Twins Trade Bait

[BBWriterMan]

If the Twins are truly "sellers" as July's trade dealine approaches, who do we think could be dealt? The obvious one is Justin Morneau, perhaps followed closely by Josh Willingham.

 

Other than that, I think Jamey Carroll could appeal to other teams, and Ryan Doumit as well. It seems the Twins could have a glut of options for the starting rotation soon (Gibson, DeVries, Deduno), but I don't see other teams having significant interest in anyone.

 

Here's a post I recently did at Rant Sports.com on the topic. Any feedback is welcome.

 

Link: MLB: Five Minnesota Twins That Could Be Traded

[Badsmerf]

Depends on how guys perform. If Pelfrey keeps improving I could see him being dealt, Perkins, Burton... It is all about what teams are looking for. We really wont know what the market is until around that time.

[jctwins]

Considering Mauer's need for days off to stay in the lineup, and his team-friendly/fair contract, Doumit is likely off the table, and probably should be.

[70charger]

Considering Mauer's need for days off to stay in the lineup, and his team-friendly/fair contract, Doumit is likely off the table, and probably should be.

 

Unless there's someone in the high minors we can plug in to replace him. I understand Chris Herrmann hasn't been hitting much, but Josmil Pinto is doing very well in AA. And depending on what Doumit brings back, dare I bring the heresy that is suggesting Drew Butera? Depends on the trade haul, obviously.

 

If Doumit brings enough in trade to make it worth a few wins in the future (when we won't be deadline sellers), then maybe an extra loss or two due to Drew Butera post-July 2013 isn't all that bad?

[TheLeviathan]

This thread is a good reminder that a lot of us feared Willy's decline from last year and so far it's not looking good for him to be anywhere near the value he was.

[diehardtwinsfan]

With Hammer, it depends on what was offered for him last year. I doubt anyone wanted to pay much for that very reason...

 

My short list of potential trades:

 

Morneau

Hammer

Doumit

Carol

Perkins (though I think this one is more logically an extension)

Burton

 

If the Twins are .500, trading off these pieces for help in 2014/15 makes a lot more sense. The record will dive, but that will do nothing but improve draft stock next year too.

 

If Morneau hit a few more HRs, I see him fetching something nice. Willingham needs to get the average up to do the same. Perkins would get something nice, though I'd argue it would make more sense to extend him.

[Mike Sixel]

This thread is a good reminder that a lot of us feared Willy's decline from last year and so far it's not looking good for him to be anywhere near the value he was.

 

 

When rebuilding, sell high.....like with Revere.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This thread is a good reminder that a lot of us feared Willy's decline from last year and so far it's not looking good for him to be anywhere near the value he was.

 

Eh, hard to say. He ended April with a .944 OPS before absolutely collapsing in May. Two weeks ago, he looked just like the 2012 version of Josh Willingham. Then in May, he looked like Aaron Hicks at the plate and Oswaldo Arcia in the field.

 

Time will tell if he recovers. His OPS is still close to .800.

[TheLeviathan]

Eh, hard to say. He ended April with a .944 OPS before absolutely collapsing in May. Two weeks ago, he looked just like the 2012 version of Josh Willingham. Then in May, he looked like Aaron Hicks at the plate and Oswaldo Arcia in the field.

 

Time will tell if he recovers. His OPS is still close to .800.

 

didnt mean to imply I was writing him off....just how tenuous his grasp is on that level of value he had last year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

didnt mean to imply I was writing him off....just how tenuous his grasp is on that level of value he had last year.

 

Oh, I know. I'm just suggesting that it's hard to say whether his value will drop, raise, or stay the same. There's still a lot of baseball to be played before trade season revs up.

 

If Josh is anywhere close to his 2012 numbers (let's say an .850 OPS), his value will actually be higher this season. Less contract left, better track record of health and production.

 

And with the weather heating up, it's not unreasonable to expect him to hit a few more dingers through June and part of July.

 

Or he could break his face on a pitching machine tomorrow. Anything is possible.

[spideyo]

Considering Mauer's need for days off to stay in the lineup, and his team-friendly/fair contract, Doumit is likely off the table, and probably should be.

 

Need for days off? He's played in 36 of 37 games, and caught 25 of them. That seems pretty darn good. Really, over the last few weeks Doumit has practically been a once a week player and late inning pinch hitter. I honestly think that he won't be happy with that if it continued all season. They'd be wise keeping him if he is ok with the role he has, but my money would be on him as the first Twin to ask for a trade.

 

 

What about Parmelee as trade bait? I know he wouldn't get a huge haul, but if they are seriously considering re-signing Morneau, Parmelee is already getting squeezed for time in the outfield and we got more outfielders knocking on the door, and would likely be more valuable to a team with fewer lefthanded bats and options at 1b.

