Marco Raya Is Refining His Repertoire in Cedar Rapids

[Cody Christie]

Marco Raya had a breakout season in 2022 at Low-A and ranked among the top pitching prospects in the Twins organization. Now in his age-20 season, he is looking to redefine himself as he climbs the organizational ladder.

Image courtesy of McKenzie Short, Cedar Rapids Kernels

The Twins drafted Marco Raya in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB Draft out of high school in Texas. It was a strange draft year with limited rounds and no ability to scout players in the weeks leading into the draft. A player like Raya might have gained more steam with a strong spring season, but the Twins were happy to have him still available with the club’s penultimate pick. Drafting and developing high school pitchers can take patience, but the Twins might have a potential top-of-the-rotation pitcher in Raya. 

Minnesota pushed back Raya’s professional debut until the 2022 season because of a shoulder strain. Minnesota was still aggressive with him by sending him to Low-A, where he was three years younger than the average age of the competition in the FSL. It was also important to limit his innings because of the previous year’s shoulder issues, but he showed plenty of upside in his 65 innings. In 19 appearances (17 starts), he posted a 3.05 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and a 76-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He faced older batters in 82.5% of his plate appearances and solidified himself as one of the team’s top starting pitching prospects. 

Following the season, Raya’s prospect stock was rising. Baseball Prospectus was the only national outlet to rank Raya among baseball’s Top 100 prospects, ranking him 53rd overall. At Twins Daily, he ranked as the fourth-best Twins prospect, ranking higher than any other pitcher. It was a meteoric rise for a player with fewer than 70 innings pitched in his professional career, but there were reasons to be excited about Raya entering the 2023 campaign. 

There were a few hiccups in Raya’s first two starts of the season. He allowed five earned runs on four hits over 5 2/3 innings, with opponents posting a .939 OPS against him. Raya ran off seven straight starts from there, allowing one earned run or less. In 22 innings, he posted a 1.23 ERA with a 27-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Twins continue to limit his innings as he has yet to pitch more than four innings or throw more than 54 pitches. Raya continues to improve his whiff rate and strikeout percentage.  

Raya’s elite-level spin rates on his two best pitches have helped him miss a lot of bats to this point in his career. His fastball can reach the upper-90s, and the high spin rate makes it a tough pitch for batters to make consistent contact. His slider sits in the low-80s and is his best secondary pitch. He typically features a four-pitch mix, but he continues to develop his curveball and changeup. Raya can throw all four pitches for strikes and is at his best when he pounds the strike zone and avoids walks. 

Marco Raya is an undersized player who MiLB.com lists at 6-foot-1 and 170 pounds. There is also some concern because the Twins have limited his workload because of his early career injury concerns. Minnesota has seen success from undersized pitchers, including Jose Berrios pitching at an All-Star level for multiple seasons. Raya’s future as a starting pitcher is tied to his ability to improve secondary pitches and increase his workload. He doesn’t turn 21 until August, so he has plenty of time to continue developing in the Twins system. According to MLB.com, the front office has “fielded plenty of calls from other teams asking about Raya.” That might be one of the team’s best signs to keep him long-term. 

How do you view Raya’s start to the season? What is his ceiling? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Dman]

HIs pitch movement is Berrios like or better.  Just crazy movement on some of his secondary's.  HIs stats look great and I love the sub 1 WHIP.  K rate around 30% and xFIP and ERA pretty much match.  The numbers make him look rock solid to this point.  Just needs to keep those innings up and stay healthy and he should be a good one.

[gman]

I'm hoping Raya is up in '25, along with Prielipp. From a health stand point, Raya may be ahead but he needs to get extended later this year or waiting until next? Cory Lewis is also in that rotation and could get here next year? Hidalgo could also be  in the rotation but needs to find the strike zone more.

[2wins87]

Really hard not to make comparisons Berrios.  There is even a little delivery similarity with the slide step in his stride.

