Have the Twins Improved Defensively in 2023?

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota acquired multiple strong defenders during the offseason to add a missing dimension to the club. How has the team's defense ranked through the first third of the season?

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) developed is the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). 

According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, SDI has been used as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are through games played on June 4, 2023. 

Pitcher (AL Ranking): Pablo Lopez 0.7 SDI (11th), Sonny Gray 0.0 SDI (21st), Joe Ryan -0.1 SDI (28th) 
Pitcher defense can be tough to evaluate because of the limited number of plays the position must field. Lopez is the top Twin on the leaderboard, but Zack Greinke (1.6 SDI) is at the top with more than double Lopez's SDI score. Multiple former Twins populate the rankings, including Lance Lynn (1.4 SDI), Tyler Wells (0.8 SDI), Kyle Gibson (0.6 SDI), Martin Perez (0.5 SDI), and Jose Berrios (0.1 SDI). Pitchers can move up and down the leaderboard more easily during the season, so it will be interesting to see how the top Twins pitchers fare by the season's end.  

Catcher (AL Ranking): Christian Vazquez 1.1 SDI (8th), Ryan Jeffers 0.7 SDI (10th)
Vazquez was known for his defensive abilities when the Twins signed him during the offseason. Last season, he ranked fifth in the AL with a 5.3 SDI and continues to rank well at the start of the 2023 campaign. Since joining the Twins, his framing has improved from the 55th percentile to the 63rd percentile. Jeffers has been known for his pitch-framing ability, but he's struggled to control the run game. Last season, he ranked in the 64th percentile for framing, while his pop time to second base was in the 44th percentile. His framing dropped to the 40th percentile in 2023, but his pop time improved to the 51st percentile. 

First Base (AL Ranking): Joey Gallo -0.2 SDI (6th)
Gallo has never been a regular at first base, but the Twins had a need at the position to begin the year. Alex Kirilloff has been getting more regular reps at first since he returned from injury, so Gallo will likely fall off this leaderboard in future updates. According to FanGraphs, Kirilloff has been worth -4 Defensive Runs Saved in 155 innings at first base. Only five AL first basemen have posted a positive SDI, with Nathaniel Lowe (2.6 SDI) and Anthony Rizzo (2.6 SDI) at the top. 

Second Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify
Injuries have impacted regular playing time for any players at second base, with Jorge Polanco and Edouard Julien getting most of the playing time. Last season, Polanco ranked 13th among AL second basemen with a -2.7 SDI. Only three players ranked below him, including Nicky Lopez, Rougned Odor, and Jose Altuve. The Twins continue to use Julien only at second base, and his defense is not strong at the position. He's been worth -3 defensive runs saved in his first 140 defensive innings at the big league level. Monitoring how Polanco looks defensively when he returns from his hamstring injury will be interesting. 

Third Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify
The Twins hoped Jose Miranda would thrive at third base in 2023, but that plan didn't come to fruition. Even if Miranda were at third, his defense would likely struggle. In nearly 280 innings at third, FanGraphs valued him at -3.9 DEF, which was worse than his pace last year when he had a -9.3 DEF. Royce Lewis is playing third base regularly for the first time in his career, so it will be interesting to see how the defensive metrics view him at the hot corner. In nine starts, he has been worth one defensive run saved at third, but it's a small sample size. 

Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa -0.6 SDI (10th)
Correa dominated the SDI rankings in his final season in Houston, but the Twins have not seen that player over the last two seasons. He started last season slowly and posted a negative SDI through the first portion of the season. Luckily, his defense improved in the second half, and he finished with a 1.6 SDI, ranking ninth in the AL. Correa hasn't started the season as badly, so fans will have to watch if his plantar fasciitis impacts his defense throughout the season.

Left Field (AL Ranking): Trevor Larnach -1.0 SDI (9th)
Chicago's Andrew Benintendi is the lone qualified AL left fielder with a lower SDI than Larnach. Other defensive metrics also place Larnach near the bottom of the league. He ranks in the eighth percentile for outfield jump, 34th percentile for arm strength, and 45th percentile for outs above average. His arm strength was in the 67th percentile last season, so that area should improve throughout the season. In 2022, Nick Gordon finished fifth among AL left fielders in SDI, but he won't be back on the field until later this season after fracturing his right shin. 

Center Field (AL Ranking): Michael A. Taylor 0.7 SDI (7th)
Some Twins fans would rather have Byron Buxton manning center field, but Taylor came to the Twins with a solid defensive reputation. In his age-32 season, Taylor ranks in the 88th percentile for Outs Above Average, and his arm strength is in the 83rd percentile. His outfield jump has taken the biggest hit this year, dropping from the 74th percentile in 2022 to the 50th percentile in 2023. Fans will continue to clamor for Buxton to take over regular center field duties, but that seems unlikely to happen with his injury history.

Right Field (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify
Max Kepler finished the 2022 season as a finalist for the Gold Glove in right field before losing out to Kyle Tucker. He posted a 6.3 SDI, which ranked second in the AL behind Tucker (7.1 SDI). He was elite in the outfield, with an Outs Above Average in the 97th percentile. In 2023, Kepler ranks in the 67th percentile for Outs Above Average and in the 73rd percentile for arm strength. Most of Kepler's value comes on the defensive side of the ball, so he should jump onto the leaderboard when he qualifies later this season. 