[LaBombo]

Oh, I know. I'm just suggesting that it's hard to say whether his value will drop, raise, or stay the same. There's still a lot of baseball to be played before trade season revs up.

 

Yeah, at the moment it's too early to sort out Willingham's possible regression from a career 2012 (expected), possible early decline (unexpected and unlikely), and the statistical noise of a what is likely a typical slump.

 

Good point about some of the upward-trending trade value factors. Then there are some of the other variables, like market supply and demand at the deadline and the constantly fluctuating values that a given Willi 'buyer' and competing sellers place on the prospects that potential Willi buyers may offer.

 

But as much of a crapshoot as it looks like even without the fluctuation in his 2013 stat line, the factors you point out do seem to be in the Twins' favor.

 

Then again, Willingham may be staying put, especially if the Twins (+1 run differential) are nipping at the Tigers' (+60, #1 in MLB) heels at the deadline...

[TheLeviathan]

If Josh is anywhere close to his 2012 numbers (let's say an .850 OPS), his value will actually be higher this season. Less contract left, better track record of health and production.

 

I'd just point out his OPS at the time of the trade season was closer to .950+ and he was on a tear. I'm not ruling out another summer binge by him, but last year was a career year. The question, in my mind, was always how far he'd fall off, not if he would at all.

 

So far, his at-bats are not all the reassuring. I hope that trend changes, I think his trade value is an enormous part of our team's future. (And, for the record, I like Willingham as a player. Just wrong age and position)

[Shane Wahl]

I actually think that Doumit and Carroll are the most likely first. Then Willingham. Then Morneau (seriously, I think TR and co. REALLY don't want to part ways with him). Doumit will fit somewhere in the AL and Carroll in the NL (Atlanta, perhaps). Willingham and Morneau are next. Burton might be another. GOOD GOD let's hope that Correia is still legit at the deadline.

 

If the Twins could get some 100-300 top prospects for these guys it would be a very good thing.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I actually expect Parmalee to go first--this assumes that Arcia continues to hit well. If Arcia stays in the everyday lineup, no reason to keep Parmalee and Morneau. Morneau will bring less cause he is older and always one concussion from retirement. Parmalee has huge upside and maybe could bring a good MI or a number 2/3 starter. The Hammer's trade value dropped the day the Twins extended his contract last year. He is on the downside of his career (past 30) and cant play decent defense. Doumit will stay to back up Mauer.

[Shane Wahl]

Parmelee has limited upside and is bad this year so far. I would like for him to do well in order to be trade bait, indeed.

[Guest USAFChief]

I would be pretty surprised if the Twins traded any starters at the deadline, unless they totally tank between now and then.

[Brodin4Calder]

Morneaus not going anywhere unless the Twins are absolutely blown away. I talked to Crasnick the other day and asked him about that and heres what he said:

 

Jerry Crasnick (12:35 PM)

 

 

 

Andrew, Would the Twins consider trading him? Probably not, unless they're blown away. They're big on continuity and the team dynamic in Minnesota, and they still see Morneau as a big part of that organization.

[Kwak]

Perkins is by far the most valuable to a trade partner--but his contract is guaranteed through 2015, with a buyout option ($300K) for 2016. Perk's establishing himself as the #1 lh rp in the AL--and his agent knows this! The liklihood of Perkins extending is low--top LH pitchers (closers especially) are rare and their value is huge. Assuming Perkins continues his performance trajectory, the Twins wouldn't be in a position to outbid the top teams--nor should they! Keep Perkins around for 1-1/2 to 2-1/2 years? Sure, unless there is a super-sweet offer. I am convinced that offer will emerge in that time-frame.

[spideyo]

I would be pretty surprised if the Twins traded any starters at the deadline, unless they totally tank between now and then.

 

At this point though, Carroll isn't a starter, and at least over the last few weeks Parmelee and Doumit haven't been regular starters either. It's hard to know for sure who will be starting in two months.

 

Oh wait, did you mean starting pitchers? Well, i guess there again it's hard to know who our starting pitchers will be in two months

[Kwak]

Morneaus not going anywhere unless the Twins are absolutely blown away. I talked to Crasnick the other day and asked him about that and heres what he said:

 

Jerry Crasnick (12:35 PM)

 

 

 

Andrew, Would the Twins consider trading him? Probably not, unless they're blown away. They're big on continuity and the team dynamic in Minnesota, and they still see Morneau as a big part of that organization.

 

The twins have a "no collision" policy in effect for Morneau, (maybe Mauer too?). I suspect that there is no insurance coverage for "concussion issues"--and that would make any trade "testy".

[Brodin4Calder]

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[Guest USAFChief]

At this point though, Carroll isn't a starter, and at least over the last few weeks Parmelee and Doumit haven't been regular starters either. It's hard to know for sure who will be starting in two months.

 

Oh wait, did you mean starting pitchers? Well, i guess there again it's hard to know who our starting pitchers will be in two months

No, I meant starting position players: Willingham and Morneau to be specific.

 

Carroll I could see, maybe Doumit but I'd be surprised at that, too. If either of Pelfrey or Corriea have any sort of value at the dealine, I guess I could see that.

 

I don't think they're going to dismantle what little they have to draw fans into TF, particularly when they're not stretched for payroll. I don't see it as a likely Ryan tactic. If they're 20 games out, attendance has already tanked and media coverage/fan sentiment is already really negative, maybe that changes. Maybe.

[joeboo_22]

Carroll's value depends on how many AB's he has when traded, I don't believe a team will want to trade him and then have to bench him so his option goes into effect.

 

Parmelee has no trade value, but I don't know if he is someone the Twins really want to dump, look at Garrett Jones, and you see Parmelee but Parmelee is a better OFer and a better overall hitter. So I think the Twins will wait and see, he could be the 1B of the future.

 

Morneau and Willingham have value but they are guys who you have to be careful when trading because trading them because it won't look good at the fan base, because they are both fan favorites.

 

Perkins and Burton? I'm all for trading relievers but they are cheap, under contract for a while, Perkins is a big fan favorite, so I'd say I doubt they would trade either of them.

 

So who gets traded? Maybe a starter or 2. They won't trade Corriea, though they should. Pelfry would probably be traded if an offer is decent. Maybe they pull the trigger if someone wants a DeVries or a Deduno. My guess is though if someone gets traded its in the bullpen. Every year someone over pays for a bullpen guy and the Twins have a few. Duensing struggled today but will have value if he continues to perform. Others in the pen as well. Looking at AAA the bullpen is the only real spot that somewhat has performed. So if 2-3 guys are traded they have some guys that could come up.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Bookmarking the lyrics to the Lollypop Guild for future reference.

[kab21]

I don't understand this desire to trade every veteran on the team. they should be looking at trading guys that can bring back 1-2 top 100 prospects but that list is pretty short. Like limited to Perkins and Willingham. Maybe burton could bring back a top 200 prospect but it would take a desperate team to give up more than that.

 

Morneau isn't going anywhere unless this hot streak continues. He's a fan favorite and you don't trade these kind of guys w/o bringing back some solid prospects. I actually think the Twins are leaning towards working out some kind of deal in the offseason.

 

Carroll is basically a salary dump. The prospect will be less significant than Pedro Hernandez.

 

Doumit could play himself into marginal trade value but he's not good enough defensively to catch for a playoff team and he's not enough of a hitter to DH. basically he's a versatile bench option on a good team.

 

I don't know how anyone can think that Parmelee has any trade value. The only type of player that you are picking up is an older no upside player like Doumit.

[cmathewson]

I could see Doumit if Pinto keeps killing it and Hermann starts to hit a bit better. That reminds me, i could also see Butters going.

 

I don't see Carroll as much as some. He's a pretty valuable player/coach for the young infielders. Dozier especially needs time in the cage and days off to clear his head these days. Not too many bench players are actually an upgrade over the guy they replace.

 

Normally, I'd expect Wilingham to be traded at the deadline, except he is such a perfect fit for this team and ballpark, it is hard to imagine them getting comparable value in return.

 

Morneau is the least likely, imho, based on what both Ryan and Antony have said. Namely, they not only want to keep him, but sign him to an extension if he has a healthy year with average production for him. Now that he's staying on the ball better, I think that's pretty likely.

[Thrylos]

 

My short list of potential trades:

 

 

Perkins (though I think this one is more logically an extension)

 

Perkins would get something nice, though I'd argue it would make more sense to extend him.

 

ummm

they did they did...

[spideyo]

So I think the Twins will wait and see, he could be the 1B of the future.

 

I guess that depends on if you think Mauer will still be the primary catcher in three years. If he will eventually be moved, than HE might be the 1b of the future. Of course, Sano might get sent across the diamond too eventually, and if you had to choose, wouldn't you take Sano over Parmelee for 1b in the future?

 

 

 

I think at this point, the Twins brain trust want to win games and put butts in seats NOW. Following that Philosophy, I don't think they would trade any fan favorites who are actually producing to their capability. If the current trends continue, I see Carroll, Doumit and Parmelee being the most likely to get moved simply because they have the capacity to be everyday players, but the Twins don't really have a place for them to be everyday guys. They won't pull much on their own, but I could see them being part of a package deal, maybe with one of our seeming abundance of long reliever/#6 starter types.

[Danchat]

I see less and less reasons to trade Morneau... he's one of the few guys the fans even know. He's pretty key for the lineup. Not sure if anyone wants to pay him $15M. The Hammer needs to get out of his slump and have a great summer if we want to get any value. However, I can see Perkins or Burton going. They are both pitching really well and maybe we could snub a team to give up a decent prospect-(capps for ramos anyone?)