I remember the biggest knock on Berrios was always durability as well.  Looking at Berrios now and through his later years with the Twins, he is still undersized for a starter, but is pretty built, with super broad shoulders, and I think that is a big part of his durability.  I don't remember how quickly he built up that strength or if he still had a more slight build early in his mlb career, but he always worked very hard on conditioning and he's been remarkably healthy in his career.

Raya has the same knock, and looking at him now he still has a somewhat slight build, but I could see him putting on muscle like Berrios. Raya has already dealt with a few health issues early on though too, so that is a difference from Berrios.

I don't think we're going to see Raya pitching 6 innings anytime soon, rather it will be a slow build with lots of conditioning work in the background.  If they can keep him healthy though it could be a great benefit to his ultimate career and his chances to start long term.

[roger]

Loved this pick when made and had to do a double take when you said he is 20 years old.  I would have thought he is at least a year older.

Like the comparisons to Berrios, my only hope is that the one difference is that the Twins are able to extend him long-term.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Really hard not to make comparisons Berrios.  There is even a little delivery similarity with the slide step in his stride.

I remember the biggest knock on Berrios was always durability as well.  Looking at Berrios now and through his later years with the Twins, he is still undersized for a starter, but is pretty built, with super broad shoulders, and I think that is a big part of his durability.  I don't remember how quickly he built up that strength or if he still had a more slight build early in his mlb career, but he always worked very hard on conditioning and he's been remarkably healthy in his career.

I think the real difference between the two is Berrios was given a real chance to pitch at age 20 Berrios was A+ and AA pitching 140 innings, Raya is in A+ and currently has 31 innings after only pitching 65 last year. Berrios pitched 103 as 19 year old.

IMO I think this puts Raya behind Berrios at least in his development, which isn't the end of the world.

[2wins87]

Just now, TwinsDr2021 said:

I think the real difference between the two is Berrios was given a real chance to pitch at age 20 Berrios was A+ and AA pitching 140 innings, Raya is in A+ and currently has 31 innings after only pitching 65 last year. Berrios pitched 103 as 19 year old.

IMO I think this puts Raya behind Berrios at least in his development, which isn't the end of the world.

I think you are looking at it backwards.  Berrios pitched 140 innings because he was healthy.

Raya hasn't been particularly healthy.  He missed all of 2021 because of his shoulder.  He started this year on the IL because of his shoulder.  I don't remember many specifics around his skipped starts last year probably because there weren't any details out there.  One stint was wisdom teeth, but there were two other stints when he missed one or two turns in the rotation.  I can only speculate but I would have to think that there were additional physical concerns beyond just the typical soreness/tiredness that comes after throwing a bunch of baseballs over 90 mph.

Probably they are being very far towards the cautious end of the scale, but I don't see how we could expect him to stay healthy if they were to just let him pitch more.  If they can get him through the season without a more serious injury I think it's a win, and it's much easier for him to continue working on conditioning behind the scenes if he's healthy as well.

[TwinsDr2021]

20 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

I think you are looking at it backwards.  Berrios pitched 140 innings because he was healthy.

 

I stand behind my final statement.

"IMO I think this puts Raya behind Berrios at least in his development, which isn't the end of the world. "

[DocBauer]

My favorite draft selection from 2020 then, and now. From day 1 something just said "potential steal" to me.

I'm as anxious as anyone to see him start tossing 5-6 innings per. But I'm OK that they are nurturing him a brining him along slowly. HS arms are the most unpredictable of prospects, for many reasons. Despite a couple shoulder flare-ups, never heard as much as a whisper that there was anything to be concerned about. It feels more Ike a young kid still growing in to his body, and they want to let that happen naturally and not place unnecessary strain at this point. 

And I'm OK with that. Hopefully he starts running more 4-5 IP games the second half. But I like the idea of staying in the rotation for the full season, on limited innings, working on refining his stuff, rather than pushing for IP and then shutting him down early. 

Keep working with him, get the full season out of him, let him build up, go to instructs, have a good offseason, and get ready for more in 2024.

I've got a lot of hope for this kid.