Joe Ryan Has Developed Into a Strike-Throwing Machine

[jkcarew]

All mlb pitchers can fill the strike zone. Most lack the guts to do it. When you pitch that way, your going to give up some hard contact, and occasionally you’re going to get clobbered.

The rest of the time, you’re going to be eating innings, saving the bullpen, and giving the club a chance to win today’s game and tomorrow’s game.

[dxpavelka]

The biggest thing holding Ryan back from reaching his fullest potential is his reluctance to go back to the Tim Lincecum hair.

 

[Cody Christie]

Joe Ryan is in his second full season with the Twins and continues to evolve as a starting pitcher. He's been a strike-throwing machine this season, so let's dive into the changes he's made so far in 2023.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Joe Ryan was always an intriguing pitching prospect because he has never fit the profile of a typical pitcher. His unique fastball has been discussed at length since joining the Twins organization, and that's what made him so successful in the minors. He releases the ball at a three-quarters arm angle, which can mess with how batters view the expected pitch. One of Ryan's most important focuses was developing his secondary pitches because he wouldn't reach his ceiling throwing fastballs over 60% of the time. Here's a look at his early season changes in 2023. 

Some of Ryan's early season success is tied to the high strike rate he has been able to accumulate in the season's first month. Inside Edge pointed out that he has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 78% of opposing batters this season. For reference, the league average is 65%. He has been ahead or even in the count in 111 out of 143 plate appearances this year (78%). Ryan is holding batters to a .342 SLG when he is ahead in the count with 27 strikeouts in 64 at-bats. 

One reason for Ryan's early season success has been a dramatic change in his pitch mix. During the 2022 season, he threw his fastball over 60% of the time while also relying on his slider (17.8%), changeup (12.1%), curveball (7.2%), and sweeper (2.8%). In 2023, he's using his fastball less than 60% of the time for the first time in his career, and his slider usage has dropped to 5.5%. His most significant increase in pitch usage has been a pitch that Baseball Savant categorizes as a split-finger (27.5%) and a sweeper (9.2%). 

His slider is getting hit the hardest (.625 SLG), up 85 points compared to last season. He has held batters to a .170 SLG or lower against his split-finger and sweeper. Seven of his eight extra-base hits have come against his fastball, but that is expected with how regularly he throws the pitch. Last season, his fastball was the only pitch with a negative run value for the season (-21 runs), and that total ranked among baseball's best. During the 2023 season, his fastball (-6 runs) and splitter (-5 runs) are both providing negative run value. It will be interesting to track those pitches throughout the season since he currently throws them over 85% of the time.

Ryan's improvements this year have helped him post an extreme chase rate that will be tough to maintain for an entire season. Last year, his chase rate ranked in the 33rd percentile among MLB pitchers. To begin 2023, his chase rate ranks in the 96th percentile. There is some hope that his new pitching repertoire will help him continue to get batters to chase pitches, but there will also likely be some regression to his career mark.

Unfortunately, not everything is positive for Ryan. He is giving up a lot of hard contact with a Hard Hit % that ranks in the 23rd percentile. He does a tremendous job at hitting his spots but has below-league-average velocity. Hitters can make solid contact on the occasions when his location fails to be perfect. He has given up a lot of ground balls this season, which puts extra pressure on the defense. The Twins' infield defense has ranked poorly to start the season, and he will likely see a few more ground balls find holes behind him in the coming weeks. 

What have been your impressions of Joe Ryan so far this season? Can he continue to pitch this well? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

View full article

[Linus]

The split change has been a nice add. I’ve seen several good ones to both right and left handed hitters. 

[jmlease1]

19 minutes ago, Linus said:

The split change has been a nice add. I’ve seen several good ones to both right and left handed hitters. 

agreed. If he can settle on a breaking ball that works for him he'll be in pretty good shape. He still seems to be searching for the right one between the curve, slider, and sweeper and hasn't figured out which it is. Maybe the sweeper is it?

[JD-TWINS]

When I watch, it seems his key to success is his ability to throw to spots with his fastball (not surprising), especially up in the zone.

His outward demeanor is great for a young pitcher. In control. He seems to be a good “pitcher” without necessarily having the best stuff. Lots to like with Ryan!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

No, I don’t think the Twins have developed Joe Ryan into something he wasn’t already. He has always been a strike thrower, if you want to look at walks per nine. Back to his Rays days and before that in college. 

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/188203/

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

No, I don’t think the Twins have developed Joe Ryan into something he wasn’t already. He has always been a strike thrower, if you want to look at walks per nine. Back to his Rays days and before that in college. 

https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/player/188203/

Agreed on the strike-thrower point, he has toggled year to year between 14% bb-k and 27% and he’s currently in the 14% range in the very small sample that he’s done several times in the minors.

I think he’s done a better job expanding the bottom of the zone, getting righties to swing at down and away more frequently. His bb-k rate is on the better end of his career, but the GB rate .65 vs historic under .4 is way up and hr/fb and slugging are way down. The slugging part might creep up as more GBs squirt into the outfield, but thus far a ton of weak contact.

2021 31% swings at down and away to righties

2022 46% swings down and away

this year 58%!

He already has 92 pitches down and away this year, vs 430 all of last year, and getting more swings

with great weak contact 21 percentile in average exit velo. Terry Ryan and Bert Blyleven would be proud!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

great resource!!

[Blyleven2011]

Ryan went to driveline over the winter and worked with them there ...

He wants to have a career  and be better at what he does  ...

The results are very encouraging , he has won against  better teams this year...