How Everything Can Be Sonny Against the Houston Astros

[Cody Christie]

Sonny Gray is scheduled to take the mound in one of the most critical Twins games in recent memory. How can the veteran right-hander help turn the tide in favor of the Twins on Tuesday?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

From the Twins’ perspective, it would have been great for the Twins to take the first two games in Houston. However, the Astros had the advantage by resting their players through the Wild Card Series and being able to line up their starting pitchers. In MLB’s new playoff format, this is one of the most significant advantages for the top two seeds in each league. Minnesota plays in baseball’s worst division, so winning four extra games in the regular season could have flipped the script in October. 

Instead, the Twins found themselves in a hole, but the team bounced back nicely to take Game 2 in Houston. Sonny Gray has arguably been Minnesota’s best-starting pitcher during the 2023 season, and now he takes the mound in a critical Game 3. There’s a chance this is his last start before reaching free agency for the first time in his career, so he will want to continue his strong season. Here’s how he matches up against the Astros and how the Twins hope it’s always “Sonny” in Minneapolis. 

Previous 2023 Match-Ups with Houston
The Twins took four of six games against the Astros during the regular season, but both series were played before the calendar flipped to June. Gray made two starts against Houston and performed well. On April 7th, Gray made his second start of the year at Target Field, and the Astros were the opponent. He dominated the defending World Series champs by tossing seven innings of one-run ball, including 13 strikeouts, a season-high for Gray. Jeremy Pena struck out four times, while Jose Abreu and Chas McCormick were set down three times. 

Gray’s second appearance versus the Astros came in Houston. In six innings, he allowed three earned runs on five hits with three strikeouts. He let the first two batters reach in the seventh inning before being removed, so two of the runs charged to Gray came after he left the mound. It’s tough to imagine either start having any ramifications on this game since they were so early in the season. The Astros are a different team in the season’s second half, and Gray has been a different pitcher. 

Current Astros Versus Gray
As a veteran pitcher, Gray has faced three Astros hitters in 24 or more plate appearances. Jose Altuve and Jose Abreu lead the way with over 30 plate appearances each, and Abreu is the lone Astros regular who has hit a home run against Gray. Alex Bregman has 12 plate appearances against Gray, and he’s gotten on base over 58% of the time. Yordan Alvarez has gone 1-for-5 with a double and a strikeout, while Kyle Tucker has two doubles in six at-bats. It’s a dangerous Astros lineup, and Gray needs to continue to keep the ball in the park.

Gray kept the ball in the park better than any other American League pitcher in 2023. He led baseball with a 0.39 HR/9, significantly better than any other AL pitcher. Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish (0.75 HR/9) and New York’s Gerrit Cole (0.86 HR/9) rounded out the AL’s top three. Gray didn’t surrender any home runs in his first 11 appearances, and he limited batters to three home runs in his final ten starts. He hasn’t had a game yet in 2023 where he allowed more than one home run <knock on wood>.

You Are My “Son”shine
Gray is 33 years old, and players never know how many opportunities they will get to go on a playoff run. Like many players, he’s told reporters the reason he is still playing is for a chance to win the World Series. He last made a playoff appearance with the Yankees in 2017 when his sons were too young to remember their dad on the mound. That’s made this year’s playoffs even more critical to Gray and his family. 

“Having them be able to watch me play, play with them, them being able to come into the clubhouse, to just be a part of it, that and then winning a World Series, going on a playoff, going on a postseason run, that’s the things that still drive me in this game,” Gray told reporters. “That’s the reason that I still show up and put in the work that I put in.”

The Twins hope Gray continues to put in work for the club and that they can help him reach his goal of winning the World Series. His Game 3 performance is critical for the team’s ultimate goal. Here’s hoping Gray continues to keep things “Sonny” for Twins fans. 

How do you feel about Gray’s match-up against the Astros? How long of a leash will he get in this crucial game? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Muppet]

Assuming Gray wins game 3 (knocking on wood), I'm more worried about Ryan v. Verlander. If we pull out a miracle there, the Twins advance. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

"Having them be able to watch me play, play with them, them being able to come into the clubhouse, to just be a part of it, that and then winning a World Series, going on a playoff, going on a postseason run, that’s the things that still drive me in this game,” Gray told reporters. “That’s the reason that I still show up and put in the work that I put in.”