Are you surprised by any of these defensive rankings? Who will rank highest by the season's end? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Beast]

Not sure how reliable these numbers are.  The eye test tells me Correa and Taylor are better than that.  If they are reliable, my takeaway is to get Buxton back in CF.

Seeing those numbers in left field (assuming it’s reliable) makes me realize how silly it is that we’re playing Larnach there so often at the expense of one of the best defensive outfielders in the game (Gallo).  

Add it to the list of head scratching moves by this club.  There seems to be value in various guys that is wasted.

 

[roger]

Very interesting read, thanks.

I don't understand Keps not qualifying in right field.  I know he was on the IL for a bit, but he seems to be out there most of the time.  Are my eyes watching games deceiving me?

Don't understand Correa being negative.  I have seen most of the games on tv and he looks awfully good with an unbelievable arm.

[Aerodeliria]

The Twins are in the bottom five for errors committed...that excludes blunders that don't count as errors, which seem to occur every couple of games...so, no, the Twins are not better. I think there is a direct relation to how much emphasis there is on boring routines, such as taking 25 swings in BP or practicing outfield throws or turning double plays, etc. I've heard on a number of occasions that these fundamental elements have never been a strong focus for the current regime.

[Cody Christie]

19 hours ago, roger said:

Don't understand Correa being negative.  I have seen most of the games on tv and he looks awfully good with an unbelievable arm.

Since joining the Twins, I think they have been positioning Correa differently than he was used in Houston and that impacts some of the defensive metrics.

[Cody Christie]

19 hours ago, Beast said:

Seeing those numbers in left field (assuming it’s reliable) makes me realize how silly it is that we’re playing Larnach there so often at the expense of one of the best defensive outfielders in the game (Gallo).  

Add it to the list of head scratching moves by this club.  There seems to be value in various guys that is wasted.

I think the team is more comfortable with Gallo at first base than some of the other options. With Kirilloff now playing regularly at first, Gallo should get more reps in left field. I would expect future SDI rankings to have him as an outfielder. 

[Linus]

I feel they are better defensively this year. Jeffers has improved behind the plate and Miranda and Celestino aren’t playing which helps a bunch. About the only poor fielder they are rolling out there is Julien and that is only because Polanco is hurt. 

[Cody Christie]

Here's the regulars from 2022:

 

And here's who has played the most so far in 2023:

Improved Positions: C, CF, 1B (w/ Gallo)
Worsened Positions: 2B (Julien hurts the position), LF, 3B 
Push: SS, RF

Thoughts?

[MABB1959]

Is that Buxton in the picture if it is LOL.  

[Cody Christie]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

Is that Buxton in the picture if it is LOL.  

No, it's Michael A. Taylor in the picture since he was one of the players acquired this winter with a strong defensive resume.

[Cris E]

In 2022 we only ended up with Gordon and Celestino as regulars because of injuries. In April no one expected either to be a regular anywhere on the field, and that list of 2023 regulars has some of the same smell right now.  In October I expect at least two more of the 2023 spots to be the pre-season favorites (Kirriloff, Gallo) and I'd be shocked if Lewis doesn't replace Miranda as the new face that seizes a spot. But Buxton and Polanco are bumming me out, because I was hoping they'd be well this year. Ah well, it's an article about defense and we didn't get worse so I should be pleased that we didn't go total slow-pitch softball out there.

[Mark G]

On 6/15/2023 at 6:13 PM, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I'd say no they are not better. I'll say it again... having a team of players that can play multiple positions is all fine and good except when they make errors for not getting consistent reps at one position.  Many of the miscues are due to lack of familiarity with the position that they are being asked to play.  One example is Solano at FB.

Absolutely!  This regime has always believed we have 13 interchangeable parts, if you count catchers batting DH every now and then.  That has never been true, is not true now, and will never be true.  I have been saying for years:  put your best players in the positions they play the best.  The others are bench players/reserves.  They are not all equal!  

[stringer bell]

I'm a bit concerned about Lewis at third and holding my breath with Julien at second. Lewis has shown plenty of athleticism, but has booted a couple balls and made a few bad throws. Julien just isn't a natural fielder. I know he works hard, but he's already cost a few outs and he's been replaced in the late innings when the Twins have a lead.

[Linus]

13 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I'm a bit concerned about Lewis at third and holding my breath with Julien at second. Lewis has shown plenty of athleticism, but has booted a couple balls and made a few bad throws. Julien just isn't a natural fielder. I know he works hard, but he's already cost a few outs and he's been replaced in the late innings when the Twins have a lead.

I’ve had similar thoughts. One difference is the overall athletic ability of each player. Royce will likely improve wherever they play him but Julien just doesn’t have it. 

[goulik]

On 6/16/2023 at 8:32 AM, Cody Christie said:

Here's the regulars from 2022:

 

And here's who has played the most so far in 2023:

Improved Positions: C, CF, 1B (w/ Gallo)
Worsened Positions: 2B (Julien hurts the position), LF, 3B 
Push: SS, RF

Thoughts?

This supports my thoughts as I read the first few comments: the “eye test” and the comparison to last year by “memory” leads us to forget last years defenders.