Minnesota Twins 2016 Draft Retrospective: Plenty of Big-League Talent

[Cody Christie]

The 2016 MLB Draft would be the final draft with Terry Ryan serving as general manager. Which players from that draft have impacted the big-league level, and are others on the way?

 

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Major League Baseball's 2023 Draft is scheduled to start on July 9, 2023. Each team prepares for the draft with a specific plan, and sometimes those plans play out better than others. To prepare fans for the upcoming draft, this series will examine recent Twins drafts and how those players have performed so far in their professional careers.  

First Round (15th Overall): Alex Kirilloff
Minnesota selected high school outfielder Alex Kirilloff with their first-round pick in 2016. He quickly became one of the Twins' best prospects and was a consensus top-100 global prospect from 2019-2021. His breakout campaign came in 2018 when he hit .348/.392/.578 (.970) with 44 doubles, seven triples, and 20 home runs in 130 games. He was named the Twins minor league player of the year and had the potential to be one of the best-hitting prospects to come through the organization in quite some time. 

Injuries have drastically altered Kirilloff's career. He had Tommy John surgery while still in the minor leagues, and he's dealt with wrist injuries over the last two seasons. The Twins recently ended his rehab stint and assigned him to Triple-A. Kirilloff hasn't been able to play every day since returning from his most recent wrist surgery, but he has posted terrific numbers when on the field. The Twins will continue to build him up slowly and monitor how his wrist handles an increased workload. Minnesota hopes Kirilloff can be part of the team's core moving forward, but he must prove he can stay healthy. 

Second Round: Ben Rortvedt, Jose Miranda, Akil Baddoo
Minnesota selected Rortvedt with the 56th overall pick in 2016. He worked through the Twins system before debuting during the 2021 season. The Twins traded Rortvedt to the Yankees as part of the Josh Donaldson trade. He has dealt with injuries since the deal and has yet to appear in a big-league game for the club. Rortvedt is considered a strong defensive catcher with little offensive upside. 

Following Rortvedt, the Twins had two consecutive picks late in the second round, Jose Miranda (73rd overall) and Akil Baddoo (74th overall). Minnesota took Miranda out of high school in Puerto Rico and has put himself into the team's long-term plans. In 2021, Miranda hit .344/.401/.572 (.973) with 32 doubles and 30 home runs on the way to being named the organization's minor league player of the year. Last year, he had an up-and-down season but still posted a 115 OPS+ in 125 games. Based on this performance, Minnesota traded Gio Urshela to open third base for Miranda, and he has struggled to start the season. 

Baddoo never appeared in a big-league game for the Twins because the Detroit Tigers selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. He had a terrific rookie season in 2021 with 40 extra-base hits and a 112 OPS+ in 124 games. Over the last two seasons, he has struggled to replicate those numbers, with ten extra-base hits and a 66 OPS+ in 94 games. Initially, it looked like the Twins missed out on a solid outfield regular, but his flaws have become more evident over the last two seasons. 

Other Notable Picks: Griffin Jax, Jordan Balazovic, Tyler Wells
Jax was drafted with the 93rd overall pick from the United States Air Force Academy. He was primarily used as a starting pitcher in the minors with mixed results, so the Twins shifted him to a bullpen role. Over the last two seasons, he has developed into one of the team's most reliable relievers. According to FanGraphs, Jax was the third most valuable reliever for the Twins last season behind Jhoan Duran and Caleb Thielbar. The team continues to use him in high-leverage situations, and he's vital to the bullpen's long-term success. 

Balazovic was one of the team's top-ranked pitching prospects entering last season, but a lot has changed over the last year. He struggled through much of the 2022 season before ending the year on a high note. In spring training this year, someone punched him in the mouth and broke his jaw. This incident set him back to start the year, but he has moved into a starting role at Triple-A. There is a good chance he will make his big-league debut this season since he is already on the 40-man roster.

Like Baddoo, Wells was selected in the Rule 5 Draft and has accumulated more WAR than any other Twins draft pick from 2016. The Orioles used Wells in the bullpen during the 2021 season but shifted him to a starting role last season. In 103 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.25 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a 76-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has performed even better in 2023 with a 132 OPS+ through his first six appearances, including drops in his hit and walk rates. It's interesting to think about how Wells would have fit into the Twins' pitching plan. 

Kirilloff and Miranda's performance connects to the club's long-term success at the big-league level. It seemed likely for both hitters to be penciled into the middle of the line-up for the next decade, but adjustments might need to be made to that plan. In this draft, the Twins clearly identified multiple players capable of providing value at the big-league level. 

Who makes the more significant long-term impact for the Twins, Kirilloff or Miranda? Should the team have left Baddoo and Wells unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[roger]

Including the guys that are gone, was an unbelievable draft.  

[Rosterman]

Caleb Hamilton was also in the mix. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Whether the Twins should have protected the two that got away needs more info. Who were the players kept that took the spots they would have gotten? What were the teams needs at the time? Then you always have to wonder if the player got some instruction that helped that the Twins would not of given them.

[2wins87]

3 hours ago, roger said:

Including the guys that are gone, was an unbelievable draft.  

Is it?