I always thought we would not have a chance at resigning Gray.  Because we wouldn't give him the best shot at winning in his eyes.  With Pablo and Correa,  that changes the dynamics.  Will be curious to see how his free agency plays out.  I still think the Twins are ok allowing him to walk, but I would be fine if they resigned him.  

[Markdumont25]

I think all those vets in Houston will come ready to hit so I see Sonny having a good but not spectacular start... Maybe two runs in five innings... But I think the bigger advantage is we're past their top two starters and we can just outslug them in game 3 

[RocRedWing]

1 hour ago, Muppet said:

Assuming Gray wins game 3 (knocking on wood), I'm more worried about Ryan v. Verlander. If we pull out a miracle there, the Twins advance. 

You're forgetting that famous joe ryan run support! Twins love pouring it on for him, so here's to lighting up verlander on short rest if that's the case.

[tony&rodney]

Sonny Gray has pitched wonderfully all season for the Twins. The Twins batters have not supported him very well. The bats scoring runs early and often would make everyone, especially Gray, feel better. We can hope that Gray holds the Astros to 3 runs or less in 5 or 6 innings. The offense will have their opportunities and I would sure like to see our quartet of Julien, Kepler, Kirilloff, and Wallner step up on Tuesday.

[CoastiePilot08]

1 hour ago, Muppet said:

Assuming Gray wins game 3 (knocking on wood), I'm more worried about Ryan v. Verlander. If we pull out a miracle there, the Twins advance. 

 Verlander will be on short rest and got lucky the first time. I hope they throw him out there. 

[CoastiePilot08]

36 minutes ago, Markdumont25 said:

I think all those vets in Houston will come ready to hit so I see Sonny having a good but not spectacular start... Maybe two runs in five innings... But I think the bigger advantage is we're past their top two starters and we can just outslug them in game 3 

They weren’t ready to hit against Pablo?

I can see Sonny shutting them down just as easily. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

37 minutes ago, CoastiePilot08 said:

 Verlander will be on short rest and got lucky the first time. I hope they throw him out there. 

This. It's 2023. Not 2012. If they trot Verlander out there on 3 days rest, they'll regret it.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Gray's a bulldog and he's pitching with a sense of urgency. It won't be easy but I think he will outpitch Javier. And I think the homefield advantage is going to loom really large on Tuesday and Wednesday.

[IaBeanCounter]

Houston is a strange team in that they scored 16 fewer runs than there opponent at home and scored 145 more runs than their opponent on the road.   From 8/31 their records against playoff contenders was 9-3 (Tx, Balt, Sea, AZ) but against the rest they were 4-11 (NYY, KC (1-5). Oak and SD).

Game 3 is just as important as game 2 in that I don't believe we can afford to lose it.  I feel we need a great start from Sonny, but I am hoping he will be able to go 5 innnings as Lopez was on but still had 105 pitches after 7 innings.  The Astros will make Sonny work.

 

 

 

[Linus]

You know Sonny will compete. He’s a bulldog. The worry I have is that the Astros will run his pitch count up quickly because Sonny doesn’t give in. Even though I like our playoff bullpen much more than our regular season bullpen I still see it as our greatest risk. Hopefully our lefty lineup breaks out and gets a lead. That might allow Sonny to attack more and stay in the game longer. 

[singlesoverwalks]

Baseball Reference link to the boxscore for Sonny Gray's great appearance against the Astros in the 2017 playoffs. And this was with the trash can. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201710170.shtml

[JoshDungan1]

8 hours ago, Muppet said:

Assuming Gray wins game 3 (knocking on wood), I'm more worried about Ryan v. Verlander. If we pull out a miracle there, the Twins advance. 

Thankfully it sounds like it would be Pablo vs. Verlander in Game 5, with a TBD on the starter in Game 4 for the 'Stros.

[glunn]

I hope/pray that Sonny will make a statement by going 7 shutout innings to match or exceed Pablo.

[Karbo]

Lets hope AK and Wallner wake up from their post season slumber, and it will be a sonny day in Mn.