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Jorge Polanco has dealt with a fair amount of lower body injuries in his career. After knee issues ended his 2022 season, Polanco got off to a late start to 2023 before hamstring issues sidelined him. With the same issue landing him on the IL again, this recent injury is likely to keep him down for a solid stretch. While disappointing for Polanco and the Twins, Edouard Julien is the recipient of a massive opportunity to show why the Twins are such big fans.
Julien has been an on-base machine throughout his minor league career. Though he did have his fair share of whiffs, he had been able to limit the punch outs to under 25% of his plate appearances in his last two minor league seasons while approaching a near 20% walk rate. As could be expected, neither has translated directly to his MLB debut, with a walk rate of around 11% and a bloated 34.6% K rate.
It’s fair to say Julien hasn’t quite hit his stride yet, especially when it comes to controlling the strike zone. That becomes a scary thought considering the rookie is already slashing .260/.353/.493, good for 35% above league average.
For a hitter with such an advanced plate approach, one may expect him to adjust quickly, and that’s exactly what Julien has done. While continuing to flash his power at the plate, the former 18th-round pick from Auburn via Quebec has continued to improve month over month in his sporadic MLB debut season.
In addition to the increase in walk rate, Julien reduced his whiff % from 44.2 to 38.7 from April to May, and has only swung and missed about 15% of the time in his two games since being recalled. They’re all small samples, but signs of adjustment nonetheless.
Aside from plate discipline, Julien has some other questions to answer while Polanco is away. For starters, Julien has yet to prove much against left-handed pitching. It may be a lack of opportunity, as the Twins have only allowed him to take seven plate appearances against southpaws and will likely continue to platoon him to some degree. He’ll still likely get the occasional lefty-on-lefty matchup, and if he can capitalize on a few opportunities, it’s possible he opens the Twins’ eyes to him being a capable everyday player. For as well as Julien is expected to hit right-handed pitchers, even holding his own against lefties would take his already can’t-miss bat to an entirely different level.
The biggest question, of course, is the defense. For how athletic Edouard Julien clearly is, reports have had him stretched as a second baseman, and early results in the MLB have so far matched up. In just 140 innings at second base, Julien has been worth -3 Defensive Runs Saved. Outs Above Average grades him at -3 as well in his limited time in the field. His defensive struggles have been apparent on the most superficial levels, as despite just one official error, he’s had a handful of awkward-looking plays.
Julien is presented with an opportunity. Jorge Polanco’s contract for 2024 has already vested for $10.5m, but the Twins have a $1m buyout. Make no mistake, that’s an absolute bargain for a player at Polanco’s skill level. That being said, the injuries could be on the verge of spinning out of control. Julien could put some thoughts in the front offices’ heads about his future on the club beyond 2023 if the bat continues to play, and the defense is even passable. Polanco seems like a near-impossible hole to fill, but in the business of baseball, young, effective, cost-controlled players can push front offices into some difficult decisions.
In the near term, the Twins are missing one of the more underrated pieces of their lineup as they have been for much of the season. The hope is that Julien proves to be the leadoff hitter this lineup has missed all year, and that when and if Polanco is ready to return, Julien has done enough to make it more than just a procedural move to send him back to St. Paul.
We’ve heard about Edouard Julien for some time, and he finally has an extended opportunity to show what he can do. Can he be part of the solution in what has been a frustrating Twins lineup, or will we be counting down the days until Jorge Polanco’s return?
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