The Ryan regime had a string of much worse drafts for several years prior, so it is much better in comparison.  But so far it seems decent with the potential to be pretty good.  As these things go, even 7 years is usually not enough time to judge a draft, give it another 2 or 3 years and we should actually have a decent idea.

So far the two highest WAR producers are Wells and Baddoo, but I don't think either were mistakes that they were left unprotected, especially considering the injuries that meant neither had played competitively for almost 2 years when each was selected.

Baddoo is looking like a rookie fluke at this point.  I think he can get back to being an average-ish hitter with average-ish defense in a corner outfield spot.  But that is more of a 4th outfielder role on a good team.

Similarly with Wells, I think he is a solid back of the rotation starter or maybe a solid middle reliever, but I'm not buying his early success this season.  He's an extreme flyball pitcher who doesn't strike out that many.  It's a recipe for giving up tons of homers, which he's done.  The early ERA this year isn't backed by his peripherals.  A back of the rotation guy out of the 15th round is still a good developmental outcome by the Twins/Orioles, but again, not a huge building block either.

As for the guys that are still with the Twins org, I give the new regime a lot of credit for turning Jax into a good late innings reliever.  It's a pretty good outcome for a 3rd round pick.  I think Balazovic still has a good shot at being a good reliever as well, so that would also be a pretty good outcome.

Kirilloff and Miranda still have the potential to make or break the draft.  I still have faith in Kirilloff becoming a really good major league hitter, but it's still up in the air.

On Miranda, I'm worried that we're seeing the return of the pre-2021 version.  He's making plenty of contact but just so much weak contact.  I don't know what happened to all the hard contact from the last two years, but I hope it comes back because he's not going to keep his bat in the lineup with his defense.

If one of those two goes on to have a couple of borderline All-star level seasons, then I don't think it's hard to call it a pretty successful draft.  If both do, then I might even say great draft.  Right now it still feels too early.

 

[2wins87]

2 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Whether the Twins should have protected the two that got away needs more info. Who were the players kept that took the spots they would have gotten? What were the teams needs at the time? Then you always have to wonder if the player got some instruction that helped that the Twins would not of given them.

At the time, Baddoo had missed most of 2019 after TJ, and then I'm not sure what kind of instruction he got in 2020 covid year.  I don't think he was in St. Paul but maybe got some extended spring training.  His last level was high-A.

Wells had missed all of 2019 with TJ, and then pitched only in St. Paul in 2020.  His last level was AA and he was 26 when the Orioles took him in the draft.

I don't think we even need to know who else was protected to know that neither seemed like a must protect prior to the rule-5 draft.  It was an entirely retrospective argument, and the decision doesn't even look that bad now that we have a couple years of major league track record for Wells and Baddoo.

Some guys that were protected that year IIRC: Kirilloff, Rooker, Celestino, Balazovic

[Seth Stohs]

Sean Poppen has had some moments, and some saves, in the big leagues. Caleb Hamilton getting to the big leagues is a major success. Balazovic will still get there. 

The draft also includes Matt Wallner and Brent Rooker who didn't sign (Wallner out of HS, Rooker after his third college season). Obviously good decisions by both. But getting this much talent to the big leagues shows a terrific eye for talent. 

I think most of us still believe that Kirilloff and Miranda are important pieces to the future, and Jax should be a reliable high-leverage arm for them for 3-4 more years, maybe longer. 

[gunnarthor]

I liked this draft a lot at the time and it was pretty good. Another good pick that didn't work out was Tyler Benninghoff in the 11th round. He ended up with serious arm injuries but it was the type of risky pick teams should take when they have some cap money.

Kiriloff is obviously the star (if he can stay healthy) but the other great thing about this draft was how young these guys were when we drafted them. Kiriloff, Baddoo, Rorvedt and Balozvic were 17. Baddoo at 24 has amassed more WAR than Larnich has at age 26. Draft young, toolsy players.

[Doctor Wu]

I recall a lot of people on this board being fans of Tyler Wells a few years ago, and weren't happy when the Twins left him unprotected.  And indeed, that was a bigger loss, I think, than Baddoo. Speaking of whom, there is a rather funny/painful video of Baddoo being caught stealing in yesterday's Tiger's game. Ouch!

[HrbieFan]

One helluva draft! Has the chance to be one of the best 

[MABB1959]

Seems a flaw the Twins have is drafting injury prone players 

[Brandon]

On 5/9/2023 at 5:35 AM, Doctor Wu said:

I recall a lot of people on this board being fans of Tyler Wells a few years ago, and weren't happy when the Twins left him unprotected.  And indeed, that was a bigger loss, I think, than Baddoo. Speaking of whom, there is a rather funny/painful video of Baddoo being caught stealing in yesterday's Tiger's game. Ouch!

Tyler Wells was in AA and looked about ready for an opportunity at the time of his injury.  He was forgotten by many on this site I think he was viewed as a back of the rotation starter with a chance to be a number 3 starter.  I think he would have benefited from the Twins push on added velocity as he throws 94.  We had many prospects back then and he was easily lost in the numbers.  Losing Badoo was a big surprise no one saw coming.  He was the type of player you leave unprotected.  I think Detroit was so bad and had no farm system that they figured they could protect him for the season on their bench and stash him in the minors the following season.