Josh Winder 6.0 and maybe even Sabato and I think Soto is a Twin.

To me, this is a classic "sell high" on Wallner.  It's not that I don't think he can continue to improve.  It's that with Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins and Severino/Rosario I can trade Wallner to get an absolutely "ELITE" hitter.  Hit Soto behind Lewis and see what kind of pitches Royce has to see.  Hit Soto ahead of Lewis and see how often Royce comes to bat with Julien and Soto on base.  

The other interesting thing about Soto is that he's 24 years old!!  He'll be 25 during the season next year.  The Twins would have Jenkins and Rodriguez on the way, but if I'm ever going to give a guy an 8-10 year contract, I do it for a guy who's 25.  Not 29.  

With Soto in LF next season, I'd be fine with Kepler in RF, or if we traded Max, Soto would be in RF and maybe a platoon of Larnach and Severino.  With Soto in the lineup, the Twins could accept a slightly below league average LF production. If Brooks Lee makes the team out of spring training you could see more of Julien at 1B and Kirilloff in LF.  When it's all said and done, Losing Wallner for even ONE year of Soto would be worth it.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Count me in the "likely no" category as well, but you always need to check out the possibilities, no matter how crazy they seem.  That also helps you understand how other teams value (or don't value) your players and prospects as well.  I'm generally anti trading away a bunch of prospects for a one year rental player, but for the right (low, low) price, we certainly can listen.

Thinking about the numbers and trade values, if Kepler could be part of the package for Soto (with probably two more pieces), that does take $10M off of the payroll next year and makes Soto fit the budget much better.  His presence also lessens the level of prospects that need to be included.  Even better if one of the guys we don't exactly have a home for like Larnach and/or Miranda.  If the Padres are really interested in a salary dump, I'm there listening. 

[Major League Ready]

On 10/30/2023 at 9:45 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

Well, you can cross Chaz McCormick off that list if you go by BBTV's.  McCormick had a nice season last year but he's 29 years old and his value is 47.2.  That would require a trade of either Joe Ryan 44.8 or Brooks Lee 48.2 and neither of those is going to happen.  I think BBTV's needs to "reevaluate" the value of a 29 year old OF who had a good year last season but had been a below the radar guy before that.  

he was worth 1 WAR more than the twins highest WAR player and he will be in his 1st year of Arbitration next year.  He is not going anywhere.  Neither is Santander unless they get a haul. Baltimore has a total of two players on Vet salary for a total of $13M.  They certainly do not need to clear payroll space.

[cmoss84]

Now that we signed Kepler to 1 more year, we need to package him in a deal for Soto. I don't care if we end up getting only 1 year our of him...although obviously I'd love an extension. 

For those of you a little down on Soto...think about this: there were 10 players in all of MLB with an OPS .900 or higher. This list does not include Kyle Tucker, Corbin Carroll, or Austin Riley. Soto's was .930 in not his best year...