Opportunity Awaits Edouard Julien

[Fire Dan Gladden]

A higher-end prospect, now MLB rookie, being inconsistent at the big league level.  Should we really be surprised?

Pump the brakes and show some patience here...

[jmlease1]

I love Julien's eye at the plate. I hope the lack of the electronic strike zone and the occasionally wobbly umpiring doesn't cause him to alter his approach and expand his zone. His ability to get on base would make him a real asset at the top of the lineup if he's able to keep taking walks while being a threat at the dish. I like his hit tool a lot, and he's been looking good at the plate in this latest call-up. It's still a small sample, so it'll be interesting to see if he can keep this up.

The defense isn't good. His arm is below par and he makes routine plays look harder than they need to be at times. Despite his experience at 2B, he doesn't seem to have great instincts there for where to go and what to do when a play is coming into his zone. He could certainly improve; despite his age he doesn't have tons of game experience at 2B (Jose Miranda, despite not playing any 2B in MLB is basically even with Julien in innings played in the minors) so maybe he'll develop more with time.

I do like that bat and eye at the plate, though!

[tony&rodney]

Julien has a good eye at the plate to get on base, makes the pitchers work hard, can hit for some power, can run a bit, and could hit for average. 

All eyes and comments stress that he doesn't look good (awkward) defensively and even the routine plays aren't smooth. This is true as an observation. Yet, the plays are generally made and the idea he has hurt the team with his defense just hasn't happened yet. He makes an odd flip to Correa, who throws the ball away and Kirilloff fails to dig out the throw. Folks, including Morneau, put the blame on Julien.  Julien forced Correa to throw the ball away when he had time to adjust with a slow runner? Farmer makes a clean relay, Correa makes a strong throw to first and the batter is safe. The play gets highlighted by Morneau but it wasn't effective. Julien will not win a Gold Glove any time soon, but he makes plays and gets to batted balls in respectful numbers. I'm not a fan of defensive metrics. I trust my eyes much more than some data points even though they mostly agree with what I see. Miranda was brutal at first base and Arraez wasn't much better. Arraez was decent at second base but panned the last few years. The optics where Julien looks hesitant and mechanical are not important if he can get the ball and the out. 

Nevertheless, it is what Julien does at the plate that will determine his career. If he can get on base at a .400 or better clip and hit for some power, I'm thinking that is good for runs and victories. I will immediately comment when I see Julien hurting the team with his glove but it hasn't happened yet, which may or may not be a coincidence.

[High heat]

I really like Juliens bat and plate discipline is very hard to teach, being more aggressive could help him.  He is not Arraez with the eye and contact ability.
 

He is a butcher at 2B, he can’t plays there in his current state long term.  With 1B and DH covered I could really see Julien as the big trade piece at the deadline. 
 

Now I wouldn’t move him unless it was for a major piece but his bat might be something that moves the needle.

[JoeCool]

I want to see Julien’s bat in the lineup at DH every day.  He belongs with his bat. Fielding needs a lot of work though. 

Get Buxton off the bench and in the field with his bat being only marginal this year. He is an elite fielder and right now it’s worth the risk to just put him in the field.  If Buxton goes down with an injury we have Taylor as a serviceable backup as Buxton heals, but I really see Julien as an upgrade to Buxton at DH and Buxton as an upgrade to Taylor in CF. If Taylor’s bat struggles we can float Royce Lewis to CF as well.   

We should not trade Julien. We need competent hitters with a more complete approach in the lineup and with his approach he can be a catalyst for rallies.

[Cody Pirkl]

It’s been a disappointing season for Jorge Polanco whose injury history may finally be catching up to him. With his future in question, the keys to second base will be turned over to Edouard Julien. Is he up to the task?

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Jorge Polanco has dealt with a fair amount of lower body injuries in his career. After knee issues ended his 2022 season, Polanco got off to a late start to 2023 before hamstring issues sidelined him. With the same issue landing him on the IL again, this recent injury is likely to keep him down for a solid stretch. While disappointing for Polanco and the Twins, Edouard Julien is the recipient of a massive opportunity to show why the Twins are such big fans.

Julien has been an on-base machine throughout his minor league career. Though he did have his fair share of whiffs, he had been able to limit the punch outs to under 25% of his plate appearances in his last two minor league seasons while approaching a near 20% walk rate. As could be expected, neither has translated directly to his MLB debut, with a walk rate of around 11% and a bloated 34.6% K rate. 

It’s fair to say Julien hasn’t quite hit his stride yet, especially when it comes to controlling the strike zone. That becomes a scary thought considering the rookie is already slashing .260/.353/.493, good for 35% above league average.

For a hitter with such an advanced plate approach, one may expect him to adjust quickly, and that’s exactly what Julien has done. While continuing to flash his power at the plate, the former 18th-round pick from Auburn via Quebec has continued to improve month over month in his sporadic MLB debut season.

In addition to the increase in walk rate, Julien reduced his whiff % from 44.2 to 38.7 from April to May, and has only swung and missed about 15% of the time in his two games since being recalled. They’re all small samples, but signs of adjustment nonetheless. 

Aside from plate discipline, Julien has some other questions to answer while Polanco is away. For starters, Julien has yet to prove much against left-handed pitching. It may be a lack of opportunity, as the Twins have only allowed him to take seven plate appearances against southpaws and will likely continue to platoon him to some degree. He’ll still likely get the occasional lefty-on-lefty matchup, and if he can capitalize on a few opportunities, it’s possible he opens the Twins’ eyes to him being a capable everyday player. For as well as Julien is expected to hit right-handed pitchers, even holding his own against lefties would take his already can’t-miss bat to an entirely different level.

The biggest question, of course, is the defense. For how athletic Edouard Julien clearly is, reports have had him stretched as a second baseman, and early results in the MLB have so far matched up. In just 140 innings at second base, Julien has been worth -3 Defensive Runs Saved. Outs Above Average grades him at -3 as well in his limited time in the field. His defensive struggles have been apparent on the most superficial levels, as despite just one official error, he’s had a handful of awkward-looking plays. 

Julien is presented with an opportunity. Jorge Polanco’s contract for 2024 has already vested for $10.5m, but the Twins have a $1m buyout. Make no mistake, that’s an absolute bargain for a player at Polanco’s skill level. That being said, the injuries could be on the verge of spinning out of control. Julien could put some thoughts in the front offices’ heads about his future on the club beyond 2023 if the bat continues to play, and the defense is even passable. Polanco seems like a near-impossible hole to fill, but in the business of baseball, young, effective, cost-controlled players can push front offices into some difficult decisions.

In the near term, the Twins are missing one of the more underrated pieces of their lineup as they have been for much of the season. The hope is that Julien proves to be the leadoff hitter this lineup has missed all year, and that when and if Polanco is ready to return, Julien has done enough to make it more than just a procedural move to send him back to St. Paul.

We’ve heard about Edouard Julien for some time, and he finally has an extended opportunity to show what he can do. Can he be part of the solution in what has been a frustrating Twins lineup, or will we be counting down the days until Jorge Polanco’s return?

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[jorgenswest]

This line up needs Julien’s bat and strike zone awareness.

I wonder if first base is the spot. I think Kirilloff can play RF adequately. There will be openings on the corners in 2024 and hopefully sooner.

[Riverbrian]

Jorge Polanco played 2B and SS in the minors. 

In 2015 he primarily played SS in Chattanooga.

In 2016 he switched to primarily playing 2B in Rochester. It was odd timing because the Twins moved him back to SS primarily when he got called up to the big club although he did get some 3B and 2B action. 

Why did the Twins shift him to 2B in the minors before promoting him to play SS in the majors. 

SS was where the need for him was and they probably don't have a crystal ball to able to predict the needs of the team at the time.      

In 2017 Jorge Polanco was our primary SS for the next 4 years. The Twins made the playoffs in 3 of those 4 years. 

In 2021 Jorge Polanco shifted to become our primary 2B. 

The point of bringing up Jorge Polanco is this. 

If you staple Julien to 2B... his fate is blocked by Polanco... If you allow Julien to flow into where he is most needed that also makes some sense... You can find a spot for a bat that looks like it will improve this club. 

Julien to 1B, Kirilloff to the OF... Easy Peasy.  

 

[mnfireman]

SSS for sure, but since his recall Julien is slashing .429/.556/.714 in 4 games, and if you go back to May 1 (actually May 20 when he was recalled for the second time), his slash line is .286/.400/.531. 

Polanco in the 7 games he played after returning from the IL (the second time, he is now on his third trip to the IL this season) has a slash of .120/.154/.324, and if you go back to May 1, his slash line is .210/.273/.383.

According to defensive metrics (hate those) they are about the same in the field. This is backed up by the eye test. Polanco may have a slight advantage in range and arm strength.

[Major League Ready]

He has been getting better and better offensively.  The last 4 weeks his line is 286 / 400 / 531 with a 931 OPS.  Who else do we have anywhere near a 400 OBP?  The defense is bad and will hurt in run prevention, but the run creation will hopefully significantly outweigh the defense short cummings.

It would appear that he has a better eye than a lot of the umpires.  He has had a lot of bad calls.  He will be even better if that does not happen quite as often as it has lately.   

BTW .... Coirrea's OPS over the past 4 weeks is .895.  That's helping too.  Now, if Buxton can get going we will really have something.    

[ashbury]

Did a couple of threads get merged, to the detriment of